A predictive model for freshwater bioassessment (Mondego River,Portugal)

We sampled macroinvertebrates at 75 locations in the Mondego river catchment, Central Portugal, and developed a predictive model for water quality assessment of this basin, based on the Reference Condition Approach. Sampling was done from June to September 2001. Fifty-five sites were identified as “Reference sites” and 20 sites were used as “Test sites” to test the model. At each site we also measured 40 habitat variables to characterize water physics and chemistry, habitat type, land use, stream hydrology and geographic location. Macroinvertebrates were generally identified to species or genus level; a total of 207 taxa were found. By Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic mean (UPGMA) clustering and analysis of species contribution to similarities percentage (SIMPER), two groups of reference sites were established. Using Discriminant Analysis (stepwise forward), four variables correctly predicted 78% of the reference sites to the appropriate group: stream order, pool quality, substrate quality and current velocity. Test sites’ environmental quality was established from their relative distance to reference sites, in MDS ordination space, using a series of bands (BEAST methodology). The model performed well at upstream sites, but at downstream sites it was compromised by the lack of reference sites. As with the English RIVPACS predictive model, the Mondego model should be continually improved with the addition of new reference sites. The adaptation of the Mondego model methodology to the Water Framework Directive is possible and would consist mainly of the integration of the WFD typology and increasing the number of ellipses that define quality bands. Handling editor: K. Martens     

Impact of the Arundo scale Rhizaspidiotus donacis (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) on the weight of Arundo donax (Poaceae: Arundinoideae) rhizomes in Languedoc southern France and Mediterranean Spain

Arundo donax L. (Poaceae) is native to Mediterranean Europe and invasive in the Rio Grande Basin of North America. Rhizomes from nine sites in France and Spain infested with a candidate control agent, the armoured scale Rhizaspidiotus donacis (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) weighed 50% less than those from nine sites without scale.     

Foraging Efficacy of a Larval Parasitoid in a Cotton Patch: Influence of Chemical Cues and Learning

Plant-herbivore chemical signals and behavioral plasticity may enhance parasitoid host-foraging efficacy in the field; however, no studies have quantified the potential benefits from these factors under field-type conditions. The effect of plant-herbivore signals and learning on the foraging efficacy of Microplitis croceipes was quantified by directly observing and recording total and sequential duration of various foraging behaviors relative to 5 randomly placed herbivore-damaged and host-infested cotton plants and 20 undamaged and non-host-infested plants. Microplitis croceipes spent significantly more time searching (flying and antennation) on host infested versus uninfested plants. Antennation time was significantly and negatively correlated with successive host stings. Contrary to expectations of increased duration, flight time remained constant throughout the foraging bout, which may indicate that there was some learning associated with flight. These results suggest that plant-herbivore chemical signals and learning enhances the foraging efficacy of M. croceipes.     

Wood preservation hygiene and environment in the lime-light of actually

Summary Under the ?Bois plus? scheme, the CTBA is currently developing a third party certification, based on the Scrivener law, with the aim of defending the consumers' interests. At this early stage, wood preservatives and treated wood are checked for the efficacy of treatments in order to ensure the stability and security of works in buildings and civil engineering. According to the different classes of risks in service, ?Bois plus? provides the most adeguate level of protection. In the close future, the industry is planning to incorporate, with the help of the CTBA and experts, health criteria within the frame of the ?Bois plus? certification scheme. The means could beSafety indexes, which are objectives of quality for professionals.Safety indexes are concentrations of substances in wood which can be taken as safe for humans and the general environment, while still toxic for the wood pests. This attractive experience aims to make with the brandname ?Bois plus? a synonym of efficacy and safety. This approach meets the essential requirements 1, 3, 4 of the 89/106 EEC directive: mechanical resistance and stability/hygiene, health and environment/safety in use.     

A gradient of synaptic efficacy and its presynaptic basis in the cercal system of the cockroach

1. The cerci of the cockroach Periplaneta americana bear longitudinal columns of wind-sensitive receptors which provide excitatory inputs to the giant interneurons (GIs) of the abdominal nerve cord. By using sound stimuli, we showed that spikes were more easily induced in the GIs from the most proximal than from the most distal receptors of the same column. 2. This was not due to a greater responsiveness of proximal sensilla to tones but to stronger synaptic connections; for the 3 largest GIs, the amplitude of the monosynaptic unitary EPSP tended to be all the higher as the stimulated sensillum was more proximal in each column. 3. The differences in EPSP size were due, at least partly, to presynaptic factors: a statistical analysis of the amplitude fluctuations of single-fibre EPSPs, showed that the amount of transmitter released per presynaptic impulse was larger for proximal than for distal sensory neurons in each column. 4. These differences in synaptic strength were correlated with differences in the structure of the afferent terminals. The location, the size and the shape of the axonal arbors are nearly the same for all sensory neurons of the same column, but proximal neurons arborize more profusely, and the terminal arbor of distal neurons is generally characterized by dorsal clusters of varicosities. 5. During postembryonic development, a decrease in the connection strength of 2 identified cercal neurons was accompanied by a retraction of ramifications on the medial side of their axonal arbor. 6. Possible mechanisms involved in the genesis and the remodelling of the gradient of synaptic strength are discussed in the light of available data and hypotheses relative to the development of ordered afferent connections.     

