Naturally rare versus newly rare: demographic inferences on two timescales inform conservation of Galápagos giant tortoises

Long‐term population history can influence the genetic effects of recent bottlenecks. Therefore, for threatened or endangered species, an understanding of the past is relevant when formulating conservation strategies. Levels of variation at neutral markers have been useful for estimating local effective population sizes (N_e) and inferring whether population sizes increased or decreased over time. Furthermore, analyses of genotypic, allelic frequency, and phylogenetic information can potentially be used to separate historical from recent demographic changes. For 15 populations of Galápagos giant tortoises (Chelonoidis sp.), we used 12 microsatellite loci and DNA sequences from the mitochondrial control region and a nuclear intron, to reconstruct demographic history on shallow (past ~100 generations, ~2500 years) and deep (pre‐Holocene, >10 thousand years ago) timescales. At the deep timescale, three populations showed strong signals of growth, but with different magnitudes and timing, indicating different underlying causes. Furthermore, estimated historical N_e of populations across the archipelago showed no correlation with island age or size, underscoring the complexity of predicting demographic history a priori. At the shallow timescale, all populations carried some signature of a genetic bottleneck, and for 12 populations, point estimates of contemporary N_e were very small (i.e., < 50). On the basis of the comparison of these genetic estimates with published census size data, N_e generally represented ~0.16 of the census size. However, the variance in this ratio across populations was considerable. Overall, our data suggest that idiosyncratic and geographically localized forces shaped the demographic history of tortoise populations. Furthermore, from a conservation perspective, the separation of demographic events occurring on shallow versus deep timescales permits the identification of naturally rare versus newly rare populations; this distinction should facilitate prioritization of management action.     

A ROLE FOR NONADAPTIVE PROCESSES IN PLANT GENOME SIZE EVOLUTION?

Genome sizes vary widely among species, but comprehensive explanations for the emergence of this variation have not been validated. Lynch and Conery (2003) hypothesized that genome expansion is maladaptive, and that lineages with small effective population size (N_e) evolve larger genomes than those with large N_e as a consequence of the lowered efficacy of natural selection in small populations. In addition, mating systems likely affect genome size evolution via effects on both N_e and the spread of transposable elements (TEs). We present a comparative analysis of the effects of N_e and mating system on genome size evolution in seed plants. The dataset includes 205 species with monoploid genome size estimates (corrected for recent polyploidy) ranging from 2Cx = 0.3 to 65.9 pg. The raw data exhibited a strong positive relationship between outcrossing and genome size, a negative relationship between N_e and genome size, but no detectable N_e× outcrossing interaction. In contrast, phylogenetically independent contrast analyses found only a weak relationship between outcrossing and genome size and no relationship between N_e and genome size. Thus, seed plants do not support the Lynch and Conery mechanism of genome size evolution. Further work is needed to disentangle contrasting effects of mating systems on the efficacy of selection and TE transmission.     

Genetic diversity through time and space: diversity and demographic history from natural history specimens and serially sampled contemporary populations of the threatened Gouldian finch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Erythrura gouldiae</Emphasis>)

Declines in population size can compromise the viability of populations by reducing the effective population size (N_e), which may result in loss of genetic diversity and inbreeding. Temporal population genetic data can be a powerful tool for testing the presence and severity of reductions in N_e. The Gouldian finch (Erythrura gouldiae) is a flagship for conservation of Australian monsoonal savanna species. This species underwent severe population declines in the twentieth century due to land use changes associated with European colonization. Microsatellite and mitochondrial genetic data from Gouldian finch samples sourced from natural history collections prior to land use changes were compared with contemporary samples to estimate the severity of decline in effective population size and to detect changes in gene flow. These data show that Gouldian finch decline was not as severe as some sources suggest, and that population genetic connectivity has not changed following land use changes in the twentieth century. Multiple estimators of current N_e using genetic data from consecutive years suggest the Gouldian finch N_e is likely between a few hundred and a few thousand individuals, with some estimates within the range considered of conservation concern. This work has identified the need to genetically characterize populations in Queensland, and to understand critical demographic parameters (e.g. lifespan) in the Gouldian finch. Understanding these factors is vital to further improve genetic estimates of population size, key to the formation of appropriate conservation management of this species.     

Temporal genetic samples indicate small effective population size of the endangered yellow-eyed penguin

There is an increasing awareness that the long-term viability of endemic island populations is negatively affected by genetic factors associated with population bottlenecks and/or persistence at small population size. Here we use contemporary samples and historic museum specimens (collected 1888–1938) to estimate the effective population size (N _e) for the endangered yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) in South Island, New Zealand, and evaluate the genetic concern for this iconic species. The South Island population of M. antipodes—constituting almost half of the species’ census size—is thought to be descended from a small number of founders that reached New Zealand just a few hundred years ago. Despite intensive conservation measures, this population has shown dramatic fluctuations in size over recent decades. We compare estimates of the harmonic mean N _e for this population, obtained using one moment and three likelihood based-temporal methods, including one method that simultaneously estimates migration rate. Evaluation of the N _e estimates reveals a harmonic mean N _e in the low hundreds. Additionally, the inferred low immigration rates (m = 0.003) agree well with contemporary migration rate estimates between the South Island and subantarctic populations of M. antipodes. The low N _e of South Island M. antipodes is likely affected by strong fluctuations in population size, and high variance in reproductive success. These results show that genetic concerns for this population are valid and that the long-term viability of this species may be compromised by reduced adaptive potential.     

Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: there goes the neighborhood

Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (N_e) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating structure, as envisioned by Wright''s concept of neighborhood size (NS), and evaluated performance of a single-sample estimator based on linkage disequilibrium (LD), which provides an estimate of the effective number of parents that produced the sample (N_b). Results illustrate the interacting effects of two phenomena, drift and mixture, that contribute to LD. Samples from areas equal to or smaller than a breeding window produced estimates close to the NS. As the sampling window increased in size to encompass multiple genetic neighborhoods, mixture LD from a two-locus Wahlund effect overwhelmed the reduction in drift LD from incorporating offspring from more parents. As a consequence, never approached the global N_e, even when the geographic scale of sampling was large. Results indicate that caution is needed in applying standard methods for estimating effective size to continuously distributed populations.     

Genetic Variability and Structuring of Arctic Charr (Salvelinus alpinus) Populations in Northern Fennoscandia

Variation in presumably neutral genetic markers can inform us about evolvability, historical effective population sizes and phylogeographic history of contemporary populations. We studied genetic variability in 15 microsatellite loci in six native landlocked Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) populations in northern Fennoscandia, where this species is considered near threatened. We discovered that all populations were genetically highly (mean F _ST ≈ 0.26) differentiated and isolated from each other. Evidence was found for historical, but not for recent population size bottlenecks. Estimates of contemporary effective population size (N _e) ranged from seven to 228 and were significantly correlated with those of historical N _e but not with lake size. A census size (N _C) was estimated to be approximately 300 individuals in a pond (0.14 ha), which exhibited the smallest N _e (i.e. N _e/N _C = 0.02). Genetic variability in this pond and a connected lake is severely reduced, and both genetic and empirical estimates of migration rates indicate a lack of gene flow between them. Hence, albeit currently thriving, some northern Fennoscandian populations appear to be vulnerable to further loss of genetic variability and are likely to have limited capacity to adapt if selection pressures change.     

Genetic evidence of range-wide population declines in an Australian marsupial prior to European settlement

Reconstruction of a species demographic history can be used to investigate impacts of environmental change through time. Australia’s mesic biome experienced massive changes during the Holocene, including climate fluctuations, increased human populations, and European settlement. Using microsatellite data from 202 brush-tailed rock-wallabies (Petrogale penicillata) sampled across the species current geographic range, we investigated gene flow and inferred the demographic history of the species to explore the historical impacts of environmental change on this once wide-ranging marsupial mammal. We found high levels of genetic diversity in all colonies, despite very restricted contemporary gene flow and no sign of historical gene flow. Demographic analyses showed that individual populations have low effective population sizes (N _e?<?200). We identified a major historical decline throughout the species range occurring 10,000–1000 years before present, spanning a period with increased El Niño Southern Oscillation activity, increased human population size and establishment of the dingo population. This major decline pre-dates the European settlement of Australia and so places the species most recent dramatic decline into context, suggesting that brushed-tailed rock-wallabies were inherently vulnerable to major changes to their environment.     

Estimates of linkage disequilibrium and effective population sizes in Chinese Merino (Xinjiang type) sheep by genome-wide SNPs

Knowledge of linkage disequilibrium (LD) is important for effective genome-wide association studies and accurate genomic prediction. Chinese Merino (Xinjiang type) is well-known fine wool sheep breed. However, the extent of LD across the genome remains unexplored. In this study, we calculated autosomal LD based on genome-wide SNPs of 635 Chinese Merino (Xinjiang type) sheep by Illumina Ovine SNP50 BeadChip. A moderate level of LD (r ²?≥?0.25) across the whole genome was observed at short distances of 0–10 kb. Further, the ancestral effective population size (N _e ) was analyzed by extent of LD and found that N _e increased with the increase of generations and declined rapidly within the most recent 50 generations, which is consistent with the history of Chinese Merino sheep breeding, initiated in 1971. We also noted that even when the effective population size was estimated across different single chromosomes, N _e only ranged from 140.36 to 183.33 at five generations in the past, exhibiting a rapid decrease compared with that at ten generations in the past. These results indicated that the genetic diversity in Chinese Merino sheep recently decreased and proper protective measures should be taken to maintain the diversity. Our datasets provided essential genetic information to track molecular variations which potentially contribute to phenotypic variation in Chinese Merino sheep.     

The Effects of Demography and Long-Term Selection on the Accuracy of Genomic Prediction with Sequence Data

The use of dense SNPs to predict the genetic value of an individual for a complex trait is often referred to as “genomic selection” in livestock and crops, but is also relