Dealing with stochastic environmental variation in space and time: bet hedging by generalist,specialist, and diversified strategies

Building on previous work, we derive an optimization model for a two-state stochastic environment and evaluate the fitnesses of five reproductive strategies across generations. To do this, we characterize spatiotemporal variation and define grain (=patch) size as the scale of fitness autocorrelation. Fitness functions of environmental condition are Gaussian. The strategies include two specialists on each of the environmental conditions; two generalists that each fare equally well under both conditions, but one (a conservative bet hedger) optimizes the shape of the fitness function; and a diversified bet hedger producing an optimal mix of the two specialists within individual broods. When the environment is primarily in one of the two states, the specialist on that state achieves the highest fitness. In the more interesting situation where the two environments are equally prevalent in the long term, with low-moderate environmental variation, a generalist strategy (that copes with both states well) does best. Higher variation favors diversified bet hedgers, or surprisingly, specialists, depending mainly on whether spatial or temporal variation predominates. These strategies reduce variance in fitness and optimize the distribution of offspring among patches differently: specialists by spreading offspring among many independently varying patches, while diversified bet hedgers put all offspring into a few patches or a single patch. We distinguish features consistent with strategies like diversified bet hedgers that spread risk in time from features linked to strategies like specialists that spread risk in space. Finally, we present testable hypotheses arising from this study and suggest directions for future work.     

Reproductive Allocation in Three Macrophyte Species from Different Lakes with Variable Eutrophic Conditions

Reproductive allocation is a key process in the plant life cycle and aquatic plants exhibit great diversity in their reproductive systems. In the present study, we conduct a field investigation of three aquatic macrophytes: Stuckenia pectinata, Myriophyllum spicatum, and Potamogeton perfoliatus. Our results showed that widespread species, including S. pectinata and M. spicatum had greater plasticity in their allocation patterns in the form of increased sexual and asexual reproduction, and greater potential to set seeds and increase fitness in more eutrophic environments. P. perfoliatus also exhibited a capacity to adopt varied sexual reproductive strategies such as setting more offspring for the future, although only in clear conditions with low nutrient levels. Our results establish strategies and mechanisms of some species for tolerating and surviving in varied eutrophic lake conditions.     

Oceanic Distribution,Behaviour, and a Winter Aggregation Area of Adult Atlantic Sturgeon,Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus,in the Bay of Fundy,Canada

Seasonal distribution of adult Atlantic sturgeon was examined using pop-up satellite archival tags (PSATs) and ultrasonic transmitters deployed in the Saint John River, New Brunswick, Canada. Seven MK10 PSATs programmed for release in June 2012 and seven MiniPAT PSATs programmed for release in February and April 2013 were deployed in August 2011 and 2012, respectively. Eleven of 14 PSATs surfaced and transmitted depth and temperature data archived for the duration of their deployment (121–302 days). Among these eleven PSATs, five were recovered and 15-sec archival data was downloaded. Following exit from the Saint John River in the fall, tagged fish occupied a mean monthly depth of 76.3–81.6 m at temperatures as low as 4.9˚C throughout the winter before returning to shallower areas in the spring. The majority of ultrasonic detections occurred in the Bay of Fundy, but fish were detected as far as Riviere Saint-Jean, Quebec, approximately 1500 km from the Bay of Fundy (representing long-distance migratory rates of up to 44 km/day). All PSATs were first detected in the Bay of Fundy. Tags that released in February and April were found 5–21 km offshore of the Saint John Harbour, while tags that released in June were first detected in near shore areas throughout the Bay of Fundy. The substrate at winter tag release locations (estimated from backward numerical particle-tracking experiments) consisted primarily of moraines and postglacial mud substrate with low backscatter strength, indicative of soft or smooth seabed. Based on the proximity of winter tag release locations, the consistent depths observed between fish, and previous research, it is suspected that a winter aggregation exists in the Bay of Fundy. This study expands the understanding of the marine distribution and range of Atlantic sturgeon on the east coast of Canada.     

