高寒草甸植物物候对温度变化的响应

植物物候是植物为适应其生长环境而呈现的规律性变化,是气候变化的指示器。为了解高寒植物物候对温度变化的响应,利用1997—2010年青海湖海北高寒草原生态监测站群落优势种矮嵩草物候观测资料和同时段的气象资料,应用偏最小二乘(PLS)回归定量分析了植物物候期变化特征、趋势及其与气温间的相互关系。结果表明:①1997—2010年青海湖地区年均温度总体上升,倾向率为0.5℃/10a,其中年均最高温度和最低温度呈现出非对称型变化,最低温度显著升高且高于年均温升幅,倾向率为0.7℃/10a(P0.05),而年均最高温度无明显变化。②1997—2010年间,矮嵩草平均返青期和枯黄期分别为4月18日和10月2日,矮嵩草返青期推迟,枯黄期提前,生长季长度缩短。③影响矮嵩草返青的关键时期为每年的1月和3—4月,1月温度升高影响植物休眠进程进而延迟返青,而3—4月温度升高有利于热量积累使返青提前;影响矮嵩草枯黄的关键时期为7月上中旬和8月,期间温度升高使枯黄期提前。④根据PLS分析和相关分析,最低温度在各关键时期内显著影响植物物候,而最高温度仅在8月对枯黄期影响通过显著性检验,因此最低温度是影响高寒草地矮嵩草物候期的关键因子。     

青藏高原那曲高山嵩草草甸植物物候对增温的异步响应

植物物候对气候变暖的响应是全球气候变化研究的重要内容。目前,高海拔生态系统植物物候对气候变暖响应的研究仍然较少。该研究依托西藏那曲高寒草地生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站布设的梯度增温实验,分别于2015、2017、2018和2021年对模拟增温下优势物种高山嵩草(Kobresia pygmaea)和钉柱委陵菜(Potentilla saundersiana)返青期、现蕾期和开花期等表征植物物候的指标进行了观测,以期揭示增温下藏北高寒草甸植物物候变化机制。结果表明:随着温度升高,高寒草甸中优势植物物候具有不同的变化趋势。高山嵩草返青、现蕾和开花物候期的推迟幅度与温度升高幅度呈正相关关系;钉柱委陵菜返青、现蕾和开花时间随着温度上升表现为先提前后推迟;这表明高寒草甸植物物候对增温产生异步响应。此外,长期增温下的藏北高寒草甸优势种的物候变化均显示出了延迟效应。结构方程归因分析发现,空气温度升高促使高山嵩草返青时间推迟;低水平增温可以促进钉柱委陵菜物候提前,而随着温度继续升高其物候响应发生逆转,土壤水分在决定物候对气候变暖响应的幅度和方向上具有关键作用。该研究结果揭示了藏北高寒草甸优势植物物候响...     

青海海北地区矮嵩草草甸生物量和能量的分配

 此项研究工作于1980年在海北高寒草甸生态系统定位站进行。本文研究了青藏高原地区分布面积广、草质优良,在畜牧业生产中有重要意义的矮嵩草草甸的生物量和它的能量分配关系,测定了地上,地下生物量和不同物候期主要植物类群的热值含量。研究结果表明：矮嵩草草甸生物量的季节动态较为明显,地上生物量随生长季节的水热条件和植物的生长发育阶段而变化,9月初地上生物量达到峰值(296.66g／m2),此后生物量逐渐减少,到枯黄前而停止;地下根系生物量在返青期较高,生长旺盛期最低,枯黄期最高,这同植物生长发育阶段的物质运转有关。矮嵩草草甸主要植物类群的热值以生长旺盛期最高,枯黄期次之,返青期较低;各类草的热值,以莎草类最高,禾草类次之,杂类草最低。矮嵩草草甸总初级生产量为909.49g／m2·年,其中地上为296.66g／m2·年,地下为596.67g／m2·年,枯枝落叶为16.16g／m2·年。群落在不同生长期所固定的太阳能数值不一,以枯黄前所固定的太阳能为最多,生长期整个群落的光能利用率为0.295%。     

