Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long-term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies. Here, we present a unique database of >170,000 records of ground-based natural disturbance observations in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Reported data confirm a significant increase in forest disturbance in 34 European countries, causing on an average of 43.8 million m³ of disturbed timber volume per year over the 70-year study period. This value is likely a conservative estimate due to under-reporting, especially of small-scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques for assessing the magnitude of unreported disturbances, which are estimated to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m³/year. In the last 20 years, disturbances on average accounted for 16% of the mean annual harvest in Europe. Wind was the most important disturbance agent over the study period (46% of total damage), followed by fire (24%) and bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle disturbance doubled its share of the total damage in the last 20 years. Forest disturbances can profoundly impact ecosystem services (e.g., climate change mitigation), affect regional forest resource provisioning and consequently disrupt long-term management planning objectives and timber markets. We conclude that adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be placed at the core of the European forest management and policy debate. Furthermore, a coherent and homogeneous monitoring system of natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe, to better observe and respond to the ongoing changes in forest disturbance regimes.     

Global mangrove root production,its controls and roles in the blue carbon budget of mangroves

Mangroves are among the most carbon-dense ecosystems worldwide. Most of the carbon in mangroves is found belowground, and root production might be an important control of carbon accumulation, but has been rarely quantified and understood at the global scale. Here, we determined the global mangrove root production rate and its controls using a systematic review and a recently formalised, spatially explicit mangrove typology framework based on geomorphological settings. We found that global mangrove root production averaged ~770 ± 202 g of dry biomass m⁻² year⁻¹ globally, which is much higher than previously reported and close to the root production of the most productive tropical forests. Geomorphological settings exerted marked control over root production together with air temperature and precipitation (r² ≈ 30%, p < .001). Our review shows that individual global changes (e.g. warming, eutrophication, drought) have antagonist effects on root production, but they have rarely been studied in combination. Based on this newly established root production rate, root-derived carbon might account for most of the total carbon buried in mangroves, and 19 Tg C lost in mangroves each year (e.g. as CO₂). Inclusion of root production measurements in understudied geomorphological settings (i.e. deltas), regions (Indonesia, South America and Africa) and soil depth (>40 cm), as well as the creation of a mangrove root trait database will push forward our understanding of the global mangrove carbon cycle for now and the future. Overall, this review presents a comprehensive analysis of root production in mangroves, and highlights the central role of root production in the global mangrove carbon budget.     

Loss of functionally important and regionally endemic species from streams forced into intermittency by global warming

Climate change is altering hydrological cycles globally, and in Mediterranean (med-) climate regions it is causing the drying of river flow regimes, including the loss of perennial flows. Water regime exerts a strong influence over stream assemblages, which have developed over geological timeframes with the extant flow regime. Consequently, sudden drying in formerly perennial streams is expected to have large, negative impacts on stream fauna. We compared contemporary (2016/17) macroinvertebrate assemblages of formerly perennial streams that became intermittently flowing (since the early 2000s) to assemblages recorded in the same streams by a study conducted pre-drying (1981/82) in the med-climate region of southwestern Australia (the Wungong Brook catchment, SWA), using a multiple before-after, control-impact design. Assemblage composition in the stream reaches that remained perennial changed very little between the studies. In contrast, recent intermittency had a profound effect on species composition in streams impacted by drying, including the extirpation of nearly all Gondwanan relictual insect species. New species arriving at intermittent streams tended to be widespread, resilient species including desert-adapted taxa. Intermittent streams also had distinct species assemblages, due in part to differences in their hydroperiods, allowing the establishment of distinct winter and summer assemblages in streams with longer-lived pools. The remaining perennial stream is the only refuge for ancient Gondwanan relict species and the only place in the Wungong Brook catchment where many of these species still persist. The fauna of SWA upland streams is becoming homogenised with that of the wider Western Australian landscape, as drought-tolerant, widespread species replace local endemics. Flow regime drying caused large, in situ alterations to stream assemblage composition and demonstrates the threat posed to relictual stream faunas in regions where climates are drying.     

