Consensus,uncertainties and challenges for perennial bioenergy crops and land use

Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land‐use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost‐effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence‐based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land‐use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land‐use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life‐cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.     

Carbon sequestration potential in European croplands has been overestimated

Yearly, per‐area carbon sequestration rates are used to estimate mitigation potentials by comparing types and areas of land management in 1990 and 2000 and projected to 2010, for the European Union (EU)‐15 and for four country‐level case studies for which data are available: UK, Sweden, Belgium and Finland. Because cropland area is decreasing in these countries (except for Belgium), and in most European countries there are no incentives in place to encourage soil carbon sequestration, carbon sequestration between 1990 and 2000 was small or negative in the EU‐15 and all case study countries. Belgium has a slightly higher estimate for carbon sequestration than the other countries examined. This is at odds with previous reports of decreasing soil organic carbon stocks in Flanders. For all countries except Belgium, carbon sequestration is predicted to be negligible or negative by 2010, based on extrapolated trends, and is small even in Belgium. The only trend in agriculture that may be enhancing carbon stocks on croplands at present is organic farming, and the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Previous studies have focused on the potential for carbon sequestration and have shown quite significant potential. This study, which examines the sequestration likely to occur by 2010, suggests that the potential will not be realized. Without incentives for carbon sequestration in the future, cropland carbon sequestration under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol will not be an option in EU‐15.     

Initial soil C and land‐use history determine soil C sequestration under perennial bioenergy crops

In the UK and other temperate regions, short rotation coppice (SRC) and Miscanthus x giganteus (Miscanthus) are two of the leading ‘second‐generation’ bioenergy crops. Grown specifically as a low‐carbon (C) fossil fuel replacement, calculations of the climate mitigation provided by these bioenergy crops rely on accurate data. There are concerns that uncertainty about impacts on soil C stocks of transitions from current agricultural land use to these bioenergy crops could lead to either an under‐ or overestimate of their climate mitigation potential. Here, for locations across mainland Great Britain (GB), a paired‐site approach and a combination of 30‐cm‐ and 1‐m‐deep soil sampling were used to quantify impacts of bioenergy land‐use transitions on soil C stocks in 41 commercial land‐use transitions; 12 arable to SRC, 9 grasslands to SRC, 11 arable to Miscanthus and 9 grasslands to Miscanthus. Mean soil C stocks were lower under both bioenergy crops than under the grassland controls but only significant at 0–30 cm. Mean soil C stocks at 0–30 cm were 33.55 ± 7.52 Mg C ha^?1 and 26.83 ± 8.08 Mg C ha^?1 lower under SRC (P = 0.004) and Miscanthus plantations (P = 0.001), respectively. Differences between bioenergy crops and arable controls were not significant in either the 30‐cm or 1‐m soil cores and smaller than for transitions from grassland. No correlation was detected between change in soil C stock and bioenergy crop age (time since establishment) or soil texture. Change in soil C stock was, however, negatively correlated with the soil C stock in the original land use. We suggest, therefore, that selection of sites for bioenergy crop establishment with lower soil C stocks, most often under arable land use, is the most likely to result in increased soil C stocks.     

On the global limits of bioenergy and land use for climate change mitigation

Across energy, agricultural and forestry landscapes, the production of biomass for energy has emerged as a controversial driver of land‐use change. We present a novel, simple methodology, to probe the potential global sustainability limits of bioenergy over time for energy provision and climate change mitigation using a complex‐systems approach for assessing land‐use dynamics. Primary biomass that could provide between 70 EJ year^?1 and 360 EJ year^?1, globally, by 2050 was simulated in the context of different land‐use futures, food diet patterns and climate change mitigation efforts. Our simulations also show ranges of potential greenhouse gas emissions for agriculture, forestry and other land uses by 2050, including not only above‐ground biomass‐related emissions, but also from changes in soil carbon, from as high as 24 GtCO₂eq year^?1 to as low as minus 21 GtCO₂eq year^?1, which would represent a significant source of negative emissions. Based on the modelling simulations, the discussions offer novel insights about bioenergy as part of a broader integrated system. Whilst there are sustainability limits to the scale of bioenergy provision, they are dynamic over time, being responsive to land management options deployed worldwide.     

