Minimizing Cognitive Errors in Site-Specific Causal Assessments

Interest in causal investigations in aquatic systems has been a natural outgrowth of the increased use of biological monitoring to characterize the condition of resources. Although biological monitoring approaches are critical tools for detecting whether effects are occurring, they do not identify the cause of the observed effects. Formal approaches to causal evaluation can provide a mechanism to build on expert knowledge, increasing the likelihood that remedial efforts will achieve the desired environmental improvement. This paper examines how formal approaches to causal investigations minimize common errors. We reviewed common cognitive errors reported in the literature, and compared them with considerations suggested for strength-of-evidence approaches. Many of the causal considerations are directed toward distinguishing spurious correlations from true causal relationships. However, this is only one type of error; others include hypothesis dependence, confirmation bias, hypothesis tenacity and anchoring. We suggest three general principles for minimizing error in site-specific investigations: (1) Conduct the causal evaluation as a fair, transparent comparison among alternatives; (2) Carefully describe and quantify the conjunction of cause and effect; and (3) Consider that conjunction between cause and effect is spurious, or that a real conjunction was masked.     

Monitoring zinc concentrations in water using the respiratory response of bluegills (Lepomis macrochirus Rafinesque)

Summary Measuring the cough frequency of bluegills by means of a cannula inserted through the snout into the buccal cavity is a good monitoring technique for zinc (and probably other heavy metals) because the response is quick, is proportional to the toxicant concentration and occurs at sublethal concentrations.     

X-ray-induced mutation spectra of different germ-cell stages of Drosophila males with a double marked Y-chromosome and either a normal X-or a ring-X-chromosome (author's transl)

Different germ-cell stages of Drosophila males with a double marked Y-chromosome and either a normal X- or a ring-X chromosome were irradiated with X-rays, inducing the following aberrations: chromosome loss, chromosome gain (XYX-females), partial Y loss and isochromosomes of the Y-chromosome.Doses of 520 rad in spermatocytes and spermatids and 2600 rad in sperm, produced the same effect in these stages with regard to the chromosome loss in the males with a normal X, and the following results were obtained: (a) The partial Y loss in postmeiotic stages is small in comparison with spermatocytes in both stocks. This could mean that in spermatocytes this aberration is determined by exchange processes which can only be induced and/or detected in premeiotic stages. (b) In spermatocytes and mature sperm of males with a ring-X chromosome, the chromosome loss was 2.9 times greater than in those with a normal X. In spermatids of the males with a ring-X the rate of loss was only 1.5 times greater. In spermatocytes of either males with a ring-X or a normal X a similar high rate of isochromosomes could be induced. However, in spermatids and mature sperm the rate of induction of isochromosomes was found to be very small. These results seem to indicate that in mature sperm the rejoining of breaks in the Y-chromosome takes place before, and in the X-chromosome usually after the replication. If in post-meiotic stages of Drosophila the X- and Y-chromosomes existed as chromatid-like subunits then in spermatids these should behave as a structural unit.In sperm we were able to induce similar frequencies of individuals with a single isochromosome type in all body cells as of individuals with two types of isochromosomes (isochromosome mosaics). This result seems to indicate that after irradiation of sperm one of the first two division nuclei is lethal in an proportion of the zygotes.     

Bias in the development of health and ecological assessments and potential solutions

The effectiveness and credibility of environmental decisions depend on the information provided by scientific assessments. However, the conflicting assessments provided by government agencies, industries, and environmental advocacy groups suggest that biases occur during assessment processes. Sources of bias include personal bias, regulatory capture, advocacy, reliance on volunteer assessors, biased stakeholder and peer review processes, literature searches, standardization of data, inappropriate standards of proof, misinterpretation, and ambiguity. Assessors can adopt practices to increase objectivity, transparency, and clarity. Decision-makers, managers of assessors, and institutions that commission assessments can adopt other practices that reduce pressures on assessors and reduce opportunities for expression of the personal biases of assessors. Environmental assessment should be recognized as a discipline with its own technical and ethical best practices.     

