A Bayesian Long‐term Survival Model Parametrized in the Cured Fraction

The main goal of this paper is to investigate a cure rate model that comprehends some well‐known proposals found in the literature. In our work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. The model is conveniently reparametrized through the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates by means of the logistic link. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in the proposed model. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.     

Distribution, endemism and threat status of freshwater fishes in the Western Ghats of India

Aim To study (1) the large-scale distribution patterns of freshwater fishes in the Western Ghats of India; (2) the endemism and uniqueness of the fishes in various zones; and (3) the threat status of fishes by categorizing them under low risk (LR), vulnerable (VU), endangered (EN) and critically endangered (CR). Location The Western Ghats of India. Methods The scientific literature describing the freshwater fishes of the Western Ghats was reviewed. Data describing the lists of the species were extracted and complied. The species accumulation curve was plotted using Michaelis–Menten-like equation. The Western Ghats was divided into six zones and similarity of the species was calculated using Jacquard's index. Results Literature to date records 288 species belonging to 12 orders, 41 families and 109 genera, of which 118 species are endemic and 51 are unique. However, the species accumulation curve shows that there might be 345 species in this region, indicating that 16% species have not been recorded to date. An analysis of the distribution pattern of fishes in the Western Ghats suggests that the southern region is more diverse than the northern and central regions. The southern region shows high endemism and high uniqueness while the northern region shows high endemism but less uniqueness. The similarity index between the zones indicates that as the distance between the zones increases similarity decreases. The status of 105 of 288 species was not known due to data deficiency but among the remaining 183 species, 58 species were categorized as LR, 41 as VU, 54 as EN, 24 as CR while the remaining six species were introduced. Conclusions The distribution patterns of fishes in the Western Ghats are discussed in accordance with the geography of Western Ghats, its climatic conditions and ‘Satpura Hypothesis’. The threat status of fishes found in Western Ghats suggests that at least 41% of fish fauna is threatened by either being VU, EN or CR. Implication of potent conservation measures is necessary to conserve the fish fauna of Western Ghats.     

DEVELOPMENT OF DISPERSAL, MOVEMENT PATTERNS, AND HAUL-OUT USE BY PUP AND JUVENILE STELLER SEA LIONS (EUMETOPIAS JUBATUS) IN ALASKA

Population declines of Steller sea lions ( Eumetopias juhatus ) in western Alaska (west of 144°W) may be a result of reduced juvenile survival. We used satellite telemetry to study the at-sea distribution and movement patterns of pup (1.6–11.9 mo) and juvenile (12.0–35.1 mo) Steller sea lions. We studied trip distance, duration, and interhaul-out movements of sea lions in relation to age, sex, and month of year in the decreasing western population (WP; Prince William Sound, Kodiak, Aleutian Islands, Alaska) and the increasing eastern population (EP; Southeast Alaska). We deployed 103 satellite transmitters (29 WP; 74 EP) on sea lions between 1998 and 2001. Round trip distance and duration increased with age, trip distance was greater in the WP than the EP, trip duration was greater for females than males, and haul-out use was clustered. Changes in round trip distance and duration occurred from April to June for all age classes studied indicating that the annual timing of weaning may be less variable than the age of weaning. Overall, 90% of round trips were ≤ 15 km from haul-outs and 84% were <20 h, indicating nearshore areas adjacent to haulouts are critical to the developing juvenile.     

Changes in distribution of an archaic moth, Micropterix calthella, in St Petersburg, Russia, between 1989 and 2005

