Flood Risk Analysis Based on Information Diffusion Theory

Due to the fact that the flood data series of small drainage basins is relatively short, available data are often not sufficient for flood risk analysis. This presents the problem of risk analysis using very small data samples. One method that can be applied is to regard the available small samples as fuzzy information and optimize them using information diffusion technology to yield analytical results with greater reliability. In this article a risk analysis method based on information diffusion theory is applied to create a new flood risk analysis model. Application of the model is illustrated taking the Jinhuajiang and Qujiang drainage basins as examples. This is a new attempt at applying information diffusion theory in flood risk analysis. Computations based on this analytical flood risk model can yield an estimated flood damage value that is relatively accurate. This study indicates that the aforementioned model exhibits fairly stable analytical results, even when using a small set of sample data. The results also indicate that information diffusion technology is highly capable of extracting useful information and therefore improves system recognition accuracy. This method can be easily applied and the analytical results produced are easy to understand. Results are accurate enough to act as a guide in disaster situations.     

In Pursuit of Safety: One-Hundred Years of Toxicological Risk Assessment

The publication in 1962 of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring marks the mid-point in a century that saw, in its first half, the emergence of public health concerns related to human exposures to chemicals, and, in its second half, the emergence of public policies to deal with those concerns. Those policies made it imperative that the scientific community come to grips with the problem of identifying exposure levels not likely to cause harm. This problem was not significantly discussed within the scientific community until the 1950s, and well-described methods for practical solutions to it did not appear until the 1970s. An important report from the National Academy of Sciences, published in 1983 (Risk Assessment in the Federal Government), provided an analysis of these emerging methods, and recommended a useful framework for the assessment and management of risk. This framework remains central to public health and regulatory decision-making. A high-level perspective is offered on events leading to and following the 1983 report. The article describes early thinking about chemical toxicity and the scientific path that thinking followed through the 20th century, and to the present.     

A procedure for estimating the surface potential of charged or neutral membranes with 8-anilino-1-naphthalenesulphonate probe. Adequacy of the Gouy-Chapman model

Using the fluorescent anion 8-anilino-1-naphthalenesulphonate (ANS) for determining the membrane surface potential necessitates that the intrinsic affinity constant K_i for the ANS sites be known. Two methods are presented which do not rely on a determination of K_i at high ionic strength. They are respectively applied to neutral membranes (egg phosphatidylcholine liposomes) and highly charged natural ones (horse bean microsomes and liposomes from their phospholipids). The value of K_i appears to be insensitive to the level of occupancy of the sites, the KCl concentration and the pH in large ranges. Furthermore, the classical Gouy-Chapman model seems to describe correctly the whole set of data, provided apparent mean molecular areas larger than the published crystallographic ones are admitted.     

Animal models for respiratory chain disease

Elucidation of the pathogenesis in respiratory chain diseases is of great importance for developing specific treatments. The limitations inherent to the use of patient material make studies of human tissues often difficult and the mouse has therefore emerged as a suitable model organism for studies of respiratory chain diseases. In this review, we present an overview of the field and discuss in depth a few examples of animal models reproducing pathology of human disease with primary and secondary respiratory chain involvement.     

Predator detection and avoidance by starlings under differing scenarios of predation risk

Practically all animals must find food while avoiding predators.An individual's perception of predation risk may depend on manyfactors, such as distance to refuge and group size, but it isunclear whether individuals respond to different factors ina similar manner. We tested whether flocks of foraging starlingsresponded in the same way to an increased perception of predationrisk by assessing three factors: (1) neighbor distances, (2)habitat obstruction, and (3) recent exposure to a predator.We found that in all three scenarios of increased risk, starlingsreduced their interscan intervals (food-searching bouts), whichincreased the frequency of their vigilance periods. We thenexamined how one of these factors, habitat obstruction, affectedescape speed by simulating an attack with a model predator.Starlings were slower to respond in visually obstructed habitats(long grass swards) and slower when they had their head downin obstructed habitats than when they had their head down inopen habitats. In addition, reaction times were quicker whenstarlings could employ their peripheral fields of vision. Ourresults demonstrate that different sources of increased riskcan generate similar behavioral responses within a species.The degree of visibility in the physical and social environmentaffects both the actual and perceived risk of predation.     

Contrast-FEL—A Test for Differences in Selective Pressures at Individual Sites among Clades and Sets of Branches

A number of evolutionary hypotheses can be tested by comparing selective pressures among sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree. When the question of interest is to identify specific sites within genes that may be evolving differently, a common approach is to perform separate analyses on subsets of sequences and compare parameter estimates in a post hoc fashion. This approach is statistically suboptimal and not always applicable. Here, we develop a simple extension of a popular fixed effects likelihood method in the context of codon-based evolutionary phylogenetic maximum likelihood testing, Contrast-FEL. It is suitable for identifying individual alignment sites where any among the K≥2 sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree have detectably different ω ratios, indicative of different selective regimes. Using extensive simulations, we show that Contrast-FEL delivers good power, exceeding 90% for sufficiently large differences, while maintaining tight control over false positive rates, when the model is correctly specified. We conclude by applying Contrast-FEL to data from five previously published studies spanning a diverse range of organisms and focusing on different evolutionary questions.     

Semiparametric Regression in Size-Biased Sampling

Summary .  Size-biased sampling arises when a positive-valued outcome variable is sampled with selection probability proportional to its size. In this article, we propose a semiparametric linear regression model to analyze size-biased outcomes. In our proposed model, the regression parameters of covariates are of major interest, while the distribution of random errors is unspecified. Under the proposed model, we discover that regression parameters are invariant regardless of size-biased sampling. Following this invariance property, we develop a simple estimation procedure for inferences. Our proposed methods are evaluated in simulation studies and applied to two real data analyses.     

Spatial and temporal factors associated with nest survival of Gray Flycatchers in managed ponderosa pine forests

Gray Flycatchers (Empidonax wrightii) breed in a variety of habitats in the arid and semi‐arid regions of the western United States, but little is known about their breeding biology, especially in the northern portion of their range where they nest in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. From May to July 2014 and 2015, we conducted surveys for singing male Gray Flycatchers along the eastern slope of the Cascade Range in Washington, U.S.A, monitored flycatcher nests, and quantified nest‐site vegetation. We used a logistic‐exposure model fit within a Bayesian framework to model the daily survival probability of flycatcher nests. During the 2 yr of our study, we monitored 141 nests, with 93% in ponderosa pines. Mean clutch size was 3.6 eggs and the mean number of young fledged per nest was 3.2. Predation accounted for 90% of failed nests. We found a positive association between daily nest survival and both nest height and distance of nest substrates from the nearest tree. Flycatchers that locate their nests higher above the ground and further from adjacent trees may be choosing the safest alternative because higher nests may be less exposed to terrestrial predators and nests in trees that are farther from other trees may be less exposed to arboreal predators such as jays (Corvidae) that may forage in patches with connected canopies. Nests in trees farther from other trees may also allow earlier detection of approaching predators and thus aid in nest defense.