Disentangling the potential effects of land‐use and climate change on stream conditions

Land‐use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long‐term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land‐use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin‐wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land‐use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ‐ Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed‐wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land‐use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed‐wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land‐use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed‐wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%–26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land‐use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land‐use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.     

Symbiont community diversity is more variable in corals that respond poorly to stress

Coral reefs are declining globally as climate change and local water quality press environmental conditions beyond the physiological tolerances of holobionts—the collective of the host and its microbial symbionts. To assess the relationship between symbiont composition and holobiont stress tolerance, community diversity metrics were quantified for dinoflagellate endosymbionts (Family: Symbiodiniaceae) from eight Acropora millepora genets that thrived under or responded poorly to various stressors. These eight selected genets represent the upper and lower tails of the response distribution of 40 coral genets that were exposed to four stress treatments (and control conditions) in a 10‐day experiment. Specifically, four ‘best performer’ coral genets were analyzed at the end of the experiment because they survived high temperature, high pCO₂, bacterial exposure, or combined stressors, whereas four ‘worst performer’ genets were characterized because they experienced substantial mortality under these stressors. At the end of the experiment, seven of eight coral genets mainly hosted Cladocopium symbionts, whereas the eighth genet was dominated by both Cladocopium and Durusdinium symbionts. Symbiodiniaceae alpha and beta diversity were higher in worst performing genets than in best performing genets. Symbiont communities in worst performers also differed more after stress exposure relative to their controls (based on normalized proportional differences in beta diversity), than did best performers. A generalized joint attribute model estimated the influence of host genet and treatment on Symbiodiniaceae community composition and identified strong associations among particular symbionts and host genet performance, as well as weaker associations with treatment. Although dominant symbiont physiology and function contribute to host performance, these findings emphasize the importance of symbiont community diversity and stochasticity as components of host performance. Our findings also suggest that symbiont community diversity metrics may function as indicators of resilience and have potential applications in diverse disciplines from climate change adaptation to agriculture and medicine.     

Do different rates of gene flow underlie variation in phenotypic and phenological clines in a montane grasshopper community?

Species responses to environmental change are likely to depend on existing genetic and phenotypic variation, as well as evolutionary potential. A key challenge is to determine whether gene flow might facilitate or impede genomic divergence among populations responding to environmental change, and if emergent phenotypic variation is dependent on gene flow rates. A general expectation is that patterns of genetic differentiation in a set of codistributed species reflect differences in dispersal ability. In less dispersive species, we predict greater genetic divergence and reduced gene flow. This could lead to covariation in life‐history traits due to local adaptation, although plasticity or drift could mirror these patterns. We compare genome‐wide patterns of genetic structure in four phenotypically variable grasshopper species along a steep elevation gradient near Boulder, Colorado, and test the hypothesis that genomic differentiation is greater in short‐winged grasshopper species, and statistically associated with variation in growth, reproductive, and physiological traits along this gradient. In addition, we estimate rates of gene flow under competing demographic models, as well as potential gene flow through surveys of phenological overlap among populations within a species. All species exhibit genetic structure along the elevation gradient and limited gene flow. The most pronounced genetic divergence appears in short‐winged (less dispersive) species, which also exhibit less phenological overlap among populations. A high‐elevation population of the most widespread species, Melanoplus sanguinipes, appears to be a sink population derived from low elevation populations. While dispersal ability has a clear connection to the genetic structure in different species, genetic distance does not predict growth, reproductive, or physiological trait variation in any species, requiring further investigation to clearly link phenotypic divergence to local adaptation.     

