Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials,risks and trade‐offs

Afforestation is considered a cost‐effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade‐offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO₂/year at 200 US$/tCO₂ in 2050 leading to large‐scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO₂ cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock‐in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade‐offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade‐offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.     

Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation,density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming

Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non‐hunted population of high‐arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual‐based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age‐specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green‐up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non‐breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density‐dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density‐dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population‐dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.     

Assessment of exploited fish species in the Lake Edward System,East Africa

The unknown status of inland fish stocks hinders their sustainable management. Therefore, increasing stock status information is important for sustainable inland fisheries. Fisheries reference points were estimated for five exploited fish species (11 stocks) in the Lake Edward system, East Africa, which is one of the most productive inland water systems. The aim was to ascertain the status of the fisheries and establish reference points for effective management. The reference points were based on four linked stock assessment approaches for data-limited fisheries. Estimates showed poor stock status with the stocks defined as either collapsed, recruitment impaired or overfished. However, higher catches could be obtained under sustainable management. Estimates of maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and supporting biomass (B_msy) are provided for 10 of the stocks as targets for rebuilding plans. The immediate target of management should be rebuilding biomass to B_msy. Applicable measures include shifting length at first capture to the length that maximizes catch without endangering size structure and biomass, and livelihood diversification out of fisheries.     

Intraspecific morphological variation in Cichlidogyrus (Monogenea) parasitizing two cichlid hosts from Lake Tanganyika exhibiting different dispersal capacities

Hydrobiologia - As parasites depend on their hosts and play a significant role in their ecology and evolution, we hypothesized an association between the host dispersal capacity and the...     

Modeling the circular economy in environmentally extended input–output: A web application

Global environmental and resource problems ask for new ways of managing the production and consumption of resources. The implementation of new paradigms, such as the circular economy, requires decision‐makers at multiple levels to make complex decisions. For this, clear analyses and modeling of scenarios are of utmost importance. Meanwhile, as the sophistication of databases and models increases so does the need for user‐friendly tools to use them. The RaMa‐Scene web platform reduces these barriers by allowing users to visualize easily diverse impacts of implementing circular‐economy interventions. This online web platform makes use of the multi‐regional environmentally extended input–output database EXIOBASE version 3 in monetary units, which has been modified to show explicit transactions of raw materials from recycling activities.     

Eco-evolutionary litter feedback as a driver of exotic plant invasion

Many studies have examined positive feedbacks between invasive plant traits and nutrient cycling, but few have investigated whether feedbacks arise from introduction of pre-adapted species or from eco-evolutionary feedback that develops after introduction. Eco-evolutionary feedback could occur between an invader's leaf tissue C:N ratio and its response to litter accumulation. Previous modeling predicts that occurrence of this feedback would be reflected by: (1) field data showing higher litter:biomass ratios in the invasive range; (2) high C:N genotypes benefiting more from experimental litter additions than low C:N genotypes; (3) this beneficial effect on high C:N genotypes inducing a critical transition toward invader dominance when a critical amount of litter is added to a native species-dominated community experiencing low nutrient conditions. Here, we empirically tested these predictions for the invasive grass Phalaris arundinacea, which has undergone post-introduction evolutionary change toward attaining higher C:N ratios under high nutrient conditions. We performed a biogeographical comparison of litter:biomass ratios in the native (Europe) and invasive (USA) range, and an experiment with mesocosms from the invasive range under low nutrient conditions. Low and high C:N Phalaris genotypes were introduced into native-dominated and bare mesocosms, to which varying litter amounts were added. The biogeographical comparison revealed that litter:biomass ratios were higher in the invasive range. The mesocosm experiment showed that when grown in isolation, only high C:N genotypes responded positively to litter. This effect, however, was not strong enough to stimulate Phalaris when exposed to competition with native species. Our results suggest that eco-evolutionary feedback between Phalaris’ C:N ratio and litter accumulation could occur, but only under high nutrient conditions. Our experiments suggest that eco-evolutionary feedback may select for specialist rather than superior genotypes. Hence, genotypic variation induced by post-introduction admixture may be subject to context-dependent selection due to eco-evolutionary feedback, increasing trait variation within invasive populations.     

Dietary vitamin A intake below the recommended daily intake during pregnancy and the risk of congenital diaphragmatic hernia in the offspring

BACKGROUND

Vitamin A has been related to the etiology of congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). We performed a case‐control study to investigate whether maternal dietary vitamin A intake is related to CDH in the offspring.

