Past and future range shifts and loss of diversity in dwarf willow (Salix herbacea L.) inferred from genetics, fossils and modelling

Aim Climate change may cause loss of genetic diversity. Here we explore how a multidisciplinary approach can be used to infer effects of past climate change on species distribution and genetic diversity and also to predict loss of diversity due to future climate change. We use the arctic‐alpine plant Salix herbacea L. as a model. Location Europe, Greenland and eastern North America. Methods We analysed 399 samples from 41 populations for amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) to identify current patterns of genetic structure and diversity and likely historical dispersal routes. Macrofossil records were compiled to infer past distribution, and species distribution models were used to predict the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and future distribution of climatically suitable areas. Results We found strong genetic differentiation between the populations from Europe/East Greenland and those from Canada/West Greenland, indicating a split probably predating the LGM. Much less differentiation was observed among the four genetic groups identified in Europe, and diversity was high in the Scandinavian as well as in southern alpine populations. Continuous distribution in Central Europe during the last glaciation was inferred based on the fossil records and distribution modelling. A 46–57% reduction in suitable areas was predicted in 2080 compared to present. However, mainly southern alpine populations may go extinct, causing a loss of about 5% of the genetic diversity in the species. Main conclusions From a continuous range in Central Europe during the last glaciation, northward colonization probably occurred as a broad front maintaining diversity as the climate warmed. This explains why potential extinction of southern populations by 2080 will cause a comparatively low loss of the genetic diversity in S. herbacea. For other species with different glacial histories, however, the expected climate‐change induced regional extinction may cause a more severe loss of genetic diversity. We conclude that our multidisciplinary approach may be a useful tool for assessing impact of climate change on loss of genetic diversity.     

Pyrenean ptarmigans decline under climatic and human influences through the Holocene

In Europe, the Quaternary is characterized by climatic fluctuations known to have led to many cycles of contraction and expansion of species geographical ranges. In addition, during the Holocene, historical changes in human occupation such as colonization or abandonment of traditional land uses can also affect habitats. These climatically or anthropically induced geographic range changes are expected to produce considerable effective population size change, measurable in terms of genetic diversity and organization. The rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) is a small-bodied grouse occurring throughout Northern hemispheric arctic and alpine tundra. This species is not considered threatened at a continental scale, but the populations in the Pyrenees are of concern because of their small population size, geographical isolation and low genetic diversity. Here, we used 11 microsatellites to investigate genetic variations and differentiations and infer the overall demographic history of Pyrenean rock ptarmigan populations. The low genetic variability found in these populations has been previously thought to be the result of a bottleneck that occurred following the last glacial maximum (i.e., 10 000 years ago) or more recently (i.e., during the last 200 years). Our results clearly indicate a major bottleneck affecting the populations in the last tenth of the Holocene. We discuss how this decline can be explained by a combination of unfavorable and successive events that increased the degree of habitat fragmentation.     

Copse snail Arianta arbustorum (Linnaeus, 1758) (Gastropoda: Helicidae) in the Baltic Sea region: Invasion or range extension? Insights from phylogeographic analysis and climate niche modeling

The range of Arianta arbustorum is spreading eastwards across the Baltic Sea region. Because A. arbustorum is a common pest in agriculture and horticulture, understanding the origin and factors involved in the eastward range expansion of the land snail are important for future planning of species management. In the present study, we compared the genetic diversity of A. arbustorum in the recently established easternmost populations and across Europe using standard phylogeographic analyses on a mitochondrial marker (cytochrome c oxidase I). We also applied bioclimatic envelope modeling to determine the environmental factors responsible for the ongoing range shifts of A. arbustorum. The unique haplotype lineage was found in all Baltic Sea populations in contrast with the highly polymorphic populations from Central Europe and the Alps. The peripheral easternmost populations were fixed for the dominant haplotype of the Baltic lineage. Retrospective niche modeling confirmed previous assumptions of multiple glacial refugia of A. arbustorum in Europe. Our results also show that the emergence of new populations in the easternmost part of the A. arbustorum range and the presumptive loss of rear-edge populations in western Europe are most plausibly caused by ongoing climate change, which will have a remarkable effect on the future distribution of genetic diversity within the range of the copse snail.     

