Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.     

A virus-free poly-promoter vector induces pluripotency in quiescent bovine cells under chemically defined conditions of dual kinase inhibition

Authentic induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs), capable of giving rise to all cell types of an adult animal, are currently only available in mouse. Here, we report the first generation of bovine iPSC-like cells following transfection with a novel virus-free poly-promoter vector. This vector contains the bovine cDNAs for OCT4, SOX2, KLF4 and c-MYC, each controlled by its own independent promoter. Bovine fibroblasts were cultured without feeders in a chemically defined medium containing leukaemia inhibitory factor (LIF) and inhibitors of MEK1/2 and glycogen synthase kinase-3 signaling ('2i'). Non-invasive real-time kinetic profiling revealed a different response of bovine vs human and mouse cells to culture in 2i/LIF. In bovine, 2i was necessary and sufficient to induce the appearance of tightly packed alkaline phosphatase-positive iPSC-like colonies. These colonies formed in the absence of DNA synthesis and did not expand after passaging. Following transfection, non-proliferative primary colonies expressed discriminatory markers of pluripotency, including endogenous iPSC factors, CDH1, DPPA3, NANOG, SOCS3, ZFP42, telomerase activity, Tra-1-60/81 and SSEA-3/4, but not SSEA-1. This indicates that they had initiated a self-sustaining pluripotency programme. Bovine iPSC-like cells maintained a normal karyotype and differentiated into derivatives of all three germ layers in vitro and in teratomas. Our study demonstrates that conversion into induced pluripotency can occur in quiescent cells, following a previously undescribed route of direct cell reprogramming. This identifies a major species-specific barrier for generating iPSCs and provides a chemically defined screening platform for factors that induce proliferation and maintain pluripotency of embryo-derived pluripotent stem cells in livestock.     

Herbarium records identify sensitivity of flowering phenology of eucalypts to climate: Implications for species response to climate change

Flowering phenology is very sensitive to climate and with increasing global warming the flowering time of plants is shifting to earlier or later dates. Changes in flowering times may affect species reproductive success, associated phenological events, species synchrony, and community composition. Long‐term data on phenological events can provide key insights into the impacts of climate on phenology. For Australia, however, limited data availability restricts our ability to assess the impacts of climate change on plant phenology. To address this limitation other data sources must be explored such as the use of herbarium specimens to conduct studies on flowering phenology. This study uses herbarium specimens for investigating the flowering phenology of five dominant and commercially important Eucalyptus species of south‐eastern Australia and the consequences of climate variability and change on flowering phenology. Relative to precipitation and air humidity, mean temperature of the preceding 3 months was the most influential factor on the flowering time for all species. In response to a temperature increment of 1°C, a shift in the timing of flowering of 14.1–14.9 days was predicted for E. microcarpa and E. tricarpa while delays in flowering of 11.3–15.5 days were found for E. obliqua, E. radiata and E. polyanthemos. Eucalyptus polyanthemos exhibited the greatest sensitivity to climatic variables. The study demonstrates that herbarium data can be used to detect climatic signals on flowering phenology for species with a long flowering duration, such as eucalypts. The robust relationship identified between temperature and flowering phenology indicates that shifts in flowering times will occur under predicted climate change which may affect reproductive success, fitness, plant communities and ecosystems.     

Southern Hemisphere biodiversity and global change: Data gaps and strategies

Long‐term datasets needed to detect the impacts of global change on southern biodiversity are still scarce and often incomplete, challenging adaptation planning and conservation management. Biological data are probably most limited in arid countries and from the oceans, where natural environmental variability (‘noise’) means that long time series are required to detect the ‘signal’ of directional change. Significant national and international investment and collaboration are needed for most southern nations to reliably track biodiversity trends and improve conservation adaptation to rapid climate change. Emerging early warning systems for biodiversity, incorporating regional environmental change drivers, citizen science and regional partnerships, can all help to compensate for existing information gaps and contribute to adaptation planning.     

Using Self-Organising Maps (SOMs) to assess synchronies: an application to historical eucalypt flowering records

Self-Organising Map (SOM) clustering methods applied to the monthly and seasonal averaged flowering intensity records of eight Eucalypt species are shown to successfully quantify, visualise and model synchronisation of multivariate time series. The SOM algorithm converts complex, nonlinear relationships between high-dimensional data into simple networks and a map based on the most likely patterns in the multiplicity of time series that it trains. Monthly- and seasonal-based SOMs identified three synchronous species groups (clusters): E. camaldulensis, E. melliodora, E. polyanthemos; E. goniocalyx, E. microcarpa, E. macrorhyncha; and E. leucoxylon, E. tricarpa. The main factor in synchronisation (clustering) appears to be the season in which flowering commences. SOMs also identified the asynchronous relationship among the eight species. Hence, the likelihood of the production, or not, of hybrids between sympatric species is also identified. The SOM pattern-based correlation values mirror earlier synchrony statistics gleaned from Moran correlations obtained from the raw flowering records. Synchronisation of flowering is shown to be a complex mechanism that incorporates all the flowering characteristics: flowering duration, timing of peak flowering, of start and finishing of flowering, as well as possibly specific climate drivers for flowering. SOMs can accommodate for all this complexity and we advocate their use by phenologists and ecologists as a powerful, accessible and interpretable tool for visualisation and clustering of multivariate time series and for synchrony studies.     

Environmental effects on growth phenology of co-occurring Eucalyptus species

Growth is one of the most important phenological cycles in a plant’s life. Higher growth rates increase the competitive ability, survival and recruitment and can provide a measure of a plant’s adaptive capacity to climate variability and change. This study identified the growth relationship of six Eucalyptus species to variations in temperature, soil moisture availability, photoperiod length and air humidity over 12 months. The six species represent two naturally co-occurring groups of three species each representing warm-dry and the cool-moist sclerophyll forests, respectively. Warm-dry eucalypts were found to be more tolerant of higher temperatures and lower air humidity than the cool-moist eucalypts. Within groups, species-specific responses were detected with Eucalyptus microcarpa having the widest phenological niche of the warm-dry species, exhibiting greater resistance to high temperature and lower air humidity. Temperature dependent photoperiodic responses were exhibited by all the species except Eucalyptus tricarpa and Eucalyptus sieberi, which were able to maintain growth as photoperiod shortened but temperature requirements were fulfilled. Eucalyptus obliqua exhibited a flexible growth rate and tolerance to moisture limitation which enables it to maintain its growth rate as water availability changes. The wider temperature niche exhibited by E. sieberi compared with E. obliqua and Eucalyptus radiata may improve its competitive ability over these species where winters are warm and moisture does not limit growth. With climate change expected to result in warmer and drier conditions in south-east Australia, the findings of this study suggest all cool-moist species will likely suffer negative effects on growth while the warm-dry species may still maintain current growth rates. Our findings highlight that climate driven shifts in growth phenology will likely occur as climate changes and this may facilitate changes in tree communities by altering inter-specific competition.