Cross‐continental migratory connectivity and spatiotemporal migratory patterns in the great reed warbler

Migratory connectivity describes to which degree different breeding populations have distinct (non‐overlapping) non‐breeding sites. Uncovering the level of migratory connectivity is crucial for effective conservation actions and for understanding of the evolution of local adaptations and migratory routes. Here we investigate migration patterns in a passerine bird, the great reed warbler Acrocephalus arundinaceus, over its wide Western Palearctic breeding range using geolocators from Spain, Sweden, Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Turkey. We found moderate migratory connectivity: a highly significant spatial structure in the connections between breeding and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding grounds, but at the same time a partial overlap between individual populations, particularly along the Gulf of Guinea where the majority of birds from the Spanish, Swedish and Czech populations spent their non‐breeding period. The post‐breeding migration routes were similar in direction and rather parallel for the five populations. Birds from Turkey showed the most distinctive migratory routes and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding range, with a post‐breeding migration to east Africa and, together with birds from Bulgaria, a previously unknown pre‐breeding migration over the Arabian Peninsula indicating counter‐clockwise loop migration. The distances between breeding and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding sites, as well as between first and final sub‐Saharan non‐breeding sites, differed among populations. However, the total speed of migration did not differ significantly between populations; neither during post‐breeding migration in autumn, nor pre‐breeding migration in spring. There was also no significant relationship between the total speed of migration and distance between breeding and non‐breeding sites (neither post‐ nor pre‐breeding) and, surprisingly, the total speed of migration generally did not differ significantly between post‐breeding and pre‐breeding migration. Future challenges include understanding whether non‐breeding environmental conditions may have influenced the differences in migratory patterns that we observed between populations, and to which extent non‐breeding habitat fluctuations and loss may affect population sizes of migrants.     

The strength of migratory connectivity for birds en route to breeding through the Gulf of Mexico

The strength of migratory connectivity is a measure of the cohesion of populations among phases of the annual cycle, including breeding, migration, and wintering. Many Nearctic‐Neotropical species have strong migratory connectivity between breeding and wintering phases of the annual cycle. It is less clear if this strength persists during migration when multiple endogenous and exogenous factors may decrease the cohesion of populations among routes or through time along the same routes. We sampled three bird species, American redstart Setophaga ruticilla, ovenbird Seiurus aurocapilla, and wood thrush Hylocichla mustelina, during spring migration through the Gulf of Mexico region to test if breeding populations differentiate spatially among migration routes or temporally along the same migration routes and the extent to which within‐population timing is a function of sex, age, and carry‐over from winter habitat, as measured by stable carbon isotope values in claws (δ¹³C). To make quantitative comparisons of migratory connectivity possible, we developed and used new methodology to estimate the strength of migratory connectivity (MC) from probabilistic origin assignments identified using stable hydrogen isotopes in feathers (δ²H). We found support for spatial differentiation among routes by American redstarts and ovenbirds and temporal differentiation along routes by American redstarts. After controlling for breeding origin, the timing of American redstart migration differed among ages and sexes and ovenbird migration timing was influenced by carry‐over from winter habitat. The strength of migratory connectivity did not differ among the three species, with each showing weak breeding‐to‐spring migration MC relative to prior assessments of breeding‐wintering connectivity. Our work begins to fill an essential gap in methodology and understanding of the extent to which populations remain together during migration, information critical for a full annual cycle perspective on the population dynamics and conservation of migratory animals.     

Integrating stable isotopes,parasite, and ring‐reencounter data to quantify migratory connectivity—A case study with Barn Swallows breeding in Switzerland,Germany, Sweden,and Finland

Ecosystems around the world are connected by seasonal migration. The migrant animals themselves are influenced by migratory connectivity through effects on the individual and the population level. Measuring migratory connectivity is notoriously difficult due to the simple requirement of data conveying information about the nonbreeding distribution of many individuals from several breeding populations. Explicit integration of data derived from different methods increases the precision and the reliability of parameter estimates. We combine ring‐reencounter, stable isotope, and blood parasite data of Barn Swallows Hirundo rustica in a single integrated model to estimate migratory connectivity for three large scale breeding populations across a latitudinal gradient from Central Europe to Scandinavia. To this end, we integrated a non‐Markovian multistate mark‐recovery model for the ring‐reencounter data with normal and binomial mixture models for the stable isotope and parasite data. The integration of different data sources within a mark‐recapture modeling framework enables the most precise quantification of migratory connectivity on the given broad spatial scale. The results show that northern‐breeding populations and Southern Africa as well as southern‐breeding populations and Western–Central Africa are more strongly connected through Barn Swallow migration than central European breeding populations with any of the African wintering areas. The nonbreeding distribution of Barn Swallows from central European breeding populations seems to be a mixture of those populations breeding further north and south, indicating a migratory divide.     

