How traits shape trees: new approaches for detecting character state‐dependent lineage diversification

Biologists have long sought to understand the processes underlying disparities in clade size across the tree of life and the extent to which such clade size differences can be attributed to the evolution of particular traits. The association of certain character states with species‐rich clades suggests that trait evolution can lead to increased diversification, but such a pattern could also arise due other processes, such as directional trait evolution. Recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods have provided new statistical approaches for distinguishing between these intertwined and potentially confounded macroevolutionary processes. Here, we review the historical development of methods for detecting state‐dependent diversification and explore what new methods have revealed about classic examples of traits that affect diversification, including evolutionary dead ends, key innovations and geographic traits. Applications of these methods thus far collectively suggest that trait diversity commonly arises through the complex interplay between transition, speciation and extinction rates and that long hypothesized evolutionary dead ends and key innovations are instead often cases of directional trends in trait evolution.     

Exploring the tempo of species diversification in legumes

Whatever criteria are used to measure evolutionary success – species numbers, geographic range, ecological abundance, ecological and life history diversity, background diversification rates, or the presence of rapidly evolving clades – the legume family is one of the most successful lineages of flowering plants. Despite this, we still know rather little about the dynamics of lineage and species diversification across the family through the Cenozoic, or about the underlying drivers of diversification. There have been few attempts to estimate net species diversification rates or underlying speciation and extinction rates for legume clades, to test whether among-lineage variation in diversification rates deviates from null expectations, or to locate species diversification rate shifts on specific branches of the legume phylogenetic tree. In this study, time-calibrated phylogenetic trees for a set of species-rich legume clades – Calliandra, Indigofereae, Lupinus, Mimosa and Robinieae – and for the legume family as a whole, are used to explore how we might approach these questions. These clades are analysed using recently developed maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods to detect species diversification rate shifts and test for among-lineage variation in speciation, extinction and net diversification rates. Possible explanations for rate shifts in terms of extrinsic factors and/or intrinsic trait evolution are discussed. In addition, several methodological issues and limitations associated with these analyses are highlighted emphasizing the potential to improve our understanding of the evolutionary dynamics of legume diversification by using much more densely sampled phylogenetic trees that integrate information across broad taxonomic, geographical and temporal levels.     

Correlates of diversification in the plant clade Dipsacales: geographic movement and evolutionary innovations

We explore patterns of diversification in the plant clades Adoxaceae and Valerianaceae (within Dipsacales), evaluating correlations between biogeographic change (i.e., movements into new areas), morphological change (e.g., the origin of putative key innovations associated with vegetative and reproductive characters), and shifts in rates of diversification. Our findings indicate that rates of diversification in these plants tend to be less tightly correlated with the evolution of morphological innovations but instead exhibit a pronounced correlation with movement into new geographic areas, particularly the dispersal of lineages into new mountainous regions. The interdependence among apparent novelties (arising from their nested phylogenetic distribution) and the correlation between morphological and biogeographic change suggests a complex history of diversification in Dipsacales. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of incorporating biogeographic history in studies of diversification rates and in the study of geographic gradients in species richness. Furthermore, these results argue against a simple deterministic relationship between dispersal and diversification: like other factors that may influence the probability of speciation and/or extinction, the impact of dispersal on diversification rates depends on being in the right place at the right time.     

Diversity Dynamics in Nymphalidae Butterflies: Effect of Phylogenetic Uncertainty on Diversification Rate Shift Estimates

The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution.     

