The projected effects of climatic and vegetation changes on the distribution and diversity of Southeast Asian bats

Southeast‐Asia (SEA) constitutes a global biodiversity hotspot, but is exposed to extensive deforestation and faces numerous threats to its biodiversity. Climate change represents a major challenge to the survival and viability of species, and the potential consequences must be assessed to allow for mitigation. We project the effects of several climate change scenarios on bat diversity, and predict changes in range size for 171 bat species throughout SEA. We predict decreases in species richness in all areas with high species richness (>80 species) at 2050–2080, using bioclimatic IPCC scenarios A2 (a severe scenario, continuously increasing human population size, regional changes in economic growth) and B1 (the ‘greenest’ scenario, global population peaking mid‐century). We also predicted changes in species richness in scenarios that project vegetation changes in addition to climate change up to 2050. At 2050 and 2080, A2 and B1 scenarios incorporating changes in climatic factors predicted that 3–9% species would lose all currently suitable niche space. When considering total extents of species distribution in SEA (including possible range expansions), 2–6% of species may have no suitable niche space in 2050–2080. When potential vegetation and climate changes were combined only 1% of species showed no changes in their predicted ranges by 2050. Although some species are projected to expand ranges, this may be ecologically impossible due to potential barriers to dispersal, especially for species with poor dispersal ability. Only 1–13% of species showed no projected reductions in their current range under bioclimatic scenarios. An effective way to facilitate range shift for dispersal‐limited species is to improve landscape connectivity. If current trends in environmental change continue and species cannot expand their ranges into new areas, then the majority of bat species in SEA may show decreases in range size and increased extinction risk within the next century.     

Consequences of warming up a hotspot: species range shifts within a centre of bee diversity

Aim Bees are the most important pollinators of flowering plants and essential ecological keystone species contributing to the integrity of most terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we examine the potential impact of climate change on bees’ geographic range in a global biodiversity hotspot. Location South Africa with a focus on the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) diversity hotspot. Methods  Geographic ranges of 12 South African bee species representing dominant distribution types were studied, and the climate change impacts upon bees were examined with A2 and B2 climate scenarios of HadCM3 model, using MaxEnt for species distribution modelling. Results The predicted levels of climate change‐induced impacts on species ranges varied from little shifts and range expansion of 5–50% for two species to substantial range contractions between 32% and 99% in another six species. Four species show considerable range shifts. Bees of the winter rainfall area in the west of South Africa generally have smaller range sizes than in the summer rainfall area and generally show eastward range contractions toward the dry interior. Bee species prevalent in summer rainfall regions show a tendency for a south‐easterly shift in geographic range. Main conclusions The bee fauna of the CFR is identified as the most vulnerable to climate change due to the high level of endemism, the small range sizes and the island‐like isolation of the Mediterranean‐type climate region at the SW tip of Africa. For monitoring climate change impact on bees, we suggest to establish observatories in the coastal plains of the west coast that are predicted to be worst affected and areas where persistence of populations is most likely. Likely impacts of climate change on life history traits of bees (phenology, sociality, bee‐host plant synchronization) are discussed but require further investigation.     

Phylogeography of the Cape velvet worm (Onychophora: Peripatopsis capensis) reveals the impact of Pliocene/Pleistocene climatic oscillations on Afromontane forest in the Western Cape, South Africa

Habitat specialists such as soft-bodied invertebrates characterized by low dispersal capability and sensitivity to dehydration can be employed to examine biome histories. In this study, the Cape velvet worm (Peripatopsis capensis) was used to examine the impacts of climatic oscillations on historical Afromontane forest in the Western Cape, South Africa. Divergence time estimates suggest that the P. capensis species complex diverged during the Pliocene epoch. This period was characterized by dramatic climatic and topographical change. Subsequently, forest expansion and contraction cycles led to diversification within P. capensis. Increased levels of genetic differentiation were observed along a west-to-south-easterly trajectory because the south-eastern parts of the Cape Fold Mountain chain harbour larger, more stable fragments of forest patches, have more pronounced habitat heterogeneity and have historically received higher levels of rainfall. These results suggest the presence of three putative species within P. capensis, which are geographically discreet and genetically distinct.     