Carbon sequestration under Miscanthus: a study of 13C distribution in soil aggregates

The growing of bioenergy crops has been widely suggested as a key strategy in mitigating anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. However, the full mitigation potential of these crops cannot be assessed without taking into account their effect on soil carbon (C) dynamics. Therefore, we analyzed the C dynamics through four soil depths under a 14‐year‐old Miscanthus plantation, established on former arable land. An adjacent arable field was used as a reference site. Combining soil organic matter (SOM) fractionation with ¹³C natural abundance analyses, we were able to trace the fate of Miscanthus‐derived C in various physically protected soil fractions. Integrated through the whole soil profile, the total amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) was higher under Miscanthus than under arable crop, this difference was largely due to the input of new C. The C stock of the macroaggregates (M) under Miscanthus was significantly higher than those in the arable land. Additionally, the C content of the micro‐within macroaggregates (mM) were higher in the Miscanthus soil as compared with the arable soil. Analysis of the intramicroaggregates particulate organic matter (POM) suggested that the increase C storage in mM under Miscanthus was caused by a decrease in disturbance of M. Thus, the difference in C content between the two land use systems is largely caused by soil C storage in physically protected SOM fractions. We conclude that when Miscanthus is planted on former arable land, the resulting increase in soil C storage contributes considerably to its CO₂ mitigation potential.     

Carbon emission and sequestration by agricultural land use: a model study for Europe

A model was developed to calculate carbon fluxes from agricultural soils. The model includes the effects of crop (species, yield and rotation), climate (temperature, rainfall and evapotranspiration) and soil (carbon content and water retention capacity) on the carbon budget of agricultural land. The changes in quality of crop residues and organic material as a result of changes in CO₂ concentration and changed management were not considered in this model. The model was parameterized for several arable crops and grassland. Data from agricultural, meteorological, soil, and land use databases were input to the model, and the model was used to evaluate the effects of different carbon dioxide mitigation measures on soil organic carbon in agricultural areas in Europe. Average carbon fluxes under the business as usual scenario in the 2008–2012 commitment period were estimated at 0.52 tC ha^?1 y^?1 in grassland and ?0.84 tC ha^?1 y^?1 in arable land. Conversion of arable land to grassland yielded a flux of 1.44 tC ha^?1 y^?1. Farm management related activities aiming at carbon sequestration ranged from 0.15 tC ha^?1 y^?1 for the incorporating of straw to 1.50 tC ha^?1 y^?1 for the application of farmyard manure. Reduced tillage yields a positive flux of 0.25 tC ha^?1 y^?1. The indirect effect associated with climate was an order of magnitude lower. A temperature rise of 1 °C resulted in a ?0.05 tC ha^?1 y^?1 change whereas the rising CO₂ concentrations gave a 0.01 tC ha^?1 y^?1 change. Estimates are rendered on a 0.5 × 0.5° grid for the commitment period 2008–2012. The study reveals considerable regional differences in the effectiveness of carbon dioxide abatement measures, resulting from the interaction between crop, soil and climate. Besides, there are substantial differences between the spatial patterns of carbon fluxes that result from different measures.     

Carbon sequestration potential of soils in southeast Germany derived from stable soil organic carbon saturation

Sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in soils through improved management of forest and agricultural land is considered to have high potential for global CO₂ mitigation. However, the potential of soils to sequester soil organic carbon (SOC) in a stable form, which is limited by the stabilization of SOC against microbial mineralization, is largely unknown. In this study, we estimated the C sequestration potential of soils in southeast Germany by calculating the potential SOC saturation of silt and clay particles according to Hassink [Plant and Soil 191 (1997) 77] on the basis of 516 soil profiles. The determination of the current SOC content of silt and clay fractions for major soil units and land uses allowed an estimation of the C saturation deficit corresponding to the long‐term C sequestration potential. The results showed that cropland soils have a low level of C saturation of around 50% and could store considerable amounts of additional SOC. A relatively high C sequestration potential was also determined for grassland soils. In contrast, forest soils had a low C sequestration potential as they were almost C saturated. A high proportion of sites with a high degree of apparent oversaturation revealed that in acidic, coarse‐textured soils the relation to silt and clay is not suitable to estimate the stable C saturation. A strong correlation of the C saturation deficit with temperature and precipitation allowed a spatial estimation of the C sequestration potential for Bavaria. In total, about 395 Mt CO₂‐equivalents could theoretically be stored in A horizons of cultivated soils – four times the annual emission of greenhouse gases in Bavaria. Although achieving the entire estimated C storage capacity is unrealistic, improved management of cultivated land could contribute significantly to CO₂ mitigation. Moreover, increasing SOC stocks have additional benefits with respect to enhanced soil fertility and agricultural productivity.     

Uncertainty analysis of soil organic carbon stock change in Canadian cropland from 1991 to 2001

National estimates of changes in the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) in cropland requires an assessment of uncertainty for accounting and reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. Canada has data sets on SOC stocks in croplands, historical changes in SOC levels due to management practices, and historical changes in the area of land devoted to certain soil management practices. We conducted an analysis of uncertainty of the change in SOC levels due to management practices in Canada from 1991 to 2001 using Monte Carlo analysis and a simple model. Probability distribution functions were determined for each of the inputs of the model, enabling us to assess the uncertainty for the output. The storage rate of SOC in cropland soils of Canada for the 10‐year period ranged from 3.2 to 8.3 Mt C yr^?1 at 95% confidence, with a mean of 5.7 Mt C yr^?1. Approximately 67% (about 3.8 Mt C yr^?1) of the increase in SOC storage in Canada occurred in Saskatchewan where the cropland area under no‐till increased from 10% to 35%, and the area of summer‐fallow declined from 43% to 20% during the study period. The large uncertainty in the effect of no‐till on SOC stock changes in the Gray‐Brown Luvisols of Ontario contributed most to the variance in the model output. If trends in agricultural management continue for the next 10‐year census period, the estimated SOC storage would comprise between 7% and 19% of the gap required to achieve the 6% reduction in 1990 greenhouse gas emission levels for Canada under the Kyoto Protocol.     