Population modelling and genetics of a critically endangered Madagascan palm Tahina spectabilis

Madagascar is home to 208 indigenous palm species, almost all of them endemic and >80% of which are endangered. We undertook complete population census and sampling for genetic analysis of a relatively recently discovered giant fan palm, the Critically Endangered Tahina spectablis in 2008 and 2016. Our 2016 study included newly discovered populations and added to our genetic study. We incorporated these new populations into species distribution niche model (SDM) and projected these onto maps of the region. We developed population matrix models based on observed demographic data to model population change and predict the species vulnerability to extinction by undertaking population viability analysis (PVA). We investigated the potential conservation value of reintroduced planted populations within the species potential suitable habitat. We found that the population studied in 2008 had grown in size due to seedling regeneration but had declined in the number of reproductively mature plants, and we were able to estimate that the species reproduces and dies after approximately 70 years. Our models suggest that if the habitat where it resides continues to be protected the species is unlikely to go extinct due to inherent population decline and that it will likely experience significant population growth after approximately 80 years due to the reproductive and life cycle attributes of the species. The newly discovered populations contain more genetic diversity than the first discovered southern population which is genetically depauperate. The species appears to demonstrate a pattern of dispersal leading to isolated founder plants which may eventually lead to population development depending on local establishment opportunities. The conservation efforts currently put in place including the reintroduction of plants within the species potential suitable habitat if maintained are thought likely to enable the species to sustain itself but it remains vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts.     

Acoustic localization of terrestrial wildlife: Current practices and future opportunities

Autonomous acoustic recorders are an increasingly popular method for low‐disturbance, large‐scale monitoring of sound‐producing animals, such as birds, anurans, bats, and other mammals. A specialized use of autonomous recording units (ARUs) is acoustic localization, in which a vocalizing animal is located spatially, usually by quantifying the time delay of arrival of its sound at an array of time‐synchronized microphones. To describe trends in the literature, identify considerations for field biologists who wish to use these systems, and suggest advancements that will improve the field of acoustic localization, we comprehensively review published applications of wildlife localization in terrestrial environments. We describe the wide variety of methods used to complete the five steps of acoustic localization: (1) define the research question, (2) obtain or build a time‐synchronizing microphone array, (3) deploy the array to record sounds in the field, (4) process recordings captured in the field, and (5) determine animal location using position estimation algorithms. We find eight general purposes in ecology and animal behavior for localization systems: assessing individual animals' positions or movements, localizing multiple individuals simultaneously to study their interactions, determining animals' individual identities, quantifying sound amplitude or directionality, selecting subsets of sounds for further acoustic analysis, calculating species abundance, inferring territory boundaries or habitat use, and separating animal sounds from background noise to improve species classification. We find that the labor‐intensive steps of processing recordings and estimating animal positions have not yet been automated. In the near future, we expect that increased availability of recording hardware, development of automated and open‐source localization software, and improvement of automated sound classification algorithms will broaden the use of acoustic localization. With these three advances, ecologists will be better able to embrace acoustic localization, enabling low‐disturbance, large‐scale collection of animal position data.     

One size does not fit all: Customizing MCMC methods for hierarchical models using NIMBLE

Improved efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo facilitates all aspects of statistical analysis with Bayesian hierarchical models. Identifying strategies to improve MCMC performance is becoming increasingly crucial as the complexity of models, and the run times to fit them, increases. We evaluate different strategies for improving MCMC efficiency using the open‐source software NIMBLE (R package nimble) using common ecological models of species occurrence and abundance as examples. We ask how MCMC efficiency depends on model formulation, model size, data, and sampling strategy. For multiseason and/or multispecies occupancy models and for N‐mixture models, we compare the efficiency of sampling discrete latent states vs. integrating over them, including more vs. fewer hierarchical model components, and univariate vs. block‐sampling methods. We include the common MCMC tool JAGS in comparisons. For simple models, there is little practical difference between computational approaches. As model complexity increases, there are strong interactions between model formulation and sampling strategy on MCMC efficiency. There is no one‐size‐fits‐all best strategy, but rather problem‐specific best strategies related to model structure and type. In all but the simplest cases, NIMBLE's default or customized performance achieves much higher efficiency than JAGS. In the two most complex examples, NIMBLE was 10–12 times more efficient than JAGS. We find NIMBLE is a valuable tool for many ecologists utilizing Bayesian inference, particularly for complex models where JAGS is prohibitively slow. Our results highlight the need for more guidelines and customizable approaches to fit hierarchical models to ensure practitioners can make the most of occupancy and other hierarchical models. By implementing model‐generic MCMC procedures in open‐source software, including the NIMBLE extensions for integrating over latent states (implemented in the R package nimbleEcology), we have made progress toward this aim.     

