Application of the backstepping method to the prediction of increase or decrease of infected population

Background

In mathematical epidemiology, age-structured epidemic models have usually been formulated as the boundary-value problems of the partial differential equations. On the other hand, in engineering, the backstepping method has recently been developed and widely studied by many authors.

Methods

Using the backstepping method, we obtained a boundary feedback control which plays the role of the threshold criteria for the prediction of increase or decrease of newly infected population. Under an assumption that the period of infectiousness is same for all infected individuals (that is, the recovery rate is given by the Dirac delta function multiplied by a sufficiently large positive constant), the prediction method is simplified to the comparison of the numbers of reported cases at the current and previous time steps.

Results

Our prediction method was applied to the reported cases per sentinel of influenza in Japan from 2006 to 2015 and its accuracy was 0.81 (404 correct predictions to the total 500 predictions). It was higher than that of the ARIMA models with different orders of the autoregressive part, differencing and moving-average process. In addition, a proposed method for the estimation of the number of reported cases, which is consistent with our prediction method, was better than that of the best-fitted ARIMA model ARIMA(1,1,0) in the sense of mean square error.

Conclusions

Our prediction method based on the backstepping method can be simplified to the comparison of the numbers of reported cases of the current and previous time steps. In spite of its simplicity, it can provide a good prediction for the spread of influenza in Japan.

     

Age at Transition from Pediatric to Adult Care Has No Relationship with Mortality for Childhood-Onset Type 1 Diabetes in Japan: Diabetes Epidemiology Research International (DERI) Mortality Study

Objective

To follow up Japanese patients with type 1 diabetes for a maximum of 40 years to examine when they transitioned from pediatric care to adult care and to explore whether the attending physician, i.e., pediatrician or internist, was associated with prognosis.

Methods

Participants consisted of 1,299 patients who had been diagnosed as having type 1 diabetes at less than 15 years old between 1965 and 1979 identified through two nationwide surveys. Patients were classified as having received either pediatric care or adult care at the age of 15 and 30, and were compared for differences in mortality associated with the attending physician.

Results

The attending physicians were confirmed for a total of 1,093 patients at the age of 15. Of these patients, 43.8% and 40.3% received pediatric care and adult care, respectively. Of the 569 patients receiving pediatric care, 74.2%, 56.6%, 53.4%, and 51.3% continued with pediatric care at 20, 30, 40, and 50 years old, respectively. The attending physicians (pediatrician or internist) at the age of 15 and 30 had no significant impact on their survival (P = 0. 892, 0.411, respectively).

Conclusions

More than half of the patients who had received pediatric care at the age of 15 continued to receive pediatric care even after the age of 30, suggesting that their transition was far from smooth, while the attending physician at the age of both 15 and 30 was not a prognostic factor for mortality. Thus, the timing for transition to adult care in these patients has no relationship with mortality in Japan.     

Characterization of RyDEN (C19orf66) as an Interferon-Stimulated Cellular Inhibitor against Dengue Virus Replication

Dengue virus (DENV) is one of the most important arthropod-borne pathogens that cause life-threatening diseases in humans. However, no vaccine or specific antiviral is available for dengue. As seen in other RNA viruses, the innate immune system plays a key role in controlling DENV infection and disease outcome. Although the interferon (IFN) response, which is central to host protective immunity, has been reported to limit DENV replication, the molecular details of how DENV infection is modulated by IFN treatment are elusive. In this study, by employing a gain-of-function screen using a type I IFN-treated cell-derived cDNA library, we identified a previously uncharacterized gene, C19orf66, as an IFN-stimulated gene (ISG) that inhibits DENV replication, which we named Repressor of yield of DENV (RyDEN). Overexpression and gene knockdown experiments revealed that expression of RyDEN confers resistance to all serotypes of DENV in human cells. RyDEN expression also limited the replication of hepatitis C virus, Kunjin virus, Chikungunya virus, herpes simplex virus type 1, and human adenovirus. Importantly, RyDEN was considered to be a crucial effector molecule in the IFN-mediated anti-DENV response. When affinity purification-mass spectrometry analysis was performed, RyDEN was revealed to form a complex with cellular mRNA-binding proteins, poly(A)-binding protein cytoplasmic 1 (PABPC1), and La motif-related protein 1 (LARP1). Interestingly, PABPC1 and LARP1 were found to be positive modulators of DENV replication. Since RyDEN influenced intracellular events on DENV replication and, suppression of protein synthesis from DENV-based reporter construct RNA was also observed in RyDEN-expressing cells, our data suggest that RyDEN is likely to interfere with the translation of DENV via interaction with viral RNA and cellular mRNA-binding proteins, resulting in the inhibition of virus replication in infected cells.     

