基于SPEI指数的淮河流域干旱时空演变特征及影响研究

运用淮河流域149个气象站1962—2016年逐日气温、降水资料以及历史旱情资料,基于SPEI、EOF和M-K等方法分析淮河流域的干旱时空特征,研究干旱的时空演变规律并揭示其对农业生产的影响。结果表明:(1)基于SPEI得到的干旱频次与受灾、成灾面积的相关性通过了0.1的显著性水平检验,表明SPEI在淮河流域具有较好的适用性;(2)淮河流域干旱发生时间差异明显,干旱次数呈现波动变化,发生重旱和特旱次数占总干旱的比重是20.0%,其中重旱和特旱在1960s比重最大(24.8%),其次是2010s(15.8%),在1980s比重最低(10.0%);(3)干旱的空间分布差异大,淮河流域干旱频率在27.76%—36.04%之间,西北部和东南部发生干旱强度较西南部、东北部及中部低;(4)淮河流域总体呈干旱化的趋势,从中部到四周呈现由高到低递减的趋势变化,且空间模态表现为全区一致型、南北相反型和东西相反型。     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach for combining case-control and prospective studies

Motivated by the absolute risk predictions required in medical decision making and patient counseling, we propose an approach for the combined analysis of case-control and prospective studies of disease risk factors. The approach is hierarchical to account for parameter heterogeneity among studies and among sampling units of the same study. It is based on modeling the retrospective distribution of the covariates given the disease outcome, a strategy that greatly simplifies both the combination of prospective and retrospective studies and the computation of Bayesian predictions in the hierarchical case-control context. Retrospective modeling differentiates our approach from most current strategies for inference on risk factors, which are based on the assumption of a specific prospective model. To ensure modeling flexibility, we propose using a mixture model for the retrospective distributions of the covariates. This leads to a general nonlinear regression family for the implied prospective likelihood. After introducing and motivating our proposal, we present simple results that highlight its relationship with existing approaches, develop Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for inference and prediction, and present an illustration using ovarian cancer data.     

From NMR chemical shifts to amino acid types: Investigation of the predictive power carried by nuclei

An approach to automatic prediction of the amino acid type from NMR chemical shift values of its nuclei is presented here, in the frame of a model to calculate the probability of an amino acid type given the set of chemical shifts. The method relies on systematic use of all chemical shift values contained in the BioMagResBank (BMRB). Two programs were designed, one (BMRB stats) for extracting statistical chemical shift parameters from the BMRB and another one (RESCUE2) for computing the probabilities of each amino acid type, given a set of chemical shifts. The Bayesian prediction scheme presented here is compared to other methods already proposed: PROTYP RESCUE and PLATON and is found to be more sensitive and more specific. Using this scheme, we tested various sets of nuclei. The two nuclei carrying the most information are C(beta) and H(beta), in agreement with observations made in Grzesiek and Bax, 1993. Based on four nuclei: H(beta), C(beta), C(alpha) and C', it is possible to increase correct predictions to a rate of more than 75%. Taking into account the correlations between the nuclei chemical shifts has only a slight impact on the percentage of correct predictions: indeed, the largest correlation coefficients display similar features on all amino acids.     

基于支持向量机的蛋白质同源寡聚体分类研究

基于支持向量机和贝叶斯方法,从蛋白质一级序列出发对蛋白质同源二聚体、同源三聚体、同源四聚体、同源六聚体进行分类研究,结果表明：基于支持向量机, 采用“一对多”和“一对一”策略, 其分类总精度分别为77.36%和93.43%, 分别比基于贝叶斯协方差判别法的分类总精度50.64%提高26.72和42.79个百分点.从而说明支持向量机可用于蛋白质同源寡聚体分类,且是一种非常有效的方法.对于多类蛋白质同源寡聚体分类,基于相同的机器学习方法（如支持向量机）,采用“一对一”策略比“一对多”效果好.同时亦表明蛋白质同源寡聚体一级序列包含四级结构信息.     

Computer simulation studies of the fidelity of DNA polymerases

Computer simulations can provide in principle quantitative correlation between the structures of DNA polymerases and the replication fidelity. This paper describes our progress in this direction. Using several theoretical approaches, including the free energy perturbation (FEP), linear response approximation (LRA), and the empirical valence bond (EVB) methods, we examined the stability of several mismatched base pairs in DNA duplex in aqueous solution, the contribution of binding energy to the fidelity of DNA polymerases beta and T7, and the mechanism and energetics of the polymerization reaction catalyzed by T7 DNA polymerase.     

Hypothesis testing for the genetic background of quantitative traits

The testing of Bayesian point null hypotheses on variance component models have resulted in a tough assignment for which no clear and generally accepted method exists. In this work we present what we believe is a succeeding approach to such a task. It is based on a simple reparameterization of the model in terms of the total variance and the proportion of the additive genetic variance with respect to it, as well as on the explicit inclusion on the prior probability of a discrete component at origin. The reparameterization was used to bypass an arbitrariness related to the impropriety of uninformative priors onto unbounded variables while the discrete component was necessary to overcome the zero probability assigned to sets of null measure by the usual continuous variable models. The method was tested against computer simulations with appealing results.     

Some insights into protein structural class prediction

It has been quite clear that the success rate for predicting protein structural class can be improved significantly by using the algorithms that incorporate the coupling effect among different amino acid components of a protein. However, there is still a lot of confusion in understanding the relationship of these advanced algorithms, such as the least Mahalanobis distance algorithm, the component-coupled algorithm, and the Bayes decision rule. In this communication, a simple, rigorous derivation is provided to prove that the Bayes decision rule introduced recently for protein structural class prediction is completely the same as the earlier component-coupled algorithm. Meanwhile, it is also very clear from the derivative equations that the least Mahalanobis distance algorithm is an approximation of the component-coupled algorithm, also named as the covariant-discriminant algorithm introduced by Chou and Elrod in protein subcellular location prediction (Protein Engineering, 1999; 12:107-118). Clarification of the confusion will help use these powerful algorithms effectively and correctly interpret the results obtained by them, so as to conduce to the further development not only in the structural prediction area, but in some other relevant areas in protein science as well.     

Semiparametric regression modeling with mixtures of Berkson and classical error, with application to fallout from the Nevada test site

We construct Bayesian methods for semiparametric modeling of a monotonic regression function when the predictors are measured with classical error. Berkson error, or a mixture of the two. Such methods require a distribution for the unobserved (latent) predictor, a distribution we also model semiparametrically. Such combinations of semiparametric methods for the dose response as well as the latent variable distribution have not been considered in the measurement error literature for any form of measurement error. In addition, our methods represent a new approach to those problems where the measurement error combines Berkson and classical components. While the methods are general, we develop them around a specific application, namely, the study of thyroid disease in relation to radiation fallout from the Nevada test site. We use this data to illustrate our methods, which suggest a point estimate (posterior mean) of relative risk at high doses nearly double that of previous analyses but that also suggest much greater uncertainty in the relative risk.