Intelligent Decision-Making Models for Disaster Management

ABSTRACT

Providing emergency relief to the victims of natural disasters is a hugely complex process fraught with many challenging aspects: multiple uncertainties, little reliable information, scarcity of resources, a variety of involved entities, and so on. Nowadays there is a lot of information that could be used to improve decision-making in disaster management, but usually it is not available at the right moment, in the right way, or it is partially known or vague. In this article we analyze the decision-making process for disaster management from the general view of intelligent decision-making to the specific characteristics of this context. This specificity deals with a new kind of logistics, and it is shown how this humanitarian logistics, specifically designed with the aim of alleviating suffering of vulnerable people, is a growing new research area to develop new decision aid models for disaster management, identifying new and relevant differences with other types of logistics. To illustrate these claims, two models are introduced, one for assessment of consequences in the earlier stage after a disaster (focused on the unknown, one of the main characteristics in disaster management), and another one for last mile distribution of humanitarian aid (focused on the multicriteria nature of decision-making on disaster management).     

The limitation of IL-10-exposed dendritic cells in the treatment of experimental autoimmune myasthenia gravis and myasthenia gravis

Dendritic cells (DC) are highly specialized antigen presenting cells that play critical roles as instigators and regulators of immune responses including B cell function, antibody synthesis and isotype switch. In this study, we compared immunotherapeutic effect of IL-10-treated DC (IL-10-DC) via both intraperitoneal (i.p.) and subcutaneous (s.c.) delivery in rats with incipient experimental autoimmune myasthenia gravis (EAMG). Spleen DC were isolated from onset of EAMG on day 39 post-immunization, exposed in vitro to IL-10, and then injected into incipient EAMG at dose of 1 x 10(6) cells/rat on day 5 after immunization. Intraperitoneal administration of IL-10-DC suppressed clinical scores, anti-acetylcholine receptors (AChR) antibody secreting cells, antigen-specific IL-10/IFN-gamma production and T cell proliferation compared to control EAMG rats. Importantly, IL-10-DC, if given by s.c. route, failed to ameliorate clinical sign of EAMG. Simultaneously, T cell proliferation, anti-AChR antibody secreting cells and IL-10/IFN-gamma production had no alteration, as compared to control EAMG rats. Both in vitro and in vivo experiments showed that treatment of IL-10 inhibited the migration of DC toward MIP-3beta and lymph node, indicating that in vitro manipulation of DC with IL-10 alters the migration of DC that influences the therapeutic effect in the treatment of autoimmune diseases. In MG patients, neither the improvement of clinical symptom nor the alteration of immunological parameter was observed through s.c. delivery of IL-10-DC, suggesting the limitation of IL-10-DC in the treatment of MG patients.     

Attempt at computer modeling of evolution of the human society

A model of evolution of human society and biosphere, which is based on concepts of V.I. Vernadskii and of L.N. Gumilev about ethnogenesis has been developed and studied. The mathematical apparatus of the model is composition of finite stochastic automats. By using this model, a possibility of the global ecological crisis is demonstrated in the case of preservation of the current tendencies of interaction of the biosphere and the human civilization.     

The Primary Lower Gypsum in the Mediterranean: A new facies interpretation for the first stage of the Messinian salinity crisis

