Soils in warmer and less developed countries have less micronutrients globally

Soil micronutrients are capital for the delivery of ecosystem functioning and food provision worldwide. Yet, despite their importance, the global biogeography and ecological drivers of soil micronutrients remain virtually unknown, limiting our capacity to anticipate abrupt unexpected changes in soil micronutrients in the face of climate change. Here, we analyzed >1300 topsoil samples to examine the global distribution of six metallic micronutrients (Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, Co and Ni) across all continents, climates and vegetation types. We found that warmer arid and tropical ecosystems, present in the least developed countries, sustain the lowest contents of multiple soil micronutrients. We further provide evidence that temperature increases may potentially result in abrupt and simultaneous reductions in the content of multiple soil micronutrients when a temperature threshold of 12–14°C is crossed, which may be occurring on 3% of the planet over the next century. Altogether, our findings provide fundamental understanding of the global distribution of soil micronutrients, with direct implications for the maintenance of ecosystem functioning, rangeland management and food production in the warmest and poorest regions of the planet.     

Environmental DNA reveals a mismatch between diversity facets of Amazonian fishes in response to contrasting geographical,environmental and anthropogenic effects

Freshwater ecosystems are among the most endangered ecosystem in the world. Understanding how human activities affect these ecosystems requires disentangling and quantifying the contribution of the factors driving community assembly. While it has been largely studied in temperate freshwaters, tropical ecosystems remain challenging to study due to the high species richness and the lack of knowledge on species distribution. Here, the use of eDNA-based fish inventories combined to a community-level modelling approach allowed depicting of assembly rules and quantifying the relative contribution of geographic, environmental and anthropic factors to fish assembly. We then used the model predictions to map spatial biodiversity and assess the representativity of sites surveyed in French Guiana within the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) and highlighted areas that should host unique freshwater fish assemblages. We demonstrated a mismatch between the taxonomic and functional diversity. Taxonomic assemblages between but also within basins were mainly the results of dispersal limitation resulting from basin isolation and natural river barriers. Contrastingly, functional assemblages were ruled by environmental and anthropic factors. The regional mapping of fish diversity indicated that the sites surveyed within the EU WFD had a better representativity of the regional functional diversity than taxonomic diversity. Importantly, we also showed that the assemblages expected to be the most altered by anthropic factors were the most poorly represented in terms of functional diversity in the surveyed sites. The predictions of unique functional and taxonomic assemblages could, therefore, guide the establishment of new survey sites to increase fish diversity representativity and improve this monitoring program.     

Interactive effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation on birds across different climate zones: A mechanistic perspective

Climate change and urbanisation are among the most pervasive and rapidly growing threats to biodiversity worldwide. However, their impacts are usually considered in isolation, and interactions are rarely examined. Predicting species' responses to the combined effects of climate change and urbanisation, therefore, represents a pressing challenge in global change biology. Birds are important model taxa for exploring the impacts of both climate change and urbanisation, and their behaviour and physiology have been well studied in urban and non-urban systems. This understanding should allow interactive effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation to be inferred, yet considerations of these interactions are almost entirely lacking from empirical research. Here, we synthesise our current understanding of the potential mechanisms that could affect how species respond to the combined effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation, with a focus on avian taxa. We discuss potential interactive effects to motivate future in-depth research on this critically important, yet overlooked, aspect of global change biology. Increased temperatures are a pronounced consequence of both urbanisation (through the urban heat island effect) and climate change. The biological impact of this warming in urban and non-urban systems will likely differ in magnitude and direction when interacting with other factors that typically vary between these habitats, such as resource availability (e.g. water, food and microsites) and pollution levels. Furthermore, the nature of such interactions may differ for cities situated in different climate types, for example, tropical, arid, temperate, continental and polar. Within this article, we highlight the potential for interactive effects of climate and urban drivers on the mechanistic responses of birds, identify knowledge gaps and propose promising future research avenues. A deeper understanding of the behavioural and physiological mechanisms mediating species' responses to urbanisation and rising temperatures will provide novel insights into ecology and evolution under global change and may help better predict future population responses.     

Climate change disrupts core habitats of marine species

Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of >33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO₂ emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.     

Low species turnover of upland Amazonian birds in the absence of physical barriers

Aim

One of the oldest and most powerful ways for ecologists to explain distinct biological communities is to invoke underlying environmental differences. But in hyper-diverse systems, which often display high species richness and low species abundance, these sorts of community comparisons are especially challenging. The classic view for Amazonian birds posits that riverine barriers and habitat specialization determine local and regional community composition. We test the tacit, complementary assumption that similar bird communities should therefore permeate uniform habitat between major rivers, regardless of distance.

Location

Upland (terra firme) rainforests of central Amazonia.

Methods

We conducted intensive whole-community surveys of birds in three pairs of 100-ha plots, separated by 40–60 km. We then used dissimilarity indices, cluster analysis, and ordination to characterize differences among the six avian communities.

Results

In all, we detected 244 forest-dependent birds, with an average of 190 species (78%) per plot. Species turnover was negligible, no unique indicator species were found among plot pairs, and all documented species were already known from a complete inventory at one of the three sites.

Main Conclusions

Our study corroborates the classic biogeographical pattern and suggests that turnover contributes little to regional avian diversity within upland forests. Using a grain size of 100 ha, this implies that upland birds perceive the environment as uniform, at least over distances of ~60 km. Therefore, to maximize both local species richness and population persistence, our findings support the conservation of very large tracts of upland rainforest. Our analyses also revealed that the avifauna at Reserva Ducke, encroached by urban sprawl from the city of Manaus, shows the hallmarks of a disturbed community, with fewer vulnerable insectivores. This defaunation signals that even an enormous preserve (10 × 10 km) in lowland Amazonia is not insulated from anthropogenic degradation within the surrounding landscape.     

