How Much Demand for New HIV Prevention Technologies Can We Really Expect? Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment in South Africa

Background

For the first time in the history of HIV, new bio-medical interventions have been shown to be effective in preventing HIV transmission. For these new HIV prevention technologies (NPTs) to have an impact on the epidemic, they must be widely used. This study uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to: understand the relative strength of women’s preferences for product characteristics, understand the implications for substitution away from male condoms, and inform realistic modelling of their potential impact and cost-effectiveness.

Methods

A DCE was conducted among 1017 women in urban South Africa. Women were presented with choices between potential women’s NPTs (microbicides, diaphragm, female condom) and ‘what I did last time’ (use or not use a condom) with different HIV and pregnancy prevention effectiveness’ and prices. Choice probabilities are estimated using the nested logit model and used to predict uptake.

Results

In this high HIV prevalence setting, HIV prevention effectiveness is the main driver of uptake followed by pregnancy prevention effectiveness. For example a microbicide with poor effectiveness would have niche appeal at just 11% predicted uptake, while a highly effective microbicide (95% effective against HIV and pregnancy) would have far wider appeal (56% predicted uptake). Though women who reported not using condoms were more likely to choose the NPTs, at current very high rates of male condom use in South Africa (60%), about half of microbicide uptake is projected to be among those currently not using condoms.

Conclusions

Women are very interested in NPTs, especially if highly effective in preventing HIV and pregnancy. Women in greatest need were also most likely to switch to the new products. Where products are not yet available for distribution, proxy data, such as that generated by DCEs, can bring realism to overly optimistic uptake scenarios found in many current impact models.     

A Randomized Trial of Two Coverage Targets for Mass Treatment with Azithromycin for Trachoma

Background

The World Health Organization recommends at least 3 annual antibiotic mass drug administrations (MDA) where the prevalence of trachoma is >10% in children ages 1–9 years, with coverage at least at 80%. However, the additional value of higher coverage targeted at children with multiple rounds is unknown.

Trial Design

2×2 factorial community randomized, double blind, trial.

Trial methods

32 communities with prevalence of trachoma ≥20% were randomized to: annual MDA aiming for coverage of children between 80%–90% (usual target) versus aiming for coverage>90% (enhanced target); and to: MDA for three years versus a rule of cessation of MDA early if the estimated prevalence of ocular C. trachomatis infection was less than 5%. The primary outcome was the community prevalence of infection with C. trachomatis at 36 months.

Results

Over the trial''s course, no community met the MDA cessation rule, so all communities had the full 3 rounds of MDA. At 36 months, there was no significant difference in the prevalence of infection, 4.0 versus 5.4 (mean adjusted difference = 1.4%, 95% CI = −1.0% to 3.8%), nor in the prevalence of trachoma, 6.1 versus 9.0 (mean adjusted difference = 2.6%, 95% CI = −0.3% to 5.3%) comparing the usual target to the enhanced target group. There was no difference if analyzed using coverage as a continuous variable.

Conclusion

In communities that had pre-treatment prevalence of follicular trachoma of 20% or greater, there is no evidence that MDA can be stopped before 3 annual rounds, even with high coverage. Increasing coverage in children above 90% does not appear to confer additional benefit.     

Hydrogen sulphide-related thiol metabolism and nutrigenetics in relation to hypertension in an elderly population

Hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) is a gaseous signalling molecule that regulates blood flow and pressure. It is synthesised from cysteine via cystathionine β-synthase and cystathionine γ-lyase. We examined whether thiol precursors of H₂S, transsulphuration pathway gene variants (CBS-844ins68 and CTH-G1364T) and key B-vitamin cofactors might be critical determinants of hypertension in an elderly Australian population. An elderly Australian retirement village population (n = 228; age 65–96 years, 91 males and 137 females) was assessed for the prevalence of two transsulphuration pathway–related variant genes associated with cysteine synthesis and hence H₂S production. Thiols were determined by HPLC, genotypes by PCR and dietary intake by food frequency questionnaire. Homocysteine levels were statistically higher in the hypertensive phenotype (p = 0.0399), but there was no difference for cysteine or glutathione. Using nominal logistic regression, cysteine, CTH-G1364T genotype, dietary synthetic folate and vitamin B₆ predicted clinical phenotype (determined as above/below 140/90 mm Hg) and then only in female subjects (p = 0.0239, 0.0178, 0.0249 and 0.0371, respectively). Least-squares regression supports cysteine being highly inversely predictive of diastolic blood pressure: p and r ² values <0.0001 and 0.082; 0.0409 and 0.046; and <0.0001 and 0.113 for all subjects, males and females, respectively. Additionally, CTH-G1364T genotype predicts diastolic blood pressure in males (p = 0.0217; r ² = 0.083), but contrasts with observations for females. Overall, analyses, including stepwise regression, suggest cysteine, dietary natural and synthetic folate, vitamins B₆ and B₁₂, and both genetic variants (CTH-C1364T and CBS-844ins68) are all aetiologically relevant in the regulation of blood pressure. Hydrogen sulphide is a vasorelaxant gasotransmitter with characteristics similar to nitric oxide. Cysteine and the G1364T and 844ins68 variants of the cystathionine γ-lyase and cystathionine β-synthase genes, respectively, are the biological determinants of H₂S synthesis, and all three are shown here to influence the hypertensive phenotype. Additionally, B-vitamin cofactors for these three enzymes may also be important determinants of blood pressure.     

