Cost-Effective Control of Plant Disease When Epidemiological Knowledge Is Incomplete: Modelling Bahia Bark Scaling of Citrus

A spatially-explicit, stochastic model is developed for Bahia bark scaling, a threat to citrus production in north-eastern Brazil, and is used to assess epidemiological principles underlying the cost-effectiveness of disease control strategies. The model is fitted via Markov chain Monte Carlo with data augmentation to snapshots of disease spread derived from a previously-reported multi-year experiment. Goodness-of-fit tests strongly supported the fit of the model, even though the detailed etiology of the disease is unknown and was not explicitly included in the model. Key epidemiological parameters including the infection rate, incubation period and scale of dispersal are estimated from the spread data. This allows us to scale-up the experimental results to predict the effect of the level of initial inoculum on disease progression in a typically-sized citrus grove. The efficacies of two cultural control measures are assessed: altering the spacing of host plants, and roguing symptomatic trees. Reducing planting density can slow disease spread significantly if the distance between hosts is sufficiently large. However, low density groves have fewer plants per hectare. The optimum density of productive plants is therefore recovered at an intermediate host spacing. Roguing, even when detection of symptomatic plants is imperfect, can lead to very effective control. However, scouting for disease symptoms incurs a cost. We use the model to balance the cost of scouting against the number of plants lost to disease, and show how to determine a roguing schedule that optimises profit. The trade-offs underlying the two optima we identify—the optimal host spacing and the optimal roguing schedule—are applicable to many pathosystems. Our work demonstrates how a carefully parameterised mathematical model can be used to find these optima. It also illustrates how mathematical models can be used in even this most challenging of situations in which the underlying epidemiology is ill-understood.     

重组人MASP2蛋白在大肠杆菌中的表达和纯化

目的:获得酶原形式的重组人甘露聚糖结合凝集素相关丝氨酸蛋白酶2(MASP2)。方法:在大肠杆菌中诱导表达重组人MASP2全长蛋白,包涵体裂解后,经复性、透析、浓缩、考马斯亮蓝染色、SDS-PAGE及Western印迹,鉴定纯化结果及酶活性。结果:复性后的MASP2蛋白经考马斯亮蓝染色未见杂带。自激活实验表明,当MASP2浓度在1μmool/L以下时,无论在4℃还是37℃,都能较稳定地保持酶原形式;蛋白浓度为3.5μmool/L时只能在4℃保持稳定,37℃发生自激活;蛋白浓度达到12μmool/L后,在4℃时已不能稳定存在。结论:获得了较纯的重组人MASP2蛋白,且具有自激活活性。     

胸内正压对正常人左室功能影响及其力学原理

目的：探讨胸内正压对正常人左室射血及充盈的影响及其力学原理。方法：超声心动图观测30例正常人初始时与标准乏氏动作张力期10s时左室舒张末容积（LVEDV）、左室收缩末容积（LVESV）、每搏量（SV）、射血分值（EF）、流入道血流速度（E峰、A峰）、E／A值、二尖瓣环舒张早期运动速度（e）及舒张早期充盈压（E/e）的变化。结果：与初始时比较,标准乏氏动作张力期LVEDV、LVESV及SV减低而心率（陬）增快（P均〈0．001）,EF值增加,但无统计学意义（P〉0．05）;E峰与E／A值减低（P均〈O．05）;e没有变化（P〉0．05）．E／e值减低（P〈O．05）。结论：胸内正压对左室游离壁的力学作用促进了左室收缩运动而阻碍了左室舒张运动,会引起EF值增加,E峰及E／A值减低;2,胸内正压降低了肺静脉系统与心脏的跨壁压力,增加了血流阻力也是导致肺静脉系统与左室血液回流减少．E峰减低．E／e值减低的一个原因。     

Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations

Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection) while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment). For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.     

Energy Crop and Biotechnology for Biofuel Production

Selection of energy crops is the first priority for large-scale biofuel production in China. As a major topic, it was extensively discussed in the Second International Symposium on Bioen-     

A hybrid zone and bidirectional introgression between two catadromous species: Australian bass Macquaria novemaculeata and estuary perch Macquaria colonorum

The presence and distribution of hybrid individuals and the existence of a hybrid zone between the catadromous Australian bass Macquaria novemaculeata and estuary perch Macquaria colonorum were investigated throughout the range of both species in Australia. Bayesian analyses and genotypic simulations identified 140 putative hybrids (11·5% of the total sample) with varying levels of introgression. Most hybrids were observed in an area extending from the Snowy River to the Albert River suggesting a hybrid zone in the eastern Bass Strait region. Sixteen hybrids, however, were found outside this zone, possibly reflecting the movement of hybrid offspring between estuaries or their inadvertent release during fish stocking programmes. Biparental backcrossing was found to occur suggesting that hybrids were fertile. These results have implications for the management of the extensive stocking programme in M. novemaculeata and for understanding the potential role of habitat degradation and reduced water flow in facilitating hybridization in species with migratory life histories.     

Disease control and its selection for damaging plant virus strains in vegetatively propagated staple food crops; a theoretical assessment

Viral diseases are a key constraint in the production of staple food crops in lesser developed countries. New and improved disease control methods are developed and implemented without consideration of the selective pressure they impose on the virus. In this paper, we analyse the evolution of within-plant virus titre as a response to the implementation of a range of disease control methods. We show that the development of new and improved disease control methods for viral diseases of vegetatively propagated staple food crops ought to take the evolutionary responses of the virus into consideration. Not doing so leads to a risk of failure, which can result in considerable economic losses and increased poverty. Specifically in vitro propagation, diagnostics and breeding methods carry a risk of failure due to the selection for virus strains that build up a high within-plant virus titre. For vegetatively propagated crops, sanitation by roguing has a low risk of failure owing to its combination of selecting for low virus titre strains as well as increasing healthy crop density.     

An epidemiological framework for modelling fungicide dynamics and control

Defining appropriate policies for controlling the spread of fungal disease in agricultural landscapes requires appropriate theoretical models. Most existing models for the fungicidal control of plant diseases do not explicitly include the dynamics of the fungicide itself, nor do they consider the impact of infection occurring during the host growth phase. We introduce a modelling framework for fungicide application that allows us to consider how "explicit" modelling of fungicide dynamics affects the invasion and persistence of plant pathogens. Specifically, we show that "explicit" models exhibit bistability zones for values of the basic reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) less than one within which the invasion and persistence threshold depends on the initial infection levels. This is in contrast to classical models where invasion and persistence thresholds are solely dependent on [Formula: see text]. In addition if initial infection occurs during the growth phase then an additional "invasion zone" can exist for even smaller values of [Formula: see text]. Within this region the system will experience an epidemic that is not able to persist. We further show that ideal fungicides with high levels of effectiveness, low rates of application and low rates of decay lead to the existence of these bistability zones. The results are robust to the inclusion of demographic stochasticity.