半干旱区春小麦生长系统的人工神经网络模型与产量预测

以半干旱区春小麦生长系统为研究对象。探讨了作物生长系统中水分、土壤养分等生态因子的时空变化特征及春小麦产量形成机制,应用人工神经网络方法建立了半干旱区春小麦生长系统的产量随环境因子变化的神经网络模型,并与传统的CTM模型进行了比较。模拟结果表明,人工神经网络模型可适用于半干旱区春小麦生长系统产量随环境因子变化规律描述,且优于传统模型,从而为春小麦产量预测提供了新的途径,也为作物生态系统的人工调控提供了新的模式与定量依据。     

猕猴桃细菌性溃疡病流行预测初探

对猕猴桃溃疡病流行分析表明,影响该病发生严重程度y的生态因子是3月中下旬降水x1和1月份均温x2,其模型是y=2.1359 0.0107x1-0.6061x2;猕猴桃溃疡病发生流行的主导因子为冬季及初春旬均温和降水量的相对变差,并且由此得到病害流行的回归方程为：y=-8.127 22.739x-13.254x^2,经检验,该方程达极显著水平。     

农作物重大害虫发生规律研究与“九五”趋势分析

考查我国农作物重大害虫历史发生状况,研究粘虫Mythimna separata Walker、稻飞虱Nilaparvata lugens Sstal稻纵卷叶螟Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee、二化螟Chilo sup pressalis Walker、三化螟Tryporyza incertulas Walker、麦蚜Schizaphis graminum Rondani、玉米螟Ostrinia furnacalis Guenee、棉铃虫Helicoverpar armigera (Hubner)等害虫的长期发生规律,初步发现粘虫、二化螟、稻飞虱、稻纵卷叶螟、玉米螟等长期变化有约16年周 期现象,稻飞虱、三化螟有12年左右周期性规律,二化螟、稻纵卷叶螟、麦蚜、棉铃虫等发生周期约11年。根据害虫规律性作出“九五”期间发展趋势预测。     

Forecasting infections of the red rot disease on Porphyra yezoensis Ueda (Rhodophyta) cultivation farms

Pythium porphyrae is a fungal pathogen responsible for red rot disease of the seaweed Porphyra (Rhodophyta). Infection forecasts of Porphyra by P. porphyrae were estimated from the epidemiological observations of Porphyra thalli and numbers of zoospore of P. porphyrae in laboratory and cultivation areas. Four features of forecasting infections were determined by relating zoospore concentrations to the incidence of thallus infection; infection (in more than 1000 zoospores L⁻¹), microscopic infection [less than 2 mm in diameter of lesion (in from 2000 to 3000 zoospores L⁻¹)], macroscopic infection [more than 2 mm in diameter of lesion (in from 3000 to 4000 zoospores L⁻¹), and thallus disintegration (in more than 4000 zoospores L⁻¹). High zoospore concentrations led to more infection. The tendency that zoospore concentration of P. porphyrae increased with the rate of infection of Porphyra thalli was generally observed in forecasting infections in both the laboratory and in cultivation areas. Based on the Porphyra cultivation areas, the accuracy and consistency of forecasting infections suggest that this method could be employed to manage and control red rot disease.     

Towards numerical forecasting of long-range air transport of birch pollen: theoretical considerations and a feasibility study

This paper considers the feasibility of numerical simulation of large-scale atmospheric transport of allergenic pollen. It is shown that at least small grains, such as birch pollen, can stay in the air for a few days, which leads to a characteristic scale for their transport of ∼10³ km. The analytical consideration confirmed the applicability of existing dispersion models to the pollen transport task and provided some reference parameterizations of the key processes, including dry and wet deposition. The results were applied to the Finnish Emergency Dispersion Modelling System (SILAM), which was then used to analyze pollen transport to Finland during spring time in 2002–2004. Solutions of the inverse problems (source apportionment) showed that the main source areas, from which the birch flowering can affect Finnish territory, are the Baltic States, Russia, Germany, Poland, and Sweden—depending on the particular meteorological situation. Actual forecasting of pollen dispersion required a birch forest map of Europe and a unified European model for birch flowering, both of which were nonexistent before this study. A map was compiled from the national forest inventories of Western Europe and satellite images of broadleaf forests. The flowering model was based on the mean climatological dates for the onset of birch forests rather than conditions of any specific year. Utilization of probability forecasting somewhat alleviated the problem, but the development of a European-wide flowering model remains the main obstacle for real-time forecasting of large-scale pollen distribution.     

