Global ecological niche conservatism and evolution in Olea species

Background and AimsClimate is an important parameter in delimiting coarse-grained aspects of fundamental ecological niches of species; evolution of these niches has been considered a key component in biological diversification. We assessed phylogenetic niche conservatism and evolution in 24 species of the family Oleaceae in relation to temperature and precipitation variables. We studied niches of 17 Olea species and 7 species from other genera of Oleaceae globally.MethodsWe used nuclear ribosomal and plastid DNA to reconstruct an evolutionary tree for the family. We used an approach designed specifically to incorporate uncertainty and incomplete knowledge of species’ ecological niche limits. We performed parsimony- and likelihood-based reconstructions of ancestral states on two independent phylogenetic hypotheses for the family. After detailed analysis, species’ niches were classified into warm and cold niches, wet and dry niches, and broad and narrow niches.Key ResultsGiven that full estimates of fundamental niches are difficult, we explore the alternative approach of explicit incorporation of knowledge of gaps in the information available, which allows avoidance of overestimation of amounts of evolutionary change. The result is a first synthetic view of evolutionary dynamics of ecological niches and distributional potential in a widespread plant family. Temperate regions of the Earth were occupied only by lineages that could derive with cold and dry niches; Southeast Asia held species with warm and wet niches; and parts of Africa held only species with dry niches.ConclusionsHigh temperature in Lutetian (Oligocene) and low temperature in Rupelian (Eocene) with major desertification events play important role for niche retraction and expansion in the history for Oleaceae clades. Associations between environmental niche characteristics and phylogeny reconstruction play an important role in understanding ecological niche conservatism, the overall picture was relatively slow or conservative niche evolution in this group.     

Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Radial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed growth increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented climate variability could lead to non-stationarity, that is, a decoupling of tree growth responses from climate over time, potentially inducing biases in climate reconstructions and forest growth projections. Little is known about whether and to what extent environmental conditions, species, and model type and resolution affect the occurrence and magnitude of non-stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers of non-stationarity, we compiled tree-ring width chronologies of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, and mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites across the Europe including the distribution margins of these species as well as moderate sites. We calibrated four numerical models (linear vs. non-linear, daily vs. monthly resolution) to simulate growth chronologies based on temperature and soil moisture data. Climate–growth models were tested in independent verification periods to quantify their non-stationarity, which was assessed based on bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The degree of non-stationarity varied between species, site climatic conditions, and models. Chronologies of P. sylvestris showed stronger non-stationarity compared with Picea abies stands with a high degree of stationarity. Sites with mixed climatic signals were most affected by non-stationarity compared with sites sampled at cold and dry species distribution margins. Moreover, linear models with daily resolution exhibited greater non-stationarity compared with monthly-resolved non-linear models. We conclude that non-stationarity in climate–growth responses is a multifactorial phenomenon driven by the interaction of site climatic conditions, tree species, and methodological features of the modeling approach. Given the existence of multiple drivers and the frequent occurrence of non-stationarity, we recommend that temporal non-stationarity rather than stationarity should be considered as the baseline model of climate–growth response for temperate forests.     

Heat tolerance of marine ectotherms in a warming Antarctica

Global warming is affecting the Antarctic continent in complex ways. Because Antarctic organisms are specialized to living in the cold, they are vulnerable to increasing temperatures, although quantitative analyses of this issue are currently lacking. Here we compiled a total of 184 estimates of heat tolerance belonging to 39 marine species and quantified how survival is affected concomitantly by the intensity and duration of thermal stress. Species exhibit thermal limits displaced toward colder temperatures, with contrasting strategies between arthropods and fish that exhibit low tolerance to acute heat challenges, and brachiopods, echinoderms, and molluscs that tend to be more sensitive to chronic exposure. These differences might be associated with mobility. A dynamic mortality model suggests that Antarctic organisms already encounter temperatures that might be physiologically stressful and indicate that these ecological communities are indeed vulnerable to ongoing rising temperatures.     

