Comparing treatments in the presence of crossing survival curves: an application to bone marrow transplantation

Summary .   In some clinical studies comparing treatments in terms of their survival curves, researchers may anticipate that the survival curves will cross at some point, leading to interest in a long-term survival comparison. However, simple comparison of the survival curves at a fixed point may be inefficient, and use of a weighted log-rank test may be overly sensitive to early differences in survival. We formulate the problem as one of testing for differences in survival curves after a prespecified time point, and propose a variety of techniques for testing this hypothesis. We study these methods using simulation and illustrate them on a study comparing survival for autologous and allogeneic bone marrow transplants.     

On the impulsive controllability and bifurcation of a predator-pest model of IPM

From a practical point of view, the most efficient strategy for pest control is to combine an array of techniques to control the wide variety of potential pests that may threaten crops in an approach known as integrated pest management (IPM). In this paper, we propose a predator-prey (pest) model of IPM in which pests are impulsively controlled by means of spraying pesticides (the chemical control) and releasing natural predators (the biological control). It is assumed that the biological and chemical control are used with the same periodicity, but not simultaneously. The functional response of the predator is allowed to be predator-dependent, in the form of a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response, rather than to have a perhaps more classical prey-only dependence. The local and global stability of the pest-eradication periodic solution, as well as the permanence of the system, are obtained under integral conditions which are shown to have biological significance. In a certain limiting case, it is shown that a nontrivial periodic solution emerges via a supercritical bifurcation. Finally, our findings are confirmed by means of numerical simulations.     

堰蜒逃逸行为的影响因子

通过野外和室内实试检测蝘蜒逃逸行为的影响因子。野外研究显示,蝘蜒可接近距离与隐蔽所间距呈显著正相关。与动物体温和基底温度无关;在开阔生境中,成体和幼体的可接近距离相似．而郁闭生境中成体的可接近距离显著大于幼体。室内试验表明。两性蝘蜒的可接近距离差异显著,繁殖期雌体的可接近距离大于雄体。     

Indirect nontarget effects of host-specific biological control agents: Implications for biological control

Classical biological control of weeds currently operates under the assumption that biological control agents are safe (i.e., low risk) if they do not directly attack nontarget species. However, recent studies indicate that even highly host-specific biological control agents can impact nontarget species through indirect effects. This finding has profound implications for biological control. To better understand the causes of these interactions and their implications, we evaluate recent case studies of indirect nontarget effects of biological control agents in the context of theoretical work in community ecology. We find that although particular indirect nontarget effects are extremely difficult to predict, all indirect nontarget effects of host specific biological control agents derive from the nature and strength of the interaction between the biological control agent and the pest. Additionally, recent theoretical work suggests that the degree of impact of a biological control agent on nontarget species is proportional to the agent’s abundance, which will be highest for moderately successful control agents. Therefore, the key to safeguarding against indirect nontarget effects of host-specific biological control agents is to ensure the biological control agents are not only host specific, but also efficacious. Biological control agents that greatly reduce their target species while remaining host-specific will reduce their own populations through density-dependent feedbacks that minimize risks to nontarget species.     

In silico analysis of lactic acid secretion metabolism through the top-down approach: Effect of grouping in enzyme kinetics

A top-down approach is known to be a useful and effective technique for the design and analysis of metabolic systems. In this study, we have constructed a grouped metabolic network forLactococcus lactis under aerobic conditions using grouped enzyme kinetics. To test the usefulness of grouping work, a non-grouped system and grouped systems were compared quantitatively with each other. Here, grouped systems were designed as two groups according to the extent of grouping. The overall simulated flux values in grouped and non-grouped models had pretty similar distribution trends, but the details on flux ratio at the pyruvate branch point showed a little difference. This result indicates that our grouping technique can be used as a good model for complicated metabolic networks, however, for detailed analysis of metabolic network, a more robust mechanism should be considered. In addition to the data for the pyruvate branch point analysis, some major flux control coefficients were obtained in this research.     