The shape and temporal dynamics of phylogenetic trees arising from geographic speciation

Phylogenetic trees often depart from the expectations of stochastic models, exhibiting imbalance in diversification among lineages and slowdowns in the rate of lineage accumulation through time. Such departures have led to a widespread perception that ecological differences among species or adaptation and subsequent niche filling are required to explain patterns of diversification. However, a key element missing from models of diversification is the geographical context of speciation and extinction. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of geographic range evolution and cladogenesis, where speciation arises via vicariance or peripatry, and explore the effects of these processes on patterns of diversification. We compare the results with those observed in 41 reconstructed avian trees. Our model shows that nonconstant rates of speciation and extinction are emergent properties of the apportioning of geographic ranges that accompanies speciation. The dynamics of diversification exhibit wide variation, depending on the mode of speciation, tendency for range expansion, and rate of range evolution. By varying these parameters, the model is able to capture many, but not all, of the features exhibited by birth-death trees and extant bird clades. Under scenarios with relatively stable geographic ranges, strong slowdowns in diversification rates are produced, with faster rates of range dynamics leading to constant or accelerating rates of apparent diversification. A peripatric model of speciation with stable ranges also generates highly unbalanced trees typical of bird phylogenies but fails to produce realistic range size distributions among the extant species. Results most similar to those of a birth-death process are reached under a peripatric speciation scenario with highly volatile range dynamics. Taken together, our results demonstrate that considering the geographical context of speciation and extinction provides a more conservative null model of diversification and offers a very different perspective on the phylogenetic patterns expected in the absence of ecology.     

Phylogenetic origins of local-scale diversity patterns and the causes of Amazonian megadiversity

What explains the striking variation in local species richness across the globe and the remarkable diversity of rainforest sites in Amazonia? Here, we apply a novel phylogenetic approach to these questions, using treefrogs (Hylidae) as a model system. Hylids show dramatic variation in local richness globally and incredible local diversity in Amazonia. We find that variation in local richness is not explained primarily by climatic factors, rates of diversification (speciation and extinction) nor morphological variation. Instead, local richness patterns are explained predominantly by the timing of colonization of each region, and Amazonian megadiversity is linked to the long-term sympatry of multiple clades in that region. Our results also suggest intriguing interactions between clade diversification, trait evolution and the accumulation of local richness. Specifically, sympatry between clades seems to slow diversification and trait evolution, but prevents neither the accumulation of local richness over time nor the co-occurrence of similar species.     

Do Mediterranean‐type ecosystems have a common history?—Insights from the Buckthorn family (Rhamnaceae)

Mediterranean‐type ecosystems (MTEs) are remarkable in their species richness and endemism, but the processes that have led to this diversity remain enigmatic. Here, we hypothesize that continent‐dependent speciation and extinction rates have led to disparity in diversity between the five MTEs of the world: the Cape, California, Mediterranean Basin, Chile, and Western Australia. To test this hypothesis, we built a phylogenetic tree for 280 Rhamnaceae species, estimated divergence times using eight fossil calibrations, and used Bayesian methods and simulations to test for differences in diversification rates. Rhamnaceae lineages in MTEs generally show higher diversification rates than elsewhere, but speciation and extinction dynamics show a pattern of continent‐dependence. We detected high speciation and extinction rates in California and significantly lower extinction rates in the Cape and Western Australia. The independent colonization of four of five MTEs may have occurred conterminously in the Oligocene/Early Miocene, but colonization of the Mediterranean Basin happened later, in the Late Miocene. This suggests that the in situ radiations of these clades were initiated before the onset of winter rainfall in these regions. These results indicate independent evolutionary histories of Rhamnaceae in MTEs, possibly related to the intensity of climate oscillations and the geological history of the regions.     

Diversity and disparity through time in the adaptive radiation of Antarctic notothenioid fishes

According to theory, adaptive radiation is triggered by ecological opportunity that can arise through the colonization of new habitats, the extinction of antagonists or the origin of key innovations. In the course of an adaptive radiation, diversification and morphological evolution are expected to slow down after an initial phase of rapid adaptation to vacant ecological niches, followed by speciation. Such ‘early bursts’ of diversification are thought to occur because niche space becomes increasingly filled over time. The diversification of Antarctic notothenioid fishes into over 120 species has become one of the prime examples of adaptive radiation in the marine realm and has likely been triggered by an evolutionary key innovation in the form of the emergence of antifreeze glycoproteins. Here, we test, using a novel time‐calibrated phylogeny of 49 species and five traits that characterize notothenioid body size and shape as well as buoyancy adaptations and habitat preferences, whether the notothenioid adaptive radiation is compatible with an early burst scenario. Extensive Bayesian model comparison shows that phylogenetic age estimates are highly dependent on model choice and that models with unlinked gene trees are generally better supported and result in younger age estimates. We find strong evidence for elevated diversification rates in Antarctic notothenioids compared to outgroups, yet no sign of rate heterogeneity in the course of the radiation, except that the notothenioid family Artedidraconidae appears to show secondarily elevated diversification rates. We further observe an early burst in trophic morphology, suggesting that the notothenioid radiation proceeds in stages similar to other prominent examples of adaptive radiation.     

