Bayesian classification of vegetation types with Gaussian mixture density fitting to indicator values

Question: Is it possible to mathematically classify relevés into vegetation types on the basis of their average indicator values, including the uncertainty of the classification? Location: The Netherlands. Method: A large relevé database was used to develop a method for predicting vegetation types based on indicator values. First, each relevé was classified into a phytosociological association on the basis of its species composition. Additionally, mean indicator values for moisture, nutrients and acidity were computed for each relevé. Thus, the position of each classified relevé was obtained in a three‐dimensional space of indicator values. Fitting the data to so called Gaussian Mixture Models yielded densities of associations as a function of indicator values. Finally, these density functions were used to predict the Bayesian occurrence probabilities of associations for known indicator values. Validation of predictions was performed by using a randomly chosen half of the database for the calibration of densities and the other half for the validation of predicted associations. Results and Conclusions: With indicator values, most reléves were classified correctly into vegetation types at the association level. This was shown using confusion matrices that relate (1) the number of relevés classified into associations based on species composition to (2) those based on indicator values. Misclassified relevés belonged to ecologically similar associations. The method seems very suitable for predictive vegetation models.     

Eco-efficiency

Goal, Scope and Background The eco-efficiency analysis and portfolio is a powerful decision support tool for various strategic and marketing issues. Since its original academic development, the approach has been refined during the last decade and applied to a multitude of projects. BASF, as possibly the most prominent company using and developing this tool, has applied the eco-efficiency approach to more than 300 projects in the last 7 years. One of the greatest difficulties is to cover both dimensions of eco-efficiency (costs or value added and environmental impact) in a comparable manner. This is particularly a challenge for the eco-efficiency analyses of products. Methods In this publication, an important approach and field of application dealing with product decisions based on the combination of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is described in detail. Special emphasis is put on the quantitative assessment of the relation of costs and environmental impacts. In conventional LCA an assessment of environmental impact categories is often made by normalization with inhabitant equivalents. This is necessary to be able to compare the different environmental impact categories, because of each different unit. For the proposed eco-efficiency analysis, the costs of products or processes are also normalized with adapted gross domestic product figures. Results and Discussion The ratio between normalized environmental impact categories and normalized costs (R_E,C) is used for the graphical presentation of the results in an eco-efficiency portfolio. For the interpretation of the results of an eco-efficiency analysis, it is important to distinguish ratios R_E,C which are higher than one from ratios lower than one. In the first case, the environmental impact is higher than the cost impact, while the inverse is true in the second case. This is very important for defining which kind of improvement is needed and defining strategic management decisions. The paper shows a statistical evaluation of the R_E,C factor based on the results of different eco-efficiency analyses made by BASF. For industries based on large material flows (e.g. chemicals, steel, metals, agriculture), the R_E,C factor is typically higher than one. Conclusions and Recommendations This contribution shows that LCC and LCA may be combined in a way that they mirror the concept of eco-efficiency. LCAs that do not consider LCC may be of very limited use for company management. For that very reason, corporations should install a data management system that ensures equal information on both sides of the eco-efficiency coin.     

A synopsis of suggested approaches to address potential competitive interactions between Barred Owls (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Strix varia</Emphasis>) and Spotted Owls (<Emphasis Type="Italic">S. occidentalis</Emphasis>)

The conservation of Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis) populations has been one of the most controversial and visible issues in United States conservation history. Coincident with declines in Spotted Owl populations over the last three decades has been the invasion of Barred Owls (Strix varia) throughout the range of the Northern Spotted Owl (S. o. caurina) and into the range of the California Spotted Owl (S. o. occidentalis). This invasion has confused the reasons behind recent Spotted Owl declines because anecdotal and correlative information strongly suggests that Barred Owls are a new factor influencing the declines. There is great uncertainty about all aspects of the invasion, and this has sparked discussion about appropriate management and research responses regarding the effects of this invasion on Spotted Owls. We present a set of possible responses to address the issue, and we discuss the relative merits of these with regard to their efficacy given the current state of knowledge. We recommend that research specifically aimed at learning more about the interspecific relationships of these two owls throughout the range of sympatry should begin immediately. Approaches that seem unlikely to be useful in the short-term either because they do not facilitate knowledge acquisition, are relatively costly, or would be technically less feasible, should not be considered viable at this time. We believe the consequences of the invasion are potentially dire for the Spotted Owl and that research and management actions, including the use of adaptive management, are required to inform the near- and long-term decision-making process for conservation of Spotted Owls.     

Understory vegetation as an indicator for floodplain forest restoration in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley,U.S.A.

In the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MAV), complete alteration of river‐floodplain hydrology allowed for widespread conversion of forested bottomlands to intensive agriculture, resulting in nearly 80% forest loss. Governmental programs have attempted to restore forest habitat and functions within this altered landscape by the methods of tree planting (afforestation) and local hydrologic enhancement on reclaimed croplands. Early assessments identified factors that influenced whether planting plus tree colonization could establish an overstory community similar to natural bottomland forests. The extent to which afforested sites develop typical understory vegetation has not been evaluated, yet understory composition may be indicative of restored site conditions. As part of a broad study quantifying the ecosystem services gained from restoration efforts, understory vegetation was compared between 37 afforested sites and 26 mature forest sites. Differences in vegetation attributes for species growth forms, wetland indicator classes, and native status were tested with univariate analyses; floristic composition data were analyzed by multivariate techniques. Understory vegetation of restoration sites was generally hydrophytic, but species composition differed from that of mature bottomland forest because of young successional age and differing responses of plant growth forms. Attribute and floristic variation among restoration sites was related to variation in canopy development and local wetness conditions, which in turn reflected both intrinsic site features and outcomes of restoration practices. Thus, understory vegetation is a useful indicator of functional progress in floodplain forest restoration.     

Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.     

如何做合格的“专职”临床药师

在以患者为中心的药学服务阶段,结合我国临床药师的发展现况,认为培养专科临床药师切实可行,更利于我们药师和医院的同步发展,并探讨其工作主要任务和目标的六大方面,以及考核标准的六大方面;最终达到临床药师、医师、护师组成和谐团队,真正为患者提供最好的药学服务的观点。     

比较MoCA和MMSE在卒中后认知功能筛查中的应用

目的：比较蒙特利尔认知评估量表（Montreal Cognitive Assessment,MoCA）和简易智能量表（mini-mental state examination,MMSE）在急性缺血性脑卒中后认知损害筛查中的应用。方法：对65例缺血性脑卒中患者在发病14天内应用简易精神状态检查量表（Mini-mental State Examination,MMSE）和MoCA进行神经心理评估。其中12例患者在发病3-6个月后应用MMSE、MoCA和神经心理成套测验进行神经心理评估。以MMSE〈23分、MoCA〈21为分界值,受教育年限小于12年加1分,文盲加2分。结果：MMSE的平均分值为25.2±4.3,MoCA的平均分值为18.6±5.7。37例患者MoCA评分显示有认知损害,但其中19例患者（29%）MMSE评分显示正常。28例MoCA评估显示认知正常的患者的MMSE评分均显示认知正常。视空间与执行功能、注意和语言重复测试受损最常见,定向和命名受损较少。在3-6个月的随访期内,12例患者中1例诊断为血管性痴呆患者的MoCA的分值上升1分,MMSE分值无变化;5例认知正常患者、3例轻度认知损害无痴呆的患者和3例中度认知损害无痴呆的患者MMSE和MoCA平均分值均有不同程度的上升,视空间与执行功能平均得分值在2次检测中无明显变化。结论：MoCA较MMSE检出血管性认知功能障碍患者敏感性更高,对认知变化更为敏感。