实验增温对藏北高寒草甸植物繁殖物候的影响

全球气候变暖对高寒和极地地区的植物物候产生强烈的影响。该研究主要关注增温条件下藏北高寒草甸不同功能型植物繁殖时间(生殖物候)的改变。实验采用开顶箱式增温方法, 对3个主要功能群浅根-早花、浅根-中花和深根-晚花植物的现蕾、开花、结实时间进行观测。研究结果表明: (1)增温导致了土壤水分胁迫, 显著推迟了浅根-早花植物高山嵩草(Kobresia pygmaea)的繁殖时间; (2)增温显著提前了浅根-中花植物钉柱委陵菜(Potentilla saundersiana)和深根晚花植物紫花针茅(Stipa purpurea)和矮羊茅(Festuca coelestis)的繁殖时间; (3)增温没有显著影响浅根-中花植物楔叶委陵菜(Potentilla cuneata)和深根-晚花植物无茎黄鹌菜(Youngia simulatrix)的繁殖时间; (4)增温缩短了3种类型植物的开花持续时间。这些结果显示增温改变了藏北高寒草甸群落中多数物种的繁殖时间, 这预示着在未来更热更干的生长季, 青藏高原高寒草甸系统的植物物候格局可能会被重塑。     

长江源区高山嵩草物候与生物量动态及其对气候变化的响应

利用青藏高原腹地江河源头的曲麻莱县气象站1994～2004年观测的高寒嵩草草甸优势种高山嵩草的生育期、高度、产量等指标与同期气象资料,通过定量分析研究较长时段的物候及生物量变化特征,以揭示其对气候变化的响应.结果表明:(1)高山嵩草返青期和开花期的变化总体均呈"W"形,在区域气候变暖背景下,植物物候表现为返青期提前,开花期和枯黄期推迟,整个生长季延长.(2)高山嵩草的生物量变化在10年间呈明显的波动趋势,各月最高生物量均出现在1999年,最低生物量出现在1994年.(3)高山嵩草物候期与生长季各月气温呈显著的正相关关系(P<0.001),与月降水量呈弱正相关关系(P>0.05);月均气温成为本区草本植物发芽生长的先决条件,且6～8月气温与植物萌动的相关性最大.(4)生长季6～8月高山嵩草生物量鲜重和干重均与月均气温呈显著正相关,鲜重仅与月降水量呈显著正相关关系,在青藏高原的高寒区,温度比降水对植物产量的影响更大.     

青藏高原高寒草甸植物群落结构和功能对氮、磷、钾添加的短期响应

对中国科学院海北高寒草甸生态系统定位站的矮嵩草草甸水肥样地进行了氮、磷、钾及其组合的施肥处理,研究了施肥对植物群落结构和功能的影响。结果表明:(1)施肥使矮嵩草草甸植物群落物种丰富度减少,不同施肥处理下物种丰富度大小分别为:对照钾磷氮氮磷磷钾氮钾氮磷钾。(2)在氮磷配合施肥处理下,矮嵩草草甸植物群落Shannon-Wiener指数显著高于对照,而其它施肥处理对Shannon-Wiener指数影响不显著。(3)在同一施肥处理下,禾草类和莎草类的重要值明显高于豆科和杂类草功能群,不同施肥处理使禾草、莎草、豆科植物的重要值增加,而杂类草重要值减少。(4)与对照相比,不同施肥(除钾外)处理可不同程度的增加植物群落的高度。(5)除钾、磷钾养分添加对矮嵩草草甸地上生物量的影响与对照差异不显著外,其它养分及其组合添加都极显著增加了群落地上生物量,且大小顺序依次为氮磷氮磷钾磷氮钾氮磷钾钾对照。(6)施用不同种类的肥料后,矮嵩草草甸各功能群地上生物量的比例变化明显,禾草和莎草的比例均增加,杂类草的比例减少,而豆科植物无规律性。(7)熵值法综合评价短期施肥处理对矮嵩草草甸群落的影响表明,氮磷、氮磷钾配合施肥是青藏高原高寒草甸最佳施肥选择。     