ALDH2 polymorphism for the risk of cervical carcinogenesis

To investigate the clinical significance of ALDH2 genetic polymorphisms in cervical carcinogenesis. ALDH2 polymorphisms together with human papillomavirus (HPV) types were examined in a total of 195 cervical smear in exfoliated cervical cell samples using Real-Time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) System. The frequency for the AG+AA genotype was seven in the normal group (70.0 %), 16 in the LSIL group (57.1 %), and 27 in the HSIL group (90.0 %). A significant difference was found between the LSIL and HSIL groups (P = 0.0064). Patients with HSIL lesions frequently had high-risk HPV infections and concurrently belonged to the AG+AA group. ALDH2 genotype in cervical cell samples may be associated with more severe precancerous lesions of the cervix in a Japanese population.     

(Pro)renin receptor accelerates development of sarcopenia via activation of Wnt/YAP signaling axis

To extend life expectancy and ensure healthy aging, it is crucial to prevent and minimize age‐induced skeletal muscle atrophy, also known as sarcopenia. However, the disease's molecular mechanism remains unclear. The age‐related Wnt/β‐catenin signaling pathway has been recently shown to be activated by the (pro)renin receptor ((P)RR). We report here that (P)RR expression was increased in the atrophied skeletal muscles of aged mice and humans. Therefore, we developed a gain‐of‐function model of age‐related sarcopenia via transgenic expression of (P)RR under control of the CAG promoter. Consistent with our hypothesis, (P)RR‐Tg mice died early and exhibited muscle atrophy with histological features of sarcopenia. Moreover, Wnt/β‐catenin signaling was activated and the regenerative capacity of muscle progenitor cells after cardiotoxin injury was impaired due to cell fusion failure in (P)RR‐Tg mice. In vitro forced expression of (P)RR protein in C2C12 myoblast cells suppressed myotube formation by activating Wnt/β‐catenin signaling. Administration of Dickkopf‐related protein 1, an inhibitor of Wnt/β‐catenin signaling, and anti‐(P)RR neutralizing antibody, which inhibits binding of (P)RR to the Wnt receptor, significantly improved sarcopenia in (P)RR‐Tg mice. Furthermore, the use of anti‐(P)RR neutralizing antibodies significantly improved the regenerative ability of skeletal muscle in aged mice. Finally, we show that Yes‐associated protein (YAP) signaling, which is coordinately regulated by Wnt/β‐catenin, contributed to the development of (P)RR‐induced sarcopenia. The present study demonstrates the use of (P)RR‐Tg mice as a novel sarcopenia model, and shows that (P)RR‐Wnt‐YAP signaling plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of this disease.     

PMab-219: A monoclonal antibody for the immunohistochemical analysis of horse podoplanin

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against human, mouse, rat, rabbit, dog, cat, and bovine podoplanin (PDPN), a lymphatic endothelial cell marker, have been established in our previous studies. However, mAbs against horse PDPN (horPDPN), which are useful for immunohistochemical analysis, remain to be developed. In the present study, mice were immunized with horPDPN-overexpressing Chinese hamster ovary (CHO)-K1 cells (CHO/horPDPN), and hybridomas producing mAbs against horPDPN were screened using flow cytometry. One of the mAbs, PMab-219 (IgG_2a, kappa), specifically detected CHO/horPDPN cells via flow cytometry and recognized horPDPN protein using Western blotting. Furthermore, PMab-219 strongly stained CHO/horPDPN via immunohistochemistry. These findings suggest that PMab-219 is useful for investigating the function of horPDPN.     

Establishment of a monoclonal antibody PMab-225 against alpaca podoplanin for immunohistochemical analyses

Podoplanin (PDPN) is known as a lymphatic endothelial cell marker. Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against human, mouse, rat, rabbit, dog, cat, bovine, pig, and horse PDPN have been established in our previous studies. However, mAbs against alpaca PDPN (aPDPN), required for immunohistochemical analysis, remain to be developed. In the present study, we employed the Cell-Based Immunization and Screening (CBIS) method for producing anti-aPDPN mAbs. We immunized mice with aPDPN-overexpressing Chinese hamster ovary (CHO)-K1 cells (CHO/aPDPN), and hybridomas producing mAbs against aPDPN were screened using flow cytometry. One of the mAbs, PMab-225 (IgG_2b, kappa), specifically detected CHO/aPDPN cells via flow cytometry and recognized the aPDPN protein on Western blotting. Further, PMab-225 strongly stained lung type I alveolar cells, colon lymphatic endothelial cells, and kidney podocytes via immunohistochemistry. These findings demonstrate that PMab-225 antibody is useful to investigate the function of aPDPN via different techniques.     

