Elimination of African Onchocerciasis: Modeling the Impact of Increasing the Frequency of Ivermectin Mass Treatment

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is currently shifting its focus from morbidity control to elimination of infection. To enhance the likelihood of elimination and speed up its achievement, programs may consider to increase the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment from annual to 6-monthly or even higher. In a computer simulation study, we examined the potential impact of increasing the mass treatment frequency for different settings. With the ONCHOSIM model, we simulated 92,610 scenarios pertaining to different assumptions about transmission conditions, history of mass treatment, the future mass treatment strategy, and ivermectin efficacy. Simulation results were used to determine the minimum remaining program duration and number of treatment rounds required to achieve 99% probability of elimination. Doubling the frequency of treatment from yearly to 6-monthly or 3-monthly was predicted to reduce remaining program duration by about 40% or 60%, respectively. These reductions come at a cost of additional treatment rounds, especially in case of 3-monthly mass treatment. Also, aforementioned reductions are highly dependent on maintained coverage, and could be completely nullified if coverage of mass treatment were to fall in the future. In low coverage settings, increasing treatment coverage is almost just as effective as increasing treatment frequency. We conclude that 6-monthly mass treatment may only be worth the effort in situations where annual treatment is expected to take a long time to achieve elimination in spite of good treatment coverage, e.g. because of unfavorable transmission conditions or because mass treatment started recently.     

Modelling the Persistence of Quiescent Conidia of the Entomopathogenic Hyphomycete Paecilomyces fumosoroseus Exposed to Solar Radiation

Persistence of conidia of the entomopathogenic fungus Paecilomyces fumosoroseus exposed to artificial and solar radiation at a constant temperature was studied by monitoring the ability to germinate and to form colonies (colony - forming units , CFUs) . The photic effect of radiation on each of these variables was modelled by a decreasing function of UVB irradiation ( in J m 2) . Germination ability was represented by a logistic function and viability (log CFU) by an infinitely decreasing function . Experiments carried out under artificial conditions , at three different UVB irradiances ( from 0 . 3 to 1 . 6 W m 2) , similar to those observed in nature , confirmed the adequacy of the predictor variable and of the functions chosen for describing these data . The proposed models appeared to be irradiance independent . Under solar radiation , the models were able to describe data collected on three different summer days in France (48 o 51 N , 2 o 06 E) . However , it took a greater amount of solar UVB radiation to produce the same effect as that achieved indoors . This could be explained by differences in radiation spectra . For each model , one set of parameters was sufficient for representing all three sets of data: this constitutes an initial validation of the models proposed .     

Serotonin-mediated cardiovascular responses to electrical stimulation of the raphe nuclei in the rat.

The dorsal and median raphe nuclei in rats were electrically stimulated and blood pressure and heart rate were recorded. Stimulation of each raphe nucleus caused an increase in blood pressure without affecting heart rate. The size of the increase in blood pressure depended upon the stimulus-intensity.Significant increases were already obtained with 5 sec. trains of 0.3 msec., 200 μA stimuli given at a frequency of 50 Hz. The increases in blood pressure could be obtained with electrodes within the raphe nuclei.Pretreating rats with para-chlorophenylalanine (pCPA, 100 mg/kg.day for 3 days) significantly diminished the increases in blood pressure obtained during electrical stimulation of the median raphe nucleus. However, similar pretreatment did not affect blood pressure rises induced by dorsal raphe stimulation.These data are discussed in relation to the role of central serotoninergic mechanisms in cardiovascular control.     

Habitat fragmentation shapes natal dispersal and sociality in an Afrotropical cooperative breeder

It remains poorly understood how effects of anthropogenic activity, such as large-scale habitat fragmentation, impact sociality in animals. In cooperatively breeding species, groups are mostly formed through delayed offspring dispersal, and habitat fragmentation can affect this process in two opposite directions. Increased habitat isolation may increase dispersal costs, promoting delayed dispersal. Alternatively, reduced patch size and quality may decrease benefits of philopatry, promoting dispersal. Here, we test both predictions in a cooperatively breeding bird (placid greenbul, Phyllastrephus placidus) from an Afrotropical cloud forest archipelago. Males born in fragmented forest dispersed about 1 year earlier than those born in continuous forest. Contrary to females, males also started to reproduce earlier and mostly settled within their natal patch. Females only rarely delayed their dispersal for more than 1 year, both in fragmented and continuous forests. Our results suggest that early male dispersal and reproduction is jointly driven by a decrease in the value of the natal territory and an increase in local breeding opportunities in fragmented forest. While plasticity in dispersal strategies of cooperative breeders in response to anthropogenic change is believed to optimize reproduction-survival trade-offs, to what extent it shapes the ability of species to respond to rapid environmental change remains to be studied.     

