Thermoregulation during cold exposure after several days of exhaustive exercise.

This study examined the hypothesis that several days of exhaustive exercise would impair thermoregulatory effector responses to cold exposure, leading to an accentuated core temperature reduction compared with exposure of the same individual to cold in a rested condition. Thirteen men (10 experimental and 3 control) performed a cold-wet walk (CW) for up to 6 h (6 rest-work cycles, each 1 h in duration) in 5 degrees C air on three occasions. One cycle of CW consisted of 10 min of standing in the rain (5.4 cm/h) followed by 45 min of walking (1.34 m/s, 5.4 m/s wind). Clothing was water saturated at the start of each walking period (0.75 clo vs. 1.1 clo when dry). The initial CW trial (day 0) was performed (afternoon) with subjects rested before initiation of exercise-cold exposure. During the next 7 days, exhaustive exercise (aerobic, anaerobic, resistive) was performed for 4 h each morning. Two subsequent CW trials were performed on the afternoon of days 3 and 7, approximately 2.5 h after cessation of fatiguing exercise. For controls, no exhaustive exercise was performed on any day. Thermoregulatory responses and body temperature during CW were not different on days 0, 3, and 7 in the controls. In the experimental group, mean skin temperature was higher (P < 0.05) during CW on days 3 and 7 than on day 0. Rectal temperature was lower (P < 0.05) and the change in rectal temperature was greater (P < 0.05) during the 6th h of CW on day 3. Metabolic heat production during CW was similar among trials. Warmer skin temperatures during CW after days 3 and 7 indicate that vasoconstrictor responses to cold, but not shivering responses, are impaired after multiple days of severe physical exertion. These findings suggest that susceptibility to hypothermia is increased by exertional fatigue.     

Thermoregulation during cold exposure: effects of prior exercise.

This study examined whether acute exercise would impair the body's capability to maintain thermal balance during a subsequent cold exposure. Ten men rested for 2 h during a standardized cold-air test (4.6 degrees C) after two treatments: 1) 60 min of cycle exercise (Ex) at 55% peak O(2) uptake and 2) passive heating (Heat). Ex was performed during a 35 degrees C water immersion (WI), and Heat was conducted during a 38.2 degrees C WI. The duration of Heat was individually adjusted (mean = 53 min) so that rectal temperature was similar at the end of WI in both Ex (38.2 degrees C) and Heat (38.1 degrees C). During the cold-air test after Ex, relative to Heat 1) rectal temperature was lower (P < 0.05) from minutes 40-120, 2) mean weighted heat flow was higher (P < 0.05), 3) insulation was lower (P < 0.05), and 4) metabolic heat production was not different. These results suggest that prior physical exercise may predispose a person to greater heat loss and to experience a larger decline in core temperature when subsequently exposed to cold air. The combination of exercise intensity and duration studied in these experiments did not fatigue the shivering response to cold exposure.     

Differential heating of trunk and extremities. Effects on thermoregulation mechanisms

Experiments in which the whole human body was heated or cooled are compared with others in which one extremity (arm or leg) was simultaneously cooled or heated. With a warm load on the rest of the body resulting in general sweating, a cold load on one extremity did not evoke local shivering; with general body cooling, heating one limb did not stop the shivering. Skin temperatures of the other parts of the body were not influenced by warming or cooling one extremity. Evaporative heat loss was influenced by local, mean skin and core temperature, whereas shivering did not depend on local temperature, and vasomotor control seemed to be controlled predominantly by central temperatures. A cold load on an extremity during whole body heating in most cases induced an oscillatory behaviour of core temperature and of the evaporative heat loss from the body and the extremity. It is assumed that local, mean skin and core temperatures influence the three autonomous effector systems to very different degree.     

Heat balance precedes stabilization of body temperatures during cold water immersion.