Identifying refugia from climate change using coupled ecological and genetic data in a transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree species

Populations occurring in areas of overlap between the current and future distribution of a species are particularly important because they can represent “refugia from climate change”. We coupled ecological and range‐wide genetic variation data to detect such areas and to evaluate the impacts of habitat suitability changes on the genetic diversity of the transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree Fraxinus angustifolia. We sampled and genotyped 38 natural populations comprising 1006 individuals from across Europe. We found the highest genetic diversity in western and northern Mediterranean populations, as well as a significant west to east decline in genetic diversity. Areas of potential refugia that correspond to approximately 70% of the suitable habitat may support the persistence of more than 90% of the total number of alleles in the future. Moreover, based on correlations between Bayesian genetic assignment and climate, climate change may favour the westward spread of the Black Sea gene pool in the long term. Overall, our results suggest that the northerly core areas of the current distribution contain the most important part of the genetic variation for this species and may serve as in situ macrorefugia from ongoing climate change. However, rear‐edge populations of the southern Mediterranean may be exposed to a potential loss of unique genetic diversity owing to habitat suitability changes unless populations can persist in microrefugia that have facilitated such persistence in the past.     

Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions – Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras

Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis) and the functional richness index (FRic). Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning.     

Present,past and future of the European rock fern Asplenium fontanum: combining distribution modelling and population genetics to study the effect of climate change on geographic range and genetic diversity

Background and Aims

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic range of many plant species dramatically. Predicting this response will be critical to managing the conservation of plant resources and the effects of invasive species. The aim of this study was to predict the response of temperate homosporous ferns to climate change.

Methods

Genetic diversity and changes in distribution range were inferred for the diploid rock fern Asplenium fontanum along a South–North transect, extending from its putative last glacial maximum (LGM) refugia in southern France towards southern Germany and eastern-central France. This study reconciles observations from distribution models and phylogeographic analyses derived from plastid and nuclear diversity.

Key Results

Genetic diversity distribution and niche modelling propose that genetic diversity accumulates in the LGM climate refugium in southern France with the formation of a diversity gradient reflecting a slow, post-LGM range expansion towards the current distribution range. Evidence supports the fern''s preference for outcrossing, contradicting the expectation that homosporous ferns would populate new sites by single-spore colonization. Prediction of climate and distribution range change suggests that a dramatic loss of range and genetic diversity in this fern is possible. The observed migration is best described by the phalanx expansion model.

Conclusions

The results suggest that homosporous ferns reproducing preferentially by outcrossing accumulate genetic diversity primarily in LGM climate refugia and may be threatened if these areas disappear due to global climate change.     

Differentiation with drift: a spatio-temporal genetic analysis of Galápagos mockingbird populations (Mimus spp.)

Small and isolated island populations provide ideal systems to study the effects of limited population size, genetic drift and gene flow on genetic diversity. We assessed genetic diversity within and differentiation among 19 mockingbird populations on 15 Galápagos islands, covering all four endemic species, using 16 microsatellite loci. We tested for signs of drift and gene flow, and used historic specimens to assess genetic change over the last century and to estimate effective population sizes. Within-population genetic diversity and effective population sizes varied substantially among island populations and correlated strongly with island size, suggesting that island size serves as a good predictor for effective population size. Genetic differentiation among populations was pronounced and increased with geographical distance. A century of genetic drift did not change genetic diversity on an archipelago-wide scale, but genetic drift led to loss of genetic diversity in small populations, especially in one of the two remaining populations of the endangered Floreana mockingbird. Unlike in other Galápagos bird species such as the Darwin''s finches, gene flow among mockingbird populations was low. The clear pattern of genetically distinct populations reflects the effects of genetic drift and suggests that Galápagos mockingbirds are evolving in relative isolation.     