The Importance of Type II Error and Falsifiability

Aim. Before intergovernmental consensus under the Rio Declaration in 1992, ignorance of type I errors had been disfavoured in science. However, the Precautionary Principle (PP) counsels the avoidance of type II errors, rather than of type I errors. We need a new academic code for the PP. Material and methods. The risk of extinction has usually been evaluated based on conservative estimates of the present population size. I define the weight of evidence as the extinction risk of Japanese vascular plants based on unbiased estimates. Catch quotas in the fisheries are usually decided by precautionary approach. I calculate the long-term yield and risk of stock collapse under a simple stock dynamics model. Results. The weight of evidence depends on the frequency of grids with size unknown. In a few plant species, rankings based on conservative estimates have differed from rankings based on unbiased estimates. In fishery management, a catch quota based on a precautionary approach proved neither sufficient nor necessary to avoid stock collapse. The precautionary approach is one of the reasons that prevent us from maximizing a sustainable yield. Conclusions. We need to clarify the endpoint of risks, and check whether it is necessary to adopt a PP. We can obtain the weight of evidence that is measured under unbiased estimates, while the risk based on a PP is measured under conservative estimates.     

Scoring approach based on fish biomarkers applied to French river monitoring

The aim was to apply a multimarker scoring approach as complementary to freshwater monitoring programmes carried out by the Water Agency Adour-Garonne. Fish (chub, barbel and trout) were collected in 11 sites in rivers in south-west France. Five biomarkers of response were measured either in muscle or brain for acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and in liver for glutathione S-transferase, catalase and 7-ethoxyresorufine O-deethylase. As a result of multivariate analysis, sites were clearly discriminated mainly by 7-ethoxyresorufine O-deethylase and acetylcholinesterase activities. According to the scoring approach, a multimarker pollution index was calculated for each sampling site as the sum of the response index of the five measured biomarkers (pollution index). Sorting was established by ranging the sites from lightly to highly contaminated locations.     

Biotic index for sediment quality assessment of watercourses in Flanders, Belgium

Today, assessment of freshwater sediments in Flanders is based on the TRIAD approach in which physical-chemical, biological and ecotoxicological data are combined. No prior experience existing in Flanders with the biological assessment of the sediment quality, several biotic indices were compared on a first set of 80 samples taken in different types of lowland watercourses. This information resulted in a first selection of suitable indices consisting of a newly created Biotic Sediment Index (BSI) and the Percentage Mentum Deformities in Chironomus (Diptera, Chironomidae larvae). The starting point of the BSI was the Belgian Biotic Index (BBI) based on a combination of the taxa diversity and the presence or absence of specific indicator groups. For the refinement of the BSI, a new set of data related to the benthic macroinvertebrate communities sampled by means of a grab in more than 400 sites was collected. Community analysis by means of multivariate techniques, combining biological information with physical-chemical and ecotoxicological data was the basis for this further refinement and the scientific foundation of the original BSI. Major amendments relate to the scores assigned to the indicator groups. This refined BSI is representative for the degree of pollution, unbiased by the type of sediment and the origin of the river basin. Like the BBI, the BSI scores can vary between 10 (excellent sediment quality) and 0 (very bad sediment quality). The index values can be converted into 4 quality classes to be represented by means of a colour code.     

黑河流域生态经济带分异协调规律与耦合发展模式

在西北干旱地区建设黑河流域生态经济带,是从根本上高效配置流域水资源,彻底化解流域上,下游利益冲突,实现利益共享,保护流域生态环境,推进流域可持续发展,全面实施国务院黑河流域分水方案的重要途径,通过对黑河流域生态经济带上－中－下游投入产出效益的比较分析和流域上、中、下游生态－生产、生活系统发展分异及互动协调关系的分析,提出了黑河流域生态经济带上－中－下游多维互动的协调耦合发展模式,进而提出了黑河流域生态经济带建设与发展的主要途径,包括推进黑河流域经济发展一体化和集成管理公司化,大力推行全流域水资源的差异化有偿使用制度,实施流动上、中、下游的水权转让贸易,实行规范的流域财政转移支付制度,建立流域资源与生态环境和经济的整合帐户体系,实行跨行政区域河流边界水量水质达标交接制度,等等。