Discovery of exposure markers in urine for Brassica-containing meals served with different protein sources by UPLC-qTOF-MS untargeted metabolomics

An untargeted metabolomics approach has been applied to discover and identify exposure markers in urine for nine Nordic meals. A cross-over meal study was carried out in 17 subjects. The meals included a Pie, a Soup and a Barleyotto (pearl barley based risotto), each prepared with three protein sources; meat, fish or vegetarian. Urine samples were collected in different time intervals before and after intake of the test meals, covering a total of 24 h. The samples were analyzed by UPLC-qTOF-MS. Discriminating features for meals and protein sources were selected by use of double cross-validated partial least squares discriminant analysis and two additional validation steps: (1) time-course of excretion and (2) analysis of sensitivity and specificity. In addition, eight meal studies with single foods were carried out to investigate the food sources of the markers. In total 31 potential exposure markers (PEMs) of foods were found for the meals and protein sources. Fifteen of the 31 PEMs were also found in studies with single foods. Ten PEMs were identified or putatively annotated. Among the PEMs were a range of conjugated isothiocyanates from the Brassica oleracea species. Trimethylamine N-oxide was found as a fish marker. Additional unknown PEMs were found for chicory salad, parsley and fava beans, while other PEMs were dependent on the meal matrix rather than individual foods. The study demonstrates that it is possible to find PEMs in 24 h urine samples even when foods are given as part of a complex meal.     

Primary Breast Cancer Tumours Contain High Amounts of IgA1 Immunoglobulin: An Immunohistochemical Analysis of a Possible Carrier of the Tumour-Associated Tn Antigen

The Tn antigen (GalNAc alpha-O-Ser/Thr) as defined by the binding of the lectin, helix pomatia agglutinin (HPA) or anti-Tn monoclonal antibodies, is known to be exposed in a majority of cancers, and it has also been shown to correlate positively with the metastatic capacity in breast carcinoma. The short O-glycan that forms the antigen is carried by a number of different proteins. One potential carrier of the Tn antigen is immunoglobulin A1 (IgA1), which we surprisingly found in tumour cells of the invasive parts of primary breast carcinoma. Conventional immunohistochemical analysis of paraffin-embedded sections from primary breast cancers showed IgA1 to be present in the cytoplasm and plasma membrane of 35 out of 36 individual primary tumours. The immunohistochemical staining of HPA and anti-Tn antibody (GOD3-2C4) did to some extent overlap with the presence of IgA1 in the tumours, but differences were seen in the percentage of stained cells and in the staining pattern in the different breast cancers analysed. Anti-Tn antibody and HPA were also shown to specifically bind to a number of possible constellations of the Tn antigen in the hinge region of IgA1. Both reagents could also detect the presence of Tn positive IgA in serum. On average 51% of the tumour cells in the individual breast cancer tumour sections showed staining for IgA1. The overall amount of staining in the invasive part of the tumour with the anti Tn antibody was 67%, and 93% with HPA. The intra-expression or uptake of IgA1 in breast cancer makes it a new potential carrier of the tumour associated and immunogenic Tn antigen.     

Determination of the Structure of the Catabolic N-Succinylornithine Transaminase (AstC) from Escherichia coli

Escherichia coli possesses two acyl ornithine aminotransferases, one catabolic (AstC) and the other anabolic (ArgD), that participate in L-arginine metabolism. Although only 58% identical, the enzymes have been shown to be functionally interchangeable. Here we have purified AstC and have obtained X-ray crystal structures of apo and holo-AstC and of the enzyme complexed with its physiological substrate, succinylornithine. We compare the structures obtained in this study with those of ArgD from Salmonella typhimurium obtained elsewhere, finding several notable differences. Docking studies were used to explore the docking modes of several substrates (ornithine, succinylornithine and acetylornithine) and the co-substrate glutamate/α-ketogluterate. The docking studies support our observations that AstC has a strong preference for acylated ornithine species over ornithine itself, and suggest that the increase in specificity associated with acylation is caused by steric and desolvation effects rather than specific interactions between the substrate and enzyme.     

Metabonomics Analysis of Plasma Reveals the Lactate to Cholesterol Ratio as an Independent Prognostic Factor of Short-Term Mortality in Acute Heart Failure

Objective

Mortality in heart failure (AHF) remains high, especially during the first days of hospitalization. New prognostic biomarkers may help to optimize treatment. The aim of the study was to determine metabolites that have a high prognostic value.

Methods

We conducted a prospective study on a training cohort of AHF patients (n = 126) admitted in the cardiac intensive care unit and assessed survival at 30 days. Venous plasmas collected at admission were used for ¹H NMR – based metabonomics analysis. Differences between plasma metabolite profiles allow determination of discriminating metabolites. A cohort of AHF patients was subsequently constituted (n = 74) to validate the findings.

Results

Lactate and cholesterol were the major discriminating metabolites predicting 30-day mortality. Mortality was increased in patients with high lactate and low total cholesterol concentrations at admission. Accuracies of lactate, cholesterol concentration and lactate to cholesterol (Lact/Chol) ratio to predict 30-day mortality were evaluated using ROC analysis. The Lact/Chol ratio provided the best accuracy with an AUC of 0.82 (P < 0.0001). The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II scoring system provided an AUC of 0.76 for predicting 30-day mortality. APACHE II score, Cardiogenic shock (CS) state and Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 (cutoff value with 82% sensitivity and 64% specificity) were significant independent predictors of 30-day mortality with hazard ratios (HR) of 1.11, 4.77 and 3.59, respectively. In CS patients, the HR of 30-day mortality risk for plasma Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 was 3.26 compared to a Lact/Chol ratio of < 0.4 (P  =  0.018). The predictive power of the Lact/Chol ratio for 30-day mortality outcome was confirmed with the independent validation cohort.

Conclusion

This study identifies the plasma Lact/Chol ratio as a useful objective and simple parameter to evaluate short term prognostic and could be integrated into quantitative guidance for decision making in heart failure care.