High migration rates shape the postglacial history of amphi‐Atlantic bryophytes

Paleontological evidence and current patterns of angiosperm species richness suggest that European biota experienced more severe bottlenecks than North American ones during the last glacial maximum. How well this pattern fits other plant species is less clear. Bryophytes offer a unique opportunity to contrast the impact of the last glacial maximum in North America and Europe because about 60% of the European bryoflora is shared with North America. Here, we use population genetic analyses based on approximate Bayesian computation on eight amphi‐Atlantic species to test the hypothesis that North American populations were less impacted by the last glacial maximum, exhibiting higher levels of genetic diversity than European ones and ultimately serving as a refugium for the postglacial recolonization of Europe. In contrast with this hypothesis, the best‐fit demographic model involved similar patterns of population size contractions, comparable levels of genetic diversity and balanced migration rates between European and North American populations. Our results thus suggest that bryophytes have experienced comparable demographic glacial histories on both sides of the Atlantic. Although a weak, but significant genetic structure was systematically recovered between European and North American populations, evidence for migration from and towards both continents suggests that amphi‐Atlantic bryophyte population may function as a metapopulation network. Reconstructing the biogeographic history of either North American or European bryophyte populations therefore requires a large, trans‐Atlantic geographic framework.     

Differentiation in neutral genes and a candidate gene in the pied flycatcher: using biological archives to track global climate change

Global climate change is one of the major driving forces for adaptive shifts in migration and breeding phenology and possibly impacts demographic changes if a species fails to adapt sufficiently. In Western Europe, pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) have insufficiently adapted their breeding phenology to the ongoing advance of food peaks within their breeding area and consequently suffered local population declines. We address the question whether this population decline led to a loss of genetic variation, using two neutral marker sets (mitochondrial control region and microsatellites), and one potentially selectively non‐neutral marker (avian Clock gene). We report temporal changes in genetic diversity in extant populations and biological archives over more than a century, using samples from sites differing in the extent of climate change. Comparing genetic differentiation over this period revealed that only the recent Dutch population, which underwent population declines, showed slightly lower genetic variation than the historic Dutch population. As that loss of variation was only moderate and not observed in all markers, current gene flow across Western and Central European populations might have compensated local loss of variation over the last decades. A comparison of genetic differentiation in neutral loci versus the Clock gene locus provided evidence for stabilizing selection. Furthermore, in all genetic markers, we found a greater genetic differentiation in space than in time. This pattern suggests that local adaptation or historic processes might have a stronger effect on the population structure and genetic variation in the pied flycatcher than recent global climate changes.     

Predicted range shifts in North American boreal forest birds and the effect of climate change on genetic diversity in blackpoll warblers (Setophaga striata)

As North American species’ ranges shift northward in response to climate change, populations isolated in high-elevation habitat “islands” at the southern edge of distributions are predicted to decrease in size or be extirpated. Levels of genetic structure and gene flow and the number of private alleles held within these peripheral populations can be used as a measure of the potential loss of genetic diversity due to climate change. We use GIS-based climate niche models to project geographic distributions of 15 boreal forest bird species for the year 2080 under two carbon emissions scenarios to predict the extent to which ranges will shift, leading to the extirpation of isolated populations at the southern periphery of the boreal forest. Breeding distributions of nearly all boreal bird species are predicted to expand as they shift northward, but will dramatically decrease or be completely lost from mountain populations in New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire by 2080. To examine the effect of these shifts on gene pools of migratory bird species we genotyped 178 blackpoll warblers (Setophaga striata) at nine microsatellite loci, sampling four imperiled high-elevation populations and four northern populations. In S. striata 10.4 % of microsatellite alleles were confined to populations expected to be lost due to climate change. However, these accounted for a nonsignificant percent of the genetic structure, and loss of these alleles would not significantly erode species heterozygosity or allelic richness. Our results indicate that isolated southern populations of S. striata, and possibly other migratory species with high gene flow, do not represent genetically isolated, independently evolving units. Efforts to mitigate the effect of climate change on boreal forest birds should focus on species in which peripheral populations harbor significant genetic diversity.     

