Invasion status and impacts of parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus) in West-Central region of Bhutan

Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is an invasive alien plant species that is spreading rapidly all over the world. With globalization and climate change, it will continue to spread, posing threats to agriculture, biodiversity and the environment. To determine its invasion and impacts in Bhutan, an investigation was undertaken in West-Central Bhutan using a questionnaire survey, complemented by MaxEnt modelling. Most farmers (19–30%) recall having seen parthenium for the last 11–15 years, or more. Infestations of parthenium differed significantly (P?<?0.05) across three districts for dryland, orchards, fallow land and pastures, but not in rice fields and on roadsides. The most intensely invaded land types were fallow land, pastures, and roadsides, with farmers perceiving it as ‘somewhat common’(score?~?3) and ‘common’ (score?~?4) weed. Farmers’ perceptions of the invasiveness of parthenium weed were high at 77% (Wangdue), 80% (Punakha), and 88% (Tsirang), considering it as at least ‘somewhat invasive’, or higher. Only 13–25% of respondents scored the weed as ‘highly invasive’. Parthenium invasion significantly (P?<?0.01 to 0.001) escalated the cost of production, reduced fodder quality, supressed native species and caused allergies to the locals in the study districts. Further, MaxEnt modelling of parthenium distribution was undertaken, using the parthenium presence-only data and bioclimatic variables, under 2 CO₂ emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), i.e. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5). The projections showed discernible spatial changes in climate suitability over 2070, mostly in the mid- and high-altitude zones, indicating aggressive incursion into Bhutan’s important agro-ecological landscapes. The findings, highlight the urgent need to initiate parthenium management strategies for food production and natural resources.

     

Tackling intraspecific genetic structure in distribution models better reflects species geographical range

Genetic diversity provides insight into heterogeneous demographic and adaptive history across organisms’ distribution ranges. For this reason, decomposing single species into genetic units may represent a powerful tool to better understand biogeographical patterns as well as improve predictions of the effects of GCC (global climate change) on biodiversity loss. Using 279 georeferenced Iberian accessions, we used classes of three intraspecific genetic units of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana obtained from the genetic analyses of nuclear SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), chloroplast SNPs, and the vernalization requirement for flowering. We used SDM (species distribution models), including climate, vegetation, and soil data, at the whole‐species and genetic‐unit levels. We compared model outputs for present environmental conditions and with a particularly severe GCC scenario. SDM accuracy was high for genetic units with smaller distribution ranges. Kernel density plots identified the environmental variables underpinning potential distribution ranges of genetic units. Combinations of environmental variables accounted for potential distribution ranges of genetic units, which shrank dramatically with GCC at almost all levels. Only two genetic clusters increased their potential distribution ranges with GCC. The application of SDM to intraspecific genetic units provides a detailed picture on the biogeographical patterns of distinct genetic groups based on different genetic criteria. Our approach also allowed us to pinpoint the genetic changes, in terms of genetic background and physiological requirements for flowering, that Iberian A. thaliana may experience with a GCC scenario applying SDM to intraspecific genetic units.     

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche‐based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1‐WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.     

Trends and uncertainties in budburst projections of Norway spruce in Northern Europe

Budburst is regulated by temperature conditions, and a warming climate is associated with earlier budburst. A range of phenology models has been developed to assess climate change effects, and they tend to produce different results. This is mainly caused by different model representations of tree physiology processes, selection of observational data for model parameterization, and selection of climate model data to generate future projections. In this study, we applied (i) Bayesian inference to estimate model parameter values to address uncertainties associated with selection of observational data, (ii) selection of climate model data representative of a larger dataset, and (iii) ensembles modeling over multiple initial conditions, model classes, model parameterizations, and boundary conditions to generate future projections and uncertainty estimates. The ensemble projection indicated that the budburst of Norway spruce in northern Europe will on average take place 10.2 ± 3.7 days earlier in 2051–2080 than in 1971–2000, given climate conditions corresponding to RCP 8.5. Three provenances were assessed separately (one early and two late), and the projections indicated that the relationship among provenance will remain also in a warmer climate. Structurally complex models were more likely to fail predicting budburst for some combinations of site and year than simple models. However, they contributed to the overall picture of current understanding of climate impacts on tree phenology by capturing additional aspects of temperature response, for example, chilling. Model parameterizations based on single sites were more likely to result in model failure than parameterizations based on multiple sites, highlighting that the model parameterization is sensitive to initial conditions and may not perform well under other climate conditions, whether the change is due to a shift in space or over time. By addressing a range of uncertainties, this study showed that ensemble modeling provides a more robust impact assessment than would a single phenology model run.     

