Increased rainfall variability and reduced rainfall amount decreases soil CO2 flux in a grassland ecosystem

Predicted climate changes in the US Central Plains include altered precipitation regimes with increased occurrence of growing season droughts and higher frequencies of extreme rainfall events. Changes in the amounts and timing of rainfall events will likely affect ecosystem processes, including those that control C cycling and storage. Soil carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux is an important component of C cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, and is strongly influenced by climate. While many studies have assessed the influence of soil water content on soil CO₂ flux, few have included experimental manipulation of rainfall amounts in intact ecosystems, and we know of no studies that have explicitly addressed the influence of the timing of rainfall events. In order to determine the responses of soil CO₂ flux to altered rainfall timing and amounts, we manipulated rainfall inputs to plots of native tallgrass prairie (Konza Prairie, Kansas, USA) over four growing seasons (1998–2001). Specifically, we altered the amounts and/or timing of growing season rainfall in a factorial combination that included two levels of rainfall amount (100% or 70% of naturally occurring rainfall quantity) and two temporal patterns of rain events (ambient timing or a 50% increase in length of dry intervals between events). The size of individual rain events in the altered timing treatment was adjusted so that the quantity of total growing season rainfall in the ambient and altered timing treatments was the same (i.e. fewer, but larger rainfall events characterized the altered timing treatment). Seasonal mean soil CO₂ flux decreased by 8% under reduced rainfall amounts, by 13% under altered rainfall timing, and by 20% when both were combined (P<0.01). These changes in soil CO₂ flux were consistent with observed changes in plant productivity, which was also reduced by both reduced rainfall quantity and altered rainfall timing. Soil CO₂ flux was related to both soil temperature and soil water content in regression analyses; together they explained as much as 64% of the variability in CO₂ flux across dates under ambient rainfall timing, but only 38–48% of the variability under altered rainfall timing, suggesting that other factors (e.g. substrate availability, plant or microbial stress) may limit CO₂ flux under a climate regime that includes fewer, larger rainfall events. An analysis of the temperature sensitivity of soil CO₂ flux indicated that temperature had a reduced effect (lower correlation and lower Q₁₀ values) under the reduced quantity and altered timing treatments. Recognition that changes in the timing of rainfall events may be as, or more, important than changes in rainfall amount in affecting soil CO₂ flux and other components of the carbon cycle highlights the complex nature of ecosystem responses to climate change in North American grasslands.     

Productivity responses to altered rainfall patterns in a C<Subscript>4</Subscript>-dominated grassland

Rainfall variability is a key driver of ecosystem structure and function in grasslands worldwide. Changes in rainfall patterns predicted by global climate models for the central United States are expected to cause lower and increasingly variable soil water availability, which may impact net primary production and plant species composition in native Great Plains grasslands. We experimentally altered the timing and quantity of growing season rainfall inputs by lengthening inter-rainfall dry intervals by 50%, reducing rainfall quantities by 30%, or both, compared to the ambient rainfall regime in a native tallgrass prairie ecosystem in northeastern Kansas. Over three growing seasons, increased rainfall variability caused by altered rainfall timing with no change in total rainfall quantity led to lower and more variable soil water content (0–30 cm depth), a ~10% reduction in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), increased root to shoot ratios, and greater canopy photon flux density at 30 cm above the soil surface. Lower total ANPP primarily resulted from reduced growth, biomass and flowering of subdominant warm-season C₄ grasses while productivity of the dominant C₄ grass Andropogon gerardii was relatively unresponsive. In general, vegetation responses to increased soil water content variability were at least equal to those caused by imposing a 30% reduction in rainfall quantity without altering the timing of rainfall inputs. Reduced ANPP most likely resulted from direct effects of soil moisture deficits on root activity, plant water status, and photosynthesis. Altered rainfall regimes are likely to be an important element of climate change scenarios in this grassland, and the nature of interactions with other climate change elements remains a significant challenge for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change.     