Genetic structure,admixture and invasion success in a Holarctic defoliator,the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar,Lepidoptera: Erebidae)

Characterizing the current population structure of potentially invasive species provides a critical context for identifying source populations and for understanding why invasions are successful. Non‐native populations inevitably lose genetic diversity during initial colonization events, but subsequent admixture among independently introduced lineages may increase both genetic variation and adaptive potential. Here we characterize the population structure of the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar Linnaeus), one of the world's most destructive forest pests. Native to Eurasia and recently introduced to North America, the current distribution of gypsy moth includes forests throughout the temperate region of the northern hemisphere. Analyses of microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA sequences for 1738 individuals identified four genetic clusters within L. dispar. Three of these clusters correspond to the three named subspecies; North American populations represent a distinct fourth cluster, presumably a consequence of the population bottleneck and allele frequency change that accompanied introduction. We find no evidence that admixture has been an important catalyst of the successful invasion and range expansion in North America. However, we do find evidence of ongoing hybridization between subspecies and increased genetic variation in gypsy moth populations from Eastern Asia, populations that now pose a threat of further human‐mediated introductions. Finally, we show that current patterns of variation can be explained in terms of climate and habitat changes during the Pleistocene, a time when temperate forests expanded and contracted. Deeply diverged matrilines in Europe imply that gypsy moths have been there for a long time and are not recent arrivals from Asia.     

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling

Background and Aims A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia.Methods Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM).Key Results A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction.Conclusions Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change.     

Species coherence in the face of karyotype diversification in holocentric organisms: the case of a cytogenetically variable sedge (Carex scoparia,Cyperaceae)

Background and Aims

The sedge genus Carex, the most diversified angiosperm genus of the northern temperate zone, is renowned for its holocentric chromosomes and karyotype variability. The genus exhibits high variation in chromosome numbers both among and within species. Despite the possibility that this chromosome evolution may play a role in the high species diversity of Carex, population-level patterns of molecular and cytogenetic differentiation in the genus have not been extensively studied.

Methods

Microsatellite variation (11 loci, 461 individuals) and chromosomal diversity (82 individuals) were investigated in 22 Midwestern populations of the North American sedge Carex scoparia and two Northeastern populations.

Key Results

Among Midwestern populations, geographic distance is the most important predictor of genetic differentiation. Within populations, inbreeding is high and chromosome variation explains a significant component of genetic differentiation. Infrequent dispersal among populations separated by >100 km explains an important component of molecular genetic and cytogenetic diversity within populations. However, karyotype variation and correlation between genetic and chromosomal variation persist within populations even when putative migrants based on genetic data are excluded.

Conclusions

These findings demonstrate dispersal and genetic connectivity among widespread populations that differ in chromosome numbers, explaining the phenomenon of genetic coherence in this karyotypically diverse sedge species. More generally, the study suggests that traditional sedge taxonomic boundaries demarcate good species even when those species encompass a high range of chromosomal diversity. This finding is important evidence as we work to document the limits and drivers of biodiversity in one of the world''s largest angiosperm genera.     

Diverse spore rains and limited local exchange shape fern genetic diversity in a recently created habitat colonized by long-distance dispersal

Background and Aims

Populations established by long-distance colonization are expected to show low levels of genetic variation per population, but strong genetic differentiation among populations. Whether isolated populations indeed show this genetic signature of isolation depends on the amount and diversity of diaspores arriving by long-distance dispersal, and time since colonization. For ferns, however, reliable estimates of long-distance dispersal rates remain largely unknown, and previous studies on fern population genetics often sampled older or non-isolated populations. Young populations in recent, disjunct habitats form a useful study system to improve our understanding of the genetic impact of long-distance dispersal.

Methods

Microsatellite markers were used to analyse the amount and distribution of genetic diversity in young populations of four widespread calcicole ferns (Asplenium scolopendrium, diploid; Asplenium trichomanes subsp. quadrivalens, tetraploid; Polystichum setiferum, diploid; and Polystichum aculeatum, tetraploid), which are rare in The Netherlands but established multiple populations in a forest (the Kuinderbos) on recently reclaimed Dutch polder land following long-distance dispersal. Reference samples from populations throughout Europe were used to assess how much of the existing variation was already present in the Kuinderbos.