Trophic consequences of non‐native species for commercial fish in a backwater bay of the Three Gorges Reservoir,Southwest China

Trophic niche overlap in native and alien fish species can lead to competitive interactions whereby non‐native fishes outcompete indigenous individuals and eventually affect the viability of natural populations. The species Erythroculter mongolicus and Erythroculter ilishaeformis (belonging to the Culterinae), which are two commercially important fish species in the backwater bay of the Pengxi River in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), were threatened by competition from the non‐native Coilia ectenes (lake anchovy). The latter is an alien species introduced into the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China and now widespread in the TGR. The trophic consequences of non‐native lake anchovy invasion for E. mongolicus and E. ilishaeformis were assessed using stable isotope analysis (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) and associated metrics including the isotopic niche, measured as the standard ellipse area. The trophic niche of native E. mongolicus had little overlap (<15%) with the alien fish species and was significantly reduced in size after invasion by lake anchovy. This suggests that E. mongolicus shifted to a more specialized diet after invasion by lake anchovy. In contrast, the trophic niche overlap of native fish E. ilishaeformis with the alien fish species was larger (>50%) and the niche was obviously increased, implying that fish in this species exploited a wider dietary base to maintain their energetic requirements. Thus, marked changes for the native E. mongolicus and E. ilishaeformis were detected as the trophic consequences of invasion of non‐native lake anchovy.     

Geographic range estimates and environmental requirements for the harpy eagle derived from spatial models of current and past distribution

Understanding species–environment relationships is key to defining the spatial structure of species distributions and develop effective conservation plans. However, for many species, this baseline information does not exist. With reliable presence data, spatial models that predict geographic ranges and identify environmental processes regulating distribution are a cost‐effective and rapid method to achieve this. Yet these spatial models are lacking for many rare and threatened species, particularly in tropical regions. The harpy eagle (Harpia harpyja) is a Neotropical forest raptor of conservation concern with a continental distribution across lowland tropical forests in Central and South America. Currently, the harpy eagle faces threats from habitat loss and persecution and is categorized as Near‐Threatened by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Within a point process modeling (PPM) framework, we use presence‐only occurrences with climatic and topographical predictors to estimate current and past distributions and define environmental requirements using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. The current PPM prediction had high calibration accuracy (Continuous Boyce Index = 0.838) and was robust to null expectations (pROC ratio = 1.407). Three predictors contributed 96% to the PPM prediction, with Climatic Moisture Index the most important (72.1%), followed by minimum temperature of the warmest month (15.6%) and Terrain Roughness Index (8.3%). Assessing distribution in environmental space confirmed the same predictors explaining distribution, along with precipitation in the wettest month. Our reclassified binary model estimated a current range size 11% smaller than the current IUCN range polygon. Paleoclimatic projections combined with the current model predicted stable climatic refugia in the central Amazon, Guyana, eastern Colombia, and Panama. We propose a data‐driven geographic range to complement the current IUCN range estimate and that despite its continental distribution, this tropical forest raptor is highly specialized to specific environmental requirements.     