Contingent productivity responses to more extreme rainfall regimes across a grassland biome

Climate models predict, and empirical evidence confirms, that more extreme precipitation regimes are occurring in tandem with warmer atmospheric temperatures. These more extreme rainfall patterns are characterized by increased event size separated by longer within season drought periods and represent novel climatic conditions whose consequences for different ecosystem types are largely unknown. Here, we present results from an experiment in which more extreme rainfall patterns were imposed in three native grassland sites in the Central Plains Region of North America, USA. Along this 600 km precipitation–productivity gradient, there was strong sensitivity of temperate grasslands to more extreme growing season rainfall regimes, with responses of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) contingent on mean soil water levels for different grassland types. At the mesic end of the gradient (tallgrass prairie), longer dry intervals between events led to extended periods of below-average soil water content, increased plant water stress and reduced ANPP by 18%. The opposite response occurred at the dry end (semiarid steppe), where a shift to fewer, but larger, events increased periods of above-average soil water content, reduced seasonal plant water stress and resulted in a 30% increase in ANPP. At an intermediate mixed grass prairie site with high plant species richness, ANPP was most sensitive to more extreme rainfall regimes (70% increase). These results highlight the inherent complexity in predicting how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to forecast novel climate conditions as well as the difficulties in extending inferences from single site experiments across biomes. Even with no change in annual precipitation amount, ANPP responses in a relatively uniform physiographic region differed in both magnitude and direction in response to within season changes in rainfall event size/frequency.     

Increasing precipitation event size increases aboveground net primary productivity in a semi-arid grassland

Water availability is the primary constraint to aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in many terrestrial biomes, and it is an ecosystem driver that will be strongly altered by future climate change. Global circulation models predict a shift in precipitation patterns to growing season rainfall events that are larger in size but fewer in number. This “repackaging” of rainfall into large events with long intervening dry intervals could be particularly important in semi-arid grasslands because it is in marked contrast to the frequent but small events that have historically defined this ecosystem. We investigated the effect of more extreme rainfall patterns on ANPP via the use of rainout shelters and paired this experimental manipulation with an investigation of long-term data for ANPP and precipitation. Experimental plots (n = 15) received the long-term (30-year) mean growing season precipitation quantity; however, this amount was distributed as 12, six, or four events applied manually according to seasonal patterns for May–September. The long-term mean (1940–2005) number of rain events in this shortgrass steppe was 14 events, with a minimum of nine events in years of average precipitation. Thus, our experimental treatments pushed this system beyond its recent historical range of variability. Plots receiving fewer, but larger rain events had the highest rates of ANPP (184 ± 38 g m⁻²), compared to plots receiving more frequent rainfall (105 ± 24 g m⁻²). ANPP in all experimental plots was greater than long-term mean ANPP for this system (97 g m⁻²), which may be explained in part by the more even distribution of applied rain events. Soil moisture data indicated that larger events led to greater soil water content and likely permitted moisture penetration to deeper in the soil profile. These results indicate that semi-arid grasslands are capable of responding immediately and substantially to forecast shifts to more extreme precipitation patterns.     

The sensitivity of annual grassland carbon cycling to the quantity and timing of rainfall

Global climate models predict significant changes to the rainfall regimes of the grassland biome, where C cycling is particularly sensitive to the amount and timing of precipitation. We explored the effects of both natural interannual rainfall variability and experimental rainfall additions on net C storage and loss in annual grasslands. Soil respiration and net primary productivity (NPP) were measured in treatment and control plots over four growing seasons (water years, or WYs) that varied in wet‐season length and the quantity of rainfall. In treatment plots, we increased total rainfall by 50% above ambient levels and simulated one early‐ and one late‐season storm. The early‐ and late‐season rain events significantly increased soil respiration for 2–4 weeks after wetting, while augmentation of wet‐season rainfall had no significant effect. Interannual variability in precipitation had large and significant effects on C cycling. We observed a significant positive relationship between annual rainfall and aboveground NPP across the study (P=0.01, r²=0.69). Changes in the seasonal timing of rainfall significantly affected soil respiration. Abundant rainfall late in the wet season in WY 2004, a year with average total rainfall, led to greater net ecosystem C losses due to a ～50% increase in soil respiration relative to other years. Our results suggest that C cycling in annual grasslands will be less sensitive to changes in rainfall quantity and more affected by altered seasonal timing of rainfall, with a longer or later wet season resulting in significant C losses from annual grasslands.     