Key Results

A large part of the Dutch and European genetic diversity in all four species was already found in the Kuinderbos. This diversity was strongly partitioned among populations. Most populations showed low genetic variation and high inbreeding coefficients, and were assigned to single, unique gene pools in cluster analyses. Evidence for interpopulational gene flow was low, except for the most abundant species.

Conclusions

The results show that all four species, diploids as well as polyploids, were capable of frequent long-distance colonization via single-spore establishment. This indicates that even isolated habitats receive dense and diverse spore rains, including genotypes capable of self-fertilization. Limited gene flow may conserve the genetic signature of multiple long-distance colonization events for several decades.     

Glacial survival may matter after all: nunatak signatures in the rare European populations of two west-arctic species

Biogeographers claimed for more than a century that arctic plants survived glaciations in ice-free refugia within the limits of the North European ice sheets. Molecular studies have, however, provided overwhelming support for postglacial immigration into northern Europe, even from the west across the Atlantic. For the first time we can here present molecular evidence strongly favouring in situ glacial persistence of two species, the rare arctic-alpine pioneer species Sagina caespitosa and Arenaria humifusa. Both belong to the 'west-arctic element' of amphi-Atlantic disjuncts, having their few and only European occurrences well within the limits of the last glaciation. Sequencing of non-coding regions of chloroplast DNA revealed only limited variation. However, two very distinct and partly diverse genetic groups, one East and one West Atlantic, were detected in each species based on amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs), excluding postglacial dispersal from North America as explanation for their European occurrences. Patterns of genetic diversity and distinctiveness indicate that glacial populations existed in East Greenland and/or Svalbard (A. humifusa) and in southern Scandinavia (S. caespitosa). Despite their presumed lack of long-distance dispersal adaptations, intermixed populations in several regions indicate postglacial contact zones. Both species are declining in Nordic countries, probably due to climate change-induced habitat loss. Little or no current connectivity between their highly fragmented and partly distinct populations call for conservation of several populations in each geographic region.     

Genetic diversity assessment of bittersweet (Solanum dulcamara,Solanaceae) germplasm using conserved DNA‐derived polymorphism and intron‐targeting markers

Bittersweet (Solanum dulcamara), a European native weed, is widespread across a variety of habitats and often occurs as a coloniser of open, disturbed, ephemeral environments or wetlands, although it is also found in mountain habitats and on forest edges. As recent studies have shown the potential utility of the species in plant breeding programs, we assembled a collection of bittersweet germplasm from natural populations found in Europe. This collection was analysed with conserved DNA‐derived polymorphism (CDDP) and intron‐targeting (IT) markers to assess genetic diversity found within and among the populations. We found that there is limited genetic variability within the collected S. dulcamara accessions, with a greater proportion of allelic variation distributed among populations and considerably greater population structure at higher regional levels. Although bittersweet is an outcrossing species, its population structure might be affected by its perennial self‐compatible nature, reducing genetic diversity within regional populations and enhancing inbreeding leading to high interpopulation or spatial differentiation. We found that populations have been separated by local selection of alleles, resulting in regional differentiation. This has been accompanied by concurrent loss of genetic diversity within populations, although this process has not affected species‐level genetic diversity. Germplasm collecting strategies should be aimed at preserving overall genetic diversity in bittersweet nightshade by expanding sampling to southern Europe and to smaller regional geographic levels in northern and central Europe.     

