Assessment of vulnerability to climate change using a multi-criteria outranking approach with application to heat stress in Sydney

Climate change vulnerability assessment is a complex form of risk assessment which accounts for both geophysical and socio-economic components of risk. In indicator-based vulnerability assessment (IBVA), indicators are used to rank the vulnerabilities of socio-ecological systems (SESs). The predominant aggregation approach in the literature, sometimes based on multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), typically builds a global-scale, utility function based on weighted summation, to generate rankings. However, the corresponding requirement for additive independence and complete knowledge of system interactions by analyst are rarely if ever satisfied in IBVA.We build an analogy between the structures of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and IBVA problems and show that a set of techniques called Outranking Methods, developed in MCDA to deal with criteria incommensurability, data uncertainty and preference imprecision, offer IBVA a sound alternative to additive or multiplicative aggregation. We reformulate IBVA problems within an outranking framework, define thresholds of difference and use an outranking method, ELECTRE III, to assess the relative vulnerability to heat stress of 15 local government areas in metropolitan Sydney. We find that the ranking outcomes are robust and argue that an outranking approach is better suited for assessments characterized by a mix of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative indicators, threshold effects and uncertainties about the exact relationships between indicators and vulnerability.     

Power and limitation of soil properties as predictors of variation in peak plant biomass in a northern mixed-grass prairie

Soil properties are thought to affect annual plant productivity in rangelands, and thus soil variables that are consistently correlated with plant biomass may be general indicators of rangeland health. Here we measured several soil properties (e.g. aggregate stability, organic carbon, total nitrogen) and tested each as a would-be predictor of local variation in peak aboveground grassland biomass. Individual properties explained a slight (≤10%) amount of variation in plant biomass. Plant biomass was mainly (negatively) associated with two soil properties, subsurface soil carbonate concentration and the stability of soil macroaggregates near the soil surface. Less important predictive variables included: elevation, plant community composition, surface soil organic carbon, and soil carbon:nitrogen. Plot-to-plot variation in plant biomass is seemingly difficult to predict based on soil properties, including popular indicators of soil and rangeland health and even root biomass. While protection of soil is critical to overall rangeland ecosystem function, our findings suggest that the relationship between soil properties and plant biomass in natural grasslands is complex. Thus, there may not be one or even several soil properties that consistently predict appreciable variation in peak grassland biomass, especially variation within an ecosystem independent of precipitation.     

The impact and effectiveness of faculty development program in fostering the faculty’s knowledge,skills, and professional competence: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundFaculty vitality is the main ingredient to enhance professional education and competence. Enriching the faculty vitality in key domains of teaching, assessing, research, professionalism, and administration is perceived to improve educational environment significantly and enhances the academic performance of learners. Faculty development program (FDP) has been considered as a stand-alone educational pedagogy in fostering knowledge and professional skills of faculty. However, few studies have provided objective reports about the impact of such programs in a healthcare system.MethodsThis research was conducted by selecting data sources of PubMed-Medline, Wiley online library, Cochrane library, Taylor & Francis Online, CINAHL, Springer link, Proquest, ISI Web of knowledge, ScienceDirect, EJS, EBSCO, Blackwell, Emerald and ABI Inform. This search followed a step-wise approach defined by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). A total of 37 studies that explored the impact of FDPs on medical and allied health faculty’s professional development were selected.ResultsThis meta-analysis reported a mean effect size of 0.73 that reflects a significant and positive impact of FDPs in enhancing faculty’s knowledge and professional competence (z-statistics of 4.46 significant at p-value < 0.05) using the random effects model and forest plot.ConclusionThis article reiterates the incorporation of FDPs in all healthcare institutions for improving the academic performance of faculty with resultant enrichment of learners’ knowledge and skills.     

Physiological mechanisms and movement analysis in Parkinson's disease

We present new ideas about motor control in the human central nervous system and about pathophysiological mechanisms of Parkinson's disease, and we describe the Posturo-Locomotion-Manual (PLM) method, which is a new technique utilizing optoelectronic camera recording for objective, fully quantitative, and standardized assessment of human motor performance. In the PLM test, recordings of body movements are made during a simple motor task, where the subject repeatedly moves a small object from its starting position on the floor to a shelf located at chin height a few steps forward. The duration of the postural (raising up), locomotor and the goal-directed manual phase of the forward directed body movement is automatically calculated by a small computer as well as the degree of coordination (simultaneity) of these phases. The technique has high resolution and has been used for clinical assessment of motor performance, drug testing, and so on, in neurological and geriatric practice.     