ORIGIN AND DIVERSIFICATION OF THE CALIFORNIA FLORA: RE‐EXAMINING CLASSIC HYPOTHESES WITH MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES

The California Floristic Province exhibits one of the richest floras on the planet, with more than 5500 native plant species, approximately 40% of which are endemic. Despite its impressive diversity and the attention it has garnered from ecologists and evolutionary biologists, historical causes of species richness and endemism in California remain poorly understood. Using a phylogenetic analysis of 16 angiosperm clades, each containing California natives in addition to species found only outside California, we show that CA's current biodiversity primarily results from low extinction rates, as opposed to elevated speciation or immigration rates. Speciation rates in California were lowest among Arcto‐Tertiary lineages (i.e., those colonizing California from the north, during the Tertiary), but extinction rates were universally low across California native plants of all historical, geographic origins. In contrast to long‐accepted ideas, we find that California diversification rates were generally unaffected by the onset of the Mediterranean climate. However, the Mediterranean climate coincided with immigration of many desert species, validating one previous hypothesis regarding origins of CA's plant diversity. This study implicates topographic complexity and climatic buffering as key, long‐standing features of CA's landscape favoring plant species persistence and diversification, and highlights California as an important refuge under changing climates.     

Estimating diversification rates from phylogenetic information

Patterns of species richness reflect the balance between speciation and extinction over the evolutionary history of life. These processes are influenced by the size and geographical complexity of regions, conditions of the environment, and attributes of individuals and species. Diversity within clades also depends on age and thus the time available for accumulating species. Estimating rates of diversification is key to understanding how these factors have shaped patterns of species richness. Several approaches to calculating both relative and absolute rates of speciation and extinction within clades are based on phylogenetic reconstructions of evolutionary relationships. As the size and quality of phylogenies increases, these approaches will find broader application. However, phylogeny reconstruction fosters a perceptual bias of continual increase in species richness, and the analysis of primarily large clades produces a data selection bias. Recognizing these biases will encourage the development of more realistic models of diversification and the regulation of species richness.     

Terrestrialization, miniaturization and rates of diversification in African puddle frogs (Anura: Phrynobatrachidae)

Terrestrialization, the evolution of non-aquatic oviposition, and miniaturization, the evolution of tiny adult body size, are recurring trends in amphibian evolution, but the relationships among the traits that characterize these phenomena are not well understood. Furthermore, these traits have been identified as possible "key innovations" that are predicted to increase rates of speciation in those lineages in which they evolve. We examine terrestrialization and miniaturization in sub-Saharan puddle frogs (Phrynobatrachidae) in a phylogenetic context to investigate the relationship between adaptation and diversification through time. We use relative dating techniques to ascertain if character trait shifts are associated with increased diversification rates, and we evaluate the likelihood that a single temporal event can explain the evolution of those traits. Results indicate alternate reproductive modes evolved independently in Phrynobatrachus at least seven times, including terrestrial deposition of eggs and terrestrial, non-feeding larvae. These shifts towards alternate reproductive modes are not linked to a common temporal event. Contrary to the "key innovations" hypothesis, clades that exhibit alternate reproductive modes have lower diversification rates than those that deposit eggs aquatically. Adult habitat, pedal webbing and body size have no effect on diversification rates. Though these traits putatively identified as key innovations for Phrynobatrachus do not seem to be associated with increased speciation rates, they may still provide opportunities to extend into new niches, thus increasing overall diversity.     