Willingness to Act upon Beliefs about ‘Treatment as Prevention’ among Australian Gay and Bisexual Men

HIV ‘treatment as prevention’ (TasP) is highly effective in reducing HIV transmission in serodiscordant couples. There has been little examination of gay and bisexual men’s attitudes towards TasP, particularly regarding men’s willingness to act on beliefs about TasP. We conducted an online cross-sectional survey of Australian men in late 2012 to investigate knowledge and beliefs about new developments in HIV prevention. Amongst 839 men (mean age 39.5 years), men tended to disagree that TasP was sufficiently effective to justify reduced condom use, although HIV-positive men had more favourable attitudes. Only a minority of men were aware of any evidence for TasP; and one-quarter incorrectly believed that evidence for the effectiveness of TasP already existed for the homosexual population. One-fifth (20.5%) of men reported that they would be willing to have condomless anal intercourse with an opposite-status sexual partner when the HIV-positive partner was taking HIV treatments. Factors independently associated with such willingness were: HIV-positive serostatus, reporting any serodiscordant or serononconcordant condomless anal intercourse with a regular male partner in the previous six months, reporting any condomless anal intercourse with a casual male partner in the previous six months, and having greater beliefs in the effectiveness of TasP. This indicated that the men most willing to rely on TasP to prevent transmission were already engaging in higher risk practices. Biomedical HIV prevention represents a rapidly changing environment with new research as well as community and policy responses emerging at a fast pace. For men with serodiscordant sexual partners to successfully apply TasP to reducing transmission risk, more support and education is needed to enable better utilisation of TasP in specific relational and sexual contexts.     

Testing Rare-Variant Association without Calling Genotypes Allows for Systematic Differences in Sequencing between Cases and Controls

Next-generation sequencing of DNA provides an unprecedented opportunity to discover rare genetic variants associated with complex diseases and traits. However, the common practice of first calling underlying genotypes and then treating the called values as known is prone to false positive findings, especially when genotyping errors are systematically different between cases and controls. This happens whenever cases and controls are sequenced at different depths, on different platforms, or in different batches. In this article, we provide a likelihood-based approach to testing rare variant associations that directly models sequencing reads without calling genotypes. We consider the (weighted) burden test statistic, which is the (weighted) sum of the score statistic for assessing effects of individual variants on the trait of interest. Because variant locations are unknown, we develop a simple, computationally efficient screening algorithm to estimate the loci that are variants. Because our burden statistic may not have mean zero after screening, we develop a novel bootstrap procedure for assessing the significance of the burden statistic. We demonstrate through extensive simulation studies that the proposed tests are robust to a wide range of differential sequencing qualities between cases and controls, and are at least as powerful as the standard genotype calling approach when the latter controls type I error. An application to the UK10K data reveals novel rare variants in gene BTBD18 associated with childhood onset obesity. The relevant software is freely available.     

Barn owls (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Tyto alba</Emphasis>) in western North America: phylogeographic structure,connectivity, and genetic diversity

The barn owl (Tyto alba) is a non-migratory species widely distributed across much of North America in areas with extensive old-field and grassland habitat and without extensive winter snow cover. We investigated the genetic diversity and phylogeographic patterns of barn owl populations in western North America, ranging from British Columbia (BC) to southern California, and one eastern population from Pennsylvania. We also determined the genetic distinctiveness of a population off the coast of southern California, Santa Barbara Island, as management plans to control the local owl population are being considered to decrease predation rate on the now threatened Scripps’s Murrelet (Synthliboramphus scrippsi). Using 8 polymorphic microsatellite markers (N = 126) and ND2 mitochondrial sequences (N = 37), we found little to no genetic structure among all sampled regions, with the exception of Santa Barbara Island. The BC mainland population, despite its northwestern geographically peripheral location and ongoing habitat degradation, is not genetically depauperate. However, individuals from Vancouver Island, likewise a peripheral population in BC, exhibited the lowest genetic diversity of all sampled locations. The low global F_ST value (0.028) estimated from our study suggests that old-field agricultural habitats are well connected in North America. Since the BC population has declined by about 50 % within the last three decades, it is vital to focus on preserving the remaining barn owl habitats in BC to allow successful establishment from neighbouring populations. Additionally, our microsatellite data revealed that the population on Santa Barbara Island showed genetic divergence from its continental counterpart. Mitochondrial data, however, demonstrated that this island population is not a monophyletic lineage containing unique haplotypes, and hence cannot be designated as an Evolutionarily Significant Unit.     