Certain previous studies suggest, as hypothesized herein, that heat balance (i.e., when heat loss is matched by heat production) is attained before stabilization of body temperatures during cold exposure. This phenomenon is explained through a theoretical analysis of heat distribution in the body applied to an experiment involving cold water immersion. Six healthy and fit men (mean +/- SD of age = 37.5 +/- 6.5 yr, height = 1.79 +/- 0.07 m, mass = 81.8 +/- 9.5 kg, body fat = 17.3 +/- 4.2%, maximal O2 uptake = 46.9 +/- 5.5 l/min) were immersed in water ranging from 16.4 to 24.1 degrees C for up to 10 h. Core temperature (Tco) underwent an insignificant transient rise during the first hour of immersion, then declined steadily for several hours, although no subject's Tco reached 35 degrees C. Despite the continued decrease in Tco, shivering had reached a steady state of approximately 2 x resting metabolism. Heat debt peaked at 932 +/- 334 kJ after 2 h of immersion, indicating the attainment of heat balance, but unexpectedly proceeded to decline at approximately 48 kJ/h, indicating a recovery of mean body temperature. These observations were rationalized by introducing a third compartment of the body, comprising fat, connective tissue, muscle, and bone, between the core (viscera and vessels) and skin. Temperature change in this "mid region" can account for the incongruity between the body's heat debt and the changes in only the core and skin temperatures. The mid region temperature decreased by 3.7 +/- 1.1 degrees C at maximal heat debt and increased slowly thereafter. The reversal in heat debt might help explain why shivering drive failed to respond to a continued decrease in Tco, as shivering drive might be modulated by changes in body heat content.     

Human thermoregulatory responses during prolonged walking in water at 25, 30 and 35°C

Eight healthy and physically well-trained male students exercised on a treadmill for 60 min while being immersed in water to the middle of the chest in a laboratory flowmill. The water velocity was adjusted so that the intensity of exercise correspond to 50% maximal oxygen uptake of each subject, and experiments were performed once at each of three water temperatures: 25, 30, 35°C, following a 30-min control period in air at 25°C, and on a treadmill in air at an ambient temperature of 25°C. Thermal states during rest and exercise were determined by measuring rectal and skin temperatures at various points, and mean skin temperatures were calculated. The intensity of exercise was monitored by measuring oxygen consumption, and heart rate was monitored as an indicator for cardiovascular function. At each water temperature, identical oxygen consumption levels were attained during exercise, indicating that no extra heat was produced by shivering at the lowest water temperature. The slight rise in rectal temperature during exercise was not influenced by the water temperature. The temperatures of skin exposed to air rose slightly during exercise at 25°C and 30°C water temperature and markedly at 35°C. The loss of body mass increased with water temperature indicating that both skin blood flow and sweating during exercise increased with the rise in water temperature. The rise in body temperature provided the thermoregulatory drive for the loss of the heat generated during exercise. Heart rate increased most during exercise in water at 35°C, most likely due to enhanced requirements for skin blood flow. Although such requirements were certainly smallest at 25°C water temperature, heart rate at this temperature was slightly higher than at 30°C suggesting reflex activation of sympathetic control by cold signals from the skin. There was a significantly greater increase in mean skin and rectal temperatures in subjects exercising on the treadmill in air, compared to those exercising in water at 25°C. Accepted: 22 May 1998     

Effects of passive heat adaptation and moderate sweatless conditioning on responses to cold and heat

Two series of experiments were performed in physically untrained subjects. In series A (heat adaptation, HA), seven male subjects were adapted to dry heat (five consecutive days at 55 degrees C ambient air temperature (Ta) for 1 h X day-1) under resting conditions. Before and after HA, the subjects' shivering responses were determined in a cold test (Ta + 10 to 0 degrees C). In series B, eight male subjects underwent mild exercise training (five consecutive days at a heart rate, HR, of 120 b X min-1) under Ta conditions individually adjusted (Ta + 15 to +5 degrees C) to prevent both sweating and cold sensations. Before and after "sweatless training", the subjects were subjected to a combined cold and heat test. During HA the thresholds for shivering, cutaneous vasodilatation (thumb and forearm) and sweating were shifted significantly (p less than 0.05) towards lower mean body temperatures (Tb). The mean decrease in threshold Tb was 0.36 degrees C. "Sweatless training" resulted in a mean increase in work rate (at HR 120 b X min-1) and oxygen pulse of 13 and 8%, respectively. However, "sweatless training" did not change the threshold Tb for shivering or sweating. Neither HA nor "sweatless training" changed the slopes of the relationships of shivering and sweating to Tb. It is concluded that the previously reported lowering of shivering and sweating threshold Tb in long-distance runners is not due to an increased fitness level, but is essentially identical with HA. The decreased shivering threshold following HA is interpreted as "cross adaptation" produced by the stressors cold and heat.     