模拟增温改变青藏高原植物繁殖物候及植株高度

气候变化显著影响了高寒植物物候期及生长模式, 从而改变了高寒生态系统功能。而高寒植物物候期和生长状况对气候变化的响应程度, 与其自身资源分配策略有关。为了更好地探究气候变化下高寒植物繁殖物候及生长的规律, 该研究以青藏高原高寒草甸为研究对象, 按生物量从高到低选取15种常见植物, 其生物量之和占样地总生物量80%以上, 采用红外辐射器模拟增温的方法, 利用同质园实验, 观测无种间竞争条件下, 增温2年间植物返青、现蕾、开花以及结实物候, 并监测了植株高度。研究结果表明: (1)在功能群水平上, 增温使豆科类植物的返青、现蕾和开花时间分别显著提前了(8.21 ± 1.81)、(9.14 ± 2.41)和(10.14 ± 2.05) d, 使其开花持续时间显著延长了(6.14 ± 1.52) d, 而增温对其他功能群物候事件无显著影响。增温对高寒植物物候的影响存在种间及年际间差异, 但总体上增温使大多数高寒植物繁殖物候提前并且开花持续时间延长, 将更多的资源更多地分配到繁殖生长上。(2)增温显著降低了杂类草植物的植株高度(平均降低(3.58 ± 0.96) cm), 但对豆科类、禾草类及莎草类功能群植株高度没有显著影响。 增温对高寒植物植株高度的影响存在显著的种间差异以及年际差异。综上所述, 未来气候变暖背景下, 青藏高原高寒植物群落可能更早进入繁殖阶段, 从而降低在营养生长上的资源分配。另外, 由于各物种繁殖能力和营养生长对温度变化响应的差异, 气候变暖将导致高寒植物群落中各物种盖度的变化, 进而改变群落物种组成, 从而影响高寒生态系统的功能。     

物候变化对北美温带落叶阔叶林生态系统生产力的影响

数据源、时间范围、空间尺度等的差异导致许多物候变化对陆地生态系统碳收支影响的研究缺少可比性。该文基于4级碳通量填充数据, 采用相对阈值方法提取了两个北美典型温带阔叶林站Harvard Forest (HF)和University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS)共20年的物候参数(返青期、枯黄期和生长季长度), 并研究了物候变化对生态系统生产力的影响。结果表明: 1)生长季长度的延长对年累积总初级生产力(GPP)有显著贡献, 但由于呼吸作用(RE)的干扰, 生长季长度变化对年净生态系统生产力(NEP)的影响并不显著; 2)返青期的提前对上半年生态系统总初级生产力的贡献最为显著, 二者的相关系数分别为0.76 (HF)和0.93 (UMBS); 3)枯黄期的延迟对生产力的影响并不显著; 4)随着春季返青期的提前或秋季枯黄期的延迟, 上、下半年GPP和RE的累积量虽均有增加趋势, 但由于各自增加的幅度不确定, 导致年NEP与二者的响应关系复杂。     

藏北高原典型植被样区物候变化及其对气候变化的响应

植被物候作为陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应和反馈的重要指示,已成为区域或全球生态环境领域研究的热点。基于非对称高斯拟合方法重建了2001—2010年MODIS EVI时间序列影像,利用动态阈值法提取藏北高原植被覆盖2001—2010年每年关键物候参数。选取研究区内东部高寒灌丛草甸、中部高寒草甸及西部高寒草原和高寒荒漠4种典型植被类型,并结合附近的4个气象台站气候资料,分析典型植被物候在近10a对关键气候因子的响应特征。研究结果表明:(1)4种不同典型植被的物候特征(EVImax降低、返青期延后和生长季长度缩短)均表现出高寒灌丛草甸→高寒草甸→高寒草原→高寒荒漠草原的过渡;(2)藏北高原近10a的年平均气温及春、夏、冬三个季度的平均气温均呈显著升高的趋势,升温幅度在0.8—3.9℃/10a,降水减少趋势不显著,在这种水热条件下典型植被均表现出返青提前(7.2—15.5d/10a)、生长季延长(8.4—19.2d/10a)的趋势,而枯黄出现时间为年际间自然波动;(3)高寒灌丛草甸EVImax主要受春季降水量和气温影响,且降水的影响程度大于气温;对高寒草甸植被而言,春、夏季的气温和降水均有较大的影响;而高寒草原和高寒荒漠草原主要受夏季平均气温和降水量影响;(4)高寒灌丛草甸的返青时间主要受前一年秋季降水量的影响,相关系数达-0.579;而高寒草甸、高寒草原和高寒荒漠草原主要受春季平均气温影响,高寒荒漠草原的特征最为明显(r=-0.559)。     