Assessing congruence of opportunistic records and systematic surveys for predicting Hispaniolan mammal species distributions

Comparative assessment of the relative information content of different independent spatial data types is necessary to evaluate whether they provide congruent biogeographic signals for predicting species ranges. Opportunistic occurrence records and systematically collected survey data are available from the Dominican Republic for Hispaniola’s surviving endemic non‐volant mammals, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus) and Hispaniolan hutia (Plagiodontia aedium); opportunistic records (archaeological, historical and recent) exist from across the entire country, and systematic survey data have been collected from seven protected areas. Species distribution models were developed in maxent for solenodons and hutias using both data types, with species habitat suitability and potential country‐level distribution predicted using seven biotic and abiotic environmental variables. Three different models were produced and compared for each species: (a) opportunistic model, with starting model incorporating abiotic‐only predictors; (b) total survey model, with starting model incorporating biotic and abiotic predictors; and (c) reduced survey model, with starting model incorporating abiotic‐only predictors to allow further comparison with the opportunistic model. All models predict suitable environmental conditions for both solenodons and hutias across a broadly congruent, relatively large area of the Dominican Republic, providing a spatial baseline of conservation‐priority landscapes that might support native mammals. Correlation between total and reduced survey models is high for both species, indicating the substantial explanatory power of abiotic variables for predicting Hispaniolan mammal distributions. However, correlation between survey models and opportunistic models is only moderately positive. Species distribution models derived from different data types can provide different predictions about habitat suitability and conservation‐priority landscapes for threatened species, likely reflecting incompleteness and bias in spatial sampling associated with both data types. Models derived using both opportunistic and systematic data must therefore be applied critically and cautiously.     

From endogenous to exogenous pattern formation: Invasive plant species changes the spatial distribution of a native ant

Invasive species are a significant threat to global biodiversity, but our understanding of how invasive species impact native communities across space and time remains limited. Based on observations in an old field in Southeast Michigan spanning 35 years, our study documents significant impacts of habitat change, likely driven by the invasion of the shrub, Elaeagnus umbellata, on the nest distribution patterns and population demographics of a native ant species, Formica obscuripes. Landcover change in aerial photographs indicates that E. umbellata expanded aggressively, transforming a large proportion of the original open field into dense shrubland. By comparing the ant's landcover preferences before and after the invasion, we demonstrate that this species experienced a significant unfavorable change in its foraging areas. We also find that shrub landcover significantly moderates aggression between nests, suggesting nests are more related where there is more E. umbellata. This may represent a shift in reproductive strategy from queen flights, reported in the past, to asexual nest budding. Our results suggest that E. umbellata may affect the spatial distribution of F. obscuripes by shifting the drivers of nest pattern formation from an endogenous process (queen flights), which led to a uniform pattern, to a process that is both endogenous (nest budding) and exogenous (loss of preferred habitat), resulting in a significantly different clustered pattern. The number and sizes of F. obscuripes nests in our study site are projected to decrease in the next 40 years, although further study of this population's colony structures is needed to understand the extent of this decrease. Elaeagnus umbellata is a common invasive shrub, and similar impacts on native species might occur in its invasive range, or in areas with similar shrub invasions.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird‐dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced frosts with climate change may provide more suitable habitats and enable the spread of these species.     

High invasion potential of Hydrilla verticillata in the Americas predicted using ecological niche modeling combined with genetic data

Ecological niche modeling is an effective tool to characterize the spatial distribution of suitable areas for species, and it is especially useful for predicting the potential distribution of invasive species. The widespread submerged plant Hydrilla verticillata (hydrilla) has an obvious phylogeographical pattern: Four genetic lineages occupy distinct regions in native range, and only one lineage invades the Americas. Here, we aimed to evaluate climatic niche conservatism of hydrilla in North America at the intraspecific level and explore its invasion potential in the Americas by comparing climatic niches in a phylogenetic context. Niche shift was found in the invasion process of hydrilla in North America, which is probably mainly attributed to high levels of somatic mutation. Dramatic changes in range expansion in the Americas were predicted in the situation of all four genetic lineages invading the Americas or future climatic changes, especially in South America; this suggests that there is a high invasion potential of hydrilla in the Americas. Our findings provide useful information for the management of hydrilla in the Americas and give an example of exploring intraspecific climatic niche to better understand species invasion.     