Photoperiod and thermoregulation in vertebrates: body temperature rhythms and thermogenic acclimation

Evidence has recently begun to accumulate that photoperiodic responses of mammals and birds may affect the control of energy balance and thermoregulation. Exposure to short photoperiod can lower the set point for body temperature regulation in birds and mammals, as well as the voluntarily selected body temperature in ectothermic lizards. This decrease is accompanied by a reorganization of circadian or ultradian rhythms of body temperature, particularly an increase in periods spent at rest with minimum body temperatures. Short photoperiod is also used as an environmental cue for induction of seasonal torpor or facilitation of hibernation. During winter, cold tolerance of small mammals is improved by an increase of nonshivering thermogenesis in brown fat. Thermogenic capacity of brown fat (respiratory enzymes, mitochondria, uncoupling protein) is enhanced in response to short photoperiod. This response is mediated via an increase in the activity of sympathetic innervation in brown fat. Moreover, an exposure to short photoperiod prior to low temperatures may act in preparing brown fat for facilitated thermogenesis during acclimation to cold. This shows that photoperiodic control not only affects energy balance indirectly via the control of reproduction or body mass, but may directly interact with central control of thermoregulation and may influence the process of acclimatization.     

Shivering onset, metabolic response, and convective heat transfer during cold air exposure

The onset and intensity of shivering of various muscles during cold air exposure are quantified and related to increases in metabolic rate and convective heat loss. Thirteen male subjects resting in a supine position and wearing only shorts were exposed to 10 degrees C air (42% relative humidity and less than 0.4 m/s airflow) for 2 h. Measurements included surface electromyogram recordings at six muscle sites representing the trunk and limb regions of one side of the body, temperatures and heat fluxes at the same contralateral sites, and metabolic rate. The subjects were grouped according to lean (LEAN, n = 6) and average body fat (NORM, n = 7) content. While the rectal temperatures fluctuated slightly but not significantly during exposure, the skin temperature decreased greatly, more at the limb sites than at the trunk sites. Muscles of the trunk region began to shiver sooner and at a higher intensity than those of the limbs. The intensity of shivering and its increase over time of exposure were consistent with the increase in the convective heat transfer coefficient calculated from skin temperatures and heat fluxes. Both the onset of shivering and the magnitude of the increase in metabolic rate due to shivering were higher for the LEAN group than for the NORM group. A regression analysis indicates that, for a given decrease in mean skin temperature, the increase in metabolic rate due to shivering is attenuated by the square root of percent body fat. Thus the LEAN group shivered at higher intensity, resulting in higher increases in metabolic heat production and convective heat loss during cold air exposure than did the NORM group.     

Shivering in the cold: from mechanisms of fuel selection to survival.

In cold-exposed adult humans, significant or lethal decreases in body temperature are delayed by reducing heat loss via peripheral vasoconstriction and by increasing rates of heat production via shivering thermogenesis. This brief review focuses on the mechanisms of fuel selection responsible for sustaining long-term shivering thermogenesis. It provides evidence to explain large discrepancies in fuel selection measurements among shivering studies, and it proposes links between choices in fuel selection mechanism and human survival in the cold. Over the last decades, a number of studies have quantified the contributions of carbohydrate (CHO) and lipid to total heat generation. However, the exact contributions of these fuels still remain unclear because of large differences in fuel selection measurements even at the same metabolic rate. Recent advances on the mechanisms of fuel selection during shivering provide some plausible explanations for these discrepancies between shivering studies. This new evidence indicates that muscles can sustain shivering over several hours using a variety of fuel mixtures achieved by modifying diet (changing the size of CHO reserves) or by changing muscle fiber recruitment (increasing or decreasing the recruitment of type II fibers). From a practical perspective, how does the choice of fuel selection mechanism affect human survival in the cold? Based on a glycogen-depletion model, estimates of shivering endurance show that, whereas the oxidation of widely different fuel mixtures does not improve survival time, the selective recruitment of fuel-specific muscle fibers provides a substantial advantage for cold survival. By combining fundamental research on fuel metabolism and applied strategies to improve shivering endurance, future research in this area promises to yield important new information on what limits human survival in the cold.     

Effect of rapid and slow cooling on thermoregulatory responses in hypertensive and normotensive rats after calcium administration

The effect of iontophoretic administration of calcium ions to skin in the area of cold stimulus application on the thermal thresholds and the magnitude of cold defense responses in normotensive Wistar and hypertensive ISIAH rats was studied. In thermoneutral conditions, administration of calciumions wos without effect on the measured thermoregulatory parameters. Under the effect of calcium, the thresholds of all the thermoregulatory responses to cooling (such as heat loss, oxygen consumption, shivering) are lowered and the values of heat loss and shivering thermogenesis are considerably increased. The effects of calcium on thermoregulatory responses depend on the rate of cooling. All changes are more expressive in hypertensive rats. The increased sensitivity of hypertensives to calcium suggests that change in their calcium metabolism may be a cause of the observed shifts in the thermoregulatory response to cold.     

