Estimating tree-based dynamic treatment regimes using observational data with restricted treatment sequences

A dynamic treatment regime (DTR) is a sequence of decision rules that provide guidance on how to treat individuals based on their static and time-varying status. Existing observational data are often used to generate hypotheses about effective DTRs. A common challenge with observational data, however, is the need for analysts to consider “restrictions” on the treatment sequences. Such restrictions may be necessary for settings where (1) one or more treatment sequences that were offered to individuals when the data were collected are no longer considered viable in practice, (2) specific treatment sequences are no longer available, or (3) the scientific focus of the analysis concerns a specific type of treatment sequences (eg, “stepped-up” treatments). To address this challenge, we propose a restricted tree–based reinforcement learning (RT-RL) method that searches for an interpretable DTR with the maximum expected outcome, given a (set of) user-specified restriction(s), which specifies treatment options (at each stage) that ought not to be considered as part of the estimated tree-based DTR. In simulations, we evaluate the performance of RT-RL versus the standard approach of ignoring the partial data for individuals not following the (set of) restriction(s). The method is illustrated using an observational data set to estimate a two-stage stepped-up DTR for guiding the level of care placement for adolescents with substance use disorder.     

Use of inexpensive pressure transducers for measuring water levels in wells

Frequent measurement of below ground water levels at multiple locations is an important component of many wetland ecosystem studies. These measurements, however, are usually time consuming, labor intensive, and expensive. This paper describes a water-level sensor that is inexpensive and easy to construct. The sensor is placed below the expected low water level in a shallow well and, when connected to a datalogger, uses a pressure transducer to detect groundwater or surface water elevations. Details of pressure transducer theory, sensor construction, calibration, and examples of field installations are presented. Although the transducers must be individually calibrated, the sensors have a linear response to changing water levels (r ² .999). Measurement errors resulting from temperature fluctuations are shown to be about 4 cm over a 35°C temperature range, but are minimal when the sensors are installed in groundwater wells where temperatures are less variable. Greater accuracy may be obtained by incorporating water temperature data into the initial calibration (0.14 cm error over a 35C temperature range). Examples of the utility of these sensors in studies of groundwater/surface water interactions and the effects of water level fluctuations on tree growth are provided.     

大兴安岭北部地区原始林火干扰历史的研究

在大兴安岭阿龙山林业局的一个集水区,通过样地法（９６个样地）,调查了大量的火疤木,研究了景观水平上的火状况。结果表明,由１８２５至１９９３年间样区共发生１４次火灾,火烧种类主要是地表火,但也有少量树冠火;火烧强度主要为弱度火;火场面积通常很大;火烧平均间隔期为３７ａ,火烧轮回期的约３０ａ。这些指标对大于大兴安岭北部林区有一定的代表意义。大兴安岭北部林区的火状况主要决定于兴安落叶松的抗火特性和森林群     

Intraspecific variation of spectral sensitivity in threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from different photic regimes

To examine the influence of the spectral characteristics of underwater light on spectral sensitivity of the ON and OFF visual pathways, compound action potential recordings were made from retinal ganglion cells of threespine stickleback from different photic regimes. In fish from a red-shifted photic regime (P₅₀ 680 nm for downwelling light at 1m), peak sensitivity of both the ON and OFF pathways was limited to long wavelength light (_max 600–620). In contrast, the ON pathway of fish from a comparatively blue-shifted (P₅₀ 566 nm) photic regime exhibited sensitivity to medium (_max 540–560) and long (_max 600 nm) wavelengths, while the OFF pathway exhibited peak sensitivity to only medium (_max 540 nm) wavelength light. In a third population, where the the ambient light is moderately red-shifted (P₅₀ 629 nm), the ON pathway once again exhibited only a long wavelength sensitivity peak at 620 nm, while the OFF pathway exhibited sensitivity to both medium (_max 560 nm) and long (_max 600–620 nm) wavelength light. These findings suggest that the photic environment plays an integral role in shaping spectral sensitivity of the ON and OFF pathways.     

Forest development in canopy gaps in old-growth beech (Nothofagus) forests,New Zealand

Abstract. Tree size and age structures, treefall and canopy gap characteristics, and regeneration responses to treefalls were compared for three stands of old-growth beech (Nothofagus) forest dominated by N. fusca and N. menziesii on the South Island, New Zealand. Treefall gaps (up to 1000 m²) were most often caused by standing trees killed by drought and/or insect attack, or by trees snapped by wind. The causes of gap formation and the size and age distributions of treefall gaps varied between localities because of spatial and temporal differences in the histories of disturbance. At Fergies Bush where drought-related dieback had produced many large gaps with standing dead trees, gaps were generally young. Conversely, at Station Creek, small, old gaps formed by bolesnap dominated the disturbance regime. At Rough Creek, gaps of all ages and sizes were found along with an almost complete fern cover, and abundant shrubs and occasional subcanopy hardwood trees. Although overall patterns of regeneration were unrelated to differences in gap size, the relative abundance of N. fusca and N. menziesii varied between localities according to the seemingly minor differences in forest structure and disturbance history described above. Interpretations of regeneration response to gap parameters, therefore, need to account for differences in disturbance history between sites. Differences in the disturbance history between localities will also influence rates of gap closure, and because closure rates are used to estimate forest turnover times, meaningful comparisons of disturbance regimes for different forest types can only be made if this intersite variability is addressed.     

