Stable isotope-based statistical tools as ecological indicator of pollution sources in Mediterranean transitional water ecosystems

N-stable isotope analysis of macroalgae has become a popular method for the monitoring of nitrogen pollution in aquatic ecosystems. Basing on changes in their δ¹⁵N, macroalgae have been successfully used as biological traps to intercept nitrogen inputs. As different nitrogen sources differ in their isotopic signature, this technique provides useful information on the origin of pollutants and their extension in the water body. However, isotopic fractionation potentially resulting from microbial nitrogen processing, and indirect isotopic variations due to effects of physicochemical conditions on algal nutrient uptake and metabolism, may affect anthropogenic N isotopic values during transportation and assimilation. This in turn can affect the observed isotopic signature in the algal tissue, inducing isotopic variations not related to the origin of assimilated nitrogen, representing a “background noise” in isotope-based water pollution studies.In this study, we focused on three neighbouring coastal lakes (Caprolace, Fogliano and Sabaudia lakes) located south of Rome (Italy). Lakes were characterized by differences in terms of anthropogenic pressure (i.e. urbanization, cultivated crops, livestock grazing) and potential “background noise” levels (i.e. nutrient concentration, pH, microbial concentration). Our aim was to assess nitrogen isotopic variations in fragments of Ulva lactuca specimens after 48 h of submersion to identify and locate the origins of nitrogen pollutants affecting each lake. δ¹⁵N were obtained for replicated specimens of U. lactuca spatially distributed to cover the entire surface of each lake, previously collected from a benchmark, unpolluted site. In order to reduce the environmental background noise on isotopic observations, a Bayesian hierarchical model relating isotopic variation to environmental covariates and random spatial effects was used to describe and understand the distribution of isotopic signals in each lake.Our procedure (i) allowed to remove background noise and confounding effects from the observed isotopic signals; (ii) allowed to detect “hidden” pollution sources that would not be detected when not accounting for the confounding effect of environmental background noise; (iii) produced maps of the three lakes providing a clear representation of the isotopic signal variation even where background noise was high. Maps were useful to locate nitrogen pollution sources, identify the origin of the dissolved nitrogen and quantify the extent of pollutants, showing localized organic pollution impacting Sabaudia and Fogliano, but not Caprolace. This method provided a clear characterization of both intra- and inter-lake anthropogenic pressure gradients, representing a powerful approach to the ecological indication and nitrogen pollution management in complex systems, as transitional waterbodies are.     

The systematic approach to describing conformational rearrangements in G-quadruplexes

Conformational changes in DNA G-quadruplex (GQ)-forming regions affect genome function and, thus, compose an interesting research topic. Computer modelling may yield insight into quadruplex folding and rearrangement, particularly molecular dynamics simulations. Here, we show that specific parameters, which are distinct from those commonly used in DNA conformational analyses, must be introduced for adequate interpretation and, most importantly, convenient visual representation of the quadruplex modelling results. We report a set of parameters that comprehensively and systematically describe GQ geometry in dynamics. The parameters include those related to quartet planarity, quadruplex twist, and quartet stacking; they are used to quantitatively characterise various types of quadruplexes and rearrangements, such as quartet distortion/disruption or deviation/bulging of a single nucleotide from the quartet plane. Our approach to describing conformational changes in quadruplexes using the new parameters is exemplified by telomeric quadruplex rearrangement, and the benefits of applying this approach to analyse other structures are discussed.     

Comparative phylogeography of two co‐distributed but ecologically distinct rainbowfishes of far‐northern Australia

Aim

To test the influence of historical and contemporary environment in shaping the genetic diversity of freshwater fauna we contrast genetic structure in two co‐distributed, but ecologically distinct, rainbowfish; a habitat generalist (Melanotaenia splendida) and a habitat specialist (M. trifasciata).

Location

Fishes were sampled from far northern Australia (Queensland and Northern Territory).

Methods

We used sequence data from one mitochondrial gene and one nuclear gene to investigate patterns of genetic diversity in M. splendida and M. trifasciata to determine how differences in habitat preference and historical changes in drainage boundaries affected patterns of connectivity.

Results

Melanotaenia splendida showed high levels of genetic diversity and little population structure across its range. In contrast, M. trifasciata showed high levels of population structure. Whereas phylogeographic patterns differed, both species showed a strong relationship between geographical distance and genetic differentiation between populations. Melanotaenia splendida showed a shallower relationship with geographical distance, and genetic differentiation was best explained by stream length and a lower scaled ocean distance (11.98 times coast length). For M. trifasciata, genetic differentiation was best explained by overwater distance between catchments and ocean distance scaled at 1.16 × 10⁶ times coast length.

