Combined impacts of longline fisheries and climate on the persistence of the Amsterdam Albatross Diomedia amsterdamensis

Incidental capture of seabirds in longline fishing gear is a central issue in the conservation of many long-lived marine species. Despite growing evidence of climate-induced effects on population trends of long-lived species, climate change remains generally overlooked in most risk assessments of seabirds. Because variation in climate may interact with the detrimental effects of bycatch, considering climate is of great importance, especially in the context of ongoing global warming. This paper examines the combined effects of bycatch and climate change on the persistence of one of the world's rarest birds, the Amsterdam Albatross Diomedea amsterdamensis , which has a single population in the upland plateau of Amsterdam Island (Southeast Indian Ocean). Using continuous monitoring from 1983 onwards, we first estimated the relationship between climate and the species' demographic parameters. We then built a stochastic matrix population model to estimate the population growth rate and the probability that the population declines below the level recorded in 1983 of nine breeding pairs under different scenarios involving the joint effects of additional mortality caused by longline fisheries and climate change. The results suggest that the demography of the Amsterdam Albatross is influenced by climate in both breeding and wintering grounds and that these relationships may to some extent compensate for the impact of additive bycatch mortality. However, these compensatory effects would be negligible if the annual additional mortality exceeds around six individuals per year, suggesting that the resumption of longline fishery in the foraging range of the Amsterdam Albatross would rapidly put this species at risk of extinction.     

Estimating Admixture at the Population Scale: Taking Imperfect Detectability and Uncertainty in Hybrid Classification Seriously

Introgressive hybridization between domestic dogs and wolves (Canis lupus) represents an emblematic case of anthropogenic hybridization and is increasingly threatening the genomic integrity of wolf populations expanding into human-modified landscapes. But studies formally estimating prevalence and accounting for imperfect detectability and uncertainty in hybrid classification are lacking. Our goal was to present an approach to formally estimate the proportion of admixture by using a capture-recapture (CR) framework applied to individual multilocus genotypes detected from non-invasive samples collected from a protected wolf population in Italy. We scored individual multilocus genotypes using a panel of 12 microsatellites and assigned genotypes to reference wolf and dog populations through Bayesian clustering procedures. Based on 152 samples, our dataset comprised the capture histories of 39 individuals sampled in 7 wolf packs and was organized in bi-monthly sampling occasions (Aug 2015−May 2016). We fitted CR models using a multievent formulation to explicitly handle uncertainty in individual classification, and accordingly examined 2 model scenarios: one reflecting a traditional approach to classifying individuals (i.e., minimizing the misclassification of wolves as hybrids; Type 1 error), and the other using a more stringent criterion aimed to balance Type 1 and Type 2 error rates (i.e., the misclassification of hybrids as wolves). Compared to the sample proportion of admixed individuals in the dataset (43.6%), formally estimated prevalence was 50% under the first and 70% under the second scenario, with 71.4% and 85.7% of admixed packs, respectively. At the individual level, the proportion of dog ancestry in the wolf population averaged 7.8% (95% CI = 4.4−11%). Balancing between Type 1 and 2 error rates in assignment tests, our second scenario produced an estimate of prevalence 40% higher compared to the alternative scenario, corresponding to a 65% decrease in Type 2 and no increase in Type 1 error rates. Providing a formal and innovative estimation approach to assess prevalence in admixed wild populations, our study confirms previous population modeling indicating that reproductive barriers between wolves and dogs, or dilution of dog genes through backcrossing, should not be expected per se to prevent the spread of introgression. As anthropogenic hybridization is increasingly affecting animal species globally, our approach is of interest to a broader audience of wildlife conservationists and practitioners. © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Giant Anteater Population Density Estimation and Viability Analysis Through Motion-Sensitive Camera Records

Giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) populations are decreasing throughout their range. We tested a methodology for individual identification using camera records and fur patterns to estimate the giant anteater population in a protected area of the Brazilian Cerrado. We identified 9 adult individuals and successfully modeled population abundance and density. Our models estimated an adult population of 16.8 (range = 15–19) giant anteaters through a mark-resight approach and 12.5 individuals (range = 9.7–25.5) through a spatially explicit capture-recapture approach. Density estimates were 0.3–0.4 animals/km². Using these estimates, we performed a population viability analysis to understand and predict this population's future. We modeled scenarios without direct effects and models simulating a double carrying capacity and the supplementation and removal of individuals. Even in the more optimistic scenarios, the population is predicted to decreases over time, with ≤8 individuals remaining in 100 years. Given the study area surroundings, realistic models include removals of giant anteaters in the population. Identification of giant anteaters using cameras can inspire conservationists to acquire population data throughout its distribution and obtain population trends to evaluate the species' conservation status. Individual identification of giant anteaters using a motion-sensitive camera design is feasible, opens new avenues for population analyses, and allows the study of population trends in difficult regions. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Assessing Landbird Monitoring Programs and Demographic Causes of Population Trends

