Joint species distribution modelling for spatio‐temporal occurrence and ordinal abundance data

Aim

Species distribution models are important tools used to study the distribution and abundance of organisms relative to abiotic variables. Dynamic local interactions among species in a community can affect abundance. The abundance of a single species may not be at equilibrium with the environment for spreading invasive species and species that are range shifting because of climate change. Innovation : We develop methods for incorporating temporal processes into a spatial joint species distribution model for presence/absence and ordinal abundance data. We model non‐equilibrium conditions via a temporal random effect and temporal dynamics with a vector‐autoregressive process allowing for intra‐ and interspecific dependence between co‐occurring species. The autoregressive term captures how the abundance of each species can enhance or inhibit its own subsequent abundance or the subsequent abundance of other species in the community and is well suited for a ‘community modules’ approach of strongly interacting species within a food web. R code is provided for fitting multispecies models within a Bayesian framework for ordinal data with any number of locations, time points, covariates and ordinal categories.

Main conclusions

We model ordinal abundance data of two invasive insects (hemlock woolly adelgid and elongate hemlock scale) that share a host tree and were undergoing northwards range expansion in the eastern U.S.A. during the period 1997–2011. Accounting for range expansion and high inter‐annual variability in abundance led to improved estimation of the species–environment relationships. We would have erroneously concluded that winter temperatures did not affect scale abundance had we not accounted for the range expansion of scale. The autoregressive component revealed weak evidence for commensalism, in which adelgid may have predisposed hemlock stands for subsequent infestation by scale. Residual spatial dependence indicated that an unmeasured variable additionally affected scale abundance. Our robust modelling approach could provide similar insights for other community modules of co‐occurring species.     

Among‐species overlap in rodent body size distributions predicts species richness along a temperature gradient

Temperature is widely regarded as a major driver of species richness, but the mechanisms are debated. Niche theory suggests temperature may affect richness by filtering traits and species in colder habitats while promoting specialization in warmer ones. However, tests of this theory are rare because niche dimensions are challenging to quantify along broad thermal gradients. Here, we use individual‐level trait data from a long‐term monitoring network spanning a large geographic extent to test niche‐based theory of community assembly in small mammals. We examined variation in body size among 23 communities of North American rodents sampled across the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), ranging from northern hardwood forests to subtropical deserts. We quantified body size similarity among species using a metric of overlap that accounts for individual variation, and fit a structural equation model to disentangle the relationships between temperature, productivity, body size overlap, and species richness. We document a latitudinal gradient of declining similarity in body size among species towards the tropics and overall increase in the dimensions of community‐wide trait space in warmer habitats. Neither environmental temperature nor net primary productivity directly affect rodent species richness. Instead, temperature determines the community‐wide niche space that species can occupy, which in turn alters richness. We suggest a latitudinal gradient of trait space expansion towards the tropics may be widespread and underlie gradients in species diversity.     

Mobile genetic elements: in silico,in vitro,in vivo

Mobile genetic elements (MGEs), also called transposable elements (TEs), represent universal components of most genomes and are intimately involved in nearly all aspects of genome organization, function and evolution. However, there is currently a gap between the fast pace of TE discovery in silico, driven by the exponential growth of comparative genomic studies, and a limited number of experimental models amenable to more traditional in vitro and in vivo studies of structural, mechanistic and regulatory properties of diverse MGEs. Experimental and computational scientists came together to bridge this gap at a recent conference, ‘Mobile Genetic Elements: in silico, in vitro, in vivo’, held at the Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL) in Woods Hole, MA, USA.     

3-Methyl-2-phenyl-1-substituted-indole derivatives as indomethacin analogs: design,synthesis and biological evaluation as potential anti-inflammatory and analgesic agents

In a new group of 3-methyl-2-phenyl-1-substituted-indole derivatives (10a–f), the indomethacin analogs were prepared via the Fisher indole synthesis reaction of propiophenone with appropriately substituted phenylhydrazine hydrochloride. This is followed by the insertion of the appropriate benzyl or benzoyl fragment. All the synthesized compounds were evaluated for their anti-inflammatory (in vitro and in vivo) and analgesic activities. The methanesulphonyl derivatives 10d, e and f showed the highest anti-inflammatory (in vitro and in vivo) and analgesic activities. In addition, molecular docking studies were performed on compounds 10a–f and the results were in agreement with that obtained from the in vitro COX inhibition assays. The significant anti-inflammatory and analgesic activities exhibited by 10d and 10e warrant continued preclinical development as potential anti-inflammatory and analgesic agents.     

Cellular and humoral immunity in a wild mammal: Variation with age & sex and association with overwinter survival

Immune defenses are expected to be crucial for survival under the considerable parasite pressures experienced by wild animals. However, our understanding of the association between immunity and fitness in nature remains limited due to both the complexity of the vertebrate immune system and the often‐limited availability of immune reagents in nonmodel organisms. Here, we use methods and reagents developed by veterinary researchers for domestic ungulates on blood samples collected from a wild Soay sheep population, to evaluate an unusually broad panel of immune parameters. Our evaluation included different innate and acquired immune cell types as well as nematode parasite‐specific antibodies of different isotypes. We test how these markers correlate with one another, how they vary with age‐group and sex, and, crucially, whether they predict overwinter survival either within or among demographic groups. We found anticipated patterns of variation in markers with age, associated with immune development, and once these age trends were accounted for, correlations among our 11 immune markers were generally weak. We found that females had higher proportions of naïve T cells and gamma–delta T cells than males, independent of age, while our other markers did not differ between sexes. Only one of our 11 markers predicted overwinter survival: sheep with higher plasma levels of anti‐nematode IgG antibodies were significantly more likely to survive the subsequent high mortality winter, independent of age, sex, or weight. This supports a previous finding from this study system using a different set of samples and shows that circulating antibody levels against ecologically relevant parasites in natural systems represent an important parameter of immune function and may be under strong natural selection. Our data provide rare insights into patterns of variation among age‐ and sex groups in different T‐cell subsets and antibody levels in the wild, and suggest that certain types of immune response—notably those likely to be repeatable within individuals and linked to resistance to ecologically relevant parasites—may be most informative for research into the links between immunity and fitness under natural conditions.