The detailed facies and physical stratigraphic analysis of the Primary Lower Gypsum in the Mediterranean indicates a surprising bed-by-bed correlation at basin-scale (Spain, Italy, Hellenic arc and Cyprus arc), that is tuned to the orbital calibration for the first stage of the Messinian salinity crisis from 5.96 to 5.61 Ma ago. A total of 16, precessionally-controlled, gypsum cycles were deposited rapidly in less than 350 ka, forming sequences up to 300 m thick. The lack of subaerial exposure features and the common facies associations and stacking pattern for sections located thousands of kilometers apart in different geological settings indicates a modest depositional depth, not extremely shallow. Selenite deposition occurred only at the bottom of restricted marginal basins less than 200 m deep, while no gypsum could precipitate in the deeper euxinic Mediterranean portions where only thin and barren shale/dolostone couplets formed. The lowermost selenite beds pass laterally to dolomite-rich limestones interbedded with barren euxinic shales in poorly oxygenated settings, indicating that the gypsum sedimentation was diachronous and did not necessarily mark the onset on the Messinian salinity crisis.Evaporite facies sequences (EF1 to 8) within individual gypsum beds show small-scale, subaqueous sedimentary cycles that mimic regressive-transgressive cycles: a) initial evaporite precipitation at relatively low supersaturation produced the massive selenite (facies EF3) in a relatively deep setting; b) continuous evaporation and drawdown by oscillating brine level formed the banded selenite (EF4) at the aridity acme of the precessionally-controlled cycle; c) general progressive brine level rise with strong brine flow led to the formation of large selenite supercones branching laterally (supercones in Spain and branching selenite, EF5, in the rest of the Mediterranean); and d) flooding by undersaturated continental water terminated gypsum precipitation with the deposition of argillaceous sediments (EF1, Northern Apennines), and/or limestone (EF2, Sicily and Spain) during the humid phase in the precession climate cycle.The stacking pattern and selenite facies associations suggest an overall shallowing-upward trend with a basin-wide hydrologic change starting from the 6th cycle (5.84 Ma), which is marked by the appearance of the branching selenite facies (supercones) in Spain and indicates that the brines became current-dominated. The Sr-isotope stratigraphy suggests that in the Northern Apennines the brines were strongly modified by continental waters (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.708893 to 0.708998), and received direct pulses of Atlantic seawater (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.70900 to 0.709024) only in the upper part of the section. In areas away from the mainland, such as Sicily, the continental input was by far less important.     

Biofuel technologies: Lessons learned and pathways to decarbonization

This Opinion highlights several successful cases of biofuel technologies recently described by the IEA Bioenergy Intertask Report on Lessons Learned. The report discussed the potential of biofuels to contribute to a significant market supply, thus replacing fossil fuels and mitigating global warming, and it underscores the challenges in expanding biofuel production and replicating successful models between countries and regions. Based on the lessons learned from conventional, established technologies, the authors analyzed policies, feedstocks, products, technologies, economics, environmental concerns, social aspects, scalability, and ease of implementation and replication in different countries or regions. There are blending mandates in place around the world to foster the use of biofuels. Dependence on the availability and price fluctuations of crop feedstocks may limit biofuel production in certain circumstances. Legal restrictions on using food crops as feedstocks present obstacles to scaling up production. Temporary constraints related to feedstock costs and availability, as evidenced by changes and postponements of biofuel blending mandates in various countries (particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic) also pose challenges. Technological hurdles exist for advanced biofuels that implicate premium pricing. Still, 2G ethanol from sugarcane meets very strict feedstock requirements with a carbon footprint so low that only electric vehicles charged in Norway could have life-cycle GHG emissions at the same level as a 2G ethanol-fueled combustion engine car. The authors evaluate whether and how much electrification could contribute to advance the decarbonization efforts in different countries. Drawing from these observations, the authors express their viewpoints to assist researchers and policymakers in the energy sector in formulating viable approaches to combat the climate crisis.     

Insights into Neogene Mediterranean biogeography based on phylogenetic relationships of mountain and lowland lineages of Narcissus (Amaryllidaceae)

Aim Our aims were: (1) to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships of daffodils (Narcissus), focusing on the lowland subgenus Hermione and the mountain section Apodanthi; (2) to estimate the temporal setting of diversification; (3) to reconstruct the migration patterns of the lineages; and (4) to examine the microevolutionary differentiation of the wide‐ranging Narcissus tazetta group across the Mediterranean. Location The Mediterranean Basin. Methods Plastid (trnT–L, trnL–F and ndhF) sequences were obtained from 63 populations representing 23 species of Narcissus and combined with published data from 16 species. Phylogenetic relationships and dating were inferred by Bayesian analysis based on geological events and divergence estimates of closely related taxa. A dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis analysis was performed using maximum likelihood methods to infer ancestral geographical distributions, and phylogeographical reconstruction was performed using coalescence analysis. Results Subgenus Hermione is not recognized as a monophyletic group because two of the nine species were found to have a close relationship with the subgenus Narcissus. The results on section Apodanthi confirmed previous findings of its monophyly and phylogenetic relationships within this mountain group. Molecular dating and ancestral range reconstructions suggest that the ancestor of Narcissus originated in the Iberian Peninsula during the Late Oligocene–Early Miocene. Eastward expansion of the lineage range proceeded from the western Mediterranean and involved colonization of mountain ranges in northern Africa. The phylogeography of the N. tazetta group revealed a widespread distribution of certain haplotypes, suggesting wide dispersal and a high level of colonization in the Mediterranean Basin. Main conclusions Our study points to the role of three key historical events in Narcissus diversification: tectonic shifts of the Alboran domain in the western Mediterranean, the Messinian salinity crisis, and the onset of the Mediterranean climate followed by periods of repeated glaciation. Diversification of section Apodanthi probably resulted from allopatric speciation, while subgenus Hermione may have shown more sympatric speciation and high dispersal, despite the lack of apparent adaptations to long‐distance dispersal. This is best exemplified by the presence of both ancestral and recent haplotypes of N. tazetta across the Mediterranean.     