Quantifying Transmission Investment in Malaria Parasites

Many microparasites infect new hosts with specialized life stages, requiring a subset of the parasite population to forgo proliferation and develop into transmission forms. Transmission stage production influences infectivity, host exploitation, and the impact of medical interventions like drug treatment. Predicting how parasites will respond to public health efforts on both epidemiological and evolutionary timescales requires understanding transmission strategies. These strategies can rarely be observed directly and must typically be inferred from infection dynamics. Using malaria as a case study, we test previously described methods for inferring transmission stage investment against simulated data generated with a model of within-host infection dynamics, where the true transmission investment is known. We show that existing methods are inadequate and potentially very misleading. The key difficulty lies in separating transmission stages produced by different generations of parasites. We develop a new approach that performs much better on simulated data. Applying this approach to real data from mice infected with a single Plasmodium chabaudi strain, we estimate that transmission investment varies from zero to 20%, with evidence for variable investment over time in some hosts, but not others. These patterns suggest that, even in experimental infections where host genetics and other environmental factors are controlled, parasites may exhibit remarkably different patterns of transmission investment.     

Control of βAR- and N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) Receptor-Dependent cAMP Dynamics in Hippocampal Neurons

Norepinephrine, a neuromodulator that activates β-adrenergic receptors (βARs), facilitates learning and memory as well as the induction of synaptic plasticity in the hippocampus. Several forms of long-term potentiation (LTP) at the Schaffer collateral CA1 synapse require stimulation of both βARs and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors (NMDARs). To understand the mechanisms mediating the interactions between βAR and NMDAR signaling pathways, we combined FRET imaging of cAMP in hippocampal neuron cultures with spatial mechanistic modeling of signaling pathways in the CA1 pyramidal neuron. Previous work implied that cAMP is synergistically produced in the presence of the βAR agonist isoproterenol and intracellular calcium. In contrast, we show that when application of isoproterenol precedes application of NMDA by several minutes, as is typical of βAR-facilitated LTP experiments, the average amplitude of the cAMP response to NMDA is attenuated compared with the response to NMDA alone. Models simulations suggest that, although the negative feedback loop formed by cAMP, cAMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA), and type 4 phosphodiesterase may be involved in attenuating the cAMP response to NMDA, it is insufficient to explain the range of experimental observations. Instead, attenuation of the cAMP response requires mechanisms upstream of adenylyl cyclase. Our model demonstrates that Gs-to-Gi switching due to PKA phosphorylation of βARs as well as Gi inhibition of type 1 adenylyl cyclase may underlie the experimental observations. This suggests that signaling by β-adrenergic receptors depends on temporal pattern of stimulation, and that switching may represent a novel mechanism for recruiting kinases involved in synaptic plasticity and memory.     

Detecting Dysglycemia Using the 2015 United States Preventive Services Task Force Screening Criteria: A Cohort Analysis of Community Health Center Patients

BackgroundIn 2015, the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended targeted screening for prediabetes and diabetes (dysglycemia) in adults who are aged 40 to 70 y old and overweight or obese. Given increasing prevalence of dysglycemia at younger ages and lower body weight, particularly among racial/ethnic minorities, we sought to determine whether the current screening criteria may fail to identify some high-risk population subgroups.ConclusionsTargeted diabetes screening based on new USPSTF criteria may detect approximately half of adult community health center patients with undiagnosed dysglycemia and proportionately fewer racial/ethnic minorities than whites. Future research is needed to estimate the performance of these screening criteria in population-based samples.     

Robust Inference of Cell-to-Cell Expression Variations from Single- and K-Cell Profiling

Quantifying heterogeneity in gene expression among single cells can reveal information inaccessible to cell-population averaged measurements. However, the expression level of many genes in single cells fall below the detection limit of even the most sensitive technologies currently available. One proposed approach to overcome this challenge is to measure random pools of k cells (e.g., 10) to increase sensitivity, followed by computational “deconvolution” of cellular heterogeneity parameters (CHPs), such as the biological variance of single-cell expression levels. Existing approaches infer CHPs using either single-cell or k-cell data alone, and typically within a single population of cells. However, integrating both single- and k-cell data may reap additional benefits, and quantifying differences in CHPs across cell populations or conditions could reveal novel biological information. Here we present a Bayesian approach that can utilize single-cell, k-cell, or both simultaneously to infer CHPs within a single condition or their differences across two conditions. Using simulated as well as experimentally generated single- and k-cell data, we found situations where each data type would offer advantages, but using both together can improve precision and better reconcile CHP information contained in single- and k-cell data. We illustrate the utility of our approach by applying it to jointly generated single- and k-cell data to reveal CHP differences in several key inflammatory genes between resting and inflammatory cytokine-activated human macrophages, delineating differences in the distribution of ‘ON’ versus ‘OFF’ cells and in continuous variation of expression level among cells. Our approach thus offers a practical and robust framework to assess and compare cellular heterogeneity within and across biological conditions using modern multiplexed technologies.