Aim  This work aimed to assess changes in the number of suitable habitats and habitat occupancy by Micropterix calthella (L.) moths (Lepidoptera, Micropterigidae) in the city of St Petersburg between 1989 and 2005.
Location  The city of St Petersburg, Russia.
Methods  The study compares results of the survey conducted on 9–12 June 2005 with data collected in 1989 and is based on the assessment of the quality and occupancy of 103 habitats that were found potentially suitable for M. calthella in 1989. If habitats contained wet microsites with undisturbed litter and dense field layer vegetation with a high abundance of flowering Ranunculus sp., they were considered potentially suitable for M. calthella ; in these habitats, moths were searched for on flowers of Ranunculus – visually and/or by extensive sweep-netting.
Results  Both the number of habitats suitable for M. calthella and the number of habitats occupied by this species decreased since 1986 from 103 to 72 and from 58 to 34, respectively. The disappearance of habitats was primarily due to the building of residential blocks within the city (16 sites) and railway renovation (10 sites), while changes in habitat management, primarily in parks and recreation zones (five sites), were less important. The average distance from the city centre to the nearest population of M. calthella increased from 8.7 ± 1.5 to 12.9 ± 3.0 km (mean ± SE).
Main conclusion  The data for 2005 fit the prediction that M. calthella moths, which are unable to re-colonize potentially suitable habitats due to their low migratory ability, will disappear from the city. At the present rate of extinction, this process may take some 20–30 years to complete (or nearly complete).     

Factors Controlling the Abundance and Size Distribution of the Phototrophic Ciliate Myrionecta rubra in Open Waters of the North Atlantic

ABSTRACT. Myrionecta rubra, a ubiquitous planktonic ciliate, has received much attention due to its wide distribution, occurrence as a red tide organism, and unusual cryptophyte endosymbiont. Although well studied in coastal waters, M. rubra is poorly examined in the open ocean. In the Irminger Basin, North Atlantic, the abundance of M. rubra was 0–5 cells/ml, which is low compared with that found in coastal areas. Distinct patchiness (100 km) was revealed by geostatistical analysis. Multiple regression indicated there was little relationship between M. rubra abundance and a number of environmental factors, with the exception of temperature and phytoplankton biomass, which influenced abundance in the spring. We also improve on studies that indicate distinct size classes of M. rubra; we statistically recognise four significantly distinct width classes (5–16, 12–23, 18–27, 21–33 μm), which decrease in abundance with increasing size. A multinomial logistic regression revealed the main variable correlated with this size distribution was ambient nitrate concentration. Finally, we propose a hypothesis for the distribution of sizes, involving nutrients, feeding, and dividing of the endosymbiont.     

Testing Homogeneity of Two Zero‐inflated Poisson Populations

The problem of testing treatment difference in the occurrence of a safety parameter in a randomized parallel‐group comparative clinical trial under the assumption that the number of occurrence follows a zero‐inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution is considered. Likelihood ratio tests (LRT) for homogeneity of two ZIP populations are derived under the hypotheses that (i) there is no difference in inflation parameters, (ii) there is no difference in non‐zero means; and (iii) there is no difference in both inflation parameters and non‐zero means. Approximate formulas for sample size calculation are also obtained for achieving a desired power for detecting a clinically meaningful difference under the corresponding alternative hypotheses. An example concerning the assessment of the gastrointestinal (GI) safety in terms of the number of erosion counts of a newly developed compound for the treatment of osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis is given for illustration purpose (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Variation in structure and distribution of pre-spawning Pacific herring shoals in two regions of British Columbia

In two regions of British Columbia, small and medium-sized shoals of pre-spawning Pacific herring Clupea harengus pallasi were most numerous and occurred as neighbours more frequently than would be expected by chance. Herring displayed a typical diurnal vertical migration, although shoals in the Central Coast were more evenly distributed through the water column during the day than those in the Strait of Georgia. As maturation progressed, shoals were found in shallower water, more densely packed and vertically extended in shape. In the Strait of Georgia, shoals were considerably larger, and positioned relatively deeper in the water column. Very large (>5000 t) shoals were found at specific locations characterized by high water exchange. Large shoals may act as an anti-predator strategy to the abundant sealions and birds. Moreover, staying deep in the water column, and associating with dips in the sea bed, reduces predation risk and confers energy savings through hydrodynamic advantage. Smaller, denser, vertically extended, travelling shoals, prevalent during the later stages of gonad maturation, were similar in nature to labile spherical shoals observed in the Central Coast at different locations each day. Both these shoal types may benefit from synchrony and co-ordination when evading predators that is not possible for larger shoals. The more highly clustered distribution of shoals in the Central Coast is presumed to be linked to their tight association with rock outcroppings typical of this region.     