Estimating Propensity Scores and Causal Survival Functions Using Prevalent Survival Data

Summary This article develops semiparametric approaches for estimation of propensity scores and causal survival functions from prevalent survival data. The analytical problem arises when the prevalent sampling is adopted for collecting failure times and, as a result, the covariates are incompletely observed due to their association with failure time. The proposed procedure for estimating propensity scores shares interesting features similar to the likelihood formulation in case‐control study, but in our case it requires additional consideration in the intercept term. The result shows that the corrected propensity scores in logistic regression setting can be obtained through standard estimation procedure with specific adjustments on the intercept term. For causal estimation, two different types of missing sources are encountered in our model: one can be explained by potential outcome framework; the other is caused by the prevalent sampling scheme. Statistical analysis without adjusting bias from both sources of missingness will lead to biased results in causal inference. The proposed methods were partly motivated by and applied to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)‐Medicare linked data for women diagnosed with breast cancer.     

粉虱类害虫的监测预警与可持续治理技术透视

针对烟粉虱Bemisia tabaci（Gennadius）、温室白粉虱Trialeurodes vaporariorum（Westwood）、黑刺粉虱Aleurocanthus spiniferus（Quaintance）、桑粉虱Pealius mori（Takahashi）、禾粉虱Aleurocybotus indicus David etSubramaniam等粉虱害虫在我国暴发危害的现状,公益性行业科研专项＂粉虱类害虫可持续治理技术研究与集成示范＂项目组在华南、华东、华北、华中和西南等地区开展了粉虱类害虫的调查、监测、预警以及综合防控技术研究集成与示范。结果表明,烟粉虱在我国的发生区域超过20个省份,温室白粉虱在华北和西南地区,黑刺粉虱在华南、华东和西南地区也分布较广,桑粉虱在我国南方桑植区危害严重,禾粉虱在福建省闽东稻区发生为害逐年严重。利用mt COI DNA测序、SCAR技术和CAPS等技术对B和Q型烟粉虱的鉴定结果显示,Q型烟粉虱在我国的分布范围正在不断扩大。通过Maxent预测模型和GIS技术,预测了烟粉虱在我国的适生区、自然越冬北线和不同地区的发生世代数量。对烟粉虱的抗药性监测结果表明,阿维菌素和烯啶虫胺是目前华北地区防治烟粉虱较为理想的药剂,而对联苯菊酯、噻虫嗪、啶虫脒和吡虫啉等药剂均产生了不同程度的抗药性。研究了苘麻诱集、黄板诱杀、天敌昆虫和病原微生物对粉虱类害虫的控制作用,并在华南、华东、华北、华中和西南等地区建立了12个示范基地,分别在不同地区开展了粉虱类害虫的综合防治技术的示范和推广,累计印刷技术宣传手册12.4万份,培训各类农民和基层农技人员5.43万人次,累计示范面积4.3千公顷次,技术辐射超过4万公顷次,取得了显著的经济、社会和生态效益。     

外来入侵害虫西花蓟马防控技术研究与示范

针对入侵害虫西花蓟马Frankliniella occidentalis(Pergande)在我国部分地区暴发成灾的形势,公益性行业科研专项"外来入侵害虫西花蓟马防控技术研究与示范"项目组在除西藏、台湾、香港和澳门以外的30个省、区和直辖市开展了西花蓟马的调查、监测、预警和综合防控技术研究与示范。结果表明西花蓟马在北京、云南、浙江、山东等14个省市发生危害,尤以云南和北京两地最为严重,在全国呈快速蔓延趋势。明确了西花蓟马在我国的成灾机制;建立了西花蓟马高效诱捕技术;筛选出4种对西花蓟马具有显著控害潜力的本土天敌昆虫及病原微生物;筛选出5种对西花蓟马高效、对环境友好的防治药剂;明确西花蓟马重要发生区域北京和云南种群对主要化学药剂的抗性和机制;分别组建了基于农业措施防治、色板与引诱剂应用的引诱技术、生物防治和高效环保化学农药综合应用的10套西花蓟马防控技术体系,在我国北京、云南、山东和浙江等西花蓟马主要发生区域累计推广面积2.65万公顷,有效控制了西花蓟马的为害和扩散蔓延。