Estimating diversification rates for higher taxa: BAMM can give problematic estimates of rates and rate shifts

Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro‐evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method‐of‐moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts.     

Do key innovations unlock diversification? A case-study on the morphological and ecological impact of pharyngognathy in acanthomorph fishes

Key innovations may allow lineages access to new resources and facilitate the invasion of new adaptive zones, potentially influencing diversification patterns. Many studies have focused on the impact of key innovations on speciation rates, but far less is known about how they influence phenotypic rates and patterns of ecomorphological diversification. We use the repeated evolution of pharyngognathy within acanthomorph fishes, a commonly cited key innovation, as a case study to explore the predictions of key innovation theory. Specifically, we investigate whether transitions to pharyngognathy led to shifts in the rate of phenotypic evolution, as well as shifts and/or expansion in the occupation of morphological and dietary space, using a dataset of 8 morphological traits measured across 3,853 species of Acanthomorpha. Analyzing the 6 evolutionarily independent pharyngognathous clades together, we found no evidence to support pharyngognathy as a key innovation; however, comparisons between individual pharyngognathous lineages and their sister clades did reveal some consistent patterns. In morphospace, most pharyngognathous clades cluster in areas that correspond to deeper-bodied morphologies relative to their sister clades, while occupying greater areas in dietary space that reflects a more diversified diet. Additionally, both Cichlidae and Labridae exhibited higher univariate rates of phenotypic evolution compared with their closest relatives. However, few of these results were exceptional relative to our null models. Our results suggest that transitions to pharyngognathy may only be advantageous when combined with additional ecological or intrinsic factors, illustrating the importance of accounting for lineage-specific effects when testing key innovation hypotheses. Moreover, the challenges we experienced formulating informative comparisons, despite the ideal evolutionary scenario of multiple independent evolutionary origins of pharyngognathous clades, illustrates the complexities involved in quantifying the impact of key innovations. Given the issues of lineage specific effects and rate heterogeneity at macroevolutionary scales we observed, we suggest a reassessment of the expected impacts of key innovations may be warranted.     

The role of frugivory in the diversification of bats in the Neotropics

Aim Ecological interactions are among the most important biotic factors influencing the processes of speciation and extinction. Our aim was to test whether diversification rates of New World Noctilionoidea bats are associated with specialization for frugivory, and how this pattern differs between the mainland and the West Indies. Location The New World. Methods We reconstructed a time‐calibrated molecular phylogenetic hypothesis for the New World genera of the superfamily Noctilionoidea. We compiled data on diet, morphology, geographical distribution and number of ecoregions in which each genus occurs. Then, using the phylogenetic tree constructed, we tested whether diversification was driven by diet (animalivorous and sanguinivorous versus nectarivorous and frugivorous) and specialization for frugivory. Afterwards, we conducted phylogenetic comparative analyses to identify correlates of species richness and net diversification rates. Results The diversification rate was higher in mutualistic than in antagonistic clades in mainland and Antillean biogeographical scenarios, but only strictly frugivorous clades showed a markedly higher diversification rate than the rest of the genera. Geographical range and number of ecoregions were positively associated with species richness and diversification rate in continental and insular lineages. Lower body mass, lower forearm length and specialization for frugivory were significantly positively correlated with higher diversification rates in continental lineages, whereas these parameters were negatively correlated in Antillean lineages. Main conclusions The direction of the relationship of intrinsic factors (specialization for frugivory and body size) with diversification of noctilionoid bats depends on the biogeographical context, whereas the direction of the relationship of extrinsic factors (geographical range and number of ecoregions) with diversification is consistent in both mainland and the West Indian lineages.     