Unexpected patterns of sensitivity to drought in three semi-arid grasslands

Global climate models forecast an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including severe droughts. Based on multi-year relationships between precipitation amount and aboveground annual net primary production (ANPP), semi-arid grasslands are projected to be among the most sensitive ecosystems to changes in precipitation. To assess sensitivity to drought, as well as variability within the shortgrass steppe biome, we imposed moderate and severe rainfall reductions for two growing seasons in three undisturbed grasslands that varied in soil type and climate. We predicted strong drought-induced reductions in ANPP at all sites and greater sensitivity to drought in sites with lower average precipitation, consistent with continental-scale patterns. Identical experimental infrastructure at each site reduced growing season rainfall events by 50 or 80%, and significantly reduced average soil moisture in both years (by 21 and 46% of control levels, respectively). Despite reductions in soil moisture, ANPP responses varied unexpectedly-from no reduction in ANPP to a 51% decrease. Although sensitivity to drought was highest in the semi-arid grassland with lowest mean annual precipitation, patterns in responses to drought across these grasslands were also strongly related to rainfall event size. When growing season rainfall patterns were dominated by many smaller events, ANPP was significantly reduced by drought but not when rainfall patterns were characterized by large rain events. This interaction between drought sensitivity and rainfall event size suggests that ANPP responses to future droughts may be reduced if growing season rainfall regimes also become more extreme.     

Deepened winter snow cover enhances net ecosystem exchange and stabilizes plant community composition and productivity in a temperate grassland

Global warming has greatly altered winter snowfall patterns, and there is a trend towards increasing winter snow in semi‐arid regions in China. Winter snowfall is an important source of water during early spring in these water‐limited ecosystems, and it can also affect nutrient supply. However, we know little about how changes in winter snowfall will affect ecosystem productivity and plant community structure during the growing season. Here, we conducted a 5‐year winter snow manipulation experiment in a temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia. We measured ecosystem carbon flux from 2014 to 2018 and plant biomass and species composition from 2015 to 2018. We found that soil moisture increased under deepened winter snow in early growing season, particularly in deeper soil layers. Deepened snow increased the net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) and reduced intra‐ and inter‐annual variation in NEE. Deepened snow did not affect aboveground plant biomass (AGB) but significantly increased root biomass. This suggested that the enhanced NEE was allocated to the belowground, which improved water acquisition and thus contributed to greater stability in NEE in deep‐snow plots. Interestingly, the AGB of grasses in the control plots declined over time, resulting in a shift towards a forb‐dominated system. Similar declines in grass AGB were also observed at three other locations in the region over the same time frame and are attributed to 4 years of below‐average precipitation during the growing season. By contrast, grass AGB was stabilized under deepened winter snow and plant community composition remained unchanged. Hence, our study demonstrates that increased winter snowfall may stabilize arid grassland systems by reducing resource competition, promoting coexistence between plant functional groups, which ultimately mitigates the impacts of chronic drought during the growing season.     

Increased Soil Frost Versus Summer Drought as Drivers of Plant Biomass Responses to Reduced Precipitation: Results from a Globally Coordinated Field Experiment

Reduced precipitation treatments often are used in field experiments to explore the effects of drought on plant productivity and species composition. However, in seasonally snow-covered regions reduced precipitation also reduces snow cover, which can increase soil frost depth, decrease minimum soil temperatures and increase soil freeze–thaw cycles. Therefore, in addition to the effects of reduced precipitation on plants via drought, freezing damage to overwintering plant tissues at or below the soil surface could further affect plant productivity and relative species abundances during the growing season. We examined the effects of both reduced rainfall (via rain-out shelters) and reduced snow cover (via snow removal) at 13 sites globally (primarily grasslands) within the framework of the International Drought Experiment, a coordinated distributed experiment. Plant cover was estimated at the species level, and aboveground biomass was quantified at the functional group level. Among sites, we observed a negative correlation between the snow removal effect on minimum soil temperature and plant biomass production the next growing season. Three sites exhibited significant rain-out shelter effects on plant productivity, but there was no correlation among sites between the rain-out shelter effect on minimum soil moisture and plant biomass. There was no interaction between snow removal and rain-out shelters for plant biomass, although these two factors only exhibited significant effects simultaneously for a single site. Overall, our results reveal that reduced snowfall, when it decreases minimum soil temperatures, can be an important component of the total effect of reduced precipitation on plant productivity.     