Estimating the uptake of traffic-derived NO2 from 15N abundance in Norway spruce needles

The ¹⁵N ratio of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emitted from vehicles, measured in the air adjacent to a highway in the Swiss Middle Land, was very high [δ¹⁵N(NO₂) = +5.7‰]. This high ¹⁵N abundance was used to estimate long-term NO₂ dry deposition into a forest ecosystem by measuring δ¹⁵N in the needles and the soil of potted and autochthonous spruce trees [Picea abies (L.) Karst] exposed to NO₂ in a transect orthogonal to the highway. δ¹⁵N in the current-year needles of potted trees was 2.0‰ higher than that of the control after 4 months of exposure close to the highway, suggesting a 25% contribution to the N-nutrition of these needles. Needle fall into the pots was prevented by grids placed above the soil, while the continuous decomposition of needle litter below the autochthonous trees over previous years has increased δ¹⁵N values in the soil, resulting in parallel gradients of δ¹⁵N in soil and needles with distance from the highway. Estimates of NO₂ uptake into needles obtained from the δ¹⁵N data were significantly correlated with the inputs calculated with a shoot gas exchange model based on a parameterisation widely used in deposition modelling. Therefore, we provide an indication of estimated N inputs to forest ecosystems via dry deposition of NO₂ at the receptor level under field conditions. Received: 7 November 1997 / Accepted: 16 September 1998     

Finding A Niche for Soil Microbial Toxicity Tests in Ecological Risk Assessment

Soil microbial toxicity tests are seldom used in ecological risk assessments or in the development of regulatory criteria in the U.S. The primary reason is the lack of an explicit connection between these tests and assessment end-points. Soil microorganisms have three potential roles with respect to ecological assessment endpoints: properties of microbial communities may be end-points; microbial responses may be used to estimate effects on plant production; and microbial responses may be used as surrogates for responses of higher organisms. Rates of microbial processes are important to ecosystem function, and thus should be valued by regulatory agencies. However, the definition of the microbial assessment endpoint is often an impediment to its use in risk assessment. Decreases in rates are not always undesirable. Processes in a nutrient cycle are particularly difficult to define as endpoints, because what constitutes an adverse effect on a process is dependent on the rates of others. Microbial tests may be used as evidence in an assessment of plant production, but the dependence of plants on microbial processes is rarely considered. As assessment endpoints are better defined in the future, microbial ecologists and toxicologists should be provided with more direction for developing appropriate microbial tests.     

Testing experimentally the effect of soil resource mobility on plant competition

Aims The volume of soil beyond a plant's roots from which that plant is able to acquire a particular nutrient depends upon the mobility of that nutrient in the soil. For this reason it has been hypothesized that the strength of competitive interactions between plants vary with soil nutrient mobility. We aimed to provide an experimental test of this hypothesis.Methods We devised two experimental systems to investigate specifically the effect of nutrient transport rates upon intraspecific competition. In the first, the exchange of rhizosphere water and dissolved nutrients between two connected pots, each containing one plant, was manipulated by alternately raising and lowering the pots. In the second experiment, the roots systems of two competing plants were separated by partitions of differing porosity, thereby varying the plants' access to water and nutrients in the other plant′s rhizosphere. In this second experiment, we also applied varying amounts of nutrients to test whether higher nutrient input would reduce competition when competition for light is avoided, and applied different water levels to affect nutrient concentrations without changing nutrient supply.Important findings In both experiments, lower mobility reduced competitive effects on plant biomass and on relative growth rate (RGR), as hypothesized. In the second experiment, however, competition was more intense under high nutrient input, suggesting that low nutrient supply rates reduced the strength of the superior competitor. Competitive effects on RGR were only evident under the low water level, suggesting that under lower nutrient concentrations, competitive effects might be less pronounced. Taken together, our results provide the first direct experimental evidence that a reduction in nutrient mobility can reduce the intensity of competition between plants.