Focus: Preventive Medicine: Undiagnosed Hypertension and Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes among Overweight and Obese Marshallese Participants in a Diabetes Prevention Program

Hypertension and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are major public health issues that disproportionately affect minority communities, including Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders (NHPI). Minority communities are also more likely to have undiagnosed hypertension and T2D. Marshallese Pacific Islanders have been shown to have high proportions of diagnosed and undiagnosed hypertension and T2D. Using survey and biometric data collected from 378 overweight/obese Marshallese Pacific Islander adults, this study documents the prevalence of hypertension and T2D, as well as the prevalence of undiagnosed hypertension and T2D. The study also examines associations between undiagnosed hypertension and undiagnosed T2D and age group, sex, health care access (defined by foregone care due to cost and health insurance status), and body mass index (BMI). Among participants with blood pressure readings indicative of hypertension, 68.4% were undiagnosed, and among participants with HbA1c indicative of T2D, 31.6% were undiagnosed. A quarter of participants (24.5%) had blood pressure and HbA1c measures indicative of both undiagnosed hypertension and undiagnosed T2D. Undiagnosed hypertension was significantly associated with age group (p’s<0.0001) and sex (p=0.028). Undiagnosed T2D was significantly associated with age group (p’s<0.05), forgone care due to cost (p=0.018), health insurance status (p=0.035), and BMI (p=0.001). Participants in this study had high proportions of undiagnosed hypertension and undiagnosed T2D. These findings will be immediately useful for those working to address hypertension and T2D disparities among Marshallese and other NHPI populations.     

Thermal sensitivity of juvenile rabbitfishes Siganus doliatus and S. lineatus (Siganidae): a key role for habitat?

The majority of our understanding of the effects of climate change on coral reef fishes are currently based on studies of small-bodied species such as damselfishes. By contrast, we know little about the potential impacts of ocean warming on larger species of herbivorous and detritivorous reef fish, despite them being a critical functional group and an essential source of food protein for millions of people. In addition, we know little of the role of habitat in determining species’ thermal sensitivity and the legitimacy of extrapolating thermal performance across closely-related species from different habitat types. Here we test the effect of exposure to increased water temperature during juvenile development on key physiological and behavioral traits of two species of rabbitfish typically associated with different habitats: Siganus doliatus (reef-associated) and S. lineatus (estuarine). Wild-caught juveniles were reared for 14 weeks at temperatures representing present-day ambient conditions (28.0 °C), late-summer ambient conditions (30.0 °C), or those projected on reefs under future global warming scenarios (31.5 °C). We then measured the somatic (growth, condition, immune response) and behavioral (feeding rate, latency to feed and activity level) traits of individuals within each treatment to determine the sensitivity of each species to elevated water temperatures. Overall, both species showed comparatively robust levels of thermal tolerance, based on previously-documented responses of small-bodied reef fishes. However, two very different patterns emerged. The reef-associated S. doliatus showed a greater physiological response to temperature, with negative effects on hepatosomatic condition and immune function observed in individuals exposed to the 31.5 °C treatment. By contrast, there were no negative physiological effects of temperature observed in S. lineatus and instead we recorded behavioral changes, with individuals at 30 °C and 31.5 °C displaying altered feeding behavior (increased feeding rate and decreased latency to feed). These distinct responses observed between congeners are likely due to their evolutionary history and flag the potential inaccuracies that could arise from extrapolating effects of ocean warming across even closely-related species adapted to different habitats.