Modulating effect of calcium on the cold defense response formation in normotensive and hypertensive rats

The effect of iontophoretic administration of calcium ions to skin in the area of cold stimulus application on the thermal thresholds and the magnitude of cold defense responses in normotensive Wistar and hypertensive inherited stress-induced arterial hypertensive rats was studied.In thermoneutral conditions, administration of calcium ions was without effect on the measured thermoregulatory parameters.Under the effect of calcium, the thresholds of all the thermoregulatory responses to rapid cooling (such as heat loss, oxygen consumption, shivering) are lowered and the values of heat loss and shivering thermogenesis are considerably increased. All changes are more expressive in hypertensive rats.The increased sensitivity of hypertensives to calcium suggests that change in their calcium metabolism may be a cause of the observed shifts in the thermoregulatory response to cold.     

Metabolic effects of exposure to hypoxia plus cold at rest and during exercise in humans

To determine effects on metabolic responses, subjects were exposed to four environmental conditions for 90 min at rest followed by 30 min of exercise: breathing room air with an ambient temperature of 25 degrees C (NN); breathing room air with an ambient temperature of 8 degrees C (NC); hypoxia (induced by breathing 12% O2 in N2) with a neutral temperature (HN); and hypoxia in the cold (HC). Hypoxia increased heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), pulmonary ventilation (VE), respiratory exchange ratio (R), blood lactate, and perceived exertion during exercise while depressing rectal temperature (Tre) and O2 uptake (VO2). Cold exposure elevated SBP, diastolic blood pressure (DBP), VE, VO2, blood glucose, and blood glycerol but decreased HR, Tre, and R. Shivering and DBP were higher and Tre was lower in HC compared with NC. HR, SBP, VE, R, and lactate tended to be higher in HC compared with NC, whereas VO2 and blood glycerol tended to be depressed. These results suggest that cold exposure during hypoxia results in an increased reliance on shivering for thermogenesis at rest whereas, during exercise, heat loss is accelerated.     

Heat debt as an index for cold adaptation in men

Several types of cold adaptation in men have been described in the literature (metabolic, insulative, hypothermic). The aim of this study is to show that the decrease of heat debt can be considered as a new index for cold adaptation. Ten male subjects were acclimated by water immersions (temperature 10-15 degrees C, 4 immersions/wk over 2 mo). Thermoregulatory responses before and after acclimation were tested by a standard cold test in a climatic chamber for 2 h at rest [dry bulb temperature (Tdb): 10 degrees C; relative humidity (rh): 25%]. After adaptation, four thermoregulatory modifications were observed: an increase in the delay for the onset of shivering (32.7 +/- 7.99 instead of 14.1 +/- 5.25 min); a decrease of body temperature levels for the onset of shivering [rectal temperature (Tre): 37.06 +/- 0.08 instead of 37.31 +/- 0.06 degrees C; mean skin temperature (Tsk): 24.83 +/- 0.56 instead of 26.86 +/- 0.46 degrees C; mean body temperature (Tb): 33.03 +/- 0.20 instead of 34.16 +/- 0.37 degrees C); a lower level of body temperatures in thermoneutrality (Tre = 37.16 +/- 0.08 instead of 37.39 +/- 0.06 degrees C; Tsk = 31.29 +/- 0.21 instead of 32.01 +/- 0.22 degrees C; Tb = 35.92 +/- 0.08 instead of 36.22 +/- 0.05 degrees C); a decrease of heat debt calculated from the difference between heat gains and heat losses (5.66 +/- 0.08 instead of 8.33 +/- 0.38 kJ/kg). The different types of cold adaptation observed are related to the physical characteristics of the subjects (percent body fat content) and the level of physical fitness (VO2max).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Computer prediction of human thermoregulatory and temperature responses to a wide range of environmental conditions

