Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus.

Methods and Findings

Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible–infected–recovered (TSIR) epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R ₀, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40) and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34), with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation). EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the post-EV-A71-vaccination period remained either comparable to or only slightly increased from levels prior to vaccination. The duration and strength of cross-protection following infection with EV-A71 or CV-A16 was estimated to be 9.95 wk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31, 23.40) in 68% of the population (95% CI: 37%, 96%). Our predictions are limited by the necessarily short and under-sampled time series and the possible circulation of unidentified serotypes, but, nonetheless, sensitivity analyses indicate that our results are robust in predicting that the vaccine should drastically reduce incidence of EV-A71 without a substantial competitive release of CV-A16.

Conclusions

The ability of our models to capture the observed epidemic cycles suggests that herd immunity is driving the epidemic dynamics caused by the multiple serotypes of enterovirus. Our results predict that the EV-A71 and CV-A16 serotypes provide a temporary immunizing effect against each other. Achieving high coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination would be necessary to eliminate the ongoing transmission of EV-A71, but serotype replacement by CV-A16 following EV-A71 vaccination is likely to be transient and minor compared to the corresponding reduction in the burden of EV-A71-associated HFMD. Therefore, a mass EV-A71 vaccination program of infants and young children should provide significant benefits in terms of a reduction in overall HFMD burden.     

Factors Associated with Therapeutic Efficacy of Intravesical OnabotulinumtoxinA Injection for Overactive Bladder Syndrome

Objectives

To analyze the predictors of therapeutic efficacy after intravesical botulinum toxin A injection for overactive bladder syndrome (OAB) refractory to antimuscarinic therapy.

Methods

All consecutively OAB patients, who visited the urologic outpatient clinics of a medical center and refractory to antimuscarinic treatment, were prospectively enrolled. All enrolled patients received intravesical injection of 100 U onabotulinumtoxinA (Botox). The Global Response Assessment (GRA) score ≥ 2 at 3 months after Botox injection was defined as a successful treatment, otherwise failed.

Results

Overall, 89 patients received intravesical injection. Eighty patients, including 42 men and 38 women, had received follow-up at 3 months. The overall success rate was 63.8%. The global response assessment, urgency severity score, urgency, urgency urinary incontinence and frequency episodes, and functional bladder capacity improved after treatment. However, post-void residual volume (PVR) increased, and voiding efficiency (VE) decreased after treatment. Female gender (odds ratio = 3.75) was the only independent factor associated with the success. Female gender (coefficient = 0.74), low baseline overactive bladder symptoms score (coefficient = -0.12) and the presence of OAB-wet (coefficient = 0.79) were independent factors associated with therapeutic efficacy (i.e., GRA score). VE (odds ratio = 0.062) was the only predictor for a large PVR at 3 months. The optimum cutoff value of VE was <87% with the area under the ROC curve being 0.64 (sensitivity = 63.8%, specificity = 57.1%).

Conclusions

The therapeutic effects of Botox can persist till 6 months after treatment. Female gender, low overactive bladder symptoms score and OAB-wet are associated better therapeutic efficacy, and low baseline VE is associated with large PVR. These findings can serve as an initial guide or assist in consultation regarding the treatment of OAB patients with Botox injection.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01657409","term_id":"NCT01657409"}}NCT01657409     

Distinct intracellular signaling mediates C‐MET regulation of dendritic growth and synaptogenesis

Hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) activation of the MET receptor tyrosine kinase influences multiple neurodevelopmental processes. Evidence from human imaging and mouse models shows that, in the forebrain, disruptions in MET signaling alter circuit formation and function. One likely means of modulation is by controlling neuron maturation. Here, we examined the signaling mechanisms through which MET exerts developmental effects in the neocortex. In situ hybridization revealed that hgf is located near MET‐expressing neurons, including deep neocortical layers and periventricular zones. Western blot analyses of neocortical crude membranes demonstrated that HGF‐induced MET autophosphorylation peaks during synaptogenesis, with a striking reduction in activation between P14 and P17 just before pruning. In vitro analysis of postnatal neocortical neurons assessed the roles of intracellular signaling following MET activation. There is rapid, HGF‐induced phosphorylation of MET, ERK1/2, and Akt that is accompanied by two major morphological changes: increases in total dendritic growth and synapse density. Selective inhibition of each signaling pathway altered only one of the two distinct events. MAPK/ERK pathway inhibition significantly reduced the HGF‐induced increase in dendritic length, but had no effect on synapse density. In contrast, inhibition of the PI3K/Akt pathway reduced HGF‐induced increases in synapse density, with no effect on dendritic length. The data reveal a key role for MET activation during the period of neocortical neuron growth and synaptogenesis, with distinct biological outcomes mediated via discrete MET‐linked intracellular signaling pathways in the same neurons. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Develop Neurobiol 76: 1160–1181, 2016     

