The prediction of civil violence to the year 2001

Abstract

Annual predictions of global deaths from civil war to the year 2001 have been made based on an earlier two‐stage cyclical model. In stage one three cycles (8.6, 17.4, and 34 yr) predict to changes in the global political system, while four cycles (5.6, 9.4, 20.5, and 54 yr) predict to changes in the global economic system. In stage two, changes in the political and economic systems predict to changes in the level of civil violence. Fifteen regression equations, four tables, and six diagrams are included with the text     

High risk water pollution hazards affecting Aveiro coastal lagoon (Portugal) – A habitat risk assessment using InVEST

Anthropogenic pressures put at jeopardy ecosystem services (ES) provided by natural habitats. Ecosystem Based Management (EBM) approaches can support policymakers dealing with physical, chemical, and biological stresses caused by high-risk water pollution (HRWP) and sudden-accidental pollution (SAP). The objective of this study is to evaluate how alarming HRWP pressures might become in fragile marine, coastal, estuarine, and freshwater socio-ecological systems (MCEF-SES) surrounded by heavily industrialized and urbanized areas. To this end a spatially explicit analysis, using the InVEST-Habitat Risk Assessment (InVEST-HRA) model in combination with expert judgement from researchers from various fields, is performed. An application is provided for the case of the Ria de Aveiro (RdA) coastal lagoon in Portugal. Results show high spatial variance of HRWP hazards across RdA, with one major multi-layer risk hotspot at the center of the research area and a second patch of multiple risk hotspots towards the North of RdA. Salines emerge as the most threatened habitat followed by Intertidal flats and Saltmarshes. The most significant water pollution risk sources contributing to Salines cumulative risk are Fossil fuel processing, storage and sale units, Industrial units, Aquaculture, and the Marinas. Industries involving dangerous substances in the region threaten primarily Watercourses. This study confirms the InVEST-HRA model in combination with expert judgement is a transparent and easily replicable approach to build ES-based knowledge about habitat risks threatening MCEF-SES in a Natura 2000 site heavily pressured by HRWP hazards. After further valuation analysis, pondering gains and losses from regional development and environmental protection, this knowledge can support the planning and management of coastal areas and the prioritization of pollution abatement interventions. In particular, by estimating the loss that HRWP causes in the value of ecosystem services, defining HRWP abatement policies, assessing the effectiveness, costs and benefits of those abatement policies and, ultimately, evaluating the results for the well-being of local communities through global efficiency analysis, cost-benefit analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis. Hence, it bridges the gap between an informed EBM and the development policies of fragile regions.     

From a civil engineering project to an ecological engineering project: An historical perspective from the Mont Saint Michel bay (France)

Because of an excess of sedimentation due to natural and anthropogenic causes, the Mont Saint Michel (France) is becoming less frequently surrounded by seawater during high tide events. This prestigious monument and its bay have both been recognized by multiple national and international institutions for cultural and ecological richness. Diverse human activities such as tourism, fisheries, and farming also occupy the Mont Saint Michel Bay. The French government has been faced with a challenge of preserving the integrity of the bay, while restoring the ‘insularity’ of what used to be an island, the Mont Saint Michel. The objective of this paper is primarily to demonstrate how environmental scientists and ecologists influenced a typical civil engineering project and modified it into a civil/ecological engineering project, more respectful of both environment and human interests. To achieve this objective, we first retrace the formation of the Mont Saint Michel Bay, under both geological and historical perspectives, to provide the necessary background for the understanding of the actual restoration project. Some of the first projects that were proposed were designed to destroy the area of salt marshes that surrounded the Mont Saint Michel, with no consideration for the ecological integrity of the site. We conclude by presenting the current project in which France will invest over 130 million USD in the next few years. If this final project cannot be recognized truly as an ecological engineering project, it has the merit of being a compromise between various partnerships which have been debating for more than a century.