Evolutionary rescue under demographic and environmental stochasticity

Populations suffer two types of stochasticity: demographic stochasticity, from sampling error in offspring number, and environmental stochasticity, from temporal variation in the growth rate. By modelling evolution through phenotypic selection following an abrupt environmental change, we investigate how genetic and demographic dynamics, as well as effects on population survival of the genetic variance and of the strength of stabilizing selection, differ under the two types of stochasticity. We show that population survival probability declines sharply with stronger stabilizing selection under demographic stochasticity, but declines more continuously when environmental stochasticity is strengthened. However, the genetic variance that confers the highest population survival probability differs little under demographic and environmental stochasticity. Since the influence of demographic stochasticity is stronger when population size is smaller, a slow initial decline of genetic variance, which allows quicker evolution, is important for population persistence. In contrast, the influence of environmental stochasticity is population-size-independent, so higher initial fitness becomes important for survival under strong environmental stochasticity. The two types of stochasticity interact in a more than multiplicative way in reducing the population survival probability. Our work suggests the importance of explicitly distinguishing and measuring the forms of stochasticity during evolutionary rescue.     

A review of methods to trace material flows into final products in dynamic material flow analysis: From industry shipments in physical units to monetary input–output tables,Part 1

Dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) is widely used to model stock-flow dynamics. To appropriately represent material lifetimes, recycling potentials, and service provision, dMFA requires data about the allocation of economy-wide material consumption to different end-use products or sectors, that is, the different product stocks, in which material consumption accumulates. Previous estimates of this allocation only cover few years, countries, and product groups. Recently, several new methods for estimating end-use product allocation in dMFA were proposed, which so far lack systematic comparison. We review and systematize five methods for tracing material consumption into end-use products in inflow-driven dMFA and discuss their strengths and limitations. Widely used data on industry shipments in physical units have low spatio-temporal coverage, which limits their applicability across countries and years. Monetary input–output tables (MIOTs) are widely available and their economy-wide coverage makes them a valuable source to approximate material end-uses. We find four distinct MIOT-based methods: consumption-based, waste input–output MFA (WIO-MFA), Ghosh absorbing Markov chain, and partial Ghosh. We show that when applied to a given MIOT, the methods’ underlying input–output models yield the same results, with the exception of the partial Ghosh method, which involves simplifications. For practical applications, the MIOT system boundary must be aligned to those of dMFA, which involves the removal of service flows, sector (dis)aggregation, and re-defining specific intermediate outputs as final demand. Theoretically, WIO-MFA, applied to a modified MIOT, produces the most accurate results as it excludes massless and waste transactions. In part 2 of this work, we compare methods empirically and suggest improvements for aligning MIOT-dMFA system boundaries.     

Five fundamental ways in which complex food webs may spiral out of control

Theory suggests that increasingly long, negative feedback loops of many interacting species may destabilize food webs as complexity increases. Less attention has, however, been paid to the specific ways in which these ‘delayed negative feedbacks’ may affect the response of complex ecosystems to global environmental change. Here, we describe five fundamental ways in which these feedbacks might pave the way for abrupt, large-scale transitions and species losses. By combining topological and bioenergetic models, we then proceed by showing that the likelihood of such transitions increases with the number of interacting species and/or when the combined effects of stabilizing network patterns approach the minimum required for stable coexistence. Our findings thus shift the question from the classical question of what makes complex, unaltered ecosystems stable to whether the effects of, known and unknown, stabilizing food-web patterns are sufficient to prevent abrupt, large-scale transitions under global environmental change.     

The distribution of coastal fish eDNA sequences in the Anthropocene

Aim

Coastal fishes have a fundamental role in marine ecosystem functioning and contributions to people, but face increasing threats due to climate change, habitat degradation and overexploitation. The extent to which human pressures are impacting coastal fish biodiversity in comparison with geographic and environmental factors at large spatial scale is still under scrutiny. Here, we took advantage of environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding to investigate the relationship between fish biodiversity, including taxonomic and genetic components, and environmental but also socio-economic factors.

Location

Tropical, temperate and polar coastal areas.

Time period

Present day.

Major taxa studied

Marine fishes.

Methods

We analysed fish eDNA in 263 stations (samples) in 68 sites distributed across polar, temperate and tropical regions. We modelled the effect of environmental, geographic and socio-economic factors on α- and β-diversity. We then computed the partial effect of each factor on several fish biodiversity components using taxonomic molecular units (MOTU) and genetic sequences. We also investigated the relationship between fish genetic α- and β-diversity measured from our barcodes, and phylogenetic but also functional diversity.

Results

We show that fish eDNA MOTU and sequence α- and β-diversity have the strongest correlation with environmental factors on coastal ecosystems worldwide. However, our models also reveal a negative correlation between biodiversity and human dependence on marine ecosystems. In areas with high dependence, diversity of all fish, cryptobenthic fish and large fish MOTUs declined steeply. Finally, we show that a sequence diversity index, accounting for genetic distance between pairs of MOTUs, within and between communities, is a reliable proxy of phylogenetic and functional diversity.

Main conclusions

Together, our results demonstrate that short eDNA sequences can be used to assess climate and direct human impacts on marine biodiversity at large scale in the Anthropocene and can further be extended to investigate biodiversity in its phylogenetic and functional dimensions.