生态系统的多稳态与突变

许多生态系统可能在短时间内发生难以预料的状态突变, 其中一些生态系统突变的机理可以用多稳态理论进行解释。近年来生态系统的多稳态和突变现象及其机理吸引了研究者和管理者的广泛关注。本文重点对生态系统多稳态的理论基础、识别方法及稳态转换发生的早期预警信号进行综述, 并基于典型生态系统过程对现实世界中可能观测到的稳态转换进行实例分析, 最后对多稳态概念框架和理论应用中的潜在争议进行讨论, 以期为非线性生态系统动态的理论研究、管理实践和生物多样性保护等提供参考。     

沉积物记录揭示的深圳湾红树林生态系统稳态转变

稳态转换作为滨海生态系统的一种灾变现象,其过程伴随着生态系统质量下降和功能退化。深圳湾位于粤港澳大湾区的核心区域,深入理解其生态系统演化过程是进行适应性管理的重要前提。2014年于深圳湾福田红树林湿地获得4根岩芯沉积柱,通过分析沉积和生物地球化学指标（包括金属元素、营养盐、粒度和有机质指标）,重建半个世纪以来深圳湾环境的历史变迁,揭示其生态系统发生的稳态转变过程。结果表明：稳态转换发生前（1954-1980）,福田红树林沉积物中重金属、无机营养和有机物含量稳定增加,但处于较低水平;稳态转换发生后（1990-2014）,深圳湾中污染输入增加,沉积物中重金属和营养盐含量发生明显变化,深圳湾生态系统质量持续下降。通过揭示深圳湾生态系统演变过程及其稳态转变的发生规律,为粤港澳大湾区生态系统修复和管理提供重要的理论依据和参考。     

Mass loss and nutrient release during the decomposition of sixteen types of plant litter with contrasting quality under three precipitation regimes

Mass loss and nutrient release during litter decomposition drive biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. However, the relationship between the litter decomposition process and the decomposition stage, precipitation, and litter quality has rarely been addressed, precluding our understanding of how litter decomposition regulates nutrient cycling in various ecosystems and their responses to climate change. In this study, we measured mass loss as well as carbon and nutrient releases during the decomposition of 16 types of leaf litter under three precipitation treatments over 12 months in a common garden experiment (i.e., using standardized soil and climatic conditions). Sixteen types of leaves were divided into three functional groups (evergreen, deciduous, and herbaceous). The objectives were to understand the effects of decomposition stages and precipitation regimes on litter decomposition and to examine the relationship between this effect and chemical properties. The mass loss and release of nitrogen and potassium were significantly higher in the 6‐ to 12‐month stage of decomposition (high temperature and humidity) than in the 0‐ to 6‐month stage. Phosphorus was relatively enriched in evergreen leaves after 6 months of decomposition. The rates of mass loss and nutrient release were significantly greater in herbaceous than in deciduous and evergreen leaves. Increasing precipitation from 400 to 800 mm accelerated mass loss and potassium release but decreased phosphorus release in the 0‐ to 6‐month stage of decomposition. These results highlighted the contribution to and complexity of litter chemical properties in litter decomposition.     

Wildfires in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania: Burned areas,underlying causes and management challenges

The Eastern Arc Mountains are one of the most important ecosystems that conserve biodiversity in the world. These ecosystems are threatened by the increasing occurrence of wildfires. Nevertheless, there is inadequate information useful for the development of effective strategies to prevent or respond to future fires. This paper analyses the current extent of dry season fires, underlying causes and the effectiveness of the fire management strategy being implemented in and around the Uluguru Nature Forest Reserve (UNFR) between 2016 and 2021. Differenced Normalised Burn Ratio derived from Landsat satellite images was applied to determine the extent of burned areas, and focus group discussions were held to determine the underlying causes of fires and the extent of implementation of fire management strategies. About 2% (472 ha) of reserved UNFR and 5% (2,854 ha) of unreserved forests were burned in 2017. Some of the fires impacted on 60% (370 ha) of the grassy Lukwangule plateau, which is home to a fire‐sensitive endemic species. The underlying causes of fires varied spatially across the mountains but generally, fire escaping from farm preparation and hunting activities were found to be the most prevalent. On average, survey participants perceived that fire management strategy objectives were achieved by only 29% mainly constrained by a shortage of financial and human resources. Our findings suggest that ignitions and fire spread in UNFR could be prevented or controlled through sustainable funding of fire management activities and the effective engagement of local communities in the management of the reserve.