Riverine landscape dynamics and ecological risk assessment

1. The aim of ecological risk assessments is to evaluate the likelihood that ecosystems are adversely affected by human‐induced disturbance that brings the ecosystem into a new dynamic equilibrium with a simpler structure and lower potential energy. The risk probability depends on the threshold capacity of the system (resistance) and on the capacity of the system to return to a state of equilibrium (resilience). 2. There are two complementary approaches to assessing ecological risks of riverine landscape dynamics. The reductionist approach aims at identifying risk to the ecosystem on the basis of accumulated data on simple stressor–effect relationships. The holistic approach aims at taking the whole ecosystem performance into account, which implies meso‐scale analysis. 3. Landscape patterns and their dynamics represent the physical framework of processes determining the ecosystem's equilibrium. Assessing risks of landscape dynamics to riverine ecosystems implies addressing complex interactions of system components (e.g. population dynamics and biogeochemical cycles) occurring at multiple scales of space and time. 4. One of the most important steps in ecological risk assessment is to establish clear assessment endpoints (e.g. vital ecosystem and landscape attributes). Their formulation must recognise that riverine ecosystems are dynamic, structurally complex and composed of both deterministic and stochastic components. 5. Remote sensing (geo)statistics and geographical information systems are primary tools for quantifying spatial and temporal components of riverine ecosystem and landscape attributes. 6. The difficulty to experiment at the riverine landscape level means that ecological risk management is heavily dependent on models. Current models are targeted towards simulating ecological risk at levels ranging from single species to habitats, food webs and meta‐populations to ecosystems and entire riverine landscapes, with some including socio‐economic considerations.     

Adaptive and evolutionary significance of a reproductive thermal threshold in Barbus barbus

From 1989 to 1996, barbel in the River Ourthe started spawning under variable environmental conditions, except for water temperature. Each year, spawning was initiated when water daily minimum temperature reached or exceeded 13·5° C. Any decrease of temperature below this value later in the spawning period caused spawning to be suspended. Analyses of offspring growth provided evidence that 13·5° C was the value below which 0+ barbel stop growing. It was hypothesized that barbel trade off the lower initial probability of survival against a larger size at the onset of winter. To test empirically for this hypothesis, the adequacy of alternative—theoretical—strategies associated with other thermal thresholds (12, 15·0, 17·1 and 20·2° C) was modelled with respect to: (1) the feasibility of spawning (inhibition of sexual maturation by a decreasing photoperiod); (2) the impact of the temperature on embryonic development; (3) the effect of water level variations on the integrity of spawning grounds until the emergence of larvae; (4) the size of the offspring at the onset of winter. On an 8-year (1989–1996) average, the present spawning strategy would have produced a higher recruitment than alternative strategies (relative adequacy of 33·23, 85·64, 93·17 and 17·62%, respectively). However, alternative strategies would have produced better annual scores on five of eight occasions in the River Ourthe environment, and a better overall score in environments 1·5 or 3·5° C warmer than now. The consistency of the thermal threshold over years, despite a low selection pressure by the environment, was interpreted as the expression of a phenotypic mechanism (thermal homing) promoting the selection of the lowest efficient thermal threshold, and enabling breeders to relay to the next generation some form of thermal stability in a variable environment.     

Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations

The global vegetation response to climate and atmospheric CO₂ changes between the last glacial maximum and recent times is examined using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4), driven by output from 17 climate simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. Features common to all of the simulations include expansion of treeless vegetation in high northern latitudes; southward displacement and fragmentation of boreal and temperate forests; and expansion of drought‐tolerant biomes in the tropics. These features are broadly consistent with pollen‐based reconstructions of vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum. Glacial vegetation in high latitudes reflects cold and dry conditions due to the low CO₂ concentration and the presence of large continental ice sheets. The extent of drought‐tolerant vegetation in tropical and subtropical latitudes reflects a generally drier low‐latitude climate. Comparisons of the observations with BIOME4 simulations, with and without consideration of the direct physiological effect of CO₂ concentration on C₃ photosynthesis, suggest an important additional role of low CO₂ concentration in restricting the extent of forests, especially in the tropics. Global forest cover was overestimated by all models when climate change alone was used to drive BIOME4, and estimated more accurately when physiological effects of CO₂ concentration were included. This result suggests that both CO₂ effects and climate effects were important in determining glacial‐interglacial changes in vegetation. More realistic simulations of glacial vegetation and climate will need to take into account the feedback effects of these structural and physiological changes on the climate.     

