Causal inference and large-scale expert validation shed light on the drivers of SDM accuracy and variance

Aim

To develop a causal understanding of the drivers of Species distribution model (SDM) performance.

Location

United Kingdom (UK).

Methods

We measured the accuracy and variance of SDMs fitted for 518 species of invertebrate and plant in the UK. Our measure of variance reflects variation among replicate model fits, and taxon experts assessed model accuracy. Using directed acyclic graphs, we developed a causal model depicting plausible effects of explanatory variables (e.g. species' prevalence, sample size) on SDM accuracy and variance and quantified those effects using a multilevel piecewise path model.

Results

According to our model, sample size and niche completeness (proportion of a species' niche covered by sampling) directly affect SDM accuracy and variance. Prevalence and range completeness have indirect effects mediated by sample size. Challenging conventional wisdom, we found that the effect of prevalence on SDM accuracy is positive. This reflects the facts that sample size has a positive effect on accuracy and larger sample sizes are possible for widespread species. It is possible, however, that the omission of an unobserved confounder biased this effect. Previous studies, which reported negative correlations between prevalence and SDM accuracy, conditioned on sample size.

Main conclusions

Our model explicates the causal basis of previously reported correlations between SDM performance and species/data characteristics. It also suggests that niche completeness has similarly large effects on SDM accuracy and variance as sample size. Analysts should consider niche completeness, or proxies thereof, in addition to sample size when deciding whether modelling is worthwhile.     

AGE, GROWTH, AND REPRODUCTION OF THE FINLESS PORPOISE, NEOPHOCAENA PHOCAENOIDES, IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN KYUSHU, JAPAN

Abstract: In the coastal waters of western Kyushu, Japan, a total of 97 incidentally taken or stranded finless porpoises, Neophocaena phocaenoides , was collected for studying age, growth and reproduction. An additional 17 specimens from the Inland Sea were used for a comparison of life history. Mean neonatal body length was 78.2 cm. Both males and females grew to around 140 cm by 5 yr of age. The maximum body lengths of males and females in western Kyushu were 174.5 cm and 165.0 cm, respectively, which were smaller than those recorded in other Japanese waters. Females probably attain sexual maturity at ages of 6–9 yr and at body lengths of 135–145 cm. Males probably mature sexually at ages of 4–6 yr, at body lengths of 135–140 cm and at weight of testis of 40–150 g. The lack of females aged 5–6 yr and males aged 4–5 yr precluded firm conclusions on ages at sexual maturity. Parturition in western Kyushu was estimated to be prolonged from autumn to spring, whereas in the Inland Sea and Pacific waters it was restricted from spring to summer with a peak in April. These geographical differences and available information on distribution implies that the finless porpoises in western Kyushu constitute a local population.     

定量分析调控人类免疫缺陷病毒潜伏与激活的动力学机制

目的 治疗艾滋病最大的障碍在于无法根除人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）潜伏于人体细胞所形成的病毒存储库。构建描述病毒存储库建立分子机制的动力学模型需考虑生物体内的噪声环境和多重影响因素,本文通过一种全新的动力学结构分解方法将随机微分方程的确定性部分与随机性噪声分开,从而在仅需分析常微分方程不动点的情况下即可判断不同药物靶点的作用效果。方法 使用连续的随机微分方程构建了HIV转录过程的动力学模型,简化了描述系统所需方程的维度,增大了模型的可探索空间,在此基础上,通过计算得到的势能函数和概率分布函数直观表示病毒潜伏与激活的不同表达状态以及它们之间的关系。结果 定量分析了不同动力学参数对系统稳态和势函数的影响程度,分别得到了系统处于双稳态和单稳态时的参数范围,并将不同因素对动力系统分岔的影响程度与生物学实验结果对比,验证了本工作的理论基础。结论 本文突破了以往离散、随机的方法,可以通过常微分方程定量分析HIV转录调控的动力学机制,有利于推广到处理高维情况,进一步研究艾滋病在生物体内的发生发展,从而指导设计实验寻找临床上的治疗方案。     

Evaluation of Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy for data capture in predictive microbiology

Chemical changes in the medium, induced by the fermentative species Lactobacillus plantarum and Lactobacillus brevis and by the enzymatic action of a proteolytic, spoilage species, Yarrowia lipolytica, were analysed using Fourier-transform i.r. spectroscopy (FTIR). Changes in the absorbance data over time could be modelled using one of the more current predictive, mathematical models of microbial growth, such as the Gompertz equation. Moreover, a linear correlation between FTIR data (expressed as absorbance of some selected peaks) and viability data (expressed as log₁₀ c.f.u./g or ml) was observed during the fermentation process, both for L. plantarum and L. brevis.     

