Dependency effects in multi-locus match probabilities

For finite populations, differences in individual histories can cause between-locus allelic dependencies even for unlinked loci. The main motivation for this study is to quantify the effect of such dependencies on genotypic match probabilities. We compare the two-locus match probability, the probability that two individuals (four gametes) chosen at random will have the same genotype at both loci, with the probability computed as the product of the one-locus match probabilities. It is demonstrated that the product rule probability always underestimates the two-locus match probability. For highly mutable minisatellite loci, these probabilities can differ by an order of magnitude or more. A simplified three-locus problem is explored, providing evidence that the degree of under-estimation worsens for more loci.     

Evaluation of an internal positive control for Cryptosporidium and Giardia testing in water samples

AIMS: An internal positive control for Cryptosporidium and Giardia monitoring was evaluated for use in routine water monitoring quality control. The control, known as ColorSeed C&G (BTF Pty Ltd, Sydney, Australia), is a suspension containing exactly 100 Cryptosporidium oocysts and 100 Giardia cysts that have been modified by attachment of Texas Red to the cell wall, allowing them to be differentiated from unmodified oocysts and cysts. The control enables recovery efficiencies to be determined for every water sample analysed. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 494 water samples were seeded with ColorSeed C&G and with unlabelled Cryptosporidium and Giardia and then analysed. Additionally, the robustness of the ColorSeed labelling was challenged with various chemical treatments. Recoveries were significantly lower for the ColorSeed Texas Red labelled Cryptosporidium and Giardia than recoveries of unlabelled Cryptosporidium and Giardia. However, the differences in recoveries were small. On average ColorSeed Cryptosporidium recoveries were 3.3% lower than unlabelled Cryptosporidium, and ColorSeed Giardia recoveries were 4% lower than unlabelled Giardia. CONCLUSIONS: ColorSeed C&G is suitable for use as an internal positive control for routine monitoring of both treated and raw water samples. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The small differences in recoveries are unlikely to limit the usefulness of ColorSeed C&G as an internal positive control. The ColorSeed labelling was found to be robust after different treatments.     

The development of molecular fluorescent switches

Molecular systems in which fluorescence switches between 'on' and 'off' states when driven by chemical stimuli can be designed according to a few principles. The photochemical mechanisms examined are photoinduced electron transfer, internal charge transfer and excimer formation, with emphasis on the first category. These designs open the way to sharp signalling of small chemical species that perform critical biological functions.     

Quantitative assessment of IgG antibodies to Helicobacter pylori and outcome of ischaemic heart disease

Criticisms of serological studies on Helicobacter pylori and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) include: undiagnosed heart disease in live controls; no assessment of severity or outcome of IHD; and qualitative not quantitative measurements of IgG to the bacteria. The aim was to assess quantitatively IgG levels specific for H. pylori (ng ml(-1)) among patients who survived a myocardial infarction (MI) with those who died of IHD. Sera were from four groups: (1) men who survived one MI; (2) men matched for age and socioeconomic background to group 1; (3) individuals who died suddenly of IHD; (4) accidental deaths matched for age and sex to group 3. Levels of IgG to H. pylori increased with age (P<0.005) but were not associated with smoking or socioeconomic groups. There was a correlation between IgG to the bacteria and decreasing socioeconomic levels only among group 1 (P<0.01). IgG levels were higher for subjects who died of heart disease (median=151 ng ml(-1)) compared with survivors (median=88 ng ml(-1)) (P=0.034) and higher for survivors compared with their controls (median=58 ng ml(-1)) (P=0.039). Future serological studies of H. pylori in relation to IHD should be quantitative and severity of disease considered in analyses.     

Effects of autonomic disruption and inactivity on venous vascular function

The effects of autonomic disruption and inactivity were studied on the venous vascular system. Forty-eight subjects, 24 with spinal cord injury (SCI) and 12 sedentary and 12 active able-bodied controls, participated in this study. Peripheral autonomic data were obtained to estimate sympathetic vasomotor control [low-frequency component of systolic blood pressure (LF(SBP))]. Vascular parameters were determined using strain-gauge venous occlusion plethysmography: venous capacitance (VC), venous emptying rate (VER), and total venous outflow (VO(t)). An additional vascular parameter was calculated: venous compliance [(VC/occlusion pressure) x 100]. VC and VO(t) were significantly different (SCI < sedentary < active). VER adjusted for VC was not different for any group comparison, whereas venous compliance was significantly lower in the SCI group than in the able-bodied groups and in the sedentary group compared with the active group. Regression analysis for the total group revealed a significant relationship between LF(SBP) and venous compliance (r = 0.64, P < 0.0001). After controlling for LF(SBP) through analysis of covariance, we found that mean differences for all venous vascular parameters did not change from unadjusted mean values. Our findings suggest that in subjects with SCI, the loss of sympathetic vasomotor tone contributes more than inactivity to reductions in venous vascular function. Heightened VC, VO(t), vasomotor tone, and venous compliance in the active group compared with the sedentary group imply that regular endurance training contributes to optimal venous vascular function and peripheral autonomic integrity.     