Population dynamics in migratory networks

Migratory animals are comprised of a complex series of interconnected breeding and nonbreeding populations. Because individuals in any given population can arrive from a variety of sites the previous season, predicting how different populations will respond to environmental change can be challenging. In this study, we develop a population model composed of a network of breeding and wintering sites to show how habitat loss affects patterns of connectivity and species abundance. When the costs of migration are evenly distributed, habitat loss at a single site can increase the degree of connectivity (mixing) within the entire network, which then acts to buffer global populations from declines. However, the degree to which populations are buffered depends on where habitat loss occurs within the network: a site that has the potential to receive individuals from multiple populations in the opposite season will lead to smaller declines than a site that is more isolated. In other cases when there are equal costs of migration to two or more sites in the opposite season, habitat loss can result in some populations becoming segregated (disconnected) from the rest of the network. The geographic structure of the network can have a significant influence on relative population sizes of sites in the same season and can also affect the overall degree of mixing in the network, even when sites are of equal intrinsic quality. When a migratory network is widely spaced and migration costs are high, an equivalent habitat loss will lead to a larger decline in global population size than will occur in a network where the overall costs of migration are low. Our model provides an important foundation to test predictions related to habitat loss in real-world migratory networks and demonstrates that migratory networks will likely produce different dynamics from traditional metapopulations. Our results provide strong evidence that estimating population connectivity is a prerequisite for successfully predicting changes in migratory populations.     

Simple signals indicate which period of the annual cycle drives declines in seasonal populations

For declining wild populations, a critical aspect of effective conservation is understanding when and where the causes of decline occur. The primary drivers of decline in migratory and seasonal populations can often be attributed to a specific period of the year. However, generic, broadly applicable indicators of these season‐specific drivers of population decline remain elusive. We used a multi‐generation experiment to investigate whether habitat loss in either the breeding or non‐breeding period generated distinct signatures of population decline. When breeding habitat was reduced, population size remained relatively stable for several generations, before declining precipitously. When non‐breeding habitat was reduced, between‐season variation in population counts increased relative to control populations, and non‐breeding population size declined steadily. Changes in seasonal vital rates and other indicators were predicted by the season in which habitat loss treatment occurred. Per capita reproductive output increased when non‐breeding habitat was reduced and decreased with breeding habitat reduction, whereas per capita non‐breeding survival showed the opposite trends. Our results reveal how simple signals inherent in counts and demographics of declining populations can indicate which period of the annual cycle is driving declines.     

Dichotomous strategies? The migration of Whimbrels breeding in the eastern Canadian sub‐Arctic

The conservation of migratory birds requires internationally coordinated efforts that, in turn, demand an understanding of population dynamics and connectivity throughout a species' range. Whimbrels (Numenius phaeopus) are a widespread long‐distance migratory shorebird with two disparate North American breeding populations. Monitoring efforts suggest that at least one of these populations is declining, but the level of migratory connectivity linking the two populations to specific non‐breeding sites or identifiable conservation threats remains unclear. We deployed light‐level geolocators in 2012 to track the migration of Whimbrels breeding near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. In 2013, we recovered 11 of these geolocators, yielding complete migration tracks for nine individuals. During southbound migration, six of the nine Whimbrels stopped at two staging sites on the mid‐Atlantic seaboard of the United States for an average of 22 days, whereas three individuals made nonstop flights of ~8000 km from Churchill to South America. All individuals subsequently spent the entire non‐breeding season along the northern coasts of Brazil and Suriname. On their way north, all birds stopped at the same two staging sites used during southbound migration. Individuals staged at these sites for an average of 34 days, significantly longer than during southbound migration, and all departed within a 5‐day period to undertake nonstop flights ranging from 2600 to 3100 km to the breeding grounds. These extended spring stopovers suggest that female Whimbrels likely employ a mixed breeding strategy, drawing on both endogenous and exogenous reserves to produce their eggs. Our results also demonstrate that this breeding population exhibits a high degree of connectivity among breeding, staging, and wintering sites. As with other long‐distance migratory shorebirds, conservation efforts for this population of Whimbrels must therefore focus on a small, but widely spaced, suite of sites that support a large proportion of the population.     