西北地区生物多样性特点及其研究思路

在探讨西北地区生物多样性特点的基础上,院述了西北地区生物多样保护研究的现状,分析了生物多样性面临的危机。在此基础上,提出了西北地区生物多样性研究的方向和具体思路：１．编目和监测系统研究;２．稀有濒危动植物的保护生物学研究;３．迁地保护和人工繁育,扩大人工种群的研究;４．生物多样性恢复的研究;５．生物多样性持续利用研究。     

Lifecycle effects of a recession on health behaviors: Boom,bust, and recovery in Iceland

This study uses individual-level longitudinal data from Iceland, a country that experienced a severe economic crisis in 2008 and substantial recovery by 2012, to investigate the extent to which the effects of a recession on health behaviors are lingering or short-lived and to explore trajectories in health behaviors from pre-crisis boom, to crisis, to recovery. Health-compromising behaviors (smoking, heavy drinking, sugared soft drinks, sweets, fast food, and tanning) declined during the crisis, and all but sweets continued to decline during the recovery. Health-promoting behaviors (consumption of fruit, fish oil, and vitamins/minerals and getting recommended sleep) followed more idiosyncratic paths. Overall, most behaviors reverted back to their pre-crisis levels or trends during the recovery, and these short-term deviations in trajectories were probably too short-lived in this recession to have major impacts on health or mortality. A notable exception is for binge drinking, which declined by 10% during the 2 crisis years, continued to fall (at a slower rate of 8%) during the 3 recovery years, and did not revert back to the upward pre-crisis trend during our observation period. These lingering effects, which directionally run counter to the pre-crisis upward trend in consumption and do not reflect price increases during the recovery period, suggest that alcohol is a potential pathway by which recessions improve health and/or reduce mortality.     

Energy and the structure of social institutions

The energy crisis is an aspect of the larger approaching crisis of expanding industrial society in a world in which certain critical parameters are finite. This megacrisis involves the role of growth in population, production, consumption, and waste. The insitutions of modern industrial society have been better adapted to promote this growth than to control or direct it. Even in societies where mechanisms of state planning should, in theory, enable government to deal rationally with the growth problem, ideological commitments to general growth have, in effect, prevented the problem from being addressed. In the United States, the pervasive commitment to growth has been built into institutional arrangements to a degree that handicaps efforts to consider the energy problem in its full context. Energy policy therefore tends to be reactive to events rather than the result of a comprehensive long-range assessment of needs and priorities. Presented at the 140th Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Session on Energy and Society, San Francisco Hilton Hotel, February 24 to March 2, 1974. Revised and extended for publication inHuman Ecology. Arthur F. Bentley Professor of Political Science and Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana.     

Effects of the great recession on drugs consumption in Spain

This paper presents evidence on how the consumption of legal and illegal drugs has changed in response to the Great Recession in Spain. We use a large scale survey from 2005 to 2011 to analyze the association between changes in local economic conditions and drug consumption among individuals aged 15–64. Although Spain was one of the countries hardest hit by the economic downturn, the crisis was unevenly felt across the country. Therefore, we exploit this difference in unemployment rates across provinces to identify the effects of business cycle variations on the consumption of legal and illegal drugs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to find a relation between the deterioration of local economic conditions and a strong increase in the consumption of marihuana and cocaine. We also report a decrease in alcohol consumption but a significant escalation in abusive smoking behavior (smoking every day). We believe that these findings are important not only for the potential negative implications at the individual level but also for the costs to society as a whole.