Distributions of invasive weed Parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) in the University campus Peshawar KPK

A very interesting survey was performed to measure the distribution of invasive Parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) weed in the University Campus, Peshawar, the capital city of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The University Campus comprised on; The University of Peshawar, Islamia College University, The University of Agriculture Peshawar, Pakistan Forest Institute and the New Developmental Research Farm. In these selected areas Parthenium weed distribution was measured in particular the academic, residential and research farm. Moreover, the survey also investigated the impact of parthenium weed upon native weeds flora inside the University campus. A 1m² quadrat was used to collect the data. During the survey, a total of 32 weeds species were recorded belonging to 18 different families and 32 genera, the life cycle of 23 weeds were annual while 9 weeds have a perennial. The data were recorded on absolute density (%), relative density (%), absolute frequency (%), relative frequency (%) and importance values (%) of parthenium weed and others flora. The collected data show that parthenium weed was the most dominant species having 76.8 m^?2 plants density in the NDF and (32.0 m^?2) at Islamia College University. However, the highest frequency (100%) of Parthenium was observed for The University of Agriculture, while minimum (80%) occurred in the Agronomy field. A More, the relative frequency of Parthenium was maximum (25%) in Islamia College; whereas, it's minimum (12.9%) at Agronomy field. Finally, the Importance Value of Parthenium indicates the highest (45.98%) at Dairy Farm followed by (40.33%) at the Horticulture field's area. In short, the Parthenium weed becomes more problematic and replaces all the native flora in the non-crop area specially Dicanthium annulatum L. a native grass species on the ridges of the field being replaced by parthenium. Due to no proper management and high growth rate, nowadays it becomes like a superweed in the KPK and especially in Pakistan. So, the management of Parthenium weed requires the call attention from the Govt. policymaker and proper quarantine inspection to conserve the native flora and field crops to get maximum crop yield.     

Deciphering the worldwide invasion of the Asian long‐horned beetle: A recurrent invasion process from the native area together with a bridgehead effect

Retracing introduction routes is crucial for understanding the evolutionary processes involved in an invasion, as well as for highlighting the invasion history of a species at the global scale. The Asian long‐horned beetle (ALB) Anoplophora glabripennis is a xylophagous pest native to Asia and invasive in North America and Europe. It is responsible for severe losses of urban trees, in both its native and invaded ranges. Based on historical and genetic data, several hypotheses have been formulated concerning its invasion history, including the possibility of multiple introductions from the native zone and secondary dispersal within the invaded areas, but none have been formally tested. In this study, we characterized the genetic structure of ALB in both its native and invaded ranges using microsatellites. In order to test different invasion scenarios, we used an approximate Bayesian “random forest” algorithm together with traditional population genetics approaches. The strong population differentiation observed in the native area was not geographically structured, suggesting complex migration events that were probably human‐mediated. Both native and invasive populations had low genetic diversity, but this characteristic did not prevent the success of the ALB invasions. Our results highlight the complexity of invasion pathways for insect pests. Specifically, our findings indicate that invasive species might be repeatedly introduced from their native range, and they emphasize the importance of multiple, human‐mediated introductions in successful invasions. Finally, our results demonstrate that invasive species can spread across continents following a bridgehead path, in which an invasive population may have acted as a source for another invasion.     

Mutualism influences species distribution predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding anuran under climate change

Ecological niche models, or species distribution models, have been widely used to identify potentially suitable areas for species in future climate change scenarios. However, there are inherent errors to these models due to their inability to evaluate species occurrence influenced by non‐climatic factors. With the intuit to improve the modelling predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding treefrog (Phyllodytes melanomystax, Hylidae), we investigate how the climatic suitability of bromeliads influences the distribution model for the treefrog in the context of baseline and 2050 climate change scenarios. We used point occurrence data on the frog and the bromeliad (Vriesea procera, Bromeliaceae) to generate their predicted distributions based on baseline and 2050 climates. Using a consensus of five algorithms, we compared the accuracy of the models and the geographic predictions for the frog generated from two modelling procedures: (i) a climate‐only model for P. melanomystax and V. procera; and (ii) a climate‐biotic model for P. melanomystax, in which the climatic suitability of the bromeliad was jointly considered with the climatic variables. Both modelling approaches generated strong and similar predictive power for P. melanomystax, yet climate‐biotic modelling generated more concise predictions, particularly for the year 2050. Specifically, because the predicted area of the bromeliad overlaps with the predictions for the treefrog in the baseline climate, both modelling approaches produce reasonable similar predicted areas for the anuran. Alternatively, due to the predicted loss of northern climatically suitable areas for the bromeliad by 2050, only the climate‐biotic models provide evidence that northern populations of P. melanomystax will likely be negatively affected by 2050.     

Unraveling the habitat preferences of two closely related bumble bee species in Eastern Europe

Co‐occurrence of closely related species is often explained through resource partitioning, where key morphological or life‐history traits evolve under strong divergent selection. In bumble bees (genus Bombus), differences in tongue lengths, nest sites, and several life‐history traits are the principal factors in resource partitioning. However, the buff‐tailed and white‐tailed bumble bee (Bombus terrestris and B. lucorum respectively) are very similar in morphology and life history, but their ranges nevertheless partly overlap, raising the question how they are ecologically divergent. What little is known about the environmental factors determining their distributions stems from studies in Central and Western Europe, but even less information is available about their distributions in Eastern Europe, where different subspecies occur. Here, we aimed to disentangle the broad habitat requirements and associated distributions of these species in Romania and Bulgaria. First, we genetically identified sampled individuals from many sites across the study area. We then not only computed species distributions based on presence‐only data, but also expanded on these models using relative abundance data. We found that B. terrestris is a more generalist species than previously thought, but that B. lucorum is restricted to forested areas with colder and wetter climates, which in our study area are primarily found at higher elevations. Both vegetation parameters such as annual mean Leaf Area Index and canopy height, as well as climatic conditions, were important in explaining their distributions. Although our models based on presence‐only data suggest a large overlap in their respective distributions, results on their relative abundance suggest that the two species replace one another across an environmental gradient correlated to elevation. The inclusion of abundance enhances our understanding of the distribution of these species, supporting the emerging recognition of the importance of abundance data in species distribution modeling.     

Host range and risk assessment of Zygogramma bicolorata,a defoliating agent released in South Africa for the biological control of Parthenium hysterophorus

Parthenium hysterophorus (parthenium) is a weed of international importance and is spreading rapidly in sub-Saharan Africa. Consequently, it has been targeted for biocontrol in South Africa since 2003. Based on precedents elsewhere in the world, the defoliating beetle Zygogramma bicolorata was prioritised as a candidate agent. Although no-choice tests, involving some 48 test plant species, indicated a significant preference for parthenium, significantly reduced feeding and oviposition was recorded on some species. Multiple-choice tests resolved many of these non-target results; however, Helianthus annuus (sunflower) was still selected for oviposition and feeding. Of the 12 sunflower cultivars tested, four were selected for oviposition, while two were selected for oviposition and feeding. These six cultivars were then subjected to larval development trials, together with three native and two weed species (in the Asteraceae). These trials showed high levels of complete development on parthenium, significantly reduced development on sunflower cultivars, and partial development on only one of the weed species. Finally, a risk assessment was conducted on the six sunflower cultivars to quantify Z. bicolorata feeding and reproductive performance. Feeding risk calculations revealed these cultivars to have an extremely low risk (<0.2%) of supporting Z. bicolorata feeding and development. Similarly, reproductive risk calculations showed a very low risk (<0.16%) of supporting viable Z. bicolorata populations. These data are supported by findings from both the native (Mexico) and introduced ranges (Australia, India) of Z. bicolorata, where it has never been recorded as a pest of sunflower. These considerations were accepted by the regulatory authorities and in August 2013, Z. bicolorata became the second insect agent to be released in South Africa for the biocontrol of parthenium.     