Extreme genetic similarity does not predict non‐breeding distribution of two closely related warblers

Detailed knowledge of migratory connectivity can facilitate effective conservation of Neotropical migrants by helping biologists understand where and when populations may be most limited. We studied the migratory behavior and non‐breeding distribution of two closely related species of conservation concern, the Golden‐winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) and Blue‐winged Warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera). Although both species have undergone dynamic range shifts and population changes attributed to habitat loss and social interactions promoting competition and hybridization, full life‐cycle conservation planning has been limited by a lack of information about their non‐breeding ecology. Because recent work has demonstrated that the two species are nearly identical genetically, we predicted that individuals from a single breeding population would have similar migratory timing and overwintering locations. In 2015, we placed light‐level geolocators on 25 males of both species and hybrids in an area of breeding sympatry at the Fort Drum Military Installation in Jefferson and Lewis counties, New York. Despite extreme genetic similarity, non‐breeding locations and duration of migration differed among genotypes. Golden‐winged Warblers (N = 2) overwintered > 1900 km southeast of the nearest Blue‐winged Warbler (N = 3) and spent nearly twice as many days in migration; hybrids (N = 2) had intermediate wintering distributions and migratory timing. Spring migration departure dates were staggered based on distance from the breeding area, and all birds arrived at the breeding site within 8 days of each other. Our results show that Golden‐winged Warblers and Blue‐winged Warblers in our study area retain species‐specific non‐breeding locations despite extreme genetic similarity, and suggest that non‐breeding locations and migratory timing vary along a genetic gradient. If the migratory period is limiting for these species, our results also suggest that Golden‐winged Warblers in our study population may be more vulnerable to population decline than Blue‐winged Warblers because they spend almost twice as many days migrating.     

Light‐level geolocators reveal migratory connectivity in European populations of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca

Understanding what drives or prevents long‐distance migrants to respond to environmental change requires basic knowledge about the wintering and breeding grounds, and the timing of movements between them. Both strong and weak migratory connectivity have been reported for Palearctic passerines wintering in Africa, but this remains unknown for most species. We investigated whether pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca from different breeding populations also differ in wintering locations in west‐Africa. Light‐level geolocator data revealed that flycatchers from different breeding populations travelled to different wintering sites, despite similarity in routes during most of the autumn migration. We found support for strong migratory connectivity showing an unexpected pattern: individuals breeding in Fennoscandia (S‐Finland and S‐Norway) wintered further west compared to individuals breeding at more southern latitudes in the Netherlands and SW‐United Kingdom. The same pattern was found in ring recovery data from sub‐Saharan Africa of individuals with confirmed breeding origin. Furthermore, population‐specific migratory connectivity was associated with geographical variation in breeding and migration phenology: birds from populations which breed and migrate earlier wintered further east than birds from ‘late’ populations. There was no indication that wintering locations were affected by geolocation deployment, as we found high repeatability and consistency in δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N stable isotope ratios of winter grown feathers of individuals with and without a geolocator. We discuss the potential ecological factors causing such an unexpected pattern of migratory connectivity. We hypothesise that population differences in wintering longitudes of pied flycatchers result from geographical variation in breeding phenology and the timing of fuelling for spring migration at the wintering grounds. Future research should aim at describing how temporal dynamics in food availability across the wintering range affects migration, wintering distribution and populations’ capacity to respond to environmental changes.     

