A genetic and spatial Bayesian analysis of mastitis resistance

A nationwide health card recording system for dairy cattle was introduced in Norway in 1975 (the Norwegian Cattle Health Services). The data base holds information on mastitis occurrences on an individual cow basis. A reduction in mastitis frequency across the population is desired, and for this purpose risk factors are investigated. In this paper a Bayesian proportional hazards model is used for modelling the time to first veterinary treatment of clinical mastitis, including both genetic and environmental covariates. Sire effects were modelled as shared random components, and veterinary district was included as an environmental effect with prior spatial smoothing. A non-informative smoothing prior was assumed for the baseline hazard, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) were used for inference. We propose a new measure of quality for sires, in terms of their posterior probability of being among the, say 10% best sires. The probability is an easily interpretable measure that can be directly used to rank sires. Estimating these complex probabilities is straightforward in an MCMC setting. The results indicate considerable differences between sires with regards to their daughters disease resistance. A regional effect was also discovered with the lowest risk of disease in the south-eastern parts of Norway.     

Models for Trypanosoma evansi (surra), its control and economic impact on small-hold livestock owners in the Philippines

Simple demographic and infectious disease models of buffaloes and other domestic hosts for animal trypanosomosis (surra) caused by Trypanosoma evansi were developed. The animal models contained deterministic and stochastic elements and were linked to simulate the benefit of control regimes for surra in village domestic animal populations in Mindanao, Philippines. The impact of the disease on host fertility and mortality were key factors in determining the economic losses and net-benefit from the control regimes. If using a high (99%) efficacy drug in surra-moderate to high risk areas, then treating all animals twice each year yielded low prevalence in 2 years; targeted treatment of clinically sick animals, constantly monitored (monthly), required 75% fewer treatments but took longer to reach a low prevalence than treating all animals twice each year. At high drug efficacy both of these treatment strategies increased the benefit over untreated animals by 81%. If drug efficacy declined then the benefit obtained from twice yearly treatment of all animals declined rapidly compared with regular monitoring and targeting treatment to clinically sick animals. The current control regimen applied in the Philippines of annual sero-testing for surra and only treating sero-positive animals provided the lowest net-benefit of all the control options simulated and would not be regarded as effective control. The total net-benefit from effective surra control for a typical village in a moderate/high risk area was 7.9 million pesos per annum (US $158,000). The value added to buffaloes, cattle, horses, goats/sheep and pigs as a result of this control was US $88, $84, $151, $7, $114 per animal/year, respectively.     

Correlation between the parameters of contingent negative variation and characteristics of variational pulsometry in Parkinsonian patients

In patients suffering from Parkinson's disease (PD), we analyzed correlations between the parameters of contingent negative variation (CNV) and data of variational pulsometry (according to the measurements of R-R ECG intervals). Studies were carried out on 35 patients (group PD), 49 to 74 years old, with the stage of disease of 1.5 to 3.0 according to the Hoehn-Yahr international classification. In the course of CNV recording (i.e., in the state of a certain functional loading), we observed significant negative correlations between the integral magnitude (area) of this potential and indices of variational pulsometry (RMSSD, SDNN, C. var, and HF) that characterize the intensity of parasympathetic (respiratory) influences on the cardiovascular system. In the control group, such correlations were absent. We found significant correlations between the autonomic balance, CNV magnitude, and stage of PD reflecting the level of generalization of the pathological process. In the subgroup of patients with the PD stage 1.5 to 2.0, significant changes in the mean values of indices of parasympathetic influences during recording of the CNV were not observed, while in another subgroup (the PD stage 2.5 to 3.0), these values increased significantly (P < 0.05 and P < 0.01). If the estimates of the PD stage were low, the CNV area demonstrated greater values (P < 0.01). The disturbance of coordination of muscle-to-muscle interactions in the PD group is, probably, an important factor responsible for parasympathetic dysregulation and suppression of the CNV generation. We found positive correlation between the intensity of parasympathetic influences in the course of CNV recording and the level of postural disorders (r = 0.37, P < 0.05). On the contrary, the CNV magnitude demonstrated a negative correlation with the intensity of these disorders (r = −0.36, P < 0.05), as well as with the level of postural instability (r = −0.55, P < 0.001). We hypothesize that alterations of the autonomic balance and the activity of those cerebral structures, which are responsible for the motor readiness, result, to a significant extent, from weakening of the activity of the noradrenergic system due to degenerative processes developing in cells of the locus coeruleus. The impairment of the latter structure, together with degeneration of neurons of the substantia nigra and a decrease in the level of nigro-striatal dopamine, underlies the pathomorphological pattern of PD. Neirofiziologiya/Neurophysiology, Vol. 40, No. 3, pp. 242–253, May–June, 2008.     