Establishment of a monoclonal antibody PMab-233 for immunohistochemical analysis against Tasmanian devil podoplanin

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against not only human, mouse, and rat but also rabbit, dog, cat, bovine, pig, and horse podoplanins (PDPNs) have been established in our previous studies. PDPN is used as a lymphatic endothelial cell marker in pathological diagnoses. However, mAbs against Tasmanian devil PDPN (tasPDPN), which are useful for immunohistochemical analysis, remain to be developed. Herein, mice were immunized with tasPDPN-overexpressing Chinese hamster ovary (CHO)-K1 (CHO/tasPDPN) cells, and hybridomas producing mAbs against tasPDPN were screened using flow cytometry. One of the mAbs, PMab-233 (IgG₁, kappa), specifically detected CHO/tasPDPN cells by flow cytometry and recognized tasPDPN protein by western blotting. Furthermore, PMab-233 strongly detected CHO/tasPDPN cells by immunohistochemistry. These findings suggest that PMab-233 may be useful as a lymphatic endothelial cell marker of the Tasmanian devil.     

Development of a novel tocopheryl ester for suppression of lipid accumulation without cytotoxicity by optimization of dicarboxylic ester moiety

Tocopheryl succinate (Tsuc) is a succinic acid ester of the well-known antioxidant α-tocopherol (T). Tsuc exhibits various biological activities, including tumor growth suppression via activation of cell signaling and prevention of lipid accumulation in mouse adipocyte 3T3-L1 cells. The latter findings suggest that Tsuc may be a drug candidate for the treatment of obesity. However, Tsuc was found to induce apoptosis of normal cells (in addition to cancer cells), demonstrating the need to reduce the cytotoxicity of Tsuc without losing the suppression effect on lipid accumulation. Based on our previous findings, we focused on the ester structure of Tsuc for controlling cytotoxicity. Herein, we examined the cytotoxicity and lipid accumulation suppression effect of various T ester derivatives. We found that the terminal carboxylic group is necessary for suppression of lipid accumulation. We synthesized tocopheryl glutarate (Tglu) and tocopheryl adipate (Tadi) by elongation of carbon atoms 1 and 2 of the dicarboxylic moiety, respectively. Tglu and Tadi did not show any cytotoxicity, and both esters suppressed lipid accumulation, although their suppression activities were weaker than that of Tsuc. Tadi showed a more potent lipid accumulation inhibitory effect than Tglu. Although Tadi inhibited lipogenesis and promoted lipolysis, lipolysis was induced at lower concentrations than inhibition of lipogenesis, suggesting that Tadi mainly affects lipolysis. Taken together, we succeeded in the reduction of cytotoxicity, without loss of the suppression effect on lipid accumulation, by elongation of the dicarboxylic moiety of Tsuc. Tadi may be a promising candidate as an anti-obesity drug.     

Inheritance of two M type mitochondrial DNA from sperm and unfertilized eggs to offspring in Mytilus galloprovincialis

In Mytilus mussels, paternal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from sperm is known to be transmitted to offspring. This phenomenon is called doubly uniparental inheritance (DUI). Under DUI, sperm mtDNA (M type) is inherited only by males. Female mussels receive maternal mtDNA (F type). However, in our previous study, we showed female and unfertilized eggs have both F and M types. We hypothesized that the two M types both from sperm and unfertilized eggs were transmitted to offspring. To test the hypothesis, we examined the number of M type haplotypes in mature M. galloprovincialis. The M type in larvae was compared with those of the parents. Cross experiments were carried out to test the inheritance of M type. In six of 20 mature mussels, two M types were detected by sequence analysis and polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism. In cross experiments of larval samples from five of 12 crosses, double peak wave was observed by single nucleotide polymorphisms analysis. In these larval samples, the higher peak wave was identical to the parental M type. Larvae received much more paternal M type than the maternal ones. We demonstrated that two M types from sperm and unfertilized eggs were transmitted to offspring in M. galloprovincialis.