Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population

Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature‐dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900–2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%–93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%–43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%–64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up‐to‐date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.     

Greater growth stability of trees in marginal habitats suggests a patchy pattern of population loss and retention in response to increased drought at the rear edge

Species rear range edges are predicted to retract as climate warms, yet evidence of population persistence is accumulating. Accounting for this disparity is essential to enable prediction and planning for species’ range retractions. At the Mediterranean edge of European beech‐dominated temperate forest, we tested the hypothesis that individual performance should decline at the limit of the species’ ecological tolerance in response to increased drought. We sampled 40 populations in a crossed factor design of geographical and ecological marginality and assessed tree growth resilience and decline in response to recent drought. Drought impacts occurred across the rear edge, but tree growth stability was unexpectedly high in geographically isolated marginal habitat and lower than anticipated in the species’ continuous range and better‐quality habitat. Our findings demonstrate that, at the rear edge, range shifts will be highly uneven and characterised by reduction in population density with local population retention rather than abrupt range retractions.     

Resilience of ecosystem processes: a new approach shows that functional redundancy of biological control services is reduced by landscape simplification

Functional redundancy can increase the resilience of ecosystem processes by providing insurance against species loss and the effects of abundance fluctuations. However, due to the difficulty of assessing individual species’ contributions and the lack of a metric allowing for a quantification of redundancy within communities, few attempts have been made to estimate redundancy for individual ecosystem processes. We present a new method linking interaction metrics with metabolic theory that allows for a quantification of redundancy at the level of ecosystem processes. Using this approach, redundancy in the predation on aphids and other prey by natural enemies across a landscape heterogeneity gradient was estimated. Functional redundancy of predators was high in heterogeneous landscapes, low in homogeneous landscapes and scaled with predator specialisation. Our approach allows quantifying functional redundancy within communities and can be used to assess the role of functional redundancy across a wide variety of ecosystem processes and environmental factors.     

基于潜意识理论的青少年网络成瘾研究

本文综述了青少年网络成瘾的预防和戒除方法,坚持了"习惯说",保留了对"疾病说"的看法。基于潜意识理论,将网络成瘾视为心理亚健康状态,分析了青少年网络成瘾的发生机理、提出了其预防和戒除原则。青少年网络成瘾的成因是心理上的缺失感,与青少年自我防护意识差、自我控制能力小、心理弹性弱,以及潜意识具有反复影响才可改变的特点有关。戒除网络成瘾的原则是淡化评判试测的标准、分散注意力、培养成就感、增强自信心、坚持以心治心等。     

Taking the pulse of nations: A biometric measure of well-being

A growing literature identifies associations between subjective and biometric indicators of wellbeing. These associations, together with the ability of subjective wellbeing metrics to predict health and behavioral outcomes, have spawned increasing interest in wellbeing as an important concept in its own right. However, some social scientists continue to question the usefulness of wellbeing metrics. We contribute to this literature in three ways. First, we introduce a biometric measure of wellbeing – pulse – that hs been little used. Using nationally representative data on 165,000 individuals from the Health Survey for England and Scottish Health Surveys we show that its correlates are similar in a number of ways to those for happiness, and that it is highly correlated with wellbeing metrics, as well as self-assessed health. Second, we examine the determinants of pulse rates in mid-life (age 42) among the 9000 members of the National Child Development Study, a birth cohort born in a single week in 1958 in Britain. Third, we track the impact of pulse measured in mid-life (age 42) on health and labor market outcomes at age 50 in 2008 and age 55 in 2013. The probability of working at age 55 is negatively impacted by pulse rate a decade earlier. The pulse rate has an impact over and above chronic pain measured at age 42. General health at 55 is lower the higher the pulse rate at age 42, while those with higher pulse rates at 42 also express lower life satisfaction and more pessimism about the future at age 50. Taken together, these results suggest social scientists can learn a great deal by adding pulse rates to the metrics they use when evaluating people’s wellbeing.     

People versus machines: The impact of being in an automatable job on Australian worker’s mental health and life satisfaction

This study explores the effect on mental health and life satisfaction of working in an automatable job. We utilise an Australian panel dataset (HILDA), and take a fixed effects linear regression approach, to relate a person being in automatable work to proxies of their wellbeing. Overall, we find evidence that automatable work has a small, detrimental impact on the mental health and life satisfaction of workers within some industries, particularly those with higher levels of job automation risk, such as manufacturing. Furthermore, we find no strong trends to suggest that any particular demographic group is disproportionately impacted across industries. These findings are robust to a variety of specifications. We also find evidence of adaptation to these effects after one-year tenure on the job, indicating a limited role for firm policy.     