The tooth of perfection: functional and spatial constraints on mammalian tooth shape

This paper addresses the question of how close mammalian teeth are to ideal functional forms. An 'ideal' form is a morphology predicted to be the best functional shape according to information of the relationships between shape and function. Deviations from an ideal form are likely to indicate the presence of developmental or genetic constraints on form. Model tools were constructed to conform to functional principles from engineering and dental studies. The final model shapes are very similar to several mammalian tooth forms (carnassial teeth and tribosphenic-like cusps), suggesting that these tooth forms very closely approach ideal functional forms. Further evidence that these tooth forms are close to ideal comes from the conservation over 140 million years, the independent derivation and/or the occurrence over a size range of several orders of magnitude of these basic tooth forms. One of the main functional shapes derived here is the 'protoconoid', a fundamental design for double-bladed tools that fits a large number of functional parameters. This shape occurs in tooth forms such as tribosphenic, dilambdodont and zalambdodont. This study extends our understanding of constraints on tooth shape in terms of geometry (how space influences tooth shape) and function (how teeth divide food).  © 2003 The Linnean Society of London . Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2003, 78 , 173–191.     

Modelling growth of brown trout, Salmo trutta, in terms of weight and energy units

1. The chief objectives were: (i) to compare two growth models, one based on weight and the other on energy, using the same data set for the analyses; (ii) to discover if weight and energy units can be simply interchanged for growth assessment. The data set was for 183 brown trout, Salmo trutta (live weight 1–300 g), fed to satiation on shrimps, Gammarus pulex, and grown individually over 42 days at constant temperatures (range 3.8–20.4 °C). 2. Rates of change in weight or energy content, and final weight or energy content at the end of 42 days growth, were estimated from the models and were excellent fits to the experimental data (P < 0.001). The shape of the temperature relationship for rates of change or final values was triangular for the weight model and curvilinear for the energetics model. Optimum temperatures for growth according to the weight and energetics models were 13.1 and 13.9 °C, respectively, for rates of change and 13.1 and 13.5 °C, respectively, for final values. When the growth period was extended to 100 and then 300 days, the triangular relationship and optimum temperature remained the same for the weight model, but the curvilinear relationship became more triangular for the energetics model and the optimum temperature identical to that in the weight model. The relationship between gross efficiency and temperature also differed in shape between the two models but maximum efficiencies occurred at a similar value of 9 ± 0.1 °C (18 and 32% for weight and energetics models). As fish weight increased, gross efficiency remained constant in terms of energy units, but decreased markedly in terms of weight. 3. These comparisons showed that different conclusions can be drawn from the two models, even if the same data set was analysed. There was a close relationship between initial wet weight and energy content for stock trout used in the experiments, but the relationship was not so close at the end of the experiments, and interchangeability of units could no longer be assumed. A variable error, often as high as 10–12%, would occur if the relationship for initial values was used to predict one unit from the other. Therefore, weight and energy units cannot be simply interchanged for growth assessment, especially in comparisons for trout of different sizes.     

Using a 1-D mixing model to assess the potential impact of year-to-year changes in weather on the habitat of vendace (Coregonus albula) in Bassenthwaite Lake, Cumbria

1. Bassenthwaite Lake in Cumbria is one of only two English lakes containing a population of vendace (Coregonus albula). The spatial distribution and survival of this fish is strongly influenced by the temperature and oxygen content of the water. In summer, this fish moves into deeper, colder water but avoids areas where the oxygen content is low. 2. In recent years, there has been a dramatic decline in the number of vendace found in the lake, a trend that may have been exacerbated by a succession of warm summers. Bassenthwaite only becomes stably stratified during calm, warm periods when a significant proportion of the deep water becomes anoxic. 3. Here, a one dimensional (1‐D) process‐based temperature‐oxygen model is used to simulate the year‐to‐year variations in the severity of these ‘extreme events’. The model is validated using field measurements acquired in the 1990s and used to predict the range of depths accessible to the vendace. 4. An empirical, weather‐driven model is then used to ‘hindcast’ the mixing characteristics of the lake in the 1980s and estimate the proportion of the habitat lost during warm, calm summers. These simulations show that periods of stable thermal stratification have become increasingly common in recent years. In the 1980s, only one ‘extreme event’ was identified but four such events were recorded in the 1990s. 5. The results are discussed in relation to the conservation status of the species and the potential effect of climate change on its survival in the English Lake District.     