Abstract: Population trend data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) have been used to identify conservation priorities and justify major conservation initiatives. Yet the BBS has been criticized for potential habitat bias and reliance on abundance indices to estimate trends. We compared 1992–2003 BBS trend estimates to trend estimates derived from bird-banding data collected as part of the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program for 36 wood warbler species. Similarity in trends between the 2 monitoring programs at the survey-wide and program-wide scales suggested that each program can provide accurate trend information. The MAPS program, however, was designed primarily to complement (rather than duplicate) count-based efforts, such as the BBS, by providing estimates or indices of demographic rates. Demographic data from MAPS can be used to lend insight into proximate (demographic) causes of population trends and inform management. We illustrate this with analyses of 1992–2003 MAPS data for yellow warbler (Dendroica petechia). We used reverse-time capture-recapture models to evaluate importance of new recruits (including immigrating adults and young from the previous year) relative to surviving adults in explaining variation in trend among BBS physiographic strata. We included the number of young per adult captured (an index of productivity) as a covariate in models to assess effects of productivity on trends. Survival was the key demographic driver of recent population trends. Comparison of MAPS productivity indices and adult apparent survival rate estimates to BBS trend estimates largely confirmed this inference. We suggest that increased MAPS coverage, better coordination between MAPS and the BBS, and continued development of analytical methods that link the 2 programs will enhance the value of these monitoring efforts to land managers and conservation planners working at a variety of spatial scales.     

Estimating population parameters of broadnose sevengill sharks (Notorynchus cepedianus) using photo identification capture-recapture

The broadnose sevengill shark (Notorynchus cepedianus) is a common high trophic-level predator around coastal New Zealand. Data on the ecology of the species in New Zealand are severely lacking, and anthropogenic impacts are unquantified. To partially address this, the authors undertook a study of the demographics of a population at Stewart Island. Sampling trips were carried out seasonally from winter 2016 to spring 2017. A baited underwater video system (BUV) was deployed on 133 occasions (mean = 22.2 deployments per season) in a shallow coastal embayment to capture underwater video of N. cepedianus for photo identification of individuals. N. cepedianus was detected on all but one deployment. Images extracted from video recorded the presence of 149 different individuals. Capture-recapture analysis of these data using robust design methods indicated a seasonal trend in abundance of the population using the study area, ranging from 34 (95% C.I. = 21–55) during winter 2016, to 94 (95% C.I. = 44–199) during spring 2017. This study presents the first data on demographic parameters of N. cepedianus in New Zealand.     

Evaluating uncertainty to improve a common monitoring method and guide management decisions for diamond-backed terrapins

Designing monitoring with adequate certainty to evaluate management actions can be challenging, especially for elusive species in relatively inaccessible habitats. The diamond-backed terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) is considered a high priority species for management in all states within its range. Among key threats to terrapin populations is bycatch mortality in crab pots, prompting states throughout the species' range to consider crabbing regulations and creating a need for a monitoring approach able to evaluate the success of any new crabbing regulations to benefit terrapins. Because terrapins occupy extensive and often difficult to access estuarine habitat, it is hard to collect sufficient data to estimate population responses accurately and precisely for management. To assist state managers with decisions regarding monitoring bycatch reduction regulations, we modeled 12 years of terrapin capture-recapture data. We used estimates from those models to simulate capture-recapture data pre- and post-implementation of bycatch reduction that resulted in a 0.20 absolute increase in mean apparent survival probability. Results indicated weak reliability of a monitoring approach using only manual seining of tidal creeks to detect a real management effect, with a positive management effect detected at the 95% certainty level only 34% of the time. When we considered 85% and 75% certainty thresholds, we detected a positive effect on survival among 61% and 75% of simulations, respectively. Low within-year recapture probability and the effect of tide amplitude on terrapin availability indicate there is low feasibility of improving monitoring precision at a single site, requiring monitoring of more sites to improve confidence in the detection of the management effect. The number of sites monitored depends on the acceptable level of certainty. We recommend that researchers and management entities that use seining assess the level of certainty they require to evaluate management actions and increase the number of sites sampled to meet that level of certainty. Additionally, the use of multiple monitoring methods and integrated models should be explored to reduce uncertainty and to allow for easier monitoring of more populations over broader spatial scales.     

