Random walks and the gas model: spacing behaviour of Grey-Cheeked Mangabeys

1. Simple mechanical models (random walks and the 'gas model') were used to investigate the movement patterns and intergroup encounter rates of a high- and low-density subpopulation of Grey-Cheeked Mangabeys ( Cercocebus albigena johnstoni, Lydeker) at two sites in the Kibale Forest, Western Uganda.
2. Random walk simulations showed that the presence of conspecific groups could act as 'social barriers' which constrained group movements, and promoted high levels of site attachment to a specific home range area.
3. Encounter rate models showed that in the low-density subpopulation (Kanyawara), intergroup encounters occurred no more frequently than expected if groups were moving randomly and independently of each other. This was in contrast to previous analyses which suggested that Grey-Cheeked Mangabeys employed a social spacing mechanism (mediated by male loud calls) in order to reduce the frequency of encounter to below chance levels.
4. Encounters in the high-density subpopulation (Ngogo) were found to occur less frequently than expected at short range (within 100 m). This was suggested to be due to the operation of a territorial mate defence strategy by males at this site.     

Plant litter feedback and population dynamics in an annual plant,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Cardamine pensylvanica</Emphasis>

The presence of litter has the potential to alter the population dynamics of plants. In this paper, we explore the effects of litter on population dynamics using a simple experimental laboratory system with populations of the annual crucifer, Cardamine pensylvanica. Using a factorial experiment with four densities and three litter levels, we determined the effect of litter on biomass and plant fecundity, and the life stages responsible for these changes in yield. Although litter had significant effects on seed germination and on seedling survivorship, we show, using a population dynamics model, that these effects were not demographically significant. Rather, the potential effect of litter on population dynamics resulted almost entirely from its effect on biomass. Persistent litter suppressed plant biomass and apparently removed the direct density effect present in the absence of litter. Thus, litter changed the shape of the recruitment curve from slightly humped to asymptotic. In addition to changing the shape of the recruitment curve, litter reduced the carrying capacity of the populations. Thus, the population dynamics model indicated that not all statistically significant responses were dynamically significant. Given the potential complexity of litter effects, simple population models provide a powerful tool for understanding the potential consequences of short-term responses. Received: 8 September 1999 / Accepted: 5 April 2000     

A Comparison of Bone Mineral Density and Its Predictors in HIV-Infected and HIV-Uninfected Older Men

ObjectiveBone health in older individuals with HIV infection has not been well studied. This study aimed to compare bone mineral density (BMD), trabecular bone score (TBS), and bone markers between HIV-infected men and age- and body mass index (BMI)-matched HIV-uninfected men aged ≥60 years. We investigated the associations of risk factors related to fracture with BMD, TBS, and bone markers in HIV-infected men.MethodsThis cross-sectional study included 45 HIV-infected men receiving antiretroviral therapy and 42 HIV-uninfected men. Medical history, BMD and TBS measurements, and laboratory tests related to bone health were assessed in all the participants. HIV-related factors known to be associated with bone loss were assessed in the HIV-infected men.ResultsThe mean BMD, TBS, and osteopenia or osteoporosis prevalence were similar among the cases and controls. The HIV-infected men had significantly higher mean N-terminal propeptide of type 1 procollagen and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen levels. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated that low BMI (lumbar spine, P = .015; femoral neck, P = .018; and total hip, P = .005), high C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen concentration (total hip, P = .042; and TBS, P = .010), and low vitamin D supplementation (TBS, P = .035) were independently associated with low BMD and TBS.ConclusionIn older HIV-infected men with a low fracture risk, the mean BMD and TBS were similar to those of the age- and BMI-matched controls. The mean bone marker levels were higher in the HIV group. Traditional risk factors for fracture, including low BMI, high C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen level, and low vitamin D supplementation, were significant predictors of low BMD and TBS.     

Physical microhabitat requirements of freshwater pearl mussels,Margaritifera margaritifera (L.)

Surface sediment diatoms from the east coast of Lake Tanganyika were analysed using ordination and classification techniques, and compared with assemblages previously described from the northern part of the lake. Grain-size analyses were performed on subsamples. Four groups of diatom assemblages were recognised. The first group clusters samples taken in the north, far from the Rusizi river mouth. The second group comprises samples taken on silty sediment along the Tanzanian coast, including one sample taken near the mouth of the Malagarazi river and those from the northernmost part of the lake. The third group comprises surface sediments along the Burundian coast (near Ramba and Magara), and the fourth is characterised by epipsammic taxa. A sample taken near the central arm of the Malagarazi river is included in the latter group. The impact of small rivers on the diatom assemblages in the surface sediments is restricted to the mouth area.     

A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.