青海海北植物群落类型与土壤线虫群落相互关系

土壤线虫是良好的指示生物, 是植物群落演替的重要驱动力, 其生态功能影响着生态系统正常生态效应的发挥。该研究以海北矮生嵩草(Kobresia humilis)草甸、西藏嵩草(Kobresia tibetica)沼泽化草甸、暗褐薹草(Carex atrofusca)沼泽化草甸和金露梅(Potentilla fruticosa)灌丛4种不同植物群落类型的土壤线虫为研究对象, 研究不同植物群落类型下的土壤线虫群落组成、分布特征、物种多样性及其营养类群组成, 分析植物类群结构与土壤线虫群落之间的相关性。主要研究结果: (1)在4种植物群落土壤样本中共分离线虫3 800条, 分属于2纲5目15科30属, 线虫平均个体密度为每100 g干土580条, 随土壤深度增加而递减, 具有明显的表聚性。不同植物群落间的土壤线虫群落组成存在一定差异, 矮生嵩草草甸0-40 cm土壤线虫总数(1 811条·392.5 cm^-3)显著高于其他植物群落类型, 暗褐薹草沼泽化草甸的土壤线虫总数最少(324条·392.5 cm^-3)。4种植物群落下土壤线虫的优势属和营养类群组成存在差异, 这种差异在矮生嵩草草甸与暗褐薹草沼泽化草甸之间表现得尤为明显。 (2)不同植物群落下土壤线虫的多样性指数(H′)和均匀度指数(J′)均为金露梅灌丛最高, 暗褐薹草沼泽化草甸最低, 其两种植物群落间H′差异显著, 而优势度指数(λ)相反, 为暗褐薹草沼泽化草甸最高, 金露梅灌丛最低。表明金露梅灌丛土壤线虫群落多样性最高, 暗褐薹草沼泽化草甸土壤线虫群落多样性最低, 土壤线虫群落趋于单一化。4种植物群落土壤有机质的分解途径均以细菌通道为主。西藏嵩草沼泽化草甸的瓦斯乐斯卡指数(WI)显著高于矮生嵩草草甸, 表明从高寒沼泽化草甸过渡到高寒灌丛、高寒草甸, 土壤肥力不断降低, 沼泽化草甸有利于食微生物线虫的生长。暗褐薹草沼泽化草甸的植物寄生线虫指数(PPI)、成熟度指数(MI)均表现为最低, 表明其生态系统的成熟度较低, 这与暗褐薹草沼泽化草甸土壤含水量较高有关。不同植物群落下的富集指数(EI)、结构指数(SI)均为暗褐薹草沼泽化草甸最高, 由此可以看出暗褐薹草沼泽化草甸的食物网相对连通性较高, 食物链较长, 食物网的阻力相对较小。(3)主成分分析(PCA)结果显示4种植物群落最大贡献属不同。相关性分析表明: 食细菌性线虫数量与西藏嵩草沼泽化草甸有显著的正相关关系; 金露梅灌丛的植物多样性与线虫的H′、J′有显著的负相关关系, 与λ则有显著的正相关关系; WI与矮生嵩草草甸的植物多样性有显著的正相关关系, PPI与矮生嵩草草甸的物种多样性指数有显著的负相关关系。综上所述, 植物群落深刻地影响着土壤线虫群落的多样性。     

Predictors of plant phenology in a diverse high‐latitude alpine landscape: growth forms and topography

Question: Different plant growth forms may have distinctly different functioning in ecosystems. Association of phenological patterns with growth form will therefore help elucidate the role of phenology in an ecosystem. We ask whether growth forms of common vascular plants differ in terms of vegetative and flowering phenology, and if such phenological differences are consistent across environmental gradients caused by landscape‐scale topography. Location: A high‐latitude alpine landscape in Finnmark County, Norway (70°N). Methods: We assessed vegetative and flowering phenology repeatedly in five growth forms represented by 11 common vascular plant species across an altitudinal gradient and among differing slope aspects. Results: Species phenology clustered well according to growth form, and growth form strongly explained variation in both flowering and vegetative phenology. Altitude and aspect were poor predictors of phenological variation. Vegetative phenology of the growth forms, ranked from slowest to fastest, was in the order evergreen shrubs <sedges‐deciduous shrubs <grasses <forbs, while a reverse ranking was found for flowering phenology. Conclusion: Growth form‐specific phenological patterns are associated with fundamentally different abilities for resource acquisition and resource conservation. The weak effect of landscape‐scale topographic factors indicates that variation within growth forms is mainly influenced by local environmental factors not accounted for in this study. On the basis of these results, we argue that growth forms should be considered as predictors of phenology together with the customary use of topography and normalized difference vegetation index, especially when assessing the role of phenology in an ecosystem.     