棉铃虫病毒杀虫乳悬剂的生产及其药效试验

成功研制出棉铃虫病毒（ＮＰＶ）杀虫乳悬剂,改进了生产工艺和设备,建立了棉铃虫的室内品系,提高了生产效率,建立了产品的检测方法,提高了产品质量,促使棉铃虫病毒杀虫剂商品开发获得成功。大田试验证明,病毒乳悬剂的防治效果,相当于当前推广的化学农药,优于原病毒可湿性粉剂。相同剂量（０．５３一１．０７×１０（１０）ＰＩＢ／公顷）的病毒乳悬剂可使虫口平均减退９１．７％,而病毒可湿性粉剂为８３．７％。     

Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP) for regional yield trials: a comparison to additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) analysis

Multilocation trials are often used to analyse the adaptability of genotypes in different environments and to find for each environment the genotype that is best adapted; i.e. that is highest yielding in that environment. For this purpose, it is of interest to obtain a reliable estimate of the mean yield of a cultivar in a given environment. This article compares two different statistical estimation procedures for this task: the Additive Main Effects and Multiplicative Interaction (AMMI) analysis and Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP). A modification of a cross validation procedure commonly used with AMMI is suggested for trials that are laid out as a randomized complete block design. The use of these procedure is exemplified using five faba bean datasets from German registration trails. BLUP was found to outperform AMMI in four of five faba bean datasets.     

A real-time database/models base/expert system in predictive microbiology

Summary This paper describes the development and operation of a database/models base/expert system funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food in the UK. As part of an on-going coordinated program on predictive microbiology, the system being established involves storage of data and models relevant to changes in populations of food-borne pathogens under given conditions. The system is due to be completed by March 1994.     

Development and use of probability models: The industry perspective

Summary In the processed meat industry, food safety and microbiological shelf life issues lend themselves to the use of probability modeling. Our research concentrated on predicting the effectiveness of sodium lactate as an antibotulinal agent in vacuum packaged, uncured and cured turkey breast model systems. In uncured turkey breast containing 1.4% NaCl, 0.3% Na phosphate, and 0–3% Na lactate, the antibotulinal effect of sodium lactate can be predicted using the following model: Days to toxicity = 3.13+0.39(Na lactate)². Using cured turkey breast with 0.3% Na phosphate, 0.2% sucrose, 0–3% Na lactate, the time to toxicity can be predicted from the following model: Days to toxicity = 1.69+4.88(NaCl)–11.16(Na lactate)+7.23(Na lactate)². Probability models have also been developed to predict the refrigerated shelf life of specific processed meat products. The usefulness of the predictive modeling for food safety and quality in the food industry will also be discussed.This paper was presented at The International Conference on the Application of Predictive Microbiology and Computer Modeling Techniques to the Food Industry, April 12–15 1992, Hyatt Regency Hotel, Tampa, FL, USA.     

尿铜蓝蛋白、肾损伤因子1与糖尿病肾病患者肾功能的关系及对预后不良的预测价值研究

摘要 目的：探讨尿铜蓝蛋白（CP）、肾损伤因子1（KIM-1）与糖尿病肾病（DKD）患者肾功能的关系及对预后不良的预测价值。方法：回顾性分析2017年1月～2019年1月陆军第八十二集团军医院肾内科收治的160例DKD患者（DKD组）的临床资料,随访3年,根据是否发展为终末期肾脏疾病（ESRD）分为预后不良组42例和预后良好组118例,另选取同期56例单纯2型糖尿病（T2DM）患者作为T2DM组和47例体检健康者作为对照组。采用微量法和酶联免疫吸附试验法检测尿CP、KIM-1水平,并计算尿白蛋白/肌酐比值（UACR）和估算肾小球滤过率（eGFR）。通过Spearman相关性分析DKD患者尿CP、KIM-1与UACR、eGFR的相关性,单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析DKD患者预后不良的影响因素,受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线分析尿CP、KIM-1对DKD患者预后不良的预测价值。结果：随访3年,160例DKD患者有42例发展为ESRD,预后不良发生率为26.25％（42/160）。DKD组尿CP、KIM-1、UACR高于T2DM组、对照组,eGFR低于T2DM组、对照组（P＜0.05）;T2DM组尿CP、KIM-1、UACR高于对照组,eGFR低于对照组（P＜0.05）。Spearman相关性分析显示,DKD患者尿CP、KIM-1与UACR呈正相关（P均＜0.001）,与eGFR呈负相关（P均＜0.001）。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,高血压、DKD分期4期和糖化血红蛋白（HbA1c）（较高）、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇（LDL-C）（较高）、UACR（较高）、尿CP（较高）、尿KIM-1（较高）为DKD患者预后不良的独立危险因素（P＜0.05）,eGFR（较高）为独立保护因素（P＜0.05）。ROC曲线分析显示,尿CP、KIM-1联合预测DKD患者预后不良的曲线下面积大于各指标单独预测。结论：DKD患者尿CP、KIM-1升高与肾功能降低和预后不良密切相关,尿CP、KIM-1联合预测DKD患者预后不良的价值较高。