Integrating video and genetic data to estimate annual age-structured apparent survival of American black bears

Camera or genetic data are increasingly used to estimate wildlife abundance and density. We integrated video camera data with genetic data over 7 years to estimate annual age-structured apparent survival of American black bears (Ursus americanus). We identified 70 individuals through meticulous scrutiny of 7531 video captures, cross-referenced with 721 genetic captures from hair samples concurrently collected from stations in view of cameras. We used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model in Program Mark to estimate annual age-structured apparent survival for yearling males, yearling females, 2+ year-old males, and 2+ year-old females. We manually calculated cub survival. We compared parameter estimates based on combined video and genetic data with those based on only genetic data. Combining video and genetic data provided a means to test video-based identification accuracy, which was highest for females (97%–100%). Annual apparent survival was highest for yearling females (φ = 0.92, SE = 0.07), followed by 2+ year-old females (φ = 0.88, SE = 0.05), 2+ year-old males (φ = 0.84, SE = 0.06), and yearling males (φ = 0.80, SE = 0.14). Annual cub survival (φ = 0.86, SE = 0.07) was likely biased because we could not account for mortality that occurred in-den through early spring. Annual apparent survival and recapture probabilities derived from only genetic data were lower than those derived from combined video and genetic data. Our finding that noninvasive data can be used to estimate annual age-structured apparent survival of a species with relatively indistinct traits is broadly relevant to wildlife research and conservation.     

The first description of population density and habitat use of the mainland clouded leopard Neofelis nebulosa within a logged-primary forest in South East Asia

The mainland clouded leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) is classified as vulnerable under the IUCN Red List, meaning that it faces a high risk of extinction in the wild. However, hardly any ecological research has been published on this species apart from several radiotelemetry studies in Thailand and Nepal, and one camera-trapping study in India. Here we present findings on the clouded leopard from a camera-trapping study conducted in Temengor forest reserve (a logged-over forest) and Royal Belum State Park (a primary forest) within Peninsular Malaysia. Using the spatially-explicit capture-recapture method, the density from Temengor forest reserve and Royal Belum State Park was estimated at 3.46 ± SE 1.00 and 1.83 ± SE 0.61, respectively. Clouded leopard habitat use was found to be highly influenced by the availability of small and medium prey species and therefore intrinsically highlights the potential conservation importance of species such as pig-tailed macaques, porcupine, mouse deer and small carnivores. These findings provide the first estimates of density and habitat use of this species in a logged-primary forest from both Peninsular Malaysia and South East Asia. Our study provides important baseline information on clouded leopards and contributes to filling up the knowledge gap that exists in understanding the population ecology of this species, not only within Peninsular Malaysia, but also on a regional level.     

Occupancy,density, and activity patterns of a Critically Endangered leopard population on the Kawthoolei-Thailand border

Large carnivores have been largely extirpated from Southeast Asia due to deforestation, habitat fragmentation, and poaching. Estimating the density of endangered carnivore populations, and identifying relationships between species occupancy and both environmental and anthropogenic factors, is essential for effective conservation planning. Recently, the IUCN conservation status of the Indochinese leopard (Panthera pardus delacouri) was upgraded to “Critically Endangered.” We surveyed Kweekoh Wildlife Sanctuary in Kawthoolei, an area administered by the Karen ethnic group in eastern Myanmar, to quantify (1) leopard population density using spatially explicit mark-resight (SMR) models, (2) leopard occupancy as influenced by important ecological variables, and (3) potential differences in activity between melanistic and spotted leopard morphs. Leopard density was estimated to be 1.39 ± SE 0.22/100 km². Leopard occupancy (ψ = 0.43; 95% credible interval: 0.26–0.67) increased further from roads, at relatively higher elevations, and in areas with higher relative abundance of wild boar. Leopard activity was cathemeral, with higher activity during night hours, and significant overlap (Δ = 0.84; 95% confidence interval: 0.71–0.96) between melanistic and spotted morphs. However, melanistic leopards were more active during twilight hours than spotted individuals whose activity did not significantly vary throughout the day. Indochinese leopard density estimates in Kweekoh were among the lowest reported from Southeast Asia. Leopard occupancy was highest in the sanctuary's core areas, suggesting the presence of negative anthropogenic impacts along the sanctuary borders. We suggest our low density estimates warrant immediate and decisive conservation action, including better protection for leopards, their habitat, and their prey.