Forecasting intensifying disturbance effects on coral reefs

Anticipating future changes of an ecosystem's dynamics requires knowledge of how its key communities respond to current environmental regimes. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under threat, with rapid changes of its reef‐building hard coral (HC) community structure already evident across broad spatial scales. While several underlying relationships between HC and multiple disturbances have been documented, responses of other benthic communities to disturbances are not well understood. Here we used statistical modelling to explore the effects of broad‐scale climate‐related disturbances on benthic communities to predict their structure under scenarios of increasing disturbance frequency. We parameterized a multivariate model using the composition of benthic communities estimated by 145,000 observations from the northern GBR between 2012 and 2017. During this time, surveyed reefs were variously impacted by two tropical cyclones and two heat stress events that resulted in extensive HC mortality. This unprecedented sequence of disturbances was used to estimate the effects of discrete versus interacting disturbances on the compositional structure of HC, soft corals (SC) and algae. Discrete disturbances increased the prevalence of algae relative to HC while the interaction between cyclones and heat stress was the main driver of the increase in SC relative to algae and HC. Predictions from disturbance scenarios included relative increases in algae versus SC that varied by the frequency and types of disturbance interactions. However, high uncertainty of compositional changes in the presence of several disturbances shows that responses of algae and SC to the decline in HC needs further research. Better understanding of the effects of multiple disturbances on benthic communities as a whole is essential for predicting the future status of coral reefs and managing them in the light of new environmental regimes. The approach we develop here opens new opportunities for reaching this goal.     

Mangrove blue carbon stocks and dynamics are controlled by hydrogeomorphic settings and land‐use change

Globally, carbon‐rich mangrove forests are deforested and degraded due to land‐use and land‐cover change (LULCC). The impact of mangrove deforestation on carbon emissions has been reported on a global scale; however, uncertainty remains at subnational scales due to geographical variability and field data limitations. We present an assessment of blue carbon storage at five mangrove sites across West Papua Province, Indonesia, a region that supports 10% of the world's mangrove area. The sites are representative of contrasting hydrogeomorphic settings and also capture change over a 25‐years LULCC chronosequence. Field‐based assessments were conducted across 255 plots covering undisturbed and LULCC‐affected mangroves (0‐, 5‐, 10‐, 15‐ and 25‐year‐old post‐harvest or regenerating forests as well as 15‐year‐old aquaculture ponds). Undisturbed mangroves stored total ecosystem carbon stocks of 182–2,730 (mean ± SD: 1,087 ± 584) Mg C/ha, with the large variation driven by hydrogeomorphic settings. The highest carbon stocks were found in estuarine interior (EI) mangroves, followed by open coast interior, open coast fringe and EI forests. Forest harvesting did not significantly affect soil carbon stocks, despite an elevated dead wood density relative to undisturbed forests, but it did remove nearly all live biomass. Aquaculture conversion removed 60% of soil carbon stock and 85% of live biomass carbon stock, relative to reference sites. By contrast, mangroves left to regenerate for more than 25 years reached the same level of biomass carbon compared to undisturbed forests, with annual biomass accumulation rates of 3.6 ± 1.1 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1. This study shows that hydrogeomorphic setting controls natural dynamics of mangrove blue carbon stocks, while long‐term land‐use changes affect carbon loss and gain to a substantial degree. Therefore, current land‐based climate policies must incorporate landscape and land‐use characteristics, and their related carbon management consequences, for more effective emissions reduction targets and restoration outcomes.     

Decoupling of impact factors reveals the response of German winter wheat yields to climatic changes

Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site‐specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)‐fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain‐filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West‐European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid‐1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature‐related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change.     

Plant carbon allocation drives turnover of old soil organic matter in permafrost tundra soils

Carbon cycle feedbacks from permafrost ecosystems are expected to accelerate global climate change. Shifts in vegetation productivity and composition in permafrost regions could influence soil organic carbon (SOC) turnover rates via rhizosphere (root zone) priming effects (RPEs), but these processes are not currently accounted for in model predictions. We use a radiocarbon (bomb‐¹⁴C) approach to test for RPEs in two Arctic tall shrubs, alder (Alnus viridis (Chaix) DC.) and birch (Betula glandulosa Michx.), and in ericaceous heath tundra vegetation. We compare surface CO₂ efflux rates and ¹⁴C content between intact vegetation and plots in which below‐ground allocation of recent photosynthate was prevented by trenching and removal of above‐ground biomass. We show, for the first time, that recent photosynthate drives mineralization of older (>50 years old) SOC under birch shrubs and ericaceous heath tundra. By contrast, we find no evidence of RPEs in soils under alder. This is the first direct evidence from permafrost systems that vegetation influences SOC turnover through below‐ground C allocation. The vulnerability of SOC to decomposition in permafrost systems may therefore be directly linked to vegetation change, such that expansion of birch shrubs across the Arctic could increase decomposition of older SOC. Our results suggest that carbon cycle models that do not include RPEs risk underestimating the carbon cycle feedbacks associated with changing conditions in tundra regions.     

