Some model based considerations on observing generation times for communicable diseases

The generation time of an infectious disease is usually defined as the time from the moment one person becomes infected until that person infects another person. The concept is similar to “generation gap” in demography, with new infections replacing births in a population. Originally applied to diseases such as measles where at least the first generations are clearly discernible, the concept has recently been extended to other diseases, such as influenza, where time order of infections is usually much less apparent.By formulating the relevant statistical questions within a simple yet basic mathematical model for infection spread, it is possible to derive theoretical properties of observations in various situations e.g. in “isolation”, in households, or during large outbreaks. In each case, it is shown that the sampling distribution of observations depends on a number of factors, usually not considered in the literature and that must be taken into account in order to achieve unbiased inference about the generation time distribution. Some implications of these findings for statistical inference methods in epidemic spread models are discussed.     

Paleoenvironmental conditions preceding the Messinian Salinity Crisis in the Central Mediterranean: Integrated data from the Upper Miocene Trave section (Italy)

Integrated data of calcareous plankton and benthic foraminifers from the pre-evaporitic interval of Trave section (Central Italy) allowed the reconstruction of surface and bottom-water conditions in the Central Mediterranean during the interval from 7.61 to 6.33 Ma, preceding the Messinian Salinity Crisis.Our data point out a three-step paleoenvironmental evolution. During the first stage (7.61-7.02 Ma) benthic foraminiferal assemblages depict stable, well-oxygenated and ventilated bottom-water conditions, while the surface water records variable temperature and high nutrient conditions, probably associated with strong seasonality. The second stage (7.02-6.70 Ma) points to unfavourable bottom-water condition, triggered by deep-sea stagnation. This is witnessed by a significant decrease in oxygen concentration and biotic diversity, and by the presence of stress-tolerant taxa. A general warming of the surface water and a strongly stratified water column, characterized by an expanded mixed layer, are also recorded.From 6.70 Ma onwards (third stage), a prominent change to more restricted, low-oxygenated, hypersaline conditions at the sea floor is testified by the total disappearance of deep-dwelling planktonic foraminifers and the increasing abundance of stress-tolerant species. Calcareous plankton reflects high instability of the surface water in terms of nutrients, temperature and salinity. During this stage the environmental deterioration reaches intermediate depths in the water column.The initial change toward a step-wise isolation of the Central Mediterranean bottom-waters is probably related to a general warming, responsible for a first slowing-down of the vertical circulation, favouring stratification of surface and intermediate waters and stagnation of bottom-waters. This warming is related to the restricted connection between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, which occurred since 7.146 Ma.In the Trave section, the isolation of bottom-waters most likely occurred at the same time as in other Mediterranean sections. However, due to the presence of a hiatus it cannot be excluded that it occurred with a delay of ~ 100 kyr, probably related to the shallower paleodepth of the basin.     

Comparison of micrometer‐ and scanning electron microscope‐based measurements of avian eggshell thickness

ABSTRACT The study of avian eggshell structure, including composition, pigmentation, thickness, and strength, has important ecological and economic implications. Previous investigators have used a variety of techniques to derive either direct measures or indirect estimates of eggshell thickness. Assessing the repeatability and method agreement of different techniques is necessary to permit comparison of eggshell thickness values from different studies on various genetic stocks, populations, and species. We recorded and analyzed measurements of eggshell thickness using two methods, micrometers and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), for several Palaeognathae and Neognathae taxa, including nonpasserines and passerines. Applying a tolerance‐interval approach, we found that repeatability of measurements for eggs with thinner shells (<300 μm, all Neognathae taxa) was worse than for eggs with thicker shells (Palaeognathae taxa), but was still statistically and biologically reasonable given that the relative magnitude of intramethod agreements was <11%. Our results support previous predictions that measurements made using a micrometer are comparable to those made using SEM. This finding is particularly important given the relative ease and cost efficiency of the micrometer method. Importantly, these new analyses can be used to validate the use of published data from previous studies of micrometer‐based eggshell thickness for both intra‐ and interspecific comparisons.     