Evolution and the latitudinal diversity gradient: speciation, extinction and biogeography

A latitudinal gradient in biodiversity has existed since before the time of the dinosaurs, yet how and why this gradient arose remains unresolved. Here we review two major hypotheses for the origin of the latitudinal diversity gradient. The time and area hypothesis holds that tropical climates are older and historically larger, allowing more opportunity for diversification. This hypothesis is supported by observations that temperate taxa are often younger than, and nested within, tropical taxa, and that diversity is positively correlated with the age and area of geographical regions. The diversification rate hypothesis holds that tropical regions diversify faster due to higher rates of speciation (caused by increased opportunities for the evolution of reproductive isolation, or faster molecular evolution, or the increased importance of biotic interactions), or due to lower extinction rates. There is phylogenetic evidence for higher rates of diversification in tropical clades, and palaeontological data demonstrate higher rates of origination for tropical taxa, but mixed evidence for latitudinal differences in extinction rates. Studies of latitudinal variation in incipient speciation also suggest faster speciation in the tropics. Distinguishing the roles of history, speciation and extinction in the origin of the latitudinal gradient represents a major challenge to future research.     

Multiple continental radiations and correlates of diversification in Lupinus (Leguminosae): testing for key innovation with incomplete taxon sampling

Replicate radiations provide powerful comparative systems to address questions about the interplay between opportunity and innovation in driving episodes of diversification and the factors limiting their subsequent progression. However, such systems have been rarely documented at intercontinental scales. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis of multiple radiations in the genus Lupinus (Leguminosae), which exhibits some of the highest known rates of net diversification in plants. Given that incomplete taxon sampling, background extinction, and lineage-specific variation in diversification rates can confound macroevolutionary inferences regarding the timing and mechanisms of cladogenesis, we used Bayesian relaxed clock phylogenetic analyses as well as MEDUSA and BiSSE birth-death likelihood models of diversification, to evaluate the evolutionary patterns of lineage accumulation in Lupinus. We identified 3 significant shifts to increased rates of net diversification (r) relative to background levels in the genus (r = 0.18-0.48 lineages/myr). The primary shift occurred approximately 4.6 Ma (r = 0.48-1.76) in the montane regions of western North America, followed by a secondary shift approximately 2.7 Ma (r = 0.89-3.33) associated with range expansion and diversification of allopatrically distributed sister clades in the Mexican highlands and Andes. We also recovered evidence for a third independent shift approximately 6.5 Ma at the base of a lower elevation eastern South American grassland and campo rupestre clade (r = 0.36-1.33). Bayesian ancestral state reconstructions and BiSSE likelihood analyses of correlated diversification indicated that increased rates of speciation are strongly associated with the derived evolution of perennial life history and invasion of montane ecosystems. Although we currently lack hard evidence for "replicate adaptive radiations" in the sense of convergent morphological and ecological trajectories among species in different clades, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that iteroparity functioned as an adaptive key innovation, providing a mechanism for range expansion and rapid divergence in upper elevation regions across much of the New World.     

MORPHOLOGICAL RATES OF ANGIOSPERM SEED SIZE EVOLUTION

The evolution of seed size among angiosperms reflects their ecological diversification in a complex fitness landscape of life‐history strategies. The lineages that have evolved seeds beyond the upper and lower boundaries that defined nonflowering seed plants since the Paleozoic are more dispersed across the angiosperm phylogeny than would be expected under a neutral model of phenotypic evolution. Morphological rates of seed size evolution estimated for 40 clades based on 17,375 species ranged from 0.001 (Garryales) to 0.207 (Malvales). Comparative phylogenetic analysis indicated that morphological rates are not associated with the clade's seed size but are negatively correlated with the clade's position in the overall distribution of angiosperm seed sizes; clades with seed sizes closer to the angiosperm mean had significantly higher morphological rates than clades with extremely small or extremely large seeds. Likewise, per‐clade taxonomic diversification rates are not associated with the seed size of the clade but with where the clade falls within the angiosperm seed size distribution. These results suggest that evolutionary rates (morphological and taxonomic) are elevated in densely occupied regions of the seed morphospace relative to lineages whose ecophenotypic innovations have moved them toward the edges.     