Global changes may be promoting a rise in select cyanobacteria in nutrient‐poor northern lakes

The interacting effects of global changes—including increased temperature, altered precipitation, reduced acidification and increased dissolved organic matter loads to lakes—are anticipated to create favourable environmental conditions for cyanobacteria in northern lakes. However, responses of cyanobacteria to these global changes are complex, if not contradictory. We hypothesized that absolute and relative biovolumes of cyanobacteria (both total and specific genera) are increasing in Swedish nutrient‐poor lakes and that these increases are associated with global changes. We tested these hypotheses using data from 28 nutrient‐poor Swedish lakes over 16 years (1998–2013). Increases in cyanobacteria relative biovolume were identified in 21% of the study sites, primarily in the southeastern region of Sweden, and were composed mostly of increases from three specific genera: Merismopedia, Chroococcus and Dolichospermum. Taxon‐specific changes were related to different environmental stressors; that is, increased surface water temperature favoured higher Merismopedia relative biovolume in low pH lakes with high nitrogen to phosphorus ratios, whereas acidification recovery was statistically related to increased relative biovolumes of Chroococcus and Dolichospermum. In addition, enhanced dissolved organic matter loads were identified as potential determinants of Chroococcus suppression and Dolichospermum promotion. Our findings highlight that specific genera of cyanobacteria benefit from different environmental changes. Our ability to predict the risk of cyanobacteria prevalence requires consideration of the environmental condition of a lake and the sensitivities of the cyanobacteria genera within the lake. Regional patterns may emerge due to spatial autocorrelations within and among lake history, rates and direction of environmental change and the niche space occupied by specific cyanobacteria.     

Growth and resilience responses of Scots pine to extreme droughts across Europe depend on predrought growth conditions

Global climate change is expected to further raise the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as droughts. The effects of extreme droughts on trees are difficult to disentangle given the inherent complexity of drought events (frequency, severity, duration, and timing during the growing season). Besides, drought effects might be modulated by trees’ phenotypic variability, which is, in turn, affected by long‐term local selective pressures and management legacies. Here we investigated the magnitude and the temporal changes of tree‐level resilience (i.e., resistance, recovery, and resilience) to extreme droughts. Moreover, we assessed the tree‐, site‐, and drought‐related factors and their interactions driving the tree‐level resilience to extreme droughts. We used a tree‐ring network of the widely distributed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along a 2,800 km latitudinal gradient from southern Spain to northern Germany. We found that the resilience to extreme drought decreased in mid‐elevation and low productivity sites from 1980–1999 to 2000–2011 likely due to more frequent and severe droughts in the later period. Our study showed that the impact of drought on tree‐level resilience was not dependent on its latitudinal location, but rather on the type of sites trees were growing at and on their growth performances (i.e., magnitude and variability of growth) during the predrought period. We found significant interactive effects between drought duration and tree growth prior to drought, suggesting that Scots pine trees with higher magnitude and variability of growth in the long term are more vulnerable to long and severe droughts. Moreover, our results indicate that Scots pine trees that experienced more frequent droughts over the long‐term were less resistant to extreme droughts. We, therefore, conclude that the physiological resilience to extreme droughts might be constrained by their growth prior to drought, and that more frequent and longer drought periods may overstrain their potential for acclimation.     

Variation in the phenology of photosynthesis among eastern white pine provenances in response to warming

In higher‐latitude trees, temperature and photoperiod control the beginning and end of the photosynthetically active season. Elevated temperature (ET) has advanced spring warming and delayed autumn cooling while photoperiod remains unchanged. We assessed the effects of warming on the length of the photosynthetically active season of three provenances of Pinus strobus L. seedlings from different latitudes, and evaluated the accuracy of the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) and the chlorophyll/carotenoid index (CCI) for tracking the predicted variation in spring and autumn phenology of photosynthesis among provenances. Seedlings from northern, local and southern P. strobus provenances were planted in a temperature‐free‐air‐controlled enhancement (T‐FACE) experiment and exposed to ET (+1.5/3°C; day/night). Over 18 months, we assessed photosynthetic phenology by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence, gas exchange, leaf spectral reflectance and pigment content. During autumn, all seedlings regardless of provenance followed the same sequence of phenological events with the initial downregulation of photosynthesis, followed by the modulation of non‐photochemical quenching and associated adjustments of zeaxanthin pool sizes. However, the timing of autumn downregulation differed between provenances, with delayed onset in the southern provenance (SP) and earlier onset in the northern relative to the local provenance, indicating that photoperiod at the provenance origin is a dominant factor controlling autumn phenology. Experimental warming further delayed the downregulation of photosynthesis during autumn in the SP. A provenance effect during spring was also observed but was generally not significant. The vegetation indices PRI and CCI were both effective at tracking the seasonal variations of energy partitioning in needles and the differences of carotenoid pigments indicative of the stress status of needles. These results demonstrate that PRI and CCI can be useful tools for monitoring conifer phenology and for the remote monitoring of the length of the photosynthetically active season of conifers in a changing climate.