Conditional genotypic probabilities for microsatellite loci

Modern forensic DNA profiles are constructed using microsatellites, short tandem repeats of 2-5 bases. In the absence of genetic data on a crime-specific subpopulation, one tool for evaluating profile evidence is the match probability. The match probability is the conditional probability that a random person would have the profile of interest given that the suspect has it and that these people are different members of the same subpopulation. One issue in evaluating the match probability is population differentiation, which can induce coancestry among subpopulation members. Forensic assessments that ignore coancestry typically overstate the strength of evidence against the suspect. Theory has been developed to account for coancestry; assumptions include a steady-state population and a mutation model in which the allelic state after a mutation event is independent of the prior state. Under these assumptions, the joint allelic probabilities within a subpopulation may be approximated by the moments of a Dirichlet distribution. We investigate the adequacy of this approximation for profiled loci that mutate according to a generalized stepwise model. Simulations suggest that the Dirichlet theory can still overstate the evidence against a suspect with a common microsatellite genotype. However, Dirichlet-based estimators were less biased than the product-rule estimator, which ignores coancestry.     

Marker selection for the transmission/disequilibrium test, in recently admixed populations.

Recent admixture between genetically differentiated populations can result in high levels of association between alleles at loci that are <=10 cM apart. The transmission/disequilibrium test (TDT) proposed by Spielman et al. (1993) can be a powerful test of linkage between disease and marker loci in the presence of association and therefore could be a useful test of linkage in admixed populations. The degree of association between alleles at two loci depends on the differences in allele frequencies, at the two loci, in the founding populations; therefore, the choice of marker is important. For a multiallelic marker, one strategy that may improve the power of the TDT is to group marker alleles within a locus, on the basis of information about the founding populations and the admixed population, thereby collapsing the marker into one with fewer alleles. We have examined the consequences of collapsing a microsatellite into a two-allele marker, when two founding populations are assumed for the admixed population, and have found that if there is random mating in the admixed population, then typically there is a collapsing for which the power of the TDT is greater than that for the original microsatellite marker. A method is presented for finding the optimal collapsing that has minimal dependence on the disease and that uses estimates either of marker allele frequencies in the two founding populations or of marker allele frequencies in the current, admixed population and in one of the founding populations. Furthermore, this optimal collapsing is not always the collapsing with the largest difference in allele frequencies in the founding populations. To demonstrate this strategy, we considered a recent data set, published previously, that provides frequency estimates for 30 microsatellites in 13 populations.     

First Approximations of Prescribed Fire Risks Relative to Other Management Techniques Used on Private Lands

Fire is widely recognized as a critical ecological and evolutionary driver that needs to be at the forefront of land management actions if conservation targets are to be met. However, the prevailing view is that prescribed fire is riskier than other land management techniques. Perceived risks associated with the application of fire limits its use and reduces agency support for prescribed burning in the private sector. As a result, considerably less cost-share support is given for prescribed fire compared to mechanical techniques. This study tests the general perception that fire is a riskier technique relative to other land management options. Due to the lack of data available to directly test this notion, we use a combination of approaches including 1) a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for techniques employed in land management, 2) a comparison of fatalities resulting from wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3) an exploration of causal factors responsible for wildland fire-related fatalities. This approach establishes a first approximation of the relative risk of fatality to private citizens using prescribed fire compared to other management techniques that are readily used in ecosystem management. Our data do not support using risks of landowner fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as mechanical (machine-related) equipment, over prescribed fire. Vehicles and heavy machinery are consistently leading reasons for fatalities within occupations selected as proxies for management techniques employed by ranchers and agricultural producers, and also constitute a large proportion of fatalities among firefighters. Our study provides the foundation for agencies to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for prescribed burning on private lands.