Metagenomic Investigation of Plasma in Individuals with ME/CFS Highlights the Importance of Technical Controls to Elucidate Contamination and Batch Effects

Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS) is a debilitating disease causing indefinite fatigue. ME/CFS has long been hypothesised to have an infectious cause; however, no specific infectious agent has been identified. We used metagenomics to analyse the RNA from plasma samples from 25 individuals with ME/CFS and compare their microbial content to technical controls as well as three control groups: individuals with alternatively diagnosed chronic Lyme syndrome (N = 13), systemic lupus erythematosus (N = 11), and healthy controls (N = 25). We found that the majority of sequencing reads were removed during host subtraction, thus there was very low microbial RNA content in the plasma. The effects of sample batching and contamination during sample processing proved to outweigh the effects of study group on microbial RNA content, as the few differences in bacterial or viral RNA abundance we did observe between study groups were most likely caused by contamination and batch effects. Our results highlight the importance of including negative controls in all metagenomic analyses, since there was considerable overlap between bacterial content identified in study samples and control samples. For example, Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria, and Bacteriodes were found in both study samples and plasma-free negative controls. Many of the taxonomic groups we saw in our plasma-free negative control samples have previously been associated with diseases, including ME/CFS, demonstrating how incorrect conclusions may arise if controls are not used and batch effects not accounted for.     

Comparison of Baseline versus Posttreatment Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure for Predicting Cardiovascular Outcome: Implications from Single-Center Systolic Heart Failure Cohort

Aims

The prognostic values of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) during heart failure (HF) with acute decompensation or after optimal treatment have not been extensively studied. We hypothesized that posttreatment LVEF has superior predictive value for long-term prognosis than LVEF at admission does.

Methods and Results

In Protocol 1, 428 acute decompensated HF (ADHF) patients with LVEF ≤35% in a tertiary medical center were enrolled and followed for a mean period of 34.7 ± 10.8 months. The primary and secondary end points were all-cause mortality and HF readmission, respectively. In total, 86 deaths and 240 HF readmissions were recorded. The predictive values of baseline LVEF at admission and LVEF 6 months posttreatment were analyzed and compared. The posttreatment LVEFs were predictive for future events (P = 0.01 for all-cause mortality, P < 0.001 for HF readmission), but the baseline LVEFs were not. In Protocol 2, the outcomes of patients with improved LVEF (change of LVEF: ≥+10%), unchanged LVEF (change of LVEF: –10% to +10%), and reduced LVEF (change of LVEF: ≤–10%) were analyzed and compared. Improved LVEF occurred in 171 patients and was associated with a superior long-term prognosis among all groups (P = 0.02 for all-cause mortality, P < 0.001 for HF readmission). In Protocol 3, independent predictors of improved LVEF were analyzed, and baseline LV end-diastolic dimension (LVEDD) was identified as a powerful predictor in ADHF patients (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

In patients with ADHF, posttreatment LVEF but not baseline LVEF had prognostic power. Improved LVEF was associated with superior long-term prognosis, and baseline LVEDD identified patients who were more likely to have improved LVEF. Therefore, baseline LVEF should not be considered a relevant prognosis factor in clinical practice for patients with ADHF.     

Clinical and Molecular Characterization of BSCL2 Mutations in a Taiwanese Cohort with Hereditary Neuropathy

Background

A small group of patients with inherited neuropathy that has been shown to be caused by mutations in the BSCL2 gene. However, little information is available about the role of BSCL2 mutations in inherited neuropathies in Taiwan.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Utilizing targeted sequencing, 76 patients with molecularly unassigned Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 2 (CMT2) and 8 with distal hereditary motor neuropathy (dHMN), who were selected from 348 unrelated patients with inherited neuropathies, were screened for mutations in the coding regions of BSCL2. Two heterozygous BSCL2 mutations, p.S90L and p.R96H, were identified, of which the p.R96H mutation is novel. The p.S90L was identified in a pedigree with CMT2 while the p.R96H was identified in a patient with apparently sporadic dHMN. In vitro studies demonstrated that the p.R96H mutation results in a remarkably low seipin expression and reduced cell viability.

