Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species’ geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland‐southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change and demonstrate the importance of incorporating biogeographical variability into predictive models for an accurate prediction of species dynamics as climate changes.     

Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process‐based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear‐edges

Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought‐prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear‐edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear‐edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree‐ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process‐based Vaganov–Shashkin‐Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO₂ emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear‐edge. By contrast, growth of high‐elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of ?10.7% and ?16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear‐edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear‐edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions.     

Responses to recent climatewarming of Pinus sylvestris and Pinus cembra within their montane transition zone in the Swiss Alps

Abstract. Altitudinal and latitudinal distribution limits of trees are mainly controlled by temperature. Therefore climate warming is expected to induce upslope or poleward migrations. In the Swiss Central Alps, summers in the period 1982-1991 were on average 0.8 °C warmer than those of the period 30 yr before. We investigated whether populations of conifers at the montane Pinus sylvestris-Pinus cembra ecocline exhibit demographic trends in response to that warming. We found no evidence for this. Young seedlings of Pinus sylvestris, the species which is expected to expand its range upward in a warmer climate, were virtually absent from all sites, whereas large fractions of Pinus cembra populations were observed in the seedling and juvenile categories even below the present lower distribution limit of adult trees. This suggests that there are no major altitudinal shifts in response to the recent sequence of warmer summers. Germination and seedling survival trials with Pinus sylvestris suggest that temperature per se would not exclude this species even from establishing at the current treeline in the Swiss Central Alps. Similar results were found at the polar treeline. Phytotron tests of seedling survival showed much less drought resistance in Pinus sylvestris than in Pinus cembra which is in contrast to their phytogeographic distributions. Thus, the montane pine ecocline in the Swiss Central Alps seems to be stabilized by species interactions and may not be directly responsive to moderate climatic change, which needs to be taken into account in predictive attempts.     

Radial growth response to climate change along the latitudinal range of the world's southernmost conifer in southern South America

Aim

We examined whether and how tree radial‐growth responses to climate have changed for the world's southernmost conifer species throughout its latitudinal distribution following rapid climate change in the second half of the 20th century.

Location

Temperate forests in southern South America.

Methods

New and existing tree‐ring radial growth chronologies representing the entire latitudinal range of Pilgerodendron uviferum were grouped according to latitude and then examined for differences in growth trends and non‐stationarity in growth responses to a drought severity index (scPDSI) over the 1900–1993 AD period and also before and after significant shifts in climate in the 1950s and 1970s.

Results

The radial‐growth response of P. uviferum climate was highly variable across its full latitudinal distribution. There was a long‐term and positive association between radial growth and higher moisture at the northern and southern edges of the distribution of this species and the opposite relationship for the core of its distribution, especially following the climatic shifts of the 1950s and 1970s. In addition, non‐stationarity in moisture‐radial growth relationships was observed in all three latitudinal groups (southern and northern edges and core) for all seasons during the 20th century.

Main conclusions

Climate shifts in southern South America in the 1950s and 1970s resulted in different responses in the mean radial growth of P. uviferum at the southern and northern edges and at the core of its range. Dendroclimatic analyses document that during the first half of the 20th century climate‐growth relationships were relatively similar between the southern and northern range edges but diverged after the 1950s. Our findings imply that simulated projections of climate impacts on tree growth, and by implication on forest ecosystem productivity, derived from models of past climate‐growth relationships need to carefully consider different and non‐stationarity responses along the wide latitudinal distribution of this species.     

Precocious reproduction increases at the leading edge of a mangrove range expansion

Climate change‐driven shifts in species ranges are ongoing and expected to increase. However, life‐history traits may interact with climate to influence species ranges, potentially accelerating or slowing range shifts in response to climate change. Tropical mangroves have expanded their ranges poleward in the last three decades. Here, we report on a shift at the range edge in life‐history traits related to reproduction and dispersal. With a common garden experiment and field observations, we show that Rhizophora mangle individuals from northern populations reproduce at a younger age than those from southern populations. In a common garden at the northern range limit, 38% of individuals from the northernmost population were reproductive by age 2, but less than 10% of individuals from the southernmost population were reproductive by the same age, with intermediate amounts of reproduction from intermediate latitudes. Field observations show a similar pattern of younger reproductive individuals toward the northern range limit. We also demonstrate a shift toward larger propagule size in populations at the leading range edge, which may aid seedling growth. The substantial increase in precocious reproduction at the leading edge of the R. mangle range could accelerate population growth and hasten the expansion of mangroves into salt marshes.     

Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming

Predicting climate‐driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30‐year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography.     