METHODS

Thirty‐one pregnancies diagnosed with CDH and 46 control pregnancies were included during the study. After CDH diagnosis and inclusion of controls by risk set sampling, maternal vitamin A intake was investigated with a food frequency questionnaire. Serum retinol and retinol‐binding protein were determined. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to calculate risk estimates with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

We found no significant differences in the overall nutrient and vitamin A intake between case and control mothers. After stratification in body mass index (BMI) categories, case mothers with normal weight showed a lower energy adjusted vitamin A intake (685 vs. 843 μg retinol activity equivalents [RAEs] / day; p = 0.04) and a slightly lower serum retinol (1.58 vs. 1.67 μmol/L; p = 0.08) than control mothers. Vitamin A intake <800 μg retinol activity equivalents (recommended daily intake) in normal weight mothers was associated with a significantly increased CDH risk (odds ratio [OR], 7.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5–34.4; p = 0.01). Associations were not significantly different in underweight and overweight mothers.

CONCLUSIONS

In normal‐weight mothers, dietary vitamin A intake during pregnancy below the recommended daily intake is significantly associated with an increased risk of a child with CDH. This finding supports the retinoid hypothesis in human CDH, but warrants further investigation in larger study populations. Birth Defects Research (Part A), 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Ala54Thr Fatty Acid-Binding Protein 2 (FABP2) Polymorphism in Recurrent Depression: Associations with Fatty Acid Concentrations and Waist Circumference

Background

Fatty acid (FA)-alterations may mediate the mutual association between Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, etiology of observed FA-alterations in MDD and CVD remains largely unclear. An interesting candidate may be a mutation in the fatty acid–binding protein 2 (FABP2)-gene, because it regulates dietary FA-uptake. Therefore, we aimed to test the hypotheses that in MDD-patients the FABP2 Ala54Thr-polymorphism would be (I) more prevalent than in sex- and age-matched controls, (II) associated with observed alterations in FA-metabolism, and (III) associated with CVD-risk factor waist circumference.

Methods

We measured concentrations of 29 different erythrocyte FAs, FABP2-genotype, and waist circumference in recurrent MDD-patients and matched never-depressed controls.

Results

FABP2-genotype distribution did not significantly differ between the 137 MDD-patients and 73 matched controls. However, patients with the Ala54Thr-polymorphism had (I) higher concentrations of especially eicosadienoic acid (C20:2ω6; P=.009) and other 20-carbon FAs, and associated (II) lower waist circumference (P=.019). In addition, FABP2-genotype effects on waist circumference in patients seemed (I) mediated by its effect on C20:2ω6, and (II) different from controls.

Conclusions

Although Ala54Thr-polymorphism distribution was not associated with recurrent MDD, our results indicate that FABP2 may play a role in the explanation of observed FA-alterations in MDD. For Ala54Thr-polymorphism patients, potentially adaptive conversion of increased bioavailable dietary precursors into eicosadienoic acid instead of arachidonic acid might be related to a low waist circumference. Because this is the first investigation of these associations, replication is warranted, preferably by nutrigenetic studies applying lipidomics and detailed dietary assessment.     

MicroRNA Profiling of Primary Cutaneous Large B-Cell Lymphomas

Aberrant expression of microRNAs is widely accepted to be pathogenetically involved in nodal diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCLs). However, the microRNAs profiles of primary cutaneous large B-cell lymphomas (PCLBCLs) are not yet described. Its two main subtypes, i.e., primary cutaneous diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, leg type (PCLBCL-LT) and primary cutaneous follicle center lymphoma (PCFCL) are characterized by an activated B-cell (ABC)-genotype and a germinal center B-cell (GCB)-genotype, respectively. We performed high-throughput sequencing analysis on frozen tumor biopsies from 19 cases of PCFCL and PCLBCL-LT to establish microRNA profiles. Cluster analysis of the complete microRNome could not distinguish between the two subtypes, but 16 single microRNAs were found to be differentially expressed. Single microRNA RT-qPCR was conducted on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor biopsies of 20 additional cases, confirming higher expression of miR-9-5p, miR-31-5p, miR-129-2-3p and miR-214-3p in PCFCL as compared to PCLBCL-LT. MicroRNAs previously described to be higher expressed in ABC-type as compared to GCB-type nodal DLBCL were not differentially expressed between PCFCL and PCLBCL-LT. In conclusion, PCFCL and PCLBCL-LT differ in their microRNA profiles. In contrast to their gene expression profile, they only show slight resemblance with the microRNA profiles found in GCB- and ABC-type nodal DLBCL.