Pan-Arctic soil moisture control on tundra carbon sequestration and plant productivity

Long-term atmospheric CO₂ concentration records have suggested a reduction in the positive effect of warming on high-latitude carbon uptake since the 1990s. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the reduced net carbon sink of northern ecosystems with increased air temperature, including water stress on vegetation and increased respiration over recent decades. However, the lack of consistent long-term carbon flux and in situ soil moisture data has severely limited our ability to identify the mechanisms responsible for the recent reduced carbon sink strength. In this study, we used a record of nearly 100 site-years of eddy covariance data from 11 continuous permafrost tundra sites distributed across the circumpolar Arctic to test the temperature (expressed as growing degree days, GDD) responses of gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and ecosystem respiration (ER) at different periods of the summer (early, peak, and late summer) including dominant tundra vegetation classes (graminoids and mosses, and shrubs). We further tested GPP, NEE, and ER relationships with soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit to identify potential moisture limitations on plant productivity and net carbon exchange. Our results show a decrease in GPP with rising GDD during the peak summer (July) for both vegetation classes, and a significant relationship between the peak summer GPP and soil moisture after statistically controlling for GDD in a partial correlation analysis. These results suggest that tundra ecosystems might not benefit from increased temperature as much as suggested by several terrestrial biosphere models, if decreased soil moisture limits the peak summer plant productivity, reducing the ability of these ecosystems to sequester carbon during the summer.     

Prediction of near-term climate change impacts on UK wheat quality and the potential for adaptation through plant breeding

Wheat is a major crop worldwide, mainly cultivated for human consumption and animal feed. Grain quality is paramount in determining its value and downstream use. While we know that climate change threatens global crop yields, a better understanding of impacts on wheat end-use quality is also critical. Combining quantitative genetics with climate model outputs, we investigated UK-wide trends in genotypic adaptation for wheat quality traits. In our approach, we augmented genomic prediction models with environmental characterisation of field trials to predict trait values and climate effects in historical field trial data between 2001 and 2020. Addition of environmental covariates, such as temperature and rainfall, successfully enabled prediction of genotype by environment interactions (G × E), and increased prediction accuracy of most traits for new genotypes in new year cross validation. We then extended predictions from these models to much larger numbers of simulated environments using climate scenarios projected under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 for 2050–2069. We found geographically varying climate change impacts on wheat quality due to contrasting associations between specific weather covariables and quality traits across the UK. Notably, negative impacts on quality traits were predicted in the East of the UK due to increased summer temperatures while the climate in the North and South-west may become more favourable with increased summer temperatures. Furthermore, by projecting 167,040 simulated future genotype–environment combinations, we found only limited potential for breeding to exploit predictable G × E to mitigate year-to-year environmental variability for most traits except Hagberg falling number. This suggests low adaptability of current UK wheat germplasm across future UK climates. More generally, approaches demonstrated here will be critical to enable adaptation of global crops to near-term climate change.     

Soils in warmer and less developed countries have less micronutrients globally

Soil micronutrients are capital for the delivery of ecosystem functioning and food provision worldwide. Yet, despite their importance, the global biogeography and ecological drivers of soil micronutrients remain virtually unknown, limiting our capacity to anticipate abrupt unexpected changes in soil micronutrients in the face of climate change. Here, we analyzed >1300 topsoil samples to examine the global distribution of six metallic micronutrients (Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, Co and Ni) across all continents, climates and vegetation types. We found that warmer arid and tropical ecosystems, present in the least developed countries, sustain the lowest contents of multiple soil micronutrients. We further provide evidence that temperature increases may potentially result in abrupt and simultaneous reductions in the content of multiple soil micronutrients when a temperature threshold of 12–14°C is crossed, which may be occurring on 3% of the planet over the next century. Altogether, our findings provide fundamental understanding of the global distribution of soil micronutrients, with direct implications for the maintenance of ecosystem functioning, rangeland management and food production in the warmest and poorest regions of the planet.     

Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming

Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial for adaptation planning in Europe. While new wine regions may emerge out of the traditional boundaries, most of the present-day renowned winemaking regions may be threatened by climate change. Here, we analyse the future evolution of the geography of wine production over Europe, through the definition of a novel climatic suitability indicator, which is calculated over the projected grapevine phenological phases to account for their possible contractions under global warming. Our approach consists in coupling six different de-biased downscaled climate projections under two different scenarios of global warming with four phenological models for different grapevine varieties. The resulting suitability indicator is based on fuzzy logic and is calculated over three main components measuring (i) the timing of the fruit physiological maturity, (ii) the risk of water stress and (iii) the risk of pests and diseases. The results demonstrate that the level of global warming largely determines the distribution of future wine regions. For a global temperature increase limited to 2°C above the pre-industrial level, the suitable areas over the traditional regions are reduced by about 4%/°C rise, while for higher levels of global warming, the rate of this loss increases up to 17%/°C. This is compensated by a gradual emergence of new wine regions out of the traditional boundaries. Moreover, we show that reallocating better-suited grapevine varieties to warmer conditions may be a viable adaptation measure to cope with the projected suitability loss over the traditional regions. However, the effectiveness of this strategy appears to decrease as the level of global warming increases. Overall, these findings suggest the existence of a safe limit below 2°C of global warming for the European winemaking sector, while adaptation might become far more challenging beyond this threshold.     