Field studies on the population dynamics of Biomphalaria glabrata, intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni on the West Indian Island of St. Lucia

Growth curves, calculated for field populations of B. glabrata, were not materially affected by habitat, altitude or season. A mean growth curve was therefore used to estimate the age-frequency distribution of snails in successive field samples. These data permitted the construction of ecological life tables and the estimation of r, the intrinsic rate of natural increase (or decrease) of the different populations. The calculated values of r were inserted in a simple model of unlimited population growth but the resultant curves poorly represented the observed data. A model for unlimited growth was more satisfactory for pond and marsh populations but, apparently, immigration made it less satisfactory for stream and banana drain populations. Nevertheless, r may still be of value in predicting repopulation rates in certain habitats after a mollusciciding which does not kill the entire snail population.     

Bayesian Quantile Regression for Longitudinal Studies with Nonignorable Missing Data

Summary .  We study quantile regression (QR) for longitudinal measurements with nonignorable intermittent missing data and dropout. Compared to conventional mean regression, quantile regression can characterize the entire conditional distribution of the outcome variable, and is more robust to outliers and misspecification of the error distribution. We account for the within-subject correlation by introducing a   ℓ₂   penalty in the usual QR check function to shrink the subject-specific intercepts and slopes toward the common population values. The informative missing data are assumed to be related to the longitudinal outcome process through the shared latent random effects. We assess the performance of the proposed method using simulation studies, and illustrate it with data from a pediatric AIDS clinical trial.     

Species co‐occurrence patterns and dietary resource competition in primates

Diamond (Assembly of species communities. In: Cody ML, Diamond JM, editors. Ecology and evolution of communities. Cambridge: Belknap. p 342–444 ( 1975 )) argued that interspecific competition between species occupying similar niches results in a nonrandom pattern of species distributions. In particular, some species pairs may never be found in the same community due to competitive exclusion. Rigorous analytical methods have been developed to investigate the possible role that interspecific competition has on the evolution of communities. Many studies that have implemented these methods have shown support for Diamond's assembly rules, yet there are numerous exceptions. We build on this previous research by examining the co‐occurrence patterns of primate species in 109 communities from across the world. We used EcoSim to calculate a checkerboard (C) score for each region. The C score provides a measure of the proportion of species pairs that do not co‐occur in a set of communities. High C scores indicate that species are nonrandomly distributed throughout a region, and interspecific competition may be driving patterns of competitive exclusion. We conducted two sets of analyses. One included all primate species per region, and the second analysis assigned each species to one of four dietary guilds: frugivores, folivores, insectivores, and frugivore‐insectivores. Using all species per region, we found significantly high C scores in 9 of 10 regions examined. For frugivores, we found significantly high‐C scores in more than 50% of regions. In contrast, only 23% of regions exhibited significantly high‐C scores for folivores. Our results suggest that communities are nonrandomly structured and may be the result of greater levels of interspecific competition between frugivores compared to folivores. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

A physiological analogy of the niche for projecting the potential distribution of plants

Aim  To develop a physiologically based model of the plant niche for use in species distribution modelling. Location  Europe. Methods  We link the Thornley transport resistance (TTR) model with functions which describe how the TTR’s model parameters are influenced by abiotic environmental factors. The TTR model considers how carbon and nutrient uptake, and the allocation of these assimilates, influence growth. We use indirect statistical methods to estimate the model parameters from a high resolution data set on tree distribution for 22 European tree species. Results  We infer, from distribution data and abiotic forcing data, the physiological niche dimensions of 22 European tree species. We found that the model fits were reasonable (AUC: 0.79–0.964). The projected distributions were characterized by a false positive rate of 0.19 and a false negative rate 0.12. The fitted models are used to generate projections of the environmental factors that limit the range boundaries of the study species. Main conclusions  We show that physiological models can be used to derive physiological niche dimensions from species distribution data. Future work should focus on including prior information on physiological rates into the parameter estimation process. Application of the TTR model to species distribution modelling suggests new avenues for establishing explicit links between distribution and physiology, and for generating hypotheses about how ecophysiological processes influence the distribution of plants.     

Rates of small-scale species mobility in alvar limestone grassland

Abstract. Small-scale species frequency and cumulative species frequency were studied in four plots in limestone grassland of the Veronica spicata-Avenula pratensis association on Stora Alvaret on the Baltic island of Öland, Sweden. Species mobility was expressed as increase in cumulative species frequency in 20 subplots of 100 cm². Observed cumulative frequencies from 1985–1989 in all four plots, and from 1985–1995 in one plot were compared with values following from two null models, a ‘minimal mobility’ model and a random mobility model. In ca. 50 % of the cases the observed cumulative frequency was not significantly different from the random expectation. However, in many such cases the mean annual frequency was either very high or very low. Three ways of calculating the mobility rate are presented though only one is used: (observed cumulative frequency -lowest annual frequency) / expected cumulative frequency. Values × 100 range from 0 to 100. There were slight differences between the four plots which were interpreted in terms of differences in grazing intensity and soil depth. It is stressed that the idea of the Carousel model has never been meant to suggest that all species would show random mobility, which we now quantify, but that species differ in their mobility rate and that the mean rate is much higher than generally realized.