Taxonomic revision of the humpback dolphins (Sousa spp.), and description of a new species from Australia

The taxonomy of the humpback dolphin genus Sousa has been controversial and unsettled for centuries, but recent work indicates that there are several valid species. A review of multiple lines of evidence from skeletal morphology, external morphology, coloration, molecular genetics, and biogeography, in combination provides strong support for the recognition of four species of Sousa. These include S. teuszii (Kükenthal, 1892), a species with uniform gray coloration and a prominent dorsal hump, which is found in the Atlantic Ocean off West Africa. The species S. plumbea (G. Cuvier, 1829) has similar external appearance to S. teuszii, but has a more pointed dorsal fin. It occurs in the Indian Ocean from South Africa to Myanmar (Burma). The original taxon, S. chinensis (Osbeck, 1765), is reserved for the species that has a larger dorsal fin with no prominent hump, and largely white adult coloration. It ranges from eastern India to central China and throughout Southeast Asia. Finally, we describe a new species of Sousa, the Australian humpback dolphin, which occurs in the waters of the Sahul Shelf from northern Australia to southern New Guinea. It has a lower dorsal fin, more extensive dark color on the body, and a dorsal “cape.” It is separated from the Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphin by a wide distributional gap that coincides with Wallace's Line.     

Occurrence of an invasive coral in the southwest Atlantic and comparison with a congener suggest potential niche expansion

Tubastraea tagusensis, a coral native to the Galapagos Archipelago, has successfully established and invaded the Brazilian coast where it modifies native tropical rocky shore and coral reef communities. In order to understand the processes underlying the establishment of T. tagusensis, we tested whether Maxent, a tool for species distribution modeling, based on the native range of T. tagusensis correctly forecasted the invasion range of this species in Brazil. The Maxent algorithm was unable to predict the Brazilian coast as a suitable environment for the establishment of T. tagusensis. A comparison between these models and a principal component analysis (PCA) allowed us to examine the environmental dissimilarity between the two occupied regions (native and invaded) and to assess the species' occupied niche breadth. According to the PCA results, lower levels of chlorophyll‐a and nitrate on the Atlantic coast segregate the Brazilian and Galapagos environments, implying that T. tagusensis may have expanded its realized niche during the invasion process. We tested the possible realized niche expansion in T. tagusensis by assuming that Tubastraea spp. have similar fundamental niches, which was supported by exploring the environmental space of T. coccinea, a tropical‐cosmopolitan congener of T. tagusensis. We believe that the usage of Maxent should be treated with caution, especially when applied to biological invasion (or climate change) scenarios where the target species has a highly localized native (original) distribution, which may represent only a small portion of its fundamental niche, and therefore a violation of a SDM assumption.     

Multiple stressors facilitate the spread of a non‐indigenous bivalve in the Mediterranean Sea

Aim

The introduction of non‐indigenous species (NIS) via man‐made corridors connecting previously disparate oceanic regions is increasing globally. However, the environmental and anthropogenic factors facilitating invasion dynamics and their interactions are still largely unknown. This study compiles and inputs available data for the NIS bivalve Brachidontes pharaonis across the invaded biogeographic range in the Mediterranean basin into a species distribution model to predict future spread under a range of marine scenarios.

Location

Mediterranean Sea.

Methods

A systematic review produced the largest presence database ever assembled to inform the selection of biological, chemical and physical factors linked to the spread of B. pharaonis through the Suez Canal. We carried out a sensitivity analysis to simulate current and future trophic and salinity scenarios. A species distribution model was run to determine key drivers of invasion, quantify interactive impacts arising from a range of trophic states, salinity conditions and climatic scenarios and forecast future trajectories for the spread of NIS into new regions under multiple‐parameter scenarios (based on the main factors identified from the systematic review).

Results

Impacts on invasion trajectory arising from climate change and interactions with increasing salinity from the new opening of the canal were the primary drivers of expansion across the basin, the effects of which were further enhanced by eutrophication. Predictions of the current distribution were most accurate when multiple stressors were used to drive the model. A habitat suitability index developed at a subcontinental scale from model outputs identified novel favourable conditions for future colonization at specific locations under 2030 and 2050 climatic scenarios.

Main conclusions

Future expansion of B. pharaonis will be enhanced by climate‐facilitated increased sea temperature, interacting with increasing pressures from salinity and eutrophication. The spatially explicit risk output maps of invasions represent a powerful visual product for use in communication of the spread of NIS and decision‐support tools for scientists and policymakers. The suggested approach, the observed distribution pattern and driving processes can be applied to other NIS species and regions by providing novel forecasts of species occurrences under future multiple stressor scenarios and the location of suitable recipient habitats with respect to anthropogenic and environmental parameters.