Predictive systems ecology

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.     

Shedding light on moths: shorter wavelengths attract noctuids more than geometrids

With moth declines reported across Europe, and parallel changes in the amount and spectra of street lighting, it is important to understand exactly how artificial lights affect moth populations. We therefore compared the relative attractiveness of shorter wavelength (SW) and longer wavelength (LW) lighting to macromoths. SW light attracted significantly more individuals and species of moth, either when used alone or in competition with LW lighting. We also found striking differences in the relative attractiveness of different wavelengths to different moth groups. SW lighting attracted significantly more Noctuidae than LW, whereas both wavelengths were equally attractive to Geometridae. Understanding the extent to which different groups of moth are attracted to different wavelengths of light will be useful in determining the impact of artificial light on moth populations.     

Contrasting geographic patterns of genetic variation for molecular markers vs. phenotypic traits in the energy grass Miscanthus sinensis

Species and hybrids of Miscanthus are a promising energy crop, but their outcrossing mating systems and perennial life cycles are serious challenges for breeding programs. One approach to accelerating the domestication of Miscanthus is to harness the tremendous genetic variation that is present within this genus using phenotypic data from extensive field trials, high‐density genotyping and sequencing technologies, and rapidly developing statistical methods of relating phenotype to genotype. The success of this approach, however, hinges on detailed knowledge about the population genetic structure of the germplasm used in the breeding program. We therefore used data for 120 single‐nucleotide polymorphism and 52 simple sequence repeat markers to depict patterns of putatively neutral population structure among 244 Miscanthus genotypes grown in a field trial near Aberystwyth (UK) and delineate a population of 145 M . sinensis genotypes that will be used for association mapping and genomic selection. Comparative multivariate analyses of molecular marker and phenotypic data for 17 traits related to phenology, morphology/biomass, and cell wall composition revealed significant geographic patterns in this population. A longitudinal cline accounted for a substantial proportion of molecular marker variation (R² = 0.60, P = 3.4 × 10^?15). In contrast, genetic variation for phenotypic traits tended to follow latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, with several traits appearing to have been affected by divergent selection (i.e., Q_ST >> F_ST). These contrasting geographic trends are unusual relative to other plants and provide opportunities for powerful studies of phenotype–genotype associations and the evolutionary history of M. sinensis.     

Associations between Extending Access to Primary Care and Emergency Department Visits: A Difference-In-Differences Analysis

BackgroundHealth services across the world increasingly face pressures on the use of expensive hospital services. Better organisation and delivery of primary care has the potential to manage demand and reduce costs for hospital services, but routine primary care services are not open during evenings and weekends.Extended access (evening and weekend opening) is hypothesized to reduce pressure on hospital services from emergency department visits. However, the existing evidence-base is weak, largely focused on emergency out-of-hours services, and analysed using a before-and after-methodology without effective comparators.ConclusionsThe study found that extending access was associated with a reduction in emergency department visits in the first 12 months. The results of the research have already informed the decision by National Health Service England to extend primary care access across Greater Manchester from 2016. However, further evidence is needed to understand whether extending primary care access is cost-effective and sustainable.     

An approach to overcoming regeneration recalcitrance in genetic transformation of lupins and other legumes

For pulse legume research to fully capitalise on developments in plant molecular genetics, a high throughput genetic transformation methodology is required. In Western Australia the dominant grain legume is Lupinus angustifolius L. (narrow leafed lupin; NLL). Standard transformation methodology utilising Agrobacterium tumefaciens on wounded NLL seedling shoot apices, in combination with two different herbicide selections (phosphinothricin and glyphosate) is time consuming, inefficient, and produces chimeric shoots that often fail to yield transgenic progeny. Investigation of hygromycin as an alternative selection in combination with expression of green fluorescent protein indicated that transformation of NLL apical cells was not the rate limiting step to achieve transgenic shoot materials. In this research it was identified that despite ready transformation, apical cells were not competent to regenerate. However a deep and broad wounding procedure to expose underlying axillary shoot and vascular cells to Agrobacterium, in combination with delayed selection proved successful, increasing initial explants transformation efficiency up to 75?% and generating axillary shoots with significant transgenic content. Based on knowledge gained from studies of plant chimeras, further subculture of these initial axillary shoots will result in development of low chimeric transgenic materials with heritable content. Furthermore, the method was also tested successfully on other Lupinus species, faba bea and field pea. These results demonstrate that development of a high yielding transformation methodology for pulse legume crops is achievable.     