Adaptive design: estimation and inference with censored data in a semiparametric model

In this article, we provide a method of estimation for the treatment effect in the adaptive design for censored survival data with or without adjusting for risk factors other than the treatment indicator. Within the semiparametric Cox proportional hazards model, we propose a bias-adjusted parameter estimator for the treatment coefficient and its asymptotic confidence interval at the end of the trial. The method for obtaining an asymptotic confidence interval and point estimator is based on a general distribution property of the final test statistic from the weighted linear rank statistics at the interims with or without considering the nuisance covariates. The computation of the estimates is straightforward. Extensive simulation studies show that the asymptotic confidence intervals have reasonable nominal probability of coverage, and the proposed point estimators are nearly unbiased with practical sample sizes.     

Identification of QTLs for Yield and Associated Traits in F₂ Population of Rice

Identification of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) controlling yield and yield-related traits in rice was performed in the F₂ mapping population derived from parental rice genotypes DHMAS and K343. A total of 30 QTLs governing nine different traits were identified using the composite interval mapping (CIM) method. Four QTLs were mapped for number of tillers per plant on chromosomes 1 (2 QTLs), 2 and 3; three QTLs for panicle number per plant on chromosomes 1 (2 QTLs) and 3; four QTLs for plant height on chromosomes 2, 4, 5 and 6; one QTL for spikelet density on chromosome 5; four QTLs for spikelet fertility percentage (SFP) on chromosomes 2, 3 and 5 (2 QTLs); two QTLs for grain length on chromosomes 1 and 8; three QTLs for grain width on chromosomes1, 3 and 8; three QTLs for 1000-grain weight (TGW) on chromosomes 1, 4 and 8 and six QTLs for yield per plant (YPP) on chromosomes 2 (3 QTLs), 4, 6 and 8. Most of the QTLs were detected on chromosome 2, so further studies on chromosome 2 could help unlock some new chapters of QTL for this cross of rice variety. Identified QTLs elucidating high phenotypic variance can be used for marker-assisted selection (MAS) breeding. Further, the exploitation of information regarding molecular markers tightly linked to QTLs governing these traits will facilitate future crop improvement strategies in rice.     

Entrainment during Ablation of Ischemic Ventricular Tachycardia. What is explanation for Post Pacing Interval shorter than the tachycardia cycle length?

Entrainment mapping of ischemic ventricular tachycardia at a site in the left ventricle where radiofrequency ablation was successful in terminating the tachycardia revealed a post-pacing interval shorter than the tachycardia cycle length. The reason for the same is explained in the current report.     

南丰蜜桔可溶性固形物近红外检测的多元线性回归变量筛选

文章采用反向区间偏最小二乘法结合连续投影算法,筛选南丰蜜桔近红外检测的多元线性回归变量。对南丰蜜桔近红外光谱进行多元散射校正后,利用反向间隔偏最小二乘法,从500～1750 nm中初选出7个光谱区间,用于多元线性回归变量筛选。利用通过遗传算法和连续投影算法筛选出的变量建立了多元线性回归模型。经比较发现,利用反向区间偏最小二乘法结合连续投影算法筛选出的变量建立的多元线性回归模型,预测结果最优,模型预测相关系数为0.937,模型预测均方根误差为0.613 oBrix。结果表明,反向区间偏最小二乘法结合连续投影算法,可以有效地筛选近红外光谱的多元线性回归变量,提高南丰蜜桔可溶性固形物模型的预测精度。     

The −1082A/G polymorphism in the Interleukin-10 gene and the risk of rheumatoid arthritis: A meta-analysis

A large number of studies have shown that the −1082A/G polymorphism (rs1800896) in the Interleukin-10 gene (IL-10) is implicated in the susceptibility to rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, the results are inconsistent and inconclusive. The aim of this study is to analyze the association between the −1082A/G polymorphism in the IL-10 gene and the RA risk by meta-analysis. A total of 1480 cases and 1413 controls in 10 case–control studies were included in this meta-analysis. The results indicated that the G allele carriers (GG + GA) had a 25% decreased risk of RA, when compared with the homozygote AA (odds ratio (OR) = 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59–0.93). In the analysis in Europeans, significant decreased risks were associated with the G allele carriers (OR = 0.73 and 95% CI: 0.57–0.93 for GG + GA vs. AA). The results from this meta-analysis provide evidence for the association between the IL-10 −1082A/G polymorphism and the risk of RA. To further evaluate gene × gene and gene × environment interactions between the polymorphisms in the IL-10 gene and RA risk, more studies with large groups of patients are required.