Low and annually variable migratory connectivity in a long‐distance migrant: Whinchats Saxicola rubetra may show a bet‐hedging strategy

The spatial scale of non‐breeding areas used by long‐distance migrant animals can vary from specific, relatively small non‐breeding areas for each independent breeding population (high connectivity) to a distribution over a large non‐breeding area with mixing of breeding populations (low connectivity). Measuring variation in the degree of connectivity and how it arises is crucial to predict how migratory animals can respond to global habitat and climate change because low connectivity is likely to be an adaptation to environmental uncertainty. Here, we assess whether use of non‐breeding areas in a long‐distance migrant may be stochastic by measuring the degree of connectivity, and whether it is annually variable. Twenty‐nine wintering Whinchats tagged with geolocators over 2 years within 40 km² in central Nigeria were found to be breeding over 2.55 million km² (26% of the land area of Europe), without an asymptote being approached in the relationship between area and sample size. Ranges differed in size between years by 1.51 million km² and only 15% of the total breeding range across both years overlapped (8% overlap between years when only first‐year birds were considered), well above the range size difference and below the proportion of overlap that would be predicted from two equivalent groups breeding at random locations within the observed range. Mean distance between breeding locations (i.e. migratory spread) differed significantly between years (604 ± 18 km in 2013 and 869 ± 33 km in 2014). The results showed very low and variable connectivity that was reasonably robust to the errors and assumptions inherent in the use of geolocators, but with the caveat of having only ranges of 2 years to compare, and the sensitivity of range to the breeding locations of a small number of individuals. However, if representative, the results suggest the scope for between‐year variation (cohort effects) to determine migrant distribution on a large scale. Furthermore, for species with similarly low connectivity, we would predict breeding population trends to reflect average conditions across large non‐breeding areas: thus, as large areas of Africa become subject to habitat loss, migrant populations throughout Europe will decline.     

Non‐breeding range size predicts the magnitude of population trends in trans‐Saharan migratory passerine birds

Understanding why populations of some migratory species show a directional change over time, i.e. increase or decrease, while others do not, remains a challenge for ecological research. One possible explanation is that species with smaller non‐breeding ranges may have more pronounced directional population trends, and their populations are thus more sensitive to the variation in environmental conditions in their non‐breeding quarters. According to the serial residency hypothesis, this sensitivity should lead to higher magnitudes (i.e. absolute values) of population trends for species with smaller non‐breeding ranges, with the direction of trend being either positive or negative depending on the nature of the environmental change. We tested this hypothesis using population trends over 2001–2012 for 36 sub‐Saharan migratory passerine birds breeding in Europe. Namely, we related the magnitude of the species' population trends to the size of their sub‐Saharan non‐breeding grounds, whilst controlling for factors including number of migration routes, non‐breeding habitat niche and wetness, breeding habitat type and life‐history strategy. The magnitude of species' population trends grew with decreasing absolute size of sub‐Saharan non‐breeding ranges, and this result remained significant when non‐breeding range size was expressed relative to the size of the breeding range. After repeating the analysis with the trend direction, the relationship with the non‐breeding range size disappeared, indicating that both population decreases and increases are frequent amongst species with small non‐breeding range sizes. Therefore, species with small non‐breeding ranges are at a higher risk of population decline due to adverse factors such as habitat loss or climatic extremes, but their populations are also more likely to increase when suitable conditions appear. As non‐breeding ranges may originate from stochasticity of non‐breeding site selection in naive birds (‘serial‐residency’ hypothesis), it is crucial to maintain a network of stable and resilient habitats over large areas of birds’ non‐breeding quarters.     

Determining fine‐scale migratory connectivity and habitat selection for a migratory songbird by using new GPS technology

Migratory aerial insectivores are among the fastest declining avian groups, but our understanding of these trends has been limited by poor knowledge of migratory connectivity and the identification of critical habitat across the vast distances they travel annually. Using new, archival GPS loggers, we tracked individual purple martins Progne subis from breeding colonies across North America to determine precise (< > 10 m) locations of migratory and overwintering roost locations in South America and to test hypotheses for fine‐scale migratory connectivity and habitat use. We discovered weak migratory connectivity at the roost scale, and extensive, fine‐scale mixing of birds in the Amazon from distant (> 2000 km) breeding sites, with some individuals sharing the same roosting trees. Despite vast tracts of contiguous forest in this region, birds occupied a much more limited habitat, with most (56%) roosts occurring on small habitat islands that were strongly associated with water. Only 17% of these roosts were in current protected areas. These data reflect a critical advance in our ability to remotely determine precise migratory connectivity and habitat selection across vast spatial scales, enhancing our understanding of population dynamics and enabling more effective conservation of species at risk.     