Response of Amazonian forests to mid-Holocene drought: A model-data comparison

There is a major concern for the fate of Amazonia over the coming century in the face of anthropogenic climate change. A key area of uncertainty is the scale of rainforest dieback to be expected under a future, drier climate. In this study, we use the middle Holocene (ca. 6000 years before present) as an approximate analogue for a drier future, given that palaeoclimate data show much of Amazonia was significantly drier than present at this time. Here, we use an ensemble of climate and vegetation models to explore the sensitivity of Amazonian biomes to mid-Holocene climate change. For this, we employ three dynamic vegetation models (JULES, IBIS, and SDGVM) forced by the bias-corrected mid-Holocene climate simulations from seven models that participated in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3). These model outputs are compared with a multi-proxy palaeoecological dataset to gain a better understanding of where in Amazonia we have most confidence in the mid-Holocene vegetation simulations. A robust feature of all simulations and palaeodata is that the central Amazonian rainforest biome is unaffected by mid-Holocene drought. Greater divergence in mid-Holocene simulations exists in ecotonal eastern and southern Amazonia. Vegetation models driven with climate models that simulate a drier mid-Holocene (100–150 mm per year decrease) better capture the observed (palaeodata) tropical forest dieback in these areas. Based on the relationship between simulated rainfall decrease and vegetation change, we find indications that in southern Amazonia the rate of tropical forest dieback was ~125,000 km² per 100 mm rainfall decrease in the mid-Holocene. This provides a baseline sensitivity of tropical forests to drought for this region (without human-driven changes to greenhouse gases, fire, and deforestation). We highlight the need for more palaeoecological and palaeoclimate data across lowland Amazonia to constrain model responses.     

冠状动脉支架植入患者心理弹性状况调查及与生活质量的关系研究

目的:调查冠状动脉支架植入(ICS)患者心理弹性状况,并分析心理弹性与生活质量的关系。方法:选取2019年3月~2021年4月我院收治的ICS患者120例作为观察组,另选取同期来我院进行健康体检的志愿者80例作为对照组,对比两组患者的生活质量评分,以心理弹性量表(CD-RICS)调查ICS患者的心理弹性状况,采用Pearson相关分析ICS患者生活质量与心理弹性的相关性,采用Logistic回归分析ICS患者心理弹性水平的影响因素。结果:观察组36条目健康调查简表(SF-36)各维度评分及总评分均低于对照组(P<0.05)。120例ICS患者的心理弹性总分为(64.41±5.73)分,心理弹性各维度得分由低到高分别为乐观、力量、坚韧。Pearson相关分析结果表明,ICS患者的生活质量平均分与心理弹性总分呈正相关(P<0.05)。冠心病病程、文化程度、家庭月收入、兴趣爱好数量、居住地对ICS患者的心理弹性得分有影响(P<0.05)。冠心病患病时间≥10年、文化程度为初中及其以下、家庭月收入≤3000元、兴趣爱好为1~2个、居住地为农村是ICS患者心理弹性水平的影响因素(P<0.05)。结论:ICS患者的心理弹性水平一般,且可影响患者生活质量,受到冠心病病程时长、文化程度、家庭收入水平、兴趣爱好、居住地等多种因素影响,应制定合理措施来提高ICS患者的心理弹性,促进患者身心健康。     

长期住院老年精神疾病患者营养状况与认知功能的相关性研究

目的:了解长期住院老年精神疾病患者营养状况及与认知功能的相关性,为临床提供指导。方法:对住院3个月及以上的123例老年精神疾病患者采用简易精神状态检查量表(MMSE)评估认知功能,采用简易微型营养评定精简版(MNA-SF)评估营养状况,并采集一般资料、相关营养生化指标,应用Pearson相关分析MNA-SF评分与MMSE评分的相关性。结果:123例患者中,营养不良风险者67例(54.47%),营养不良者37例(30.08%),营养正常者19例(15.44%)。有认知障碍患者的营养不良发生率显著高于无认知障碍患者营养不良发生率(P<0.05),重度认知障碍者营养不良发生率显著高于轻、中度认知障碍者(P<0.05)。与无认知障碍者比较,中度、重度认知障碍者MNA-SF评分显著降低(P<0.05);与轻度、中度认知障碍者比较,重度认知障碍者MNA-SF评分显著降低(P<0.05)。营养不良者MMSE 6个认知领域评分和认知总评分均显著低于营养不良风险/正常者(P<0.05),Pearson相关分析显示:长期住院老年精神疾病患者MNA-SF评分与MMSE评分呈正相关(r=0.486, P=0.023<0.05)。结论:长期住院老年精神疾病患者营养不良发生率高,且与认知功能密切相关。临床部门需加强老年精神疾病患者,特别是有认知损害老人的营养关切。