Divergent selection along climatic gradients in a rare central European endemic species,Saxifraga sponhemica

Background and Aims The effects of habitat fragmentation on quantitative genetic variation in plant populations are still poorly known. Saxifraga sponhemica is a rare endemic of Central Europe with a disjunct distribution, and a stable and specialized habitat of treeless screes and cliffs. This study therefore used S. sponhemica as a model species to compare quantitative and molecular variation in order to explore (1) the relative importance of drift and selection in shaping the distribution of quantitative genetic variation along climatic gradients; (2) the relationship between plant fitness, quantitative genetic variation, molecular genetic variation and population size; and (3) the relationship between the differentiation of a trait among populations and its evolvability.Methods Genetic variation within and among 22 populations from the whole distribution area of S. sponhemica was studied using RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) markers, and climatic variables were obtained for each site. Seeds were collected from each population and germinated, and seedlings were transplanted into a common garden for determination of variation in plant traits.Key Results In contrast to previous results from rare plant species, strong evidence was found for divergent selection. Most population trait means of S. sponhemica were significantly related to climate gradients, indicating adaptation. Quantitative genetic differentiation increased with geographical distance, even when neutral molecular divergence was controlled for, and Q_ST exceeded F_ST for some traits. The evolvability of traits was negatively correlated with the degree of differentiation among populations (Q_ST), i.e. traits under strong selection showed little genetic variation within populations. The evolutionary potential of a population was not related to its size, the performance of the population or its neutral genetic diversity. However, performance in the common garden was lower for plants from populations with reduced molecular genetic variation, suggesting inbreeding depression due to genetic erosion.Conclusions The findings suggest that studies of molecular and quantitative genetic variation may provide complementary insights important for the conservation of rare species. The strong differentiation of quantitative traits among populations shows that selection can be an important force for structuring variation in evolutionarily important traits even for rare endemic species restricted to very specific habitats.     

Local genetic structure of a montane herb among isolated grassland patches: implications for the preservation of genetic diversity under climate change

Habitat loss, fragmentation of meadow patches, and global climate change (GCC) threaten plant communities of montane grasslands. We analyzed the genetic structure of the montane herb Geranium sylvaticum L. on a local scale in order to understand the effects of habitat fragmentation and potential GCC impacts on genetic diversity and differentiation. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprinting and cpDNA sequencing was performed for 295 individuals of 15 G. sylvaticum populations spanning the entire distribution range of the species in the Taunus mountain range in Germany. We found patterns of substantial genetic differentiation among populations using 150 polymorphic AFLP markers (mean F _ST = 0.105), but no variation in 896 bp of plastid DNA sequences. While populations in the center of their local distribution range were genetically diverse and less differentiated, higher F _ST values and reduced genetic variability was revealed for the populations at the low-altitudinal distribution margins. Projections of GCC effects on the distribution of G. sylvaticum in 2050 showed that GCC will likely lead to the extinction of most edge populations. To maintain regional genetic diversity, conservation efforts should focus on the diverse high-altitude populations, although a potential loss of unique variations in genetically differentiated peripheral populations could lower the overall genetic diversity and potentially the long-term viability in the study region. This study documents the usefulness of fine-scale assessments of genetic population structure in combination with niche modeling to reveal priority regions for the effective long-term conservation of populations and their genetic variation under climate change.     

Mitochondrial DNA variation in the malaria vector Anopheles minimus across China,Thailand and Vietnam: evolutionary hypothesis,population structure and population history

The effects of Pleistocene environmental fluctuations on the distribution and diversity of organisms in Southeast Asia are much less well known than in Europe and North America. In these regions, the combination of palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and inferences about population history from genetic data has been very powerful. In Southeast Asia, mosquitoes are good candidates for the genetic approach, with the added benefit that understanding the relative contributions of historical and current processes to population structure can inform management of vector species. Genetic variation among populations of Anopheles minimus was examined using 144 mtDNA COII sequences from 23 sites in China, Thailand and Vietnam. Haplotype diversity was high, with two distinct lineages that have a sequence divergence of over 2% and exhibit different geographical distributions. We compare alternative hypotheses concerning the origin of this pattern. The observed data deviate from the expectations based on a single-panmictic population with or without growth, or a stable but spatially structured population. However, they can be readily accommodated by a model of past fragmentation into eastern and western refugia, followed by growth and range expansion. This is consistent with the palaeoenvironmental reconstructions currently available for the region.