Larger brains spur species diversification in birds

Evidence is accumulating that species traits can spur their evolutionary diversification by influencing niche shifts, range expansions, and extinction risk. Previous work has shown that larger brains (relative to body size) facilitate niche shifts and range expansions by enhancing behavioral plasticity but whether larger brains also promote evolutionary diversification is currently backed by insufficient evidence. We addressed this gap by combining a brain size dataset for >1900 avian species worldwide with estimates of diversification rates based on two conceptually different phylogenetic‐based approaches. We found consistent evidence that lineages with larger brains (relative to body size) have diversified faster than lineages with relatively smaller brains. The best supported trait‐dependent model suggests that brain size primarily affects diversification rates by increasing speciation rather than decreasing extinction rates. In addition, we found that the effect of relatively brain size on species‐level diversification rate is additive to the effect of other intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Altogether, our results highlight the importance of brain size as an important factor in evolution and reinforce the view that intrinsic features of species have the potential to influence the pace of evolution.     

ABSOLUTE DIVERSIFICATION RATES IN ANGIOSPERM CLADES

Abstract The extraordinary contemporary species richness and ecological predominance of flowering plants (angiosperms) are even more remarkable when considering the relatively recent onset of their evolutionary diversification. We examine the evolutionary diversification of angiosperms and the observed differential distribution of species in angiosperm clades by estimating the rate of diversification for angiosperms as a whole and for a large set of angiosperm clades. We also identify angiosperm clades with a standing diversity that is either much higher or lower than expected, given the estimated background diversification rate. Recognition of angiosperm clades, the phylogenetic relationships among them, and their taxonomic composition are based on an empirical compilation of primary phylogenetic studies. By making an integrative and critical use of the paleobotanical record, we obtain reasonably secure approximations for the age of a large set of angiosperm clades. Diversification was modeled as a stochastic, time‐homogeneous birth‐and‐death process that depends on the diversification rate (r) and the relative extinction rate (∈). A statistical analysis of the birth and death process was then used to obtain 95% confidence intervals for the expected number of species through time in a clade that diversifies at a rate equal to that of angiosperms as a whole. Confidence intervals were obtained for stem group and for crown group ages in the absence of extinction (∈= 0.0) and under a high relative extinction rate (∈= 0.9). The standing diversity of angiosperm clades was then compared to expected species diversity according to the background rate of diversification, and, depending on their placement with respect to the calculated confidence intervals, exceedingly species‐rich or exceedingly species‐poor clades were identified. The rate of diversification for angiosperms as a whole ranges from 0.077 (∈= 0.9) to 0.089 (∈= 0.0) net speciation events per million years. Ten clades fall above the confidence intervals of expected species diversity, and 13 clades were found to be unexpectedly species poor. The phylogenetic distribution of clades with an exceedingly high number of species suggests that traits that confer high rates of diversification evolved independently in different instances and do not characterize the angiosperms as a whole.     

Primate diversification inferred from phylogenies and fossils

Biodiversity arises from the balance between speciation and extinction. Fossils record the origins and disappearance of organisms, and the branching patterns of molecular phylogenies allow estimation of speciation and extinction rates, but the patterns of diversification are frequently incongruent between these two data sources. I tested two hypotheses about the diversification of primates based on ～600 fossil species and 90% complete phylogenies of living species: (1) diversification rates increased through time; (2) a significant extinction event occurred in the Oligocene. Consistent with the first hypothesis, analyses of phylogenies supported increasing speciation rates and negligible extinction rates. In contrast, fossils showed that while speciation rates increased, speciation and extinction rates tended to be nearly equal, resulting in zero net diversification. Partially supporting the second hypothesis, the fossil data recorded a clear pattern of diversity decline in the Oligocene, although diversification rates were near zero. The phylogeny supported increased extinction ～34 Ma, but also elevated extinction ～10 Ma, coinciding with diversity declines in some fossil clades. The results demonstrated that estimates of speciation and extinction ignoring fossils are insufficient to infer diversification and information on extinct lineages should be incorporated into phylogenetic analyses.