Field evidence for earlier leaf-out dates in alpine grassland on the eastern Tibetan Plateau from 1990 to 2006

Worldwide, many plant species are experiencing an earlier onset of spring phenophases due to climate warming. Rapid recent temperature increases on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have triggered changes in the spring phenology of the local vegetation. However, remote sensing studies of the land surface phenology have reached conflicting interpretations about green-up patterns observed on the TP since the mid-1990s. We investigated this issue using field phenological observations from 1990 to 2006, for 11 dominant plants on the TP at the levels of species, families (Gramineae—grasses and Cyperaceae—sedges) and vegetation communities (alpine meadow and alpine steppe). We found a significant trend of earlier leaf-out dates for one species (Koeleria cristata). The leaf-out dates of both Gramineae and Cyperaceae had advanced (the latter significantly, starting an average of 9 days later per year than the former), but the correlation between them was significant. The leaf-out dates of both vegetation communities also advanced, but the pattern was only significant in the alpine meadow. This study provides the first field evidence of advancement in spring leaf phenology on the TP and suggests that the phenology of the alpine steppe can differ from that of the alpine meadow. These findings will be useful for understanding ecosystem responses to climate change and for grassland management on the TP.     

East versus West: contrasts in phenological patterns?

Aim To examine whether change in the timing of a large number of phenological events and their response to temperature differs between trophic levels during the period 1988–2008. Location In the vicinity of Kazan, Tatarstan Republic, Russia (55°45′ N, 49°08′ E). Methods Observations of the dates of first events of 22 plant phases, 8 insect phases, 3 herpetofauna phases and 26 migrant bird phases were examined using regression to assess changes over time and response to temperature. Differences between trophic levels were assessed using ANOVA. Results In comparison to studies from western Europe, relatively few phenological series (15) revealed a significant advance over time, but a much larger number (37), including all the herpetofauna and nearly all the plants, showed a response to temperature. Trends in birds were, on average, twice as great as those for plants, but plants had a significantly greater temperature response. Over the study period local temperatures had not risen significantly but some phenological change was still evident. Main conclusions Phenological change has been less marked in the eastern edge of Europe than in western and central Europe. This is compatible with a lack of significant local warming during the study period. A large number of species show strong responses to temperature so will be expected to advance if/when local temperatures do increase. In contrast to results from elsewhere in Europe, early events were not the most temperature responsive, suggesting local adaptation preventing precocious behaviour and the consequent dangers of sub‐zero temperatures.     

Use of digital cameras for phenological observations

Vegetation phenology such as the onset of green-up and senescence is strongly controlled by climate and other environmental factors, and in turn affects the terrestrial carbon balance. Therefore, phenological observation is important as an indicator of global warming and for estimation of the terrestrial carbon balance. Because phenological responses differ from species to species, precise monitoring from the species scale to the global scale is required. In this study, we analyzed images from digital cameras, which have proliferated in recent years, to investigate their utility as remote sensors. We collected daily images taken by digital cameras in national parks across Japan over 8 years in wetland mixed deciduous forest, and evergreen broadleaved forest. Values of red, green, and blue (RGB) channels in each pixel within images were extracted, and a vegetation green excess index (2G-RBi) was calculated to detect phenology. The time series of 2G-RBi showed clear phenological patterns of each vegetation type in each year at the species or community scale. Even physiological damage due to a typhoon was detected. The dates of green-up were estimated easily and objectively from the second derivative of 2G-RBi, and a trend in yearly green-up dates of various types of vegetation was demonstrated. Furthermore, a strong correlation between interannual variations in green-up dates and local spring temperature was found, and the sensitivity of green-up date to temperature was revealed. The results suggest the utility of digital cameras for phenological observations at precise temporal and spatial resolutions, despite a year-to-year drift of color balance of camera as a technical device. As a form of near-surface remote sensing, digital cameras could obtain significant ecological information. Establishing camera networks could help us understand phenological responses at a wide range of scales.     

Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf‐out phenology

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf‐out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6–8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf‐out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf‐out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions.     