The large‐scale drivers of population declines in a long‐distance migratory shorebird

Migratory species can travel tens of thousands of kilometers each year, spending different parts of their annual cycle in geographically distinct locations. Understanding the drivers of population change is vital for conserving migratory species, yet the challenge of collecting data over entire geographic ranges has hindered attempts to identify the processes leading to observed population changes. Here, we use remotely sensed environmental data and bird count data to investigate the factors driving variability in abundance in two subspecies of a long‐distance migratory shorebird, the bar‐tailed godwit Limosa lapponica. We compiled a spatially and temporally explicit dataset of three environmental variables to identify the conditions experienced by each subspecies in each stage of their annual cycle (breeding, non‐breeding and staging). We used a Bayesian N‐mixture model to analyze 18 years of monthly count data from 21 sites across Australia and New Zealand in relation to the remote sensing data. We found that the abundance of one subspecies L. l. menzbieri in their non‐breeding range was related to climate conditions in breeding grounds, and detected sustained population declines between 1995 and 2012 in both subspecies (L. l. menzbieri, –6.7% and L. l. baueri, –2.1% year^–1). To investigate the possible causes of the declines, we quantified changes in habitat extent at 22 migratory staging sites in the Yellow Sea, East Asia, over a 25‐year period and found –1.7% and –1.2% year^–1 loss of habitat at staging sites used by L. l. menzbieri and L. l baueri, respectively. Our results highlight the need to identify environmental and anthropogenic drivers of population change across all stages of migration to allow the formulation of effective conservation strategies across entire migratory ranges.     

Estimating the per‐capita contribution of habitats and pathways in a migratory network: a modelling approach

Every year, migratory species undertake seasonal movements along different pathways between discrete regions and habitats. The ability to assess the relative demographic contributions of these different habitats and pathways to the species’ overall population dynamics is critical for understanding the ecology of migratory species, and also has practical applications for management and conservation. Metrics for assessing habitat contributions have been well‐developed for metapopulations, but an equivalent metric is not currently available for migratory populations. Here, we develop a framework for estimating the demographic contributions of the discrete habitats and pathways used by migratory species throughout the annual cycle by estimating the per capita contribution of cohorts using these locations. Our framework accounts for seasonal movements between multiple breeding and non‐breeding habitats and for both resident and migratory cohorts. We illustrate our framework using a hypothetical migratory network of four habitats, which allows us to better understand how variations in habitat quality affect per capita contributions. Results indicate that per capita contributions for any habitat or pathway are dependent on habitat‐specific survival probabilities in all other areas used as part of the migratory circuit, and that contribution metrics are spatially linked (e.g. reduced survival in one habitat also decreases the contribution metric for other habitats). Our framework expands existing theory on the dynamics of spatiotemporally structured populations by developing a generalized approach to estimate the habitat‐ and pathway‐specific contributions of species migrating between multiple breeding and multiple non‐breeding habitats for a range of life histories or migratory strategies. Most importantly, it provides a means of prioritizing conservation efforts towards those migratory pathways and habitats that are most critical for the population viability of migratory species.     

Transcontinental migratory connectivity predicts parasite prevalence in breeding populations of the European barn swallow

Parasites exert a major impact on the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of their hosts and the associated biotic environment. Migration constitutes an effective means for long‐distance invasions of vector‐borne parasites and promotes their rapid spread. Yet, ecological and spatial information on population‐specific host–parasite connectivity is essentially lacking. Here, we address this question in a system consisting of a transcontinental migrant species, the European barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) which serves as a vector for avian endoparasites in the genera Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon. Using feather stable isotope ratios as geographically informative markers, we first assessed migratory connectivity in the host: Northern European breeding populations predominantly overwintered in dry, savannah‐like habitats in Southern Africa, whereas Southern European populations were associated with wetland habitats in Western Central Africa. Wintering areas of swallows breeding in Central Europe indicated a migratory divide with both migratory programmes occurring within the same breeding population. Subsequent genetic screens of parasites in the breeding populations revealed a link between the host's migratory programme and its parasitic repertoire: controlling for effects of local breeding location, prevalence of Africa‐transmitted Plasmodium lineages was significantly higher in individuals overwintering in the moist habitats of Western Central Africa, even among sympatrically breeding individuals with different overwintering locations. For the rarer Haemoproteus parasites, prevalence was best explained by breeding location alone, whereas no clear pattern emerged for the least abundant parasite Leucocytozoon. These results have implications for our understanding of spatio‐temporal host–parasite dynamics in migratory species and the spread of avian borne diseases.     