Interaction of <i>Acaena elongata</i> L. with Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi under Phosphorus Limitation Conditions in a Temperate Forest

The aim of this study was to analyze the performance of Acaena elongata colonized by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) to different phosphorus (P) concentrations, as a measure of AMF dependency. A. elongata, is a species from soils where P availability is limited, such as temperate forests. Our research questions were: 1) How do different P concentrations affect the AMF association in Acaena elongata, and 2) How does the AMF association influence A. elongata’s growth under different P concentrations? A. elongata’s growth, P content in plant tissue, AMF colonization and dependency were measured under four P concentrations: control (0 g P kg⁻¹ ), low (0.05 g P kg⁻¹ ), intermediate (0.2 g P kg⁻¹ ) and high (2 g P kg⁻¹ ) in different harvests. A complete randomized block design was applied. A. elongata’s growth was higher under -AMF in intermediate and high P concentrations, and the lowest growth corresponded to +AMF in the low and intermediate P concentration. We observed a negative effect on the root biomass under +AMF in intermediate P concentration, while the P concentration had a positive effect on the leaf area ratio. The AMF colonization in A. elongata decreased in the highest P concentration and it was favored under intermediate P concentration; while the low and the high concentrations generated a cost-benefit imbalance. Our results suggest that the performance of some plant species in soils with low P availability may not be favored by their association with AMF, but a synergy between AMF and intermediate P concentrations might drive A. elongata’s growth.     

Genetic architecture of photosynthesis energy partitioning as revealed by a genome-wide association approach

Photosynthesis Research - The photosynthesis process is determined by the intensity level and spectral quality of the light; therefore, leaves need to adapt to a changing environment. The incident...     

A trait-based approach predicting community assembly and dominance of microbial invasive species

Understanding the mechanisms underlying community assembly helps to define success and susceptibility to biological invasions. Here, we explored phytoplankton community assembly following niche and neutral paradigms and using a trait-based approach. Under the hypothesis that the morphology-based functional groups (MBFG) clusters species with similar niche, we analysed how trait-related differences in fitness influence dominance of an invasive species. This was based on literature review, field data and model simulations. We predict that invading species can be dominant if: 1) do not belong to the local MBFG but use unexploited areas of the niche, or 2) belong to the resident MBFG but exhibit a higher fitness due to a particular combination of traits. The invasive dinoflagellate Ceratium furcoides was used as the model species to evaluate these hypotheses, its morphological (e.g. volume) and physiological (e.g. growth rates) traits were compared with species from the same (V: photosynthetic flagellates) and different (VII: colonial cyanobacteria) MBFG. Fitness was estimated using models parametrized with MBFG rates (R*, ability to draw down phosphate) under different environmental conditions (i.e. flushing). Results contributed to support both hypotheses. First, the alternation of C. furcoides and cyanobacteria dominance was explained by the use of different niches. Secondly, species from MBFG V were dominant under similar environments. Within this group V C. furcoides showed higher fitness under low flushing and high predation, advantage provided by a distinctive combination of traits. The application of trait-based approaches to represent the niche and estimate fitness along environmental gradients was useful to evaluate community assembly and can be used to predict the dominance of microbial species invasions.     

Performance of a simplified HEART score and HEART-GP score for evaluating chest pain in urgent primary care

BackgroundChest pain is a common symptom in urgent primary care. The distinction between urgent and non-urgent causes can be challenging. A modified version of the HEART score, in which troponin is omitted (‘simplified HEART’) or replaced by the so-called ‘sense of alarm’ (HEART-GP), may aid in risk stratification.MethodThis study involved a retrospective, observational cohort of consecutive patients evaluated for chest pain at a large-scale, out-of-hours, regional primary care facility in the Netherlands, with 6‑week follow-up for major adverse cardiac events (MACEs). The outcome of interest is diagnostic accuracy, including positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV).ResultsWe included 664 patients; MACEs occurred in 4.8% (n = 32). For  simplified HEART and HEART-GP, we found C‑statistics of 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80–0.91) and 0.90 (95% CI 0.85–0.95), respectively. Optimal diagnostic accuracy was found for a simplified HEART score ≥2 (PPV 9%, NPV 99.7%), HEART-GP score ≥3 (PPV 11%, NPV 99.7%) and HEART-GP score ≥4 (PPV 16%, NPV 99.4%). Physicians referred 157 patients (23.6%) and missed 6 MACEs. A simplified HEART score ≥2 would have picked up 5 cases, at the expense of 332 referrals (50.0%, p < 0.001). A HEART-GP score of ≥3 and ≥4 would have detected 5 and 3 MACEs and led to 293 (44.1%, p < 0.001) and 186 (28.0%, p = 0.18) referrals, respectively.ConclusionHEART-score modifications including the physicians’ ‘sense of alarm’ may be used as a risk stratification tool for chest pain in primary care in the absence of routine access to troponin assays. Further validation is warranted.Supplementary InformationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s12471-020-01529-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.