Interactive Effects of Ungulate Herbivores, Soil Fertility, and Variable Rainfall on Ecosystem Processes in a Semi-arid Savanna

Large herbivores can both positively and negatively affect primary productivity and rates of nutrient cycling in different ecosystems. Positive effects of grazers in grasslands have been attributed to migratory behavior of the dominant ungulate species and soil fertility. We studied the effects of grazers on aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and N cycling on central Kenyan rangeland characterized by intense, chronic grazing by a mixed community of cattle and resident native ungulates. Exclosure studies conducted at high and low levels of soil fertility showed that both soil fertility and annual rainfall patterns mediate the effects of grazers on ANPP and N cycling. In a low-rainfall year with short (1 month) growing seasons, grazers reduced aboveground productivity regardless of soil nutrient availability. However, in a high-rainfall year with a 5-month growing season, grazers increased ANPP on nutrient-rich glades and suppressed ANPP on nutrient-poor bushland sites. Concomitant studies of grazer effects on N cycling revealed complex interactions with the seasonal pattern of N-mineralization and inorganic N availability. Grazers increased the size of the inorganic N pool available to plants at the onset of the growing season, particularly in nutrient-rich glades. However, grazers also decreased N mineralization rates at all sites early in the growing season. Measures of N availability via ion-exchange resin bags suggested that the combined effects of grazers on inorganic N pool fluctuations and N-mineralization rates resulted in a net increase in N availability at glade sites and a net decrease in N availability at bushland sites. The net effect of grazers on soil N availability mirrored grazer effects on ANPP in the high-rainfall year. Overall, our results suggest that grazer effects on N dynamics are closely linked to effects on productivity and resilience to drought. Furthermore, even under optimal conditions of high soil fertility and above-average rainfall, grazer promotion of ANPP in this chronically grazed system dominated by resident ungulates was small compared to systems dominated by migratory ungulates.     

The Influence of Altered Rainfall Regimes on Early Season N Partitioning Among Early Phenology Annual Plants,a Late Phenology Shrub,and Microbes in a Semi-arid Ecosystem

In Mediterranean-type ecosystems, nitrogen (N) accumulates in soil during dry summer months and rapidly becomes available during early season rain events. The availability of early season N could depend on the size of rainfall events, soil microbial activity, and phenology of the plant community. However, it is poorly understood how precipitation patterns affect the fate of early season N. Microbes and plants with early phenology may compete strongly for early season N but theory suggests that microbial N storage can meet plant N demands later in the season. Using a ¹⁵N tracer and rainfall manipulation we investigated the fate of early season N. N allocation patterns differed substantially between microbes, early and late phenology plants. As expected early phenology annuals and microbes took up ¹⁵N, within 1 day, whereas a late-phenology shrub allocated ¹⁵N to leaves later in the season. We saw no evidence for microbial storage of early season N; the peak of ¹⁵N in shrub leaves did not coincide with detectable levels of ¹⁵N in the microbial biomass or labile soil pool. This suggests that shrubs were able to access early season N, store and allocate it for growth later in the season. Although we saw no evidence of microbial N storage, N retention in soil organic matter (SOM) was high and microbes may play an important role in sequestering N to SOM. Plant N uptake did not respond significantly to 1 year of rainfall manipulation, but microbes were sensitive to dry conditions. 1 year after ¹⁵N addition shrubs had resorbed up to half of the N from leaves whereas N in annuals remained as dead leaf litter. Differences in end-of-season N partitioning between dead and living biomass in the two vegetation types suggest that plant species composition could affect N availability in the following growing season, but it may take several years of altered precipitation patterns to produce rainfall-dependent changes.