Conclusion

BSCL2 mutations account for a small number of patients with inherited neuropathies in Taiwan. The p.R96H mutation is associated with dHMN. This study expands the molecular spectrum of BSCL2 mutations and also emphasizes the pathogenic role of BSCL2 mutations in molecularly unassigned hereditary neuropathies.     

Redrawing the US Obesity Landscape: Bias-Corrected Estimates of State-Specific Adult Obesity Prevalence

Background

State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic because they use self-reported height and weight. We describe a novel bias-correction method and produce corrected state-level estimates of obesity and severe obesity.

Methods

Using non-parametric statistical matching, we adjusted self-reported data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013 (n = 386,795) using measured data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 16,924). We validated our national estimates against NHANES and estimated bias-corrected state-specific prevalence of obesity (BMI≥30) and severe obesity (BMI≥35). We compared these results with previous adjustment methods.

Results

Compared to NHANES, self-reported BRFSS data underestimated national prevalence of obesity by 16% (28.67% vs 34.01%), and severe obesity by 23% (11.03% vs 14.26%). Our method was not significantly different from NHANES for obesity or severe obesity, while previous methods underestimated both. Only four states had a corrected obesity prevalence below 30%, with four exceeding 40%–in contrast, most states were below 30% in CDC maps.

Conclusions

Twelve million adults with obesity (including 6.7 million with severe obesity) were misclassified by CDC state-level estimates. Previous bias-correction methods also resulted in underestimates. Accurate state-level estimates are necessary to plan for resources to address the obesity epidemic.     

A population‐based temporal logic gate for timing and recording chemical events

Engineered bacterial sensors have potential applications in human health monitoring, environmental chemical detection, and materials biosynthesis. While such bacterial devices have long been engineered to differentiate between combinations of inputs, their potential to process signal timing and duration has been overlooked. In this work, we present a two‐input temporal logic gate that can sense and record the order of the inputs, the timing between inputs, and the duration of input pulses. Our temporal logic gate design relies on unidirectional DNA recombination mediated by bacteriophage integrases to detect and encode sequences of input events. For an E. coli strain engineered to contain our temporal logic gate, we compare predictions of Markov model simulations with laboratory measurements of final population distributions for both step and pulse inputs. Although single cells were engineered to have digital outputs, stochastic noise created heterogeneous single‐cell responses that translated into analog population responses. Furthermore, when single‐cell genetic states were aggregated into population‐level distributions, these distributions contained unique information not encoded in individual cells. Thus, final differentiated sub‐populations could be used to deduce order, timing, and duration of transient chemical events.     

Structural analysis of chloroplast tail‐anchored membrane protein recognition by ArsA1

In mammals and yeast, tail‐anchored (TA) membrane proteins destined for the post‐translational pathway are safely delivered to the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) membrane by a well‐known targeting factor, TRC40/Get3. In contrast, the underlying mechanism for translocation of TA proteins in plants remains obscure. How this unique eukaryotic membrane‐trafficking system correctly distinguishes different subsets of TA proteins destined for various organelles, including mitochondria, chloroplasts and the ER, is a key question of long standing. Here, we present crystal structures of algal ArsA1 (the Get3 homolog) in a distinct nucleotide‐free open state and bound to adenylyl‐imidodiphosphate. This approximately 80‐kDa protein possesses a monomeric architecture, with two ATPase domains in a single polypeptide chain. It is capable of binding chloroplast (TOC34 and TOC159) and mitochondrial (TOM7) TA proteins based on features of its transmembrane domain as well as the regions immediately before and after the transmembrane domain. Several helices located above the TA‐binding groove comprise the interlocking hook‐like motif implicated by mutational analyses in TA substrate recognition. Our data provide insights into the molecular basis of the highly specific selectivity of interactions of algal ArsA1 with the correct sets of TA substrates before membrane targeting in plant cells.