Where do adaptive shifts occur during invasion? A multidisciplinary approach to unravelling cold adaptation in a tropical ant species invading the Mediterranean area

Evolution may improve the invasiveness of populations, but it often remains unclear whether key adaptation events occur after introduction into the recipient habitat (i.e. post‐introduction adaptation scenario), or before introduction within the native range (i.e. prior‐adaptation scenario) or at a primary site of invasion (i.e. bridgehead scenario). We used a multidisciplinary approach to determine which of these three scenarios underlies the invasion of the tropical ant Wasmannia auropunctata in a Mediterranean region (i.e. Israel). Species distribution models (SDM), phylogeographical analyses at a broad geographical scale and laboratory experiments on appropriate native and invasive populations indicated that Israeli populations followed an invasion scenario in which adaptation to cold occurred at the southern limit of the native range before dispersal to Israel. We discuss the usefulness of combining SDM, genetic and experimental approaches for unambiguous determination of eco‐evolutionary invasion scenarios.     

Modelling relationships between species spatial abundance patterns and climate

Aim To move towards modelling spatial abundance patterns and to evaluate the relative impacts of climatic change upon species abundances as opposed to range extents. Location Southern Africa, including Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe. Methods Quantitative response surface models were fitted for 78 bird species, mostly endemic (68) or near‐endemic to the region, to model relationships between species reporting rates (i.e. the proportion of checklists reporting a species for a particular grid cell), as recorded by the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, and four bioclimatic variables derived from climatic data for the period 1961–90. With caution, reporting rates can be used as a proxy for abundance. Models were used to project potential impacts of a series of projected climatic change scenarios upon species abundance patterns and range extents. Results Most models obtained were robust with good predictive power. Projections of potential future abundance patterns indicate that the magnitude of impacts upon a proxy for abundance are greater than those upon range extent for the majority of species (82% by 2071–2100). For most species (74%) both abundance and range extent are projected to decrease by 2100. Impacts are especially severe if species are unable to realize projected range changes; when only the area of a species' simulated present range is considered, overall abundance decreases of more than 80% are projected for 19 (24%) of species examined. Main conclusions Our results indicate that projected climatic changes are likely to elicit greater relative changes in species abundances than range extents. For most species examined changes were decreases, suggesting the impacts upon biodiversity are likely generally to be negative. These results also suggest that previous estimates of the proportion of species at increased risk of extinction as a result of climatic change may, in some cases, be under‐estimates.     

水土流失治理新范式:基于流域过程模拟和情景分析的方法

随着土壤侵蚀问题的日益突出,水土流失治理逐渐成为实现区域可持续发展的当务之急.通过在试验小流域实施治理措施并评价其效益是水土流失治理的传统范式,但这种范式存在试验周期长、可重复性差、资金和人工技术投入大、推广性差等局限性,已不能适应当前水土流失治理的需要.近年来兴起的基于流域过程模拟的情景分析方法在定量模拟流域过程对地理变量响应的基础上,通过评价不同治理措施的环境、生态和经济效益,探索能够协调经济发展与环境保护关系的水土流失治理措施.该方法能够在无需大范围工程实施和实地观测的情况下对各种治理措施的效益进行评价,花费少,灵活性强,在水土流失治理措施的决策制定中具有较大优势.本文详细阐述以情景分析方式作为水土流失治理新范式的基本思路,通过实例分析,演示新范式在治理流域水土流失中的应用,并展望新范式在流域治理中的未来发展趋势.     

北方农牧交错区农业生态系统生产力对气候波动的响应——以准格尔旗为例

气候变化对区域生态系统结构和功能有重大影响。以中国北方农牧交错区的准格尔旗为例,利用气象和《统计年鉴》数据,采用数理统计方法分析准格尔旗1961—2009年降水量、平均气温的波动特征,计算出该地区1961—2009年农业生态系统NPP值和主要农作物的气候产量,论述了准格尔旗农业生态系统生产力对气候波动的响应。结果表明:(1)降水量和平均气温的年际、年内波动均显著。(2)准格尔旗农业生态系统生产力呈现阶段性地波动上升趋势。排除社会、科技等影响,气候生产力对气候波动表现出较强的敏感性,是作物气候生态适应的结果。(3)中国北方雨养旱作区,粮食气候产量受降水量年际波动(特别是7、8月)显著影响;谷子、糜黍、玉米、薯类、大豆和油料等农作物的气候产量与降水量年际波动呈显著正相关;谷子、糜黍的气候产量与生长季降水量年内波动呈显著负相关。集水型生态农业是北方农牧交错区生态环境友好的农业发展模式。(4)谷子、糜黍、薯类、大豆和油料等农作物的气候产量与6、7、8月平均气温年际波动呈显著负相关;生长季平均气温年内波动对谷子、糜黍、大豆和油料等农作物的气候产量有显著负面影响。因此,需要综合采取工程、生物和农业措施,将气候变化对主要农作物气候产量的不利影响降到最低。     

气候变暖对东北玉米低温冷害分布规律的影响

利用东北地区48个农气站1961-2010年气象资料和近20多年玉米生育期资料,建立生育阶段热量指数和冷害指数,分析气候变暖对东北玉米4个生育阶段热量及低温冷害分布格局的影响。结果表明:热量指数总体表现为明显的增加趋势;平均温度、热量指数的年代际变化特征明显,中晚、晚熟区的上升趋势均小于早、中熟区;冷害频率总体表现为明显的减小趋势;气候变暖对两个熟型区域4个生育阶段的冷害影响并不一致,早、中熟区的冷害平均频率最大值均出现在20世纪60年代,中晚、晚熟区的冷害平均频率最大值均出现在70年代,两个熟型区域的最小值均出现在21世纪初。研究结果可为未来东北地区调整玉米种植制度和生产布局,为适应气候变化和趋利避害提供科学依据。     

南北样带温带区栎属树种种子化学组成与气候因子的关系

选取南北样带温带区8个核心分布区的7种优势栎属树种作为对象,通过检测种子的化学组成,包括淀粉、蛋白质、油脂、可溶性总糖、单宁和脯氨酸,分析其化学组成与气候因子之间的关系,结果发现:在气候因子中,温度是影响种子化学组成的主要因素,日照时数次之,而降水没有明显影响.在南北样带温带区,随纬度的增加,温度降低,年日照时数增加,生长积温减少,生长季缩短,淀粉含量积累下降,并趋向于水解为可溶性糖类;同时,从南到北,为适应低温的环境条件,栎属树种通过增加种子蛋白质、可溶性总糖和脯氨酸的含量,以提高种子的抗寒性.栎属树种种子的化学组成之间存在一定的相互关系,可溶性总糖、蛋白质和脯氨酸之间呈正相关关系,它们三者与淀粉均为负相关,种子化学组成之间的这种相互关系是植物对环境适应的生态策略.     

Allelic diversity associated with aridity gradient in wild emmer wheat populations

The association between allelic diversity and ecogeographical variables was studied in natural populations of wild emmer wheat [ Triticum turgidum ssp. dicoccoides (Körn.) Thell.], the tetraploid progenitor of cultivated wheat. Patterns of allelic diversity in 54 microsatellite loci were analyzed in a collection of 145 wild emmer wheat accessions representing 25 populations that were sampled across naturally occurring aridity gradient in Israel and surrounding regions. The obtained results revealed that 56% of the genetic variation resided among accessions within populations, while only 44% of the variation resided between populations. An unweighted pair-group method analysis (UPGMA) tree constructed based on the microsatellite allelic diversity divided the 25 populations into six major groups. Several groups were comprised of populations that were collected in ecologically similar but geographically remote habitats. Furthermore, genetic differentiation between populations was independent of the geographical distances. An interesting evolutionary phenomenon is highlighted by the unimodal relationship between allelic diversity and annual rainfall ( r  = 0.74, P  < 0.0002), indicating higher allelic diversity in populations originated from habitats with intermediate environmental stress (i.e. rainfall 350–550 mm year⁻¹). These results show for the first time that the 'intermediate-disturbance hypothesis', explaining biological diversity at the ecosystem level, also dominates the genetic diversity within a single species, the lowest hierarchical element of the biological diversity.