Main conclusions

Connectivity of freshwater populations inhabiting regions periodically interconnected during glacial periods appears to have been affected by ecological differences between species. Species‐specific differences are epitomized here by the contrast between co‐distributed congeners with different habitat requirements: for the habitat generalist, M. splendida, there was evidence for greater historical genetic connectivity with oceans as a weaker barrier to gene exchange in contrast with the habitat specialist, M. trifasciata.     

Modelling biomass of mountainous grasslands by including a species composition map

High mountain grasslands offer multiple goods and services to society but are severely threatened by improper land use practices such as abandonment or rapid intensification. In order to reduce abandonment and strengthen the common extensive agricultural practice a sustainable land use management of high mountain grasslands is needed. A spatially detailed yield assessment helps to identify possible meadows or, on the contrary, areas with a low carrying capacity in a region, making it easier to manage these sites. Such assessments are rarely available for remote and inaccessible areas. Remotely sensed vegetation indices are able to provide valuable information on grassland properties. These indices tend, however, to saturate for high biomass. This affects their applicability to assessments of high-yield grasslands.The main aim of this study was to model a spatially explicit grassland yield map and to test whether saturation issues can be tackled by consideration of plant species composition in the modelling process. The high mountain grassland of the subalpine belt (1800 – 2500 m a.s.l.) in the Kazbegi region, Greater Caucasus, Georgia, was chosen as test site for its strong species composition and yield gradients.We first modelled the species composition of the grassland described as metrically scaled gradients in the form of ordination axes by random forest regression. We then derived vegetation indices from Rapid Eye imagery, and topographic variables from a digital elevation model, which we used together with the multispectral bands as predictive variables. For comparison, we performed two yield models, one excluding the species composition maps and one including the species composition map as predictors. Moreover, we performed a third individual model, with species composition as predictors and a split dataset, to produce the final yield map.Three main grassland types were found in the vegetation analysis: Hordeum violaceum-meadows, Gentianella caucasea-grassland and Astragalus captiosus-grassland. The three random forest regression models for the ordination axes explained 64%, 33% and 46% of the variance in species composition. Independent validation of modelled ordination scores against a validation data set resulted in an R² of 0.64, 0.32 and 0.46 for the first, second and third axes, respectively. The model based on species composition resulted in a R² = 0.55, whereas the benchmark model showed weaker relationships between yield and the multispectral reflectance, vegetation indices, and topographical parameters (R² = 0.42). The final random forest yield model used to derive the yield map resulted in 62% variance explained and an R² = 0.64 between predicted and observed biomass. The results further indicate that high yields are generally difficult to predict with both models.The benefit of including a species composition map as a predictor variable for grassland yield lies in the preservation of ecologically meaningful features, especially the occurrence of high yielding vegetation type of Hordeum violaceum meadows is depicted accurately in the map. Even though we used a gradient based design, sharp boundaries or immediate changes in productivity were visible, especially in small structures such as arable fields or roads (Fig. 6b), making it a valuable tool for sustainable land use management. The saturation effect however, was mitigated by using species composition as predictor variables but is still present at high yields.     

An Algorithm for Calculation of n-Dimensional Nonlinear Dependencies – Behaviour Tests on Rats

The evaluation of the data obtained during the behaviour tests always leads to the problem of multiple correlation, very often with non-linear dependencies on the target. All mathematical and statistical procedures that have been used so far are based on the assumption of an equation for the desired correlation for which parameters and related statistical equivalents are determined eventually. The MODAK system applied here (MODAK = algorithms of modelling for the calculation of multi-dimensional non-linear mathematical models) breaks down a complex correlation into individual dependencies in a mathematical and statistical way and selects suitable equations for each of them independently and determines the corresponding parameters. The numerical example evaluates data of behaviour tests on rats. First results obtained on the correlations of various behaviour tests indicate both the possibility of selecting suitable tests independent of each other and a better interpretation of the observed patterns of behaviour taking into account the interrelations between the tests. In addition, MODAK is a method which can be applied as a matter of course in a general way to all cases which call for the reduction and analysis of data occurring in process and system analysis and in the evaluation of test results requiring statistical modelling. So far, MODAK applications range from engineering sciences to medicine.