阿尔泰山两河源自然保护区森林生态系统朽木生地衣群落的数量分类

应用双向指示种分析和除趋势对应分析对阿尔泰山两河源国家级自然保护区的朽木生地衣群落进行了数量分类。初步结果表明,该自然保护区朽木生地衣共有43种,隶属于5目、14科、20属,它们组成了以下4个地衣群落。群落(Ⅰ):分布在样点1、2、3、4、5中,包括15种地衣种类,命名为对开蜈蚣衣+半羽蜈蚣衣+红心黑蜈蚣衣群落。群落(Ⅱ):分布在样点6、7、8、9、11中,包括25种地衣,命名为尖头石蕊+粉石蕊+矮石蕊群落。群落(Ⅲ):由样点10、12、13、14、16组成,常见的地衣种类有19个种,命名为蜡黄橙衣+茎口果粉衣+冷杉粉衣群落。群落(Ⅳ):包括样点15、17、18、19和20,由22个地衣种组成。命名为疑小梅衣+同色黄烛衣+脱落网衣群落。群落Ⅰ和群落Ⅱ的相似性最高为0.723,其次为群落Ⅰ和群落Ⅲ为0.609,群落Ⅲ和群落Ⅳ之间的相似性最低为0.262。群落Ⅲ的多样性最大为1.954;其次为群落Ⅱ和群落Ⅰ,分别为1.742和我1.685,群落Ⅳ的多样性最低为0.543。各群落的相似性和多样性之间的差异与其所处环境和朽木树种的多样性有关。同时发现在研究地区的朽木生地衣群落的分布与海拔高度、朽木腐蚀程度、朽木大小、森林郁闭度等因子具有密切的关系。     

剪枝象有效学名的厘清及常见种的鉴别

剪枝象属Cyllorhynchites Voss隶属于齿颚象科Rhynchitidae齿颚象亚科Rhynchitinae齿颚象族Rhynchitini,但其属名在国内外使用较为混乱。此外,该属的常见种类栗实剪枝象Cyllorhynchites cumulatus Voss与橡实剪枝象C.ursulus Roelofs等常被误认为隶属于同族的Mecorhis或Mechoris属。通过查阅相关文献和我国多地所采集的标本,本文旨在厘清剪枝象的有效学名,并对栗实剪枝象和橡实剪枝象的形态和生态特征进行了补充,以便提供更准确的鉴别特征。结果如下:(1)剪枝象属拉丁学名为Cyllorhynchites Voss,而非Mecorhis Billberg或Mechoris。栗实剪枝象与橡实剪枝象的中文学名以寄主命名。(2)栗实剪枝象成虫身体蓝黑色,鞘翅上的白色短柔毛稀疏且行纹明显。幼虫体长6.0-9.0 mm,触角感觉器长矛状;额背面的刚毛仅有2对,标记为fs4,fs5;头盖背面无刚毛;上唇及唇基较窄。分布于黄河以南,主要以栗属植物为寄主。在安徽金寨,栗实剪枝象的羽化期在5月底-6月底,成虫羽化后即可交配、产卵,产卵期和剪枝期在6月-7月上旬。橡实剪枝象成虫身体黑褐色,但足为褐色。鞘翅上的黄色短柔毛较密且行纹不明显。幼虫体长8.0-10.0 mm,触角感觉器长圆锥状;额背面的刚毛仅有1对,标记为fs5;头盖背面的刚毛仅有1对,标记为des5;上唇及唇基较宽。广布中国南北和日本、朝鲜半岛,以栎属和青冈属植物为寄主。在四川都江堰,橡实剪枝象的羽化期在6月-7月。由于橡子尚未发育,其成虫羽化后需经历较长的营养补充期,产卵期和剪枝期在8月中旬-9月底。本研究澄清了过去关于剪枝象属的分类归属,并对两种常见剪枝象的形态和生态特征进行了深入比较,为生产上准确鉴别这些剪枝象种类提供参考。