Conservation implications of past and present nesting habitat selection of the endangered Osprey Pandion haliaetus population of the Canary Islands

We studied nesting habitat selection of the endangered non‐migratory Osprey Pandion haliaetus population of the Canary Islands and evaluated the effect of human expansion in recent decades. Compared with randomly selected potential nest‐sites, Osprey nests were more frequently found on taller, southwest‐facing cliffs, characterized by lower human pressure and closer to Yellow‐legged Gull Larus michahellis colonies and Barbary Falcon Falco pelegrinoides breeding sites. Furthermore, changes in some breeding habitat features have been detected in recent decades. According to our predictive models, large areas of suitable habitat are available but unoccupied in the Canaries, and human activities are probably limiting the settlement and dispersion of new pairs.     

Migratory connectivity of Palaearctic–African migratory birds and their responses to environmental change: the serial residency hypothesis

In most long‐distance migratory birds, juveniles migrate without their parents and so are likely to lack detailed knowledge of where to go. This suggests the potential for stochasticity to affect their choice of wintering area at a large scale (> 1000 km). Adults, in contrast, may re‐use non‐breeding sites that promote their survival, so removing uncertainty from their subsequent migrations. I review the evidence for large‐scale stochastic juvenile site selection followed by adult site fidelity, and then develop a ‘serial‐residency’ hypothesis based on these two traits as a framework to explain both the migratory connectivity and the population dynamics of migrant birds and how these are affected by environmental change. Juvenile stochasticity is apparent in the age‐dependent effects of weather or experimental displacement on the outcome of migration and in the very wide variation in the destinations of individuals originating from the same area. Adults have been shown to be very faithful to their wintering grounds and even to staging sites. The serial residency hypothesis predicts that migrants that show these two traits will rely on an individually unique but fixed series of temporally and spatially linked sites to complete their annual cycle. As a consequence, migratory connectivity will be apparent at a very small scale for individuals, but only at a large scale for a population, and juveniles are predicted to occur more often at less suitable sites than adults, so that survival will be lower for juveniles. Migratory connectivity will arise only through spatial and temporal autocorrelation with local environmental constraints, particularly on passage, and the distribution and age structure of the population may reflect past environmental constraints. At least some juveniles will discover suitable habitat that they may re‐use as adults, thus promoting overall population‐level resilience to environmental change, and suggesting value in site‐based conservation. However, because migratory connectivity only acts on a large scale, any population of migrants will contain individuals that encounter a change in suitability somewhere in their non‐breeding range, so affecting average survival. Differences in population trends will therefore reflect variation in local breeding output added to average survival from wintering and staging areas. The latter is likely to be declining given increasing levels of environmental degradation throughout Africa. Large‐scale migratory connectivity also has implications for the evolutionary ecology of migrants, generally because this is likely to lead to selection for generalist traits.     

Using stable hydrogen isotopes (δ2H) and ring recoveries to trace natal origins in a Eurasian passerine with a migratory divide

Despite recent advances in technology, it remains difficult to connect breeding and non‐breeding areas of populations of migratory organisms due to the challenges of year‐round tracking. Here, we used the Eurasian reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus, a passerine with a pronounced migratory divide to demonstrate the promise of integrating several sources of information within the Bayesian modelling framework for the study of migratory connectivity. To this end, we combined data from stable hydrogen isotope ratios (δ²H) of feathers, ring recoveries, and the geographic delineation of sub‐populations on either side of the migratory divide. Feather δ²H measurements from local juvenile birds sampled across the breeding range tightly correlated with amount‐weighted mean annual precipitation δ²H values predicted for the natal sites. Predicted natal origins of birds intercepted en route in the Mediterranean region largely differed among the five stopover sites. Thanks to the different migratory pathways used by different breeding populations and the existence of a migratory divide, we were able to effectively narrow the assigned regions of origin. Our results show that spatial resolution of likelihood‐based assignments of geographic origins based on δ²H measurements may improve significantly when prior probabilities derived from population‐specific migratory directions are included. Integrating information from stable isotopes, ring recoveries, geolocators and other sources within the Bayesian modelling framework will provide an extremely useful toolbox for the study of animal movements in the future.     

