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1. With a modified version of the lake model BELAMO, we were able to describe the essential features of the dynamics of nutrients, dissolved oxygen, phyto‐ and zooplankton in three lakes of different trophic status over periods of 19–30 years, with essentially the same model parameters for all three lakes. This is remarkable, as the measured nutrient inputs decreased considerably during the simulated time period. 2. Despite having done this before for a period of 4 years with an earlier version of the model, a considerable effort was required that led to a series of model modifications without which the data could not be matched. This demonstrates that long‐term calibration of a model that combines processes in the water column with mineralisation in the sediment can be difficult. 3. Due to the necessarily simplified processes within the model, there is a bias in its output. We applied a recently developed technique for model calibration and uncertainty analysis to address bias and multiple calibration criteria. To account for the demanding long‐term simulations, a simplified numerical implementation of this technique was used. 4. Our results demonstrate good understanding of the chemical state of the lake during the calibration period but less of the biological variables. The credibility intervals used to visualise this knowledge widen substantially during the prediction period (consisting of the last 10 years of the simulation). 5. The joint calibration of the model with long‐term data from lakes of different trophic status is possible but only with considerable prediction uncertainty. Due to the explicit consideration of bias in our calibration technique, we are able to estimate quantitatively the uncertainty of our knowledge about chemical and biological variables in the lake.  相似文献   
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The susceptibility of three East Antarctic moss species to UV-B radiation was examined by measuring accumulation of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers under natural sunlight during the austral summer season of 2002/03. The 2002/03 season was characterized by unusually low springtime ozone depletion and as such our results likely underestimate the DNA damage possible in a more typical UV-B radiation season. Despite this all three species accumulated significant DNA photoproducts. We also found a positive association between photoproduct accumulation and incident UV-B radiation in the two cosmopolitan species, Bryum pseudotriquetrum and Ceratodon purpureus , with more DNA damage in samples collected early in the season compared with later in the summer. For B. pseudotriquetrum , negative associations were also observed between photoproduct accumulation and both turf water content and the 10-day mean air temperature. Photoproduct accumulation in the endemic species Schistidium antarctici was similarly high across the season and no significant association with environmental variables was found. Our results are consistent with the two cosmopolitan species having somewhat higher UV-B-screening capabilities and possibly more efficient mechanisms for repairing DNA damage than the endemic S. antarctici .  相似文献   
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This article describes a system for diagnosing mood disorders that is empirically derived and designed for its clinical utility in everyday practice. A ran-dom national sample of psychiatrists and clinical psychologists described a randomly selected current patient with a measure designed for clinically ex-perienced informants, the Mood Disorder Diagnostic Questionnaire (MDDQ), and completed additional research forms. We applied factor analysis to the MDDQ to identify naturally occurring diagnostic groupings within the patient sample. The analysis yielded three clinically distinct mood disorder dimen-sions or spectra, consistent with the major mood disturbances included in the DSM and ICD over successive editions (major depression, dysthymia, and mania), along with a suicide risk index. Diagnostic criteria were determined strictly empirically. Initial data using diagnostic efficiency statistics sup-ported the accuracy of the dimensions in discriminating DSM-IV diagnoses; regression analyses supported the discriminant validity of the MDDQ scales; and correlational analysis demonstrated coherent patterns of association with family history of mood disorders and functional outcomes, supporting va-lidity. Perhaps most importantly, the MDDQ diagnostic scales demonstrated incremental validity in predicting adaptive functioning and psychiatric his-tory over and above DSM-IV diagnosis. The empirically derived syndromes can be used to diagnose mood syndromes dimensionally without complex di-agnostic algorithms or can be combined into diagnostic prototypes that eliminate the need for ever-expanding categories of mood disorders that are clini-cally unwieldy.  相似文献   