A mathematical model for predicting human thermal and regulatory responses in cold, cool, neutral, warm, and hot environments has been developed and validated. The multi-segmental passive system, which models the dynamic heat transport within the body and the heat exchange between body parts and the environment, is discussed elsewhere. This paper is concerned with the development of the active system, which simulates the regulatory responses of shivering, sweating, and peripheral vasomotion of unacclimatised subjects. Following a comprehensive literature review, 26 independent experiments were selected that were designed to provoke each of these responses in different circumstances. Regression analysis revealed that skin and head core temperature affect regulatory responses in a non-linear fashion. A further signal, i.e. the rate of change of the mean skin temperature weighted by the skin temperature error signal, was identified as governing the dynamics of thermoregulatory processes in the cold. Verification and validation work was carried out using experimental data obtained from 90 exposures covering a range of steady and transient ambient temperatures between 5°C and 50°C and exercise intensities between 46 W/m² and 600 W/m². Good general agreement with measured data was obtained for regulatory responses, internal temperatures, and the mean and local skin temperatures of unacclimatised humans for the whole spectrum of climatic conditions and for different activity levels. Received: 20 November 2000 / Revised: 24 April 2001 / Accepted: 14 May 2001     

Prediction of the thermoregulatory response for clothed immersion in cold water

A multi-compartmental thermoregulatory model was applied to data of ten resting clothed males immersed for 3 h in water at 10 and 15 degrees C. Clothing consisted of a dry suit and either a light or heavy undergarment, representing a total insulation of 0.15 (0.95) or 0.20 m2 degrees CW-1 (1.28 clo), respectively. Data were grouped according to low (less than 14%) and high (14 to 24%) body fat individuals. Mean decreases in rectal temperature ranged from 0.79 to 1.38 degrees C, mean decreases in the mean weighted skin temperature ranged from 6.3 to 10.2 degrees C, and mean increases in the metabolic rate ranged from 33.9 to 80.8 W. The model consists of eight segments, each representing a specific region of the body. Each segment is comprised of compartments representing the core, muscle, fat, skin, and clothing. Each compartment is assigned thermophysical values of heat conduction and heat capacitance, and with the exception of clothing, physiological values of blood flow and metabolic heat production. During cold exposure, responses are directed towards increased heat production in the form of shivering and heat conservation in the form of vasoconstriction and convective heat exchange at the vascular level. Agreement between the model predictions and the experimental observations was obtained by adjusting the parameters governing these responses.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Effect of cold air inhalation on core temperature in exercising subjects under heat stress

Whether increasing respiratory heat loss (RHL) during exercise under heat stress can contain elevation of rectal temperature (Tre) was examined. Eight men cycled twice at 45-50% their maximum work rate until exhaustion at ambient temperature and relative humidity of 38 degrees C and 90-95%, respectively. They inspired either cold (3.6 degrees C) or ambient air in random sequence. When subjects breathed cold air during 23 min of exercise, a ninefold increase in RHL was observed vs. similar work during hot air inhalation (32.81 vs. 3.46 W). Respiratory frequency (f) and rate of rise in Tre decreased significantly (P less than or equal to 0.004 and P less than or equal to 0.002, respectively). The rise in skin temperature in each inhalant gas condition was accompanied by a parallel almost equal increase in core temperature above basal (delta Tre) for equivalent gains in skin temperature. The increase in tidal volume and decreased f in the cold condition allowed more effective physical conditioning of cold inspirate gas in the upper airways and aided RHL. Cold air inhalation also produced a significant (P less than or equal to 0.05) decrease in heart rate vs. hot air inhalation in the final stages of exercise. Insignificant changes in O2 consumption and total body fluid loss were found. These data show that cold air inhalation during exercise diminishes elevation of Tre and suggest that both the intensity and duration of work can thus be extended. The importance of the physical exchange of heat energy and any physiological mechanisms induced by the cold inspirate in producing the changes is undetermined.     

The effect of short-term fasting on shivering thermogenesis in Japanese quail chicks (Coturnix coturnix japonica): indications for a significant role of diet-induced/growth related thermogenesis

(1) The effect of short-term fasting on metabolism and shivering thermogenesis was studied in 9-day-old Japanese quail. (2) After 31 h of fasting, heat production decreased 39% and body temperature over 2°C in the thermoneutral zone. The difference in heat production between control and fasting groups decreased with decreasing ambient temperature. (3) Despite the lower metabolic rate, the amplitudes of shivering EMGs were higher in fasted chicks, especially in pectoralis. This indicates that fasted quails used shivering to compensate the decrease in diet-induced/growth related thermogenesis. (4) In cold, conductance of control birds decreased simultaneously with increasing heat production while in fasted chicks, conductance decreased to its minimum before heat production was activated. (5) Japanese quail chicks adapt quickly to short-term fasting by decreasing metabolism but they maintain their ability to thermoregulate in cold. Diet-induced/growth related thermogenesis has a significant role in thermoregulation since it reduces the need of shivering thermogenesis.     