The pull of the Central Flyway? Veeries breeding in western Canada migrate using an ancestral eastern route

Understanding non‐breeding season movements and identifying wintering areas of different populations of migratory birds is important for establishing patterns of migratory connectivity over the annual cycle. We analyzed archival solar geolocation (N = 5) and global positioning data (N = 1) to investigate migration routes, stopover sites, and wintering areas of a western‐most breeding population of Veeries (Catharus fuscescens) in the Pemberton Valley, British Columbia, Canada. Geolocation data were analyzed using a Bayesian state‐space model to improve likely position estimates. We compared our results with those from a Veery population located ~250 km east across a mountain chain in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, and with an eastern population in Delaware, U.S.A. Migrating Veeries from the Pemberton Valley used an eastern trajectory through the Rocky Mountains to the Great Plains to join a central flyway during fall and spring migration, a route similar to that used by Veeries breeding in the Okanagan Valley. However, wintering destinations of Pemberton Valley birds were more varied, with inter‐individual wintering distances ~1000 km greater than birds from the Okanagan Valley population and ~500 km from the previously known winter range of Veeries. The observed eastern migration path likely follows an ancestral route that evolved following the most recent glacial retreat. Consistent with patterns observed from the Okanagan and Delaware populations, Veeries from the Pemberton Valley undertook an intra‐tropical migration on the wintering grounds, but this winter movement differed from those of previously studied populations. Such winter movements may thus be idiosyncratic or show coarse population associations. Intra‐wintering‐ground movements likely occur either in response to seasonal changes in habitat suitability or as a means of optimizing pre‐migratory fueling prior to long‐distance spring movements to North America.     

Weak migratory connectivity,loop migration and multiple non-breeding site use in British breeding Whinchats Saxicola rubetra

Determining the links between breeding populations and the pressures, threats and conditions they experience presents a challenge for the conservation of migratory birds which can use multiple sites separated by hundreds to thousands of kilometres. Furthermore, migratory connectivity – the connections made by migrating individuals between networks of breeding and non-breeding sites – has important implications for population dynamics. The Whinchat Saxicola rubetra is declining across its range, and tracking data from a single African non-breeding site implies high migratory spread. We used geolocators to describe the migration routes and non-breeding areas of 20 Whinchats from three British breeding populations. As expected, migratory spread was high, with birds from the three populations overlapping across a wide area of West Africa. On average, in non-breeding areas, British breeding Whinchats were located 652 km apart from one another, with some likely to share non-breeding areas with individuals from breeding populations as far east as Russia. Four males made a direct non-breeding season movement to a second, more westerly, non-breeding location in January. Autumn migration was through Iberia and around the western edge of the Sahara Desert, whereas spring migration was more direct, indicating an anticlockwise loop migration. Weak migratory connectivity implies that Whinchat populations are somewhat buffered against local changes in non-breeding conditions. If non-breeding season processes have played a role in the species’ decline, then large-scale drivers are likely to be the cause, although processes operating on migration, or interactions between breeding and non-breeding processes, cannot be ruled out.     

Range‐wide patterns of migratory connectivity in the western sandpiper Calidris mauri

Understanding the population dynamics of migratory animals and predicting the consequences of environmental change requires knowing how populations are spatially connected between different periods of the annual cycle. We used stable isotopes to examine patterns of migratory connectivity across the range of the western sandpiper Calidris mauri. First, we developed a winter isotope basemap from stable‐hydrogen (δD), ‐carbon (δ¹³C), and ‐nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotopes of feathers grown in wintering areas. δD and δ¹⁵N values from wintering individuals varied with the latitude and longitude of capture location, while δ¹³C varied with longitude only. We then tested the ability of the basemap to assign known‐origin individuals. Sixty percent of wintering individuals were correctly assigned to their region of origin out of seven possible regions. Finally, we estimated the winter origins of breeding and migrant individuals and compared the resulting empirical distribution against the distribution that would be expected based on patterns of winter relative abundance. For breeding birds, the distribution of winter origins differed from expected only among males in the Yukon‐Kuskokwim (Y‐K) Delta and Nome, Alaska. Males in the Y‐K Delta originated overwhelmingly from western Mexico, while in Nome, there were fewer males from western North America and more from the Baja Peninsula than expected. An unexpectedly high proportion of migrants captured at a stopover site in the interior United States originated from eastern and southern wintering areas, while none originated from western North America. In general, we document substantial mixing between the breeding and wintering populations of both sexes, which will buffer the global population of western sandpipers from the effects of local habitat loss on both breeding and wintering grounds.