Identifying historical and future global change drivers that place species recovery at risk

Ecosystem management in the face of global change requires understanding how co-occurring threats affect species and communities. Such an understanding allows for effective management strategies to be identified and implemented. An important component of this is differentiating between factors that are within (e.g. invasive predators) or outside (e.g. drought, large wildfires) of a local manager's control. In the global biodiversity hotspot of south-western Australia, small- and medium-sized mammal species are severely affected by anthropogenic threats and environmental disturbances, including invasive predators, fire, and declining rainfall. However, the relative importance of different drivers has not been quantified. We used data from a long-term monitoring program to fit Bayesian state-space models that estimated spatial and temporal changes in the relative abundance of four threatened mammal species: the woylie (Bettongia penicillata), chuditch (Dasyurus geoffroii), koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula) and quenda (Isoodon fusciventor). We then use Bayesian structural equation modelling to identify the direct and indirect drivers of population changes, and scenario analysis to forecast population responses to future environmental change. We found that habitat loss or conversion and reduced primary productivity (caused by rainfall declines) had greater effects on species' spatial and temporal population change than the range of fire and invasive predator (the red fox Vulpes vulpes) management actions observed in the study area. Scenario analysis revealed that a greater extent of severe fire and further rainfall declines predicted under climate change, operating in concert are likely to further reduce the abundance of these species, but may be mitigated partially by invasive predator control. Considering both historical and future drivers of population change is necessary to identify the factors that risk species recovery. Given that both anthropogenic pressures and environmental disturbances can undermine conservation efforts, managers must consider how the relative benefit of conservation actions will be shaped by ongoing global change.     

A surplus no more? Variation in krill availability impacts reproductive rates of Antarctic baleen whales

The krill surplus hypothesis of unlimited prey resources available for Antarctic predators due to commercial whaling in the 20th century has remained largely untested since the 1970s. Rapid warming of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the past 50 years has resulted in decreased seasonal ice cover and a reduction of krill. The latter is being exacerbated by a commercial krill fishery in the region. Despite this, humpback whale populations have increased but may be at a threshold for growth based on these human-induced changes. Understanding how climate-mediated variation in prey availability influences humpback whale population dynamics is critical for focused management and conservation actions. Using an 8-year dataset (2013–2020), we show that inter-annual humpback whale pregnancy rates, as determined from skin-blubber biopsy samples (n = 616), are positively correlated with krill availability and fluctuations in ice cover in the previous year. Pregnancy rates showed significant inter-annual variability, between 29% and 86%. Our results indicate that krill availability is in fact limiting and affecting reproductive rates, in contrast to the krill surplus hypothesis. This suggests that this population of humpback whales may be at a threshold for population growth due to prey limitations. As a result, continued warming and increased fishing along the WAP, which continue to reduce krill stocks, will likely impact this humpback whale population and other krill predators in the region. Humpback whales are sentinel species of ecosystem health, and changes in pregnancy rates can provide quantifiable signals of the impact of environmental change at the population level. Our findings must be considered paramount in developing new and more restrictive conservation and management plans for the Antarctic marine ecosystem and minimizing the negative impacts of human activities in the region.     

Interactive effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation on birds across different climate zones: A mechanistic perspective

Climate change and urbanisation are among the most pervasive and rapidly growing threats to biodiversity worldwide. However, their impacts are usually considered in isolation, and interactions are rarely examined. Predicting species' responses to the combined effects of climate change and urbanisation, therefore, represents a pressing challenge in global change biology. Birds are important model taxa for exploring the impacts of both climate change and urbanisation, and their behaviour and physiology have been well studied in urban and non-urban systems. This understanding should allow interactive effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation to be inferred, yet considerations of these interactions are almost entirely lacking from empirical research. Here, we synthesise our current understanding of the potential mechanisms that could affect how species respond to the combined effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation, with a focus on avian taxa. We discuss potential interactive effects to motivate future in-depth research on this critically important, yet overlooked, aspect of global change biology. Increased temperatures are a pronounced consequence of both urbanisation (through the urban heat island effect) and climate change. The biological impact of this warming in urban and non-urban systems will likely differ in magnitude and direction when interacting with other factors that typically vary between these habitats, such as resource availability (e.g. water, food and microsites) and pollution levels. Furthermore, the nature of such interactions may differ for cities situated in different climate types, for example, tropical, arid, temperate, continental and polar. Within this article, we highlight the potential for interactive effects of climate and urban drivers on the mechanistic responses of birds, identify knowledge gaps and propose promising future research avenues. A deeper understanding of the behavioural and physiological mechanisms mediating species' responses to urbanisation and rising temperatures will provide novel insights into ecology and evolution under global change and may help better predict future population responses.     

Climate change disrupts core habitats of marine species

Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of >33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO₂ emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.     

Filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton response to climate change and implications for benthic food supply and global carbon cycle

It is often suggested that gelatinous zooplankton may benefit from anthropogenic pressures of all kinds and in particular from climate change. Large pelagic tunicates, for example, are likely to be favored over other types of macrozooplankton due to their filter-feeding mode, which gives them access to small preys thought to be less affected by climate change than larger preys. In this study, we provide model-based estimate of potential community changes in macrozooplankton composition and estimate for the first time their effects on benthic food supply and on the ocean carbon cycle under two 21st-century climate-change scenarios. Forced with output from an Earth System Model climate projections, our ocean biogeochemical model simulates a large reduction in macrozooplankton biomass in response to anthropogenic climate change, but shows that gelatinous macrozooplankton are less affected than nongelatinous macrozooplankton, with global biomass declines estimated at −2.8% and −3.5%, respectively, for every 1°C of warming. The inclusion of gelatinous macrozooplankon in our ocean biogeochemical model has a limited effect on anthropogenic carbon uptake in the 21st century, but impacts the projected decline in particulate organic matter fluxes in the deep ocean. In subtropical oligotrophic gyres, where gelatinous zooplankton dominate macrozooplankton, the decline in the amount of organic matter reaching the seafloor is reduced by a factor of 2 when gelatinous macrozooplankton are considered (−17.5% vs. −29.7% when gelatinous macrozooplankton are not considered, all for 2100 under RCP8.5). The shift to gelatinous macrozooplankton in the future ocean therefore buffers the decline in deep carbon fluxes and should be taken into account when assessing potential changes in deep carbon storage and the risks that deep ecosystems may face when confronted with a decline in their food source.     

Recolonization following past persecution questions the importance of persistent snow cover as a range limiting factor for wolverines

Globally, climate is changing rapidly, which causes shifts in many species' distributions, stressing the need to understand their response to changing environmental conditions to inform conservation and management. Northern latitudes are expected to experience strongest changes in climate, with milder winters and decreasing snow cover. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a circumpolar, threatened carnivore distributed in northern tundra, boreal, and subboreal habitats. Previous studies have suggested that wolverine distribution and reproduction are constrained by a strong association with persistent spring snow cover. We assess this hypothesis by relating spatial distribution of 1589 reproductive events, a fitness-related proxy for female reproduction and survival, to snow cover over two decades. Wolverine distribution has increased and number of reproductive events increased 20 times in areas lacking spring snow cover during our study period, despite low monitoring effort where snow is sparse. Thus, the relationship between reproductive events and persistent spring snow cover weakened during this period. These findings show that wolverine reproductive success and hence distribution are less dependent on spring snow cover than expected. This has important implications for projections of future habitat availability, and thus distribution, of this threatened species. Our study also illustrates how past persecution, or other factors, that have restricted species distribution to remote areas can mask actual effects of environmental parameters, whose importance reveals when populations expand beyond previously restricted ranges. Overwhelming evidence shows that climate change is affecting many species and ecological processes, but forecasting potential consequences on a given species requires longitudinal data to revisit hypotheses and reassess the direction and magnitude of climate effects with new data. This is especially important for conservation-oriented management of species inhabiting dynamic systems where environmental factors and human activities interact, a common scenario for many species in different ecosystems around the globe.     

Long-term changes in Noctiluca scintillans blooms along the Chinese coast from 1933 to 2020

Noctiluca scintillans is one of the most common harmful algal species and widely known due to its bioluminescence. In this study, the spatial distribution, seasonal variations, and long-term trends of N. scintillans blooms in China and the related drivers were analyzed and discussed. From 1933 to 2020, a total of 265 events of N. scintillans blooms were recorded in Chinese coastal waters, with a total duration of 1052 days. The first N. scintillans bloom occurred in Zhejiang in 1933, and only three events were recorded before 1980. From 1981 to 2020, N. scintillans caused harmful algal blooms (HABs) almost every year, both the average duration and the proportion of multiphase HABs showed an increasing trend. 1986–1992, 2002–2004, and 2009–2016 were the three peak periods with a frequency of no less than five events of N. scintillans blooms per year. In terms of spatial distribution, N. scintillans blooms spread from the Southeast China Sea to the Bohai Sea after 2000, Guangdong, Fujian, and Hebei were the three provinces with the highest numbers of recorded events of N. scintillans blooms. Moreover, 86.8% of the events of N. scintillans blooms occurred in spring (March, April, and May) and summer (June, July, and August). Among environmental factors, the dissolved inorganic phosphate, dissolved silicate and chemical oxygen demand were significantly correlated with the cell density of N. scintillans during N. scintillans blooms, and most of N. scintillans blooms were recorded in the temperature range of 18.0–25.0°C. Precipitation, hydrodynamics, water temperature, and food availability might be the main factors affecting the spatial–temporal distribution of N. scintillans blooms along the Chinese coast.