Acoustic assessment of the number of pelagic fish in Lake Kinneret,Israel

The pelagic fish stock (mostly lavnun, Mirogrex terraesanctae) of Lake Kinneret was assessed using HADAS, a newly developed echo-counting analysis system. Total fish numbers (during Mar–Apr) were estimated to be 61 million in 1987, 218 million in 1988, 120 million in 1989, and 69 million in April 1990. The total fish number for March 1981 was recalculated from published data and estimated at 170 million. The decline in total numbers between 1988 and 1990 resulted primarily from a decrease in the relative abundance of the smallest size classes of fish. Since fish abundance apparently declined between 1981 and 1990, the decline in zooplankton standing stocks documented during these years cannot be attributed to higher fish predation caused by larger fish stocks. The HADAS estimates of lavnun population size are large enough to account for the known catch of lavnun.Contribution from Israel Oceanographic & Limnological Research, Ltd. This research was supported in part by the Israeli Water Commissioner, the Israeli Electric Company, and by a grant from the U.S. Agency for International Development.     

A Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment of Organochlorine Pesticide Residues Associated with Aquatic Organisms from the Rangsit Agricultural Area,Central Thailand

Food consumption is one of the main routes of human exposure to organochlorine pesticide residues (OCPRs). To assess the potential health risks associated with OCPRs contaminants due to freshwater organism consumption, a number of vegetables, prawn, snail, and fish were collected from Khlong 7 (canal), Rangsit agricultural area, Pathum-Thani Province, Thailand. The samples were extracted using a multiresidue extraction method and then analyzed by gas chromatography with microelectron capture detector (μ -ECD). The results show that low concentrations of OCPRs were detected in parts per billion (ppb) levels. Based on a plausible worst-case scenario, the local population could be at risk for cancer due to consumption of fish contaminated by α -, β -HCH, heptachlor, heptachlor epoxide, aldrin, dieldrin, DDD, DDE, and DDT. Likewise, individuals may be at risk from consumption of Lanchester's freshwater prawn Macrobrachium lanchesteri, freshwater snail Filopaludina mertensi, swamp morning-glory Ipomomea aquatica, neptunia Neptunia oleracea, and water lily Nymphaea lotus because these species all contained elevated concentrations of α -, β -HCH, heptachlor, heptachlor epoxide, aldrin, and dieldrin.     

A new index to sort estuarine sediments according to their contaminant content

When dealing with potentially contaminated regions, simple tools are needed to identify in a fast and first approach the areas of the highest concern. In this work we propose a new, intuitive, easy-to-use and versatile tool to accomplish this task. This tool comprises the calculation of a new cumulative index, the Normalised-and-Weighted Average Concentration (NWAC) and its visualisation on a map of the area investigated using a colour based code. The NWAC is a cumulative index that is calculated for each sample using the concentration of freely selected contaminants present in that sample. The NWACs can be used to sort samples in a scale from 0 to 10 according to their contaminant content. A colour-based visualisation of the NWACs on a map facilitates an easy identification of the areas of higher concern within the studied region. The methodology has been exemplified in a case study, for example, the estuary of the Nerbioi-Ibaizabal River (Bilbao, Basque Country) using a representative set of sediments and their metals and metalloids content. The NWAC values obtained have been compared to the corresponding values of mERMq, another cumulative index of general acceptance and frequently used to estimate the toxicity of sediments, with comparable results.     

Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metal Soil Pollution: A Case Study in the Qixia Mining Area,China

In recent years, heavy metal pollution accidents have occurred in many regions of China, and the public has become increasingly concerned about its health. Based on a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency model and using Monte Carlo simulation techniques, this article presents a procedure for health risk assessment of heavy metal pollution. A case study was conducted in the Qixia lead and zinc mining area. Based on the magnitude of heavy metal contamination in the mine factory, vicinal Qixia scenic site and village, the potential health risk calculated for a lifetime of exposure (through ingestion and dermal contact) was determined as the cumulative carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk for workers, tourists, and local residents (including children and adults), respectively. The risk assessment indicated that the carcinogenic risk is not significant. However, Pb poses a significant cumulative non-carcinogenic risk, which tends to be serious for workers. Additionally, local children are more vulnerable than adults to the risks associated with heavy metal contamination. Accordingly, risk alleviation and preventive measures should be taken, especially for children and workers.     

Methylation changes at NR3C1 in newborns associate with maternal prenatal stress exposure and newborn birth weight

Early life experiences, including those in utero, have been linked to increased risk for adult-onset chronic disease. The underlying assumption is that there is a critical period of developmental plasticity in utero when selection of the fetal phenotype that is best adapted to the intrauterine environment occurs. The current study is the first to test the idea that extreme maternal psychosocial stressors, as observed in the Democratic Republic of Congo, may modify locus-specific epigenetic marks in the newborn resulting in altered health outcomes. Here we show a significant correlation between culturally relevant measures of maternal prenatal stress, newborn birth weight and newborn methylation in the promoter of the glucocorticoid receptor NR3C1. Increased methylation may constrain plasticity in subsequent gene expression and restrict the range of stress adaptation responses possible in affected individuals, thus increasing their risk for adult-onset diseases.