Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities

Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.     

Estimating the accuracy of polymerase chain reaction-based tests using endpoint dilution

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based tests for various microorganisms or target DNA sequences are generally acknowledged to be highly "sensitive," yet the concept of sensitivity is ill-defined in the literature on these tests. We propose that sensitivity should be expressed as a function of the number of target DNA molecules in the sample (or specificity, when the target number is 0). However, estimating this "sensitivity curve" is problematic, since it is difficult to construct samples with a fixed number of targets. Nonetheless, using serially diluted replicate aliquots of a known concentration of the target DNA sequence, we show that it is possible to disentangle random variations in the number of target DNA molecules from the underlying test sensitivity. We develop parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric (spline-based) models for the sensitivity curve. The methods are compared on a new test for M. genitalium.     

Evolutionary and statistical properties of three genetic distances

Many genetic distances have been developed to summarize allele frequency differences between populations. I review the evolutionary and statistical properties of three popular genetic distances: DS, DA, and theta;, using computer simulation of two simple evolutionary histories: an isolation model of population divergence and an equilibrium migration model. The effect of effective population size, mutation rate, and mutation mechanism upon the parametric value between pairs of populations in these models explored, and the unique properties of each distance are described. The effect of these evolutionary parameters on study design is also investigated and similar results are found for each genetic distance in each model of evolution: large sample sizes are warranted when populations are relatively genetically similar; and loci with more alleles produce better estimates of genetic distance.     

Postnatal growth,age estimation and development of foraging behaviour in the fulvous fruit bat<Emphasis Type="Italic">Rousettus leschenaulti</Emphasis>

This study documents the postnatal growth, age estimation and development of the foraging behaviour of the fulvous fruit batRousettus leschenaulti under captive conditions. At birth, the young were naked and pink with closed eyes and folded pinnae. By day four of age, their eyes had opened and the pups began to move. The mean length of forearm in 5-day-old pups was 24.9 mm and body mass was 10.8 g, equivalent to 32.3% and 14.2% of the values from postpartum females. The length of forearm and body mass increased linearly until 45 and 50 days, respectively, and thereafter maintained an apparent stability. The epiphyseal gap of the fourth metacarpal-phalangeal joint increased until 15 days, then decreased linearly until 75 days and thereafter closed. Age was estimated quantitatively, based on linear changes observed in the length of the forearm and epiphyseal gap. Pups began to roost separately, but adjacent to their mothers when 30 days old and flew clumsily when they were about 40 days old. After attaining clumsy flight, the young bats made independent foraging attempts feebly by biting and licking small fruit pieces. Young bats were engaged in suckling as well as ingesting fruits when they were about 50 days old. Between 55 and 65 days, they flew well and fed on fruits. At the age of 75 days, the young bats were completely weaned and at two months, their foraging behaviour was similar to that of their mothers. There was no significant difference in the growth pattern of the young maintained in captivity compared with those under natural conditions.     

The Effect of Recombination on the Accuracy of Phylogeny Estimation

Phylogenetic studies based on DNA sequences typically ignore the potential occurrence of recombination, which may produce different alignment regions with different evolutionary histories. Traditional phylogenetic methods assume that a single history underlies the data. If recombination is present, can we expect the inferred phylogeny to represent any of the underlying evolutionary histories? We examined this question by applying traditional phylogenetic reconstruction methods to simulated recombinant sequence alignments. The effect of recombination on phylogeny estimation depended on the relatedness of the sequences involved in the recombinational event and on the extent of the different regions with different phylogenetic histories. Given the topologies examined here, when the recombinational event was ancient, or when recombination occurred between closely related taxa, one of the two phylogenies underlying the data was generally inferred. In this scenario, the evolutionary history corresponding to the majority of the positions in the alignment was generally recovered. Very different results were obtained when recombination occurred recently among divergent taxa. In this case, when the recombinational breakpoint divided the alignment in two regions of similar length, a phylogeny that was different from any of the true phylogenies underlying the data was inferred.     

A unified parametric regression model for recapture studies with random removals in continuous time

Conditional likelihood based on counting processes are combined with a Horvitz-Thompson estimator to yield a population size estimator that is more efficient than the existing ones. Random removals are allowed in the recapturing process. Simulation studies are shown to assess the performance of the proposed estimators. Examples on a bird banding and a small mammal recapturing study are given.     

Ranked set sampling for replicated sampling designs

In practical ecological sampling studies, a certain design (such as plot sampling or line-intercept sampling) is usually replicated more than once. For each replication, the Horvitz-Thompson estimation of the objective parameter is considered. Finally, an overall estimator is achieved by averaging the single Horvitz-Thompson estimators. Because the design replications are drawn independently and under the same conditions, the overall estimator is simply the sample mean of the Horvitz-Thompson estimators under simple random sampling. This procedure may be wisely improved by using ranked set sampling. Hence, we propose the replicated protocol under ranked set sampling, which gives rise to a more accurate estimation than the replicated protocol under simple random sampling.