Estimating developmental and mortality rates and stage recruitment from insect stage-frequency data

A model for the analysis of insect stage-frequency data is developed which includes stage-specific variable developmental periods and stage-specific daily survival rates. The model can predict the development of an insect population through its developmental stages and consequently may form the basis for a simulation model of the population.     

Theoretical studies on the role of food exploitation for the competition of scaamble type

A model was made to clarify the basic processes of competition to occur among larvae by the exploitation as defined byBakker (1969). It was found that this model is applicable to the experimental results on the food exploitation among Droshophila larvae obtained byBakker (1961). In the model the preimaginal stage is divided into two periods;T_f which is the time that a group of larvae spends in exhausting the food after hatching, and T_s which is the duration of the starvation period after T_f.T_f and then W_l (larval body weight) just after the end of T_f are decided by F_s (amount of food supplied per larva at larval hatching) and F_c (amount of food consumed per larva).T_f affects on the onset of T_s as well as R_l (rate of decrease in the individual body weight during T_s).W_a (weight of emerging adults) is gotten by a subtraction of R_l from W_l just after the end of T_f,R_e is affected directly by these components of W_l and R_l. As a result, W_a and R_e are expressed by functions of F_s. This model confirmed that the food exploitation lead to the competition of scramble type. Finally it was suggested that there exist some strategies which prevent ill-effects owing to the food exploitation.     

Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with seasonal forcing

We study the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent forcing using analytic techniques which allow us to disentangle the interaction of stochasticity and external forcing. The model is formulated as a continuous time Markov process, which is decomposed into a deterministic dynamics together with stochastic corrections, by using an expansion in inverse system size. The forcing induces a limit cycle in the deterministic dynamics, and a complete analysis of the fluctuations about this time-dependent solution is given. This analysis is applied when the limit cycle is annual, and after a period doubling when it is biennial. The comprehensive nature of our approach allows us to give a coherent picture of the dynamics which unifies past work, but which also provides a systematic method for predicting the periods of oscillations seen in whooping cough and measles epidemics.     

Flora and vegetation at about A.D. 1100 in the vicinity of Brno, Czech Republic

The paper presents and evaluates the results of macroscopic and pollen analyses of a buried organic layer at the confluence of the Svitava and Svratka rivers on the southern margin of the Brno City, southern Moravia, Czech Republic. The layer was covered with about 4 m of flood-loams and dates to ca. A.D. 1100. Remains of nearly 100 vascular plants and about 40 mosses contribute to the knowledge of the medieval flora, vegetation and environment in the vicinity of Brno as continuous settlement began in the city area and as the upstream landscapes were colonised.