Coding of odor intensity in a steady-state deterministic model of an olfactory receptor neuron

The coding of odor intensity by an olfactory receptor neuron model was studied under steady-state stimulation. Our model neuron is an elongated cylinder consisting of the following three components: a sensory dendritic region bearing odorant receptors, a passive region consisting of proximal dendrite and cell body, and an axon. First, analytical solutions are given for the three main physiological responses: (1) odorant-dependent conductance change at the sensory dendrite based on the Michaelis-Menten model, (2) generation and spreading of the receptor potential based on a new solution of the cable equation, and (3) firing frequency based on a Lapicque model. Second, the magnitudes of these responses are analyzed as a function of odorant concentration. Their dependence on chemical, electrical, and geometrical parameters is examined. The only evident gain in magnitude results from the activation-to-conductance conversion. An optimal encoder neuron is presented that suggests that increasing the length of the sensory dendrite beyond about 0.3 space constant does not increase the magnitude of the receptor potential. Third, the sensivities of the responses are examined as functions of (1) the concentration at half-maximum response, (2) the lower and upper concentrations actually discriminated, and (3) the width of the dynamic range. The overall gain in sensitivity results entirely from the conductance-to-voltage conversion. The maximum conductance at the sensory dendrite appears to be the main tuning constant of the neuron because it determines the shift toward low concentrations and the increase in dynamic range. The dynamic range of the model cannot exceed 5.7 log units, for a sensitivity increase at low odor concentration is compensated by a sensitivity decrease at high odor concentration.     

生物种群动态微分方程模型参数估计方法

本文以数值分析和最优化技术的有机结合为基础,提出了一种新的对动态微分方程模型直接进行数据拟合和参数估计方法,并以Logistic微分方程、生物种间竞争关系微分方程以及一种复合形态的Logistic微分方程为例进行了数据拟合试验．结果表明,该方法对各种动态微分方程模型均能进行最优拟合分析并求解其参数．同时发现,以前有的作者〔1,2,3,4,5〕提出的方法所得到的参数估计值存在系统误差且误差较大．     

Prediction of titration properties of structures of a protein derived from molecular dynamics trajectories.

This paper explores the dependence of the molecular dynamics (MD) trajectory of a protein molecule on the titration state assigned to the molecule. Four 100-ps MD trajectories of bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor (BPTI) were generated, starting from two different structures, each of which was held in two different charge states. The two starting structures were the X-ray crystal structure and one of the solution structures determined by NMR, and the charge states differed only in the ionization state of N terminus. Although it is evident that the MD simulations were too short to sample fully the equilibrium distribution of structures in each case, standard Poisson-Boltzmann titration state analysis of the resulting configurations shows general agreement between the overall titration behavior of the protein and the charge state assumed during MD simulation: at pH 7, the total net charge of the protein resulting from the titration analysis is consistently lower for the protein with the N terminus assumed to be neutral than for the protein with the N terminus assumed to be charged. For most of the ionizable residues, the differences in the calculated pKaS among the four trajectories are statistically negligible and remain in good agreement with the data obtained by crystal structure titration and by experiment. The exceptions include the N terminus, which responds directly to the change of its imposed charge; the C terminus, which in the NMR structure interacts strongly with the former; and a few other residues (Arg 1, Glu 7, Tyr 35, and Arg 42) whose pKaS reflect the initial structure and the limited trajectory lengths. This study illustrates the importance of the careful assignment of protonation states at the start of MD simulations and points to the need for simulation methods that allow for the variation of the protonation state in the calculation of equilibrium properties.     

Cooperativity and effects of ionic strength on the binding of sodium n-dodecyl sulphate to lysozyme

The binding of sodium n-dodecyl sulphate to lysozyme has been measured by equilibrium dialysis at 25°C and pH 3.2 over a range of ionic strengts from 0.0119 to 0.2119. Binding isotherms in the region corresponding to ionic binding between the surfactant anions and cationic amino acid residues on the protein have been interpreted in terms of the Hill equation and exhibit positive cooperativity with Hill coefficients in the region of 7–11. The Gibbs energies of binding have been calculated from the Hill binding constants and from the Wyman binding potentials. The stability of the surfactant-protein complexes is discussed in relation to the stability of surfactant micelles. Ionic binding of the surfactant is weakened and hydrophobic binding strengthened by increasing ionic strength.     

Holling's “hungry mantid” model for the invertebrate functional response considered as a Markov process. III. Stable satiation distribution

In this paper, we study an analytical model describing predatory behaviour. It is assumed that the parameter describing the predator's behaviour is its satiation. Using semigroup methods and compactness arguments we prove that a stable satiation distribution is reached if t. Furthermore, using a Trotter-Kato theorem we justify the transition to the much simpler problem that is obtained if the prey biomass tends to zero.