Local adaptation of a Drosophila parasitoid: habitat‐specific differences in thermal reaction norms

Local climate is an important source of selection on thermal reaction norms that has been well investigated in cline studies, where populations sampled along altitudinal or latitudinal gradients are compared. Several biotic factors vary with climate, but are rarely integrated as alternative agents of selection to climatic factors. We tested the hypothesis that habitat may select for thermal reaction norms and magnitude of phenotypic plasticity in a drosophila parasitoid, independently of the climate of origin. We sampled populations of Leptopilina boulardi, a Drosophila parasitoid in two different habitats, orchards and forests. Orchards offer laying opportunities over small distances for parasitoids, with a low variability in the number of hosts per patch, while forests offer more dispersed and more variable patches. The sampling was realized in a temperate and a Mediterranean climate. We measured egg load, volume of eggs, longevity and lipid content for parasitoids reared at two temperatures. Reaction norms were opposite for populations from forests and orchards for investment in reproduction, independently of the climate of origin. The maximal investment of resources in reproduction occurred at the lower temperature in orchards and the higher temperature in forests. Host distribution differences between habitats may explain these opposite reaction norms. We also observed a flatter reaction norm for egg load in forests than in orchards. This relative canalization may have been selected in response to the higher variability in laying opportunities observed in forests. Our results demonstrate the potential role of resource distribution in evolution of thermal plasticity.     

Influence of altitude on local adaptation in upland tree species from central Argentina

• Steep climatic gradients boost morphological and physiological adjustments in plants, with consequences on performance. The three principal woody species of the Sierras Grandes Mountains of central Argentina have marked differences in sapling performance along their altitudinal distribution. We hypothesize that the steep gradient of climatic conditions across the species’ altitudinal distribution promotes trait differences between populations of different altitudes that are inherited by the following generation.
• Seeds from different altitudes were exposed to three temperature regimes to assess differential germination responses. Saplings were then transplanted to a greenhouse to assess possible variations in attributes and performance after 18 months.
• The three species showed differences in germination responses to temperature among altitudes and/or in sapling attributes and performance. In Maytenus boaria and Escallonia cordobensis, germination success was higher under high temperatures for the highest‐altitude, whereas lower temperatures boosted germination of the lowest altitudes. Polylepis australis showed no differences in germination among temperature treatments. In the greenhouse, saplings of the three species from intermediate altitudes showed high performance, whereas the upper and lower populations seemed to be adjusted to tolerating more stressful conditions (i.e., lower temperatures at the upper end and water stress at the lower end), showing lower performance toward both altitudinal limits.
• These patterns agree with those described for saplings growing under field conditions, suggesting adjustments in response to environmental changes undergone by populations along the altitudinal range. The marked adjustments of populations to the local environment suggest a potentially high impact of climatic change on species distribution.

     

Demographic processes of upward range contraction in a long‐lived Mediterranean high mountain plant

We analyzed demographic data of a long‐lived high mountain Mediterranean plant, Silene ciliata Poirret, over a 4‐yr period. Selected populations were located at contrasting altitudes at the southernmost margin of the species (Sierra de Guadarrama, central Spain), representing a local altitudinal range at the rear edge of its overall distribution. Previous studies have suggested that differences in the reproduction and performance of individuals at upper and lower populations may have implications for population dynamics. We used matrix analysis to assess their demographic behaviour. Life Table Response Experiments were used to identify the life history stages most relevant to observed differences in population growth rates between populations. Transition matrices revealed great spatio‐temporal variability in demographic traits. Seedling recruitment was very low each year in all populations. Maximum longevity of S. ciliata individuals in the lower peripheral population was much lower compared to the central population, probably due to higher adult mortality. Population growth rate (λ) showed a declining trend at the lowest altitude and a relatively stable trend at the central population. Long‐term simulations also indicated a great risk of quasi‐extinction at the lowest population. Our results suggest that rear edge populations of S. ciliata at Sierra de Guadarrama are suffering demographic processes that may be leading to the latitudinal displacement of the species' range.     

Behavioral constraints on local adaptation and counter‐gradient variation: Implications for climate change

Resource allocation to growth, reproduction, and body maintenance varies within species along latitudinal gradients. Two hypotheses explaining this variation are local adaptation and counter‐gradient variation. The local adaptation hypothesis proposes that populations are adapted to local environmental conditions and are therefore less adapted to environmental conditions at other locations. The counter‐gradient variation hypothesis proposes that one population out performs others across an environmental gradient because its source location has greater selective pressure than other locations. Our study had two goals. First, we tested the local adaptation and counter‐gradient variation hypotheses by measuring effects of environmental temperature on phenotypic expression of reproductive traits in the burying beetle, Nicrophorus orbicollis Say, from three populations along a latitudinal gradient in a common garden experimental design. Second, we compared patterns of variation to evaluate whether traits covary or whether local adaptation of traits precludes adaptive responses by others. Across a latitudinal range, N. orbicollis exhibits variation in initiating reproduction and brood sizes. Consistent with local adaptation: (a) beetles were less likely to initiate breeding at extreme temperatures, especially when that temperature represents their source range; (b) once beetles initiate reproduction, source populations produce relatively larger broods at temperatures consistent with their local environment. Consistent with counter‐gradient variation, lower latitude populations were more successful at producing offspring at lower temperatures. We found no evidence for adaptive variation in other adult or offspring performance traits. This suite of traits does not appear to coevolve along the latitudinal gradient. Rather, response to selection to breed within a narrow temperature range may preclude selection on other traits. Our study highlights that N. orbicollis uses temperature as an environmental cue to determine whether to initiate reproduction, providing insight into how behavior is modified to avoid costly reproductive attempts. Furthermore, our results suggest a temperature constraint that shapes reproductive behavior.