Remote sensing of larch phenological cycle and analysis of relationships with climate in the Alpine region

This research aims at developing a remote sensing technique for monitoring the interannual variability of the European larch phenological cycle in the Alpine region of Aosta Valley (Northern Italy) and to evaluate its relationships with climatic factors. Phenological field observations were conducted in eight test sites from 2005 to 2007 to determine the dates of completion of different phenological phases. MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) 250 m 16‐days normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series were fitted with double logistic curves and the dates corresponding to different features of the curves were determined. Comparison with field data showed that the features of the fitted NDVI curve that allowed the best estimate of the start and end of the growing season were the zeroes of its third derivative (MAE of 6 and 4 days, respectively). The start and end of season were also estimated with the spring warming (SW) and growing season index (GSI) phenological models. MODIS start and end of season dates generally agreed with those obtained by the SW and GSI climate‐driven phenological models. However, phenological models provided erroneous results when applied in years with anomalous meteorological conditions. The relationships between interannual variability of the larch phenological cycle and climate were investigated by comparing the mean start and end of season yearly anomalies with air temperature anomalies. A strong linear relationship (R²=0.91) was found between mean spring temperatures and mean start of season dates, with an increase of 1 °C in mean spring temperature leading to a 7‐day anticipation of mean larch bud‐burst date. Leaf coloring dates were found to be best related with mean September temperature (R²=0.77), but with higher spring temperatures appearing to lead to earlier leaf coloring.     

沈阳城市森林常见树种的物候特征

城市绿化树种的物候配置是城市园林的一个重要组成部分。本文以沈阳城市森林常见树种为对象,利用6年的物候观测数据,绘出了28种主要乔灌木的物候谱。分析各物候现象之间关系,将其划分成4大组:萌动展叶现象组、叶变色现象组、落叶现象组和花果现象组;并根据叶变色和开花早晚对其进行聚类分组,为城市森林树种选择、树种组成和效益评价,提供科学依据。     

Effects of climatic change on the phenology of butterflies in the northwest Mediterranean Basin

Phenological changes in response to climatic warming have been detected across a wide range of organisms. Butterflies stand out as one of the most popular groups of indicators of climatic change, given that, firstly, they are poikilothermic and, secondly, have been the subject of thorough monitoring programmes in several countries for a number of decades. Here we provide for the first time strong evidence of phenological change as a consequence of recent climatic warming in butterflies at a Spanish site in the northwest Mediterranean Basin. By means of the widely used Butterfly Monitoring Scheme methodology, three different phenological parameters were analysed for the most common species to test for trends over time and relationships with temperature and precipitation. Between 1988 and 2002, there was a tendency for earlier first appearance dates in all 17 butterfly species tested, and significant advances in mean flight dates in 8 out of 19 species. On the other hand, the shape of the curve of adult emergence did not show any regular pattern. These changes paralleled an increase of 1–1.5°C in mean February, March and June temperatures. Likewise, a correlation analysis indicated the strong negative effect of spring temperature on phenological parameters (i.e. higher temperatures tended to produce phenological advances), and the opposite effect of precipitation in certain months. In addition, there was some evidence to indicate that phenological responses may differ between taxonomic lineages or species with similar diets. We discuss the consequences that these changes may have on species' population abundances, especially given the expected increase in aridity in the Mediterranean Basin caused by current climatic warming. We predict that varying degrees of phenological flexibility may account for differences in species' responses and, for multivoltine species, predict strong selection favouring local seasonal adaptations such as diapause phenomena or migratory behaviour.     

内蒙古克氏针茅草原植物物候及其与气候因子关系

 植物物候作为气候变化敏感的生物圈指示计, 已经成为全球变化研究的热点。利用1985~2002年地面物候观测数据, 构建了内蒙古克氏针茅(Stipa krylovii)草原植物物候的时间序列谱, 并分析了植物物候的时间变异与气候因子之间的相关关系。结果表明: 1) 从1985~2002年内蒙古克氏针茅草原的气候朝着暖干趋势发展, 主要表现在春、夏气温的显著性增加与秋季(9月)降水的显著性减少; 2) 主要植物物候的变化整体呈返青期推后其它物候期提前趋势; 3) 植物生长盛期(7、8月)对气候变化最敏感; 4) 光照和温度是影响内蒙古克氏针茅草原植物物候格局的主要因素, 年内最寒冷的1月月均温和2、3月的光照对春季返青期具有负效应, 而其它物候期与7、8月的光照则呈显著的负相关关系, 6、7月的降水对发育盛期的花序形成、抽穗与开花具有显著的负效应, 8、9月的降水量能显著推后枯黄期的结束, 从而有利于生长季的延长。