Effectiveness of three field treatments for induced mild (33.0 degrees C) hypothermia

Three field applicable treatments for hypothermia were compared. Subjects were cooled in stirred cold water (8.0 degrees C) to a core temperature (Tco) as low as 33 degrees C and rewarmed in a random order by each of three techniques: shivering, external heat, and treadmill exercise. Tco was monitored with an esophageal thermistor probe at the level of the heart. Treatment effectiveness was determined by calculating the amount of Tco afterdrop, length of afterdrop period, rate of Tco increase, and total recovery time. Rate of Tco increase for exercise (4.9 degrees C/h) was significantly higher (P less than 0.05) than shivering (3.5 degrees C/h) but not external heat (3.7 degrees C/h). Exercise afterdrop amount and afterdrop length values (0.95 degrees C and 24 min, respectively) were significantly higher (P less than 0.05) than both shivering (0.33 degrees C, 15 min) and external heat (0.32 degrees C, 14 min). Therefore, although rate of Tco increase during recovery for exercise was faster than for shivering or external heat, as it was preceded by a greater afterdrop length and amount, total recovery time did not differ among the three treatments.     

Thermal insulation and body temperature wearing a thermal swimsuit during water immersion

This study evaluated the effects of a thermal swimsuit on body temperatures, thermoregulatory responses and thermal insulation during 60 min water immersion at rest. Ten healthy male subjects wearing either thermal swimsuits or normal swimsuits were immersed in water (26 degrees C or 29 degrees C). Esophageal temperature, skin temperatures and oxygen consumption were measured during the experiments. Metabolic heat production was calculated from oxygen consumption. Heat loss from skin to the water was calculated from the metabolic heat production and the change in mean body temperature during water immersion. Total insulation and tissue insulation were estimated by dividing the temperature difference between the esophagus and the water or the esophagus and the skin with heat loss from the skin. Esophageal temperature with a thermal swimsuit was higher than that with a normal swimsuit at the end of immersion in both water temperature conditions (p<0.05). Oxygen consumption, metabolic heat production and heat loss from the skin were less with the thermal swimsuit than with a normal swimsuit in both water temperatures (p<0.05). Total insulation with the thermal swimsuit was higher than that with a normal swimsuit due to insulation of the suit at both water temperatures (p<0.05). Tissue insulation was similar in all four conditions, but significantly higher with the thermal swimsuit in both water temperature conditions (p<0.05), perhaps due to of the attenuation of shivering during immersion with a thermal swimsuit. A thermal swimsuit can increase total insulation and reduce heat loss from the skin. Therefore, subjects with thermal swimsuits can maintain higher body temperatures than with a normal swimsuit and reduce shivering thermo-genesis.     

Predicting survival time for cold exposure

The prediction of survival time (ST) for cold exposure is speculative as reliable controlled data of deep hypothermia are unavailable. At best, guidance can be obtained from case histories of accidental exposure. This study describes the development of a mathematical model for the prediction of ST under sedentary conditions in the cold. The model is based on steady-state heat conduction in a single cylinder comprised of a core and two concentric annular shells representing the fat plus skin and the clothing plus still boundary layer, respectively. The ambient condition can be either air or water; the distinction is made by assigning different values of insulation to the still boundary layer. Metabolic heat production (M) is comprised of resting and shivering components with the latter predicted by temperature signals from the core and skin. Where the cold exposure is too severe forM to balance heat loss, ST is largely determined by the rate of heat loss from the body. Where a balance occurs, ST is governed by the endurance time for shivering. End of survival is marked by the deep core temperature reaching a value of 30° C. The model was calibrated against survival data of cold water (0 to 20° C) immersion and then applied to cold air exposure. A sampling of ST predictions for the nude exposure of an average healthy male in relatively calm air (1 km/h wind speed) are the following: 1.8, 2.5, 4.1, 9.0, and >24 h for –30, –20, –10, 0, and 10° C, respectively. With two layers of loose clothing (average thickness of 1 mm each) in a 5 km/h wind, STs are 4.0, 5.6, 8.6, 15.4, and >24 h for –50, –40, –30, –20, and –10° C. The predicted STs must be weighted against the extrapolative nature of the model. At present, it would be prudent to use the predictions in a relative sense, that is, to compare or rank-order predicted STs for various combinations of ambient conditions and clothing protection.