Demographic buffering and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of disease in a wildlife population

Demographic buffering allows populations to persist by compensating for fluctuations in vital rates, including disease‐induced mortality. Using long‐term data on a badger (Meles meles Linnaeus, 1758) population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis, we built an integrated population model to quantify impacts of disease, density and environmental drivers on survival and recruitment. Badgers exhibit a slow life‐history strategy, having high rates of adult survival with low variance, and low but variable rates of recruitment. Recruitment exhibited strong negative density‐dependence, but was not influenced by disease, while adult survival was density independent but declined with increasing prevalence of diseased individuals. Given that reproductive success is not depressed by disease prevalence, density‐dependent recruitment of cubs is likely to compensate for disease‐induced mortality. This combination of slow life history and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of a naturally infected badger population and helps to explain the badger's role as a persistent reservoir of M. bovis.     

Exploration of Ellsworth Subglacial Lake: a concept paper on the development, organisation and execution of an experiment to explore, measure and sample the environment of a West Antarctic subglacial lake

Antarctic subglacial lakes have, over the past few years, been hypothesised to house unique forms of life and hold detailed sedimentary records of past climate change. Testing this hypothesis requires in situ examinations. The direct measurement of subglacial lakes has been considered ever since the largest and best-known lake, named Lake Vostok, was identified as having a deep water-column. The Subglacial Antarctic Lake Environments (SALE) programme, set up by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) to oversee subglacial lakes research, state that prior exploration of smaller lakes would be a “prudent way forward”. Over 145 subglacial lakes are known to exist in Antarctica, but one lake in West Antarctica, officially named Ellsworth Subglacial Lake (referred to hereafter as Lake Ellsworth), stands out as a candidate for early exploration. A consortium of over 20 scientists from seven countries and 14 institutions has been assembled to plan the exploration of Lake Ellsworth. An eight-year programme is envisaged: 3 years for a geophysical survey, 2 years for equipment development and testing, 1 year for field planning and operation, and 2 years for sample analysis and data interpretation. The science experiment is simple in concept but complex in execution. Lake Ellsworth will be accessed using hot water drilling. Once lake access is achieved, a probe will be lowered down the borehole and into the lake. The probe will contain a series of instruments to measure biological, chemical and physical characteristics of the lake water and sediments, and will utilise a tether to the ice surface through which power, communication and data will be transmitted. The probe will pass through the water column to the lake floor. The probe will then be pulled up and out of the lake, measuring its environment continually as this is done. Once at the ice surface, any water samples collected will be taken from the probe for laboratory analysis (to take place over subsequent years). The duration of the science mission, from deployment of the probe to its retrieval, is likely to take between 24 and 36 h. Measurements to be taken by the probe will provide data about the following: depth, pressure, conductivity and temperature; pH levels; biomolecules (using life marker chips); anions (using a chemical analyzer); visualisation of the environment (using cameras and light sources); dissolved gases (using chromatography); and morphology of the lake floor and sediment structures (using sonar). After the probe has been retrieved, a sediment corer may be dropped into the lake to recover material from the lake floor. Finally, if time permits, a thermistor string may be left in the lake water to take time-dependent measurements of the lake’s water column over subsequent years. Given that the comprehensive geophysical survey of the lake will take place in two seasons during 2007–2009, a two-year instrument and logistic development phase from 2008 (after the lake’s bathymetry has been assessed) makes it possible that the exploration of Lake Ellsworth could take place at the beginning of the next decade.     

CURRICULUM GUIDE FOR RESEARCH ETHICS WORKSHOPS FOR COUNTRIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

To help ensure the ethical conduct of research, many have recommended educational efforts in research ethics to investigators and members of research ethics committees (RECs). One type of education activity involves multi‐day workshops in research ethics. To be effective, such workshops should contain the appropriate content and teaching techniques geared towards the learning styles of the targeted audiences. To ensure consistency in content and quality, we describe the development of a curriculum guide, core competencies and associated learning objectives and activities to help educators organize research ethics workshops in their respective institutions. The curriculum guide is divided into modular units to enable planners to develop workshops of different lengths and choose content materials that match the needs, abilities, and prior experiences of the target audiences. The content material in the curriculum guide is relevant for audiences in the Middle East, because individuals from the Middle East who participated in a Certificate Program in research ethics selected and developed the training materials (e.g., articles, powerpoint slides, case studies, protocols). Also, many of the activities incorporate active‐learning methods, consisting of group work activities analyzing case studies and reviewing protocols. The development of such a workshop training curriculum guide represents a sustainable educational resource to enhance research ethics capacity in the Middle East.