Carbon implications of converting cropland to bioenergy crops or forest for climate mitigation: a global assessment

The potential for climate change mitigation by bioenergy crops and terrestrial carbon sinks has been the object of intensive research in the past decade. There has been much debate about whether energy crops used to offset fossil fuel use, or carbon sequestration in forests, would provide the best climate mitigation benefit. Most current food cropland is unlikely to be used for bioenergy, but in many regions of the world, a proportion of cropland is being abandoned, particularly marginal croplands, and some of this land is now being used for bioenergy. In this study, we assess the consequences of land‐use change on cropland. We first identify areas where cropland is so productive that it may never be converted and assess the potential of the remaining cropland to mitigate climate change by identifying which alternative land use provides the best climate benefit: C₄ grass bioenergy crops, coppiced woody energy crops or allowing forest regrowth to create a carbon sink. We do not present this as a scenario of land‐use change – we simply assess the best option in any given global location should a land‐use change occur. To do this, we use global biomass potential studies based on food crop productivity, forest inventory data and dynamic global vegetation models to provide, for the first time, a global comparison of the climate change implications of either deploying bioenergy crops or allowing forest regeneration on current crop land, over a period of 20 years starting in the nominal year of 2000 ad . Globally, the extent of cropland on which conversion to energy crops or forest would result in a net carbon loss, and therefore likely always to remain as cropland, was estimated to be about 420.1 Mha, or 35.6% of the total cropland in Africa, 40.3% in Asia and Russia Federation, 30.8% in Europe‐25, 48.4% in North America, 13.7% in South America and 58.5% in Oceania. Fast growing C₄ grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars are the bioenergy feedstock with the highest climate mitigation potential. Fast growing C₄ grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars provide the best climate mitigation option on ≈485 Mha of cropland worldwide with ~42% of this land characterized by a terrain slope equal or above 20%. If that land‐use change did occur, it would displace ≈58.1 Pg fossil fuel C equivalent (C_eq oil). Woody energy crops such as poplar, willow and Eucalyptus species would be the best option on only 2.4% (≈26.3 Mha) of current cropland, and if this land‐use change occurred, it would displace ≈0.9 Pg C_eq oil. Allowing cropland to revert to forest would be the best climate mitigation option on ≈17% of current cropland (≈184.5 Mha), and if this land‐use change occurred, it would sequester ≈5.8 Pg C in biomass in the 20‐year‐old forest and ≈2.7 Pg C in soil. This study is spatially explicit, so also serves to identify the regional differences in the efficacy of different climate mitigation options, informing policymakers developing regionally or nationally appropriate mitigation actions.     

Modelling the impact of agricultural management on soil carbon stocks at the regional scale: the role of lateral fluxes

Agricultural management has received increased attention over the last decades due to its central role in carbon (C) sequestration and greenhouse gas mitigation. Yet, regardless of the large body of literature on the effects of soil erosion by tillage and water on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in agricultural landscapes, the significance of soil redistribution for the overall C budget and the C sequestration potential of land management options remains poorly quantified. In this study, we explore the role of lateral SOC fluxes in regional scale modelling of SOC stocks under three different agricultural management practices in central Belgium: conventional tillage (CT), reduced tillage (RT) and reduced tillage with additional carbon input (RT+i). We assessed each management scenario twice: using a conventional approach that did not account for lateral fluxes and an alternative approach that included soil erosion‐induced lateral SOC fluxes. The results show that accounting for lateral fluxes increased C sequestration rates by 2.7, 2.5 and 1.5 g C m^?2 yr^?1 for CT, RT and RT+i, respectively, relative to the conventional approach. Soil redistribution also led to a reduction of SOC concentration in the plough layer and increased the spatial variability of SOC stocks, suggesting that C sequestration studies relying on changes in the plough layer may underestimate the soil's C sequestration potential due to the effects of soil erosion. Additionally, lateral C export from cropland was in the same of order of magnitude as C sequestration; hence, the fate of C exported from cropland into other land uses is crucial to determine the ultimate impact of management and erosion on the landscape C balance. Consequently, soil management strategies targeting C sequestration will be most effective when accompanied by measures that reduce soil erosion given that erosion loss can balance potential C uptake, particularly in sloping areas.