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1. The correlation between water chemistry, physical variables and fish community composition was examined in 40 small (≤30 ha) coastal lakes in northern Sweden. Twenty of the 40 lakes were isolated from other water bodies and 20 were connected to the Baltic Sea. Lakes were fished in summer, using three different methods. Water chemistry was sampled in late winter prior to ice‐out and pH was measured additionally in summer. 2. Our central question was whether water chemistry plays a greater role in the composition of fish communities in isolated lakes than in connected lakes, as isolated lakes cannot be recolonised once a species has become extinct. 3. Results indicate that winter anoxia affects community composition only in isolated lakes, whereas acidity is of importance in both connected and isolated lakes. Methane (indicating anoxia), was significantly correlated with variation in fish community composition in isolated lakes, and a group of variables that indicate anoxia (CH4, pCO2, inorganic carbon and dissolved oxygen) explained 24–34% of the variation. pH alone explained 12% of the variation in community composition for connected lakes and a group of variables indicating acidity (summer and winter pH and ANC) explained 10–20% of the variation in isolated lakes. Lake area was the most important physical variable, being significantly correlated with the variation in fish community composition in connected lakes. 4. In isolated lakes, the presence of pike (Esox lucius), perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus) was associated with low CH4. The occurrence of crucian carp (Carassius carassius) and roach was positively correlated with pH, and the crucian carp was apparently also affected by predation by pike and perch. In connected lakes the effect of anoxia was low, probably due to the possibility of recolonisation and pockets of oxygenated water, allowing pike and perch to persist and thereby limiting the distribution of crucian carp.  相似文献   
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Symbiotic nitrogen fixation is one of the first physiological processes inhibited in legume plants under water‐deficit conditions. Despite the progress made in the last decades, the molecular mechanisms behind this regulation are not fully understood yet. Recent proteomic work carried out in the model legume Medicago truncatula provided the first indications of a possible involvement of nodule methionine (Met) biosynthesis and related pathways in response to water‐deficit conditions. To better understand this involvement, the drought‐induced changes in expression and content of enzymes involved in the biosynthesis of Met, S‐adenosyl‐L‐methionine (SAM) and ethylene in M. truncatula root and nodules were analyzed using targeted approaches. Nitrogen‐fixing plants were subjected to a progressive water deficit and a subsequent recovery period. Besides the physiological characterization of the plants, the content of total sulphur, sulphate and main S‐containing metabolites was measured. Results presented here show that S availability is not a limiting factor in the drought‐induced decline of nitrogen fixation rates in M. truncatula plants and provide evidences for a down‐regulation of the Met and ethylene biosynthesis pathways in roots and nodules in response to water‐deficit conditions.  相似文献   
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  • 1 Trade‐off theory has been extensively used to further our understanding of animal behaviour. In mammalian herbivores, it has been used to advance our understanding of their reproductive, parental care and foraging strategies. Here, we detail how trade‐off theory can be applied to herbivore–parasite interactions, especially in foraging environments.
  • 2 Foraging is a common mode of uptake of parasites that represent the most pervasive challenge to mammalian fitness and survival. Hosts are hypothesized to alter their foraging behaviour in the presence of parasites in three ways: (i) hosts avoid foraging in areas that are contaminated with parasites; (ii) hosts select diets that increase their resistance and resilience to parasites; and (iii) hosts select for foods with direct anti‐parasitic properties (self‐medication). We concentrate on the mammalian herbivore literature to detail the recent advances made using trade‐off frameworks to understand the mechanisms behind host–parasite interactions in relation to these three hypotheses.
  • 3 In natural systems, animals often face complex foraging decisions including nutrient intake vs. predation risk, nutrient intake vs. sheltering and nutrient intake vs. parasite risk trade‐offs. A trade‐off framework is detailed that can be used to interpret mammal behaviour in complex environments, and may be used to advance the self‐medication hypothesis.
  • 4 The use of trade‐off theory has advanced our understanding of the contact process between grazing mammalian hosts and their parasites transmitted via the faecal–oral route. Experimental manipulation of the costs and benefits of a nutrient intake vs. parasite risk trade‐off has shown that environmental conditions (forage quality and quantity) and the physiological state (parasitic and immune status) of a mammalian host can both affect the behavioural decisions of foraging animals.
  • 5 Naturally occurring trade‐offs and the potential to manipulate their costs and benefits enables us to identify the abilities and behavioural rules used by mammals when making decisions in complex environments and thus predict animal behaviour.
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