Use of an individual-based model to forecast the effect of climate change on the dynamics, abundance and geographical range of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the UK

Slugs are serious agricultural pests and their activity is strongly driven by ambient temperature and soil moisture. The strength of this relationship has been shown through the development of a deterministic model, based upon temperature and soil moisture conditions alone, which accurately describes the population dynamics and abundance of Deroceras reticulatum . Because of this strong climatic dependence, slug abundance and dynamics are likely to be affected by climate change. We used a validated individual-based model (IbM) of D. reticulatum , to assess the effects of climate change on the abundance of this species in the UK. Climatic scenarios were based on the UKCIP02 predictions and constructed using the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The IbM of slugs predicted population dynamics at three time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s), and two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. The maximum generation number, the number of population peaks, the number of slug-days in each season, the percentage of years when the population passes over a threshold for damage and the percentage of years in which populations go extinct were investigated. Currently, the south-west of the UK has the best conditions for D. reticulatum to thrive, with the north-east of Scotland having the most adverse. By 2080 under both low- and high-emissions scenarios, the north and west of Scotland will have the most favourable conditions for the survival of this species and the east of the UK and Scotland will have the harshest. By 2080 the climate in the north-west of Scotland will become more like the current climate in south-east England, which explains the shift in the pattern of abundance. The north-west of Scotland will have increased slug damage and south-west England and west-Wales will have decreased slug damage with some changes becoming evident by 2020.     

Nonlinearity of photosynthetic responses to growth in rising atmospheric CO2: an experimental and modelling study

Nonlinear responses of photosynthesis to the CO₂ concentration at which plants were grown (C_g) have been often reported in the literature. This study was designed to develop mechanistic understanding of the nonlinear responses with both experimental and modelling approaches. Soybean (Glycine max) was grown in five levels of C_g (280, 350, 525, 700, 1000 ppm) with either a high or low rate of nitrogen fertilization. When the rate of nitrogen fertilization was high, the photosynthetic rate measured at C_g was highest in plants from the 700 ppm CO₂ treatment. When the rate of nitrogen fertilization was low, little variation was observed in the photosynthetic rates of plants from the different treatments measured at their respective C_g. Measurements of CO₂-induced changes in mass-based leaf nitrogen concentration (n_m, an index of changes in biochemical processes) and leaf mass per unit area (h, an index of morphological properties) were used in a model and indicate that the nonlinearity of photosynthetic responses to C_g is largely determined by relative changes in photosynthetic sensitivity, biochemical downregulation, and morphological upregulation. In order to further understand the nonlinear responses, we compiled data from the literature on CO₂-induced changes in n_m and h. These compiled data indicate that h generally increases and n_m usually decreases with increasing C_g, but that the trajectories and magnitudes of the changes in h and n_m vary with species and growth environments. Integration of these variables (n_m and h) into a biochemically based model of photosynthesis enabled us to predict diverse responses of photosynthesis to C_g. Thus a general mechanism is suggested for the highly variable, nonlinear responses of photosynthesis to C_g reported in the literature.     

The ECO-indicator 98 explained

The Eco-Indicator 98 project aims at a complete revision of the Eco-Indicator 95 methodology. Like its predecessor, the target is to develop single scores for designers. The method now includes resources and land use. Important improvements are: the use of fate analysis, the much better definition of the damage categories concerned with human health and ecosystem health, using the PAF (Potentially Affected Fraction) and DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Years) concept, and a completely new approach to modelling resources and land use. Perhaps the most fundamental improvement is the management system for value choices. The result of this management system is that there will be three instead of one indicator. Each version is based on a different cultural perspective. The method should be updated continuously. It is proposed to set up an independent organisation to guide this future development.