Nitrification,denitrification, and related functional genes under elevated CO2: A meta-analysis in terrestrial ecosystems

Global change may have profound effects on soil nitrogen (N) cycling that can induce positive feedback to climate change through increased nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions mediated by nitrification and denitrification. We conducted a meta-analysis of the effects of elevated CO₂ on nitrification and denitrification based on 879 observations from 58 publications and 46 independent elevated CO₂ experiments in terrestrial ecosystems. We investigated the effects of elevated CO₂ alone or combined with elevated temperature, increased precipitation, drought, and N addition. We assessed the response to elevated CO₂ of gross and potential nitrification, potential denitrification, and abundances of related functional genes (archaeal amoA, bacterial amoA, nirK, nirS, and nosZ). Elevated CO₂ increased potential nitrification (+28%) and the abundance of bacterial amoA functional gene (+62%) in cropland ecosystems. Elevated CO₂ increased potential denitrification when combined with N addition and higher precipitation (+116%). Elevated CO₂ also increased the abundance of nirK (+25%) and nirS (+27%) functional genes in terrestrial ecosystems and of nosZ (+32%) functional gene in cropland ecosystems. The increase in the abundance of nosZ under elevated CO₂ was larger at elevated temperature and high N (+62%). Four out of 14 two-way interactions tested between elevated CO₂ and elevated temperature, elevated CO₂ and increased precipitation, and elevated CO₂ and N addition were marginally significant and mostly synergistic. The effects of elevated CO₂ on potential nitrification and abundances of bacterial amoA and nirS functional genes increased with mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation. Our meta-analysis thus suggests that warming and increased precipitation in large areas of the world could reinforce positive responses of nitrification and denitrification to elevated CO₂ and urges the need for more investigations in the tropical zone and on interactive effects among multiple global change factors, as we may largely underestimate the effects of global change on soil N₂O emissions.     

Carryover effects from environmental change in early life: An overlooked driver of the amphibian extinction crisis?

Ecological carryover effects, or delayed effects of the environment on an organism's phenotype, are central predictors of individual fitness and a key issue in conservation biology. Climate change imposes increasingly variable environmental conditions that may be challenging to early life-history stages in animals with complex life histories, leading to detrimental physiological and fitness effects in later life. Yet, the latent nature of carryover effects, combined with the long temporal scales over which they can manifest, means that this phenomenon remains understudied and is often overlooked in short-term studies limited to single life-history stages. Herein, we review evidence for the physiological carryover effects induced by elevated ultraviolet radiation (UVR; 280–400 nm) as a potential contributor to recent amphibian population declines. UVR exposure causes a suite of molecular, cellular and physiological consequences known to underpin carryover effects in other taxa, but there is a lack of research linking embryonic and larval UVR exposures to fitness consequences post-metamorphosis in amphibians. We propose that the key impacts of UVR on disease-related amphibian declines are facilitated through carryover effects that bridge embryonic and larval UVR exposure with potential increased disease susceptibility post-metamorphosis. We conclude by identifying a practical direction for the study of ecological carryover effects in amphibians that could guide future ecological research in the broader field of conservation physiology. Only by addressing carryover effects can many of the mechanistic links between environmental change and population declines be elucidated.     

Reproductive collapse in European beech results from declining pollination efficiency in large trees

Climate warming increases tree mortality which will require sufficient reproduction to ensure population viability. However, the response of tree reproduction to climate change remains poorly understood. Warming can reduce synchrony and interannual variability of seed production (“masting breakdown”) which can increase seed predation and decrease pollination efficiency in trees. Here, using 40 years of observations of individual seed production in European beech (Fagus sylvatica), we showed that masting breakdown results in declining viable seed production over time, in contrast to the positive trend apparent in raw seed count data. Furthermore, tree size modulates the consequences of masting breakdown on viable seed production. While seed predation increased over time mainly in small trees, pollination efficiency disproportionately decreased in larger individuals. Consequently, fecundity declined over time across all size classes, but the overall effect was greatest in large trees. Our study showed that a fundamental biological relationship—correlation between tree size and viable seed production—has been reversed as the climate has warmed. That reversal has diverse consequences for forest dynamics; including for stand- and biogeographical-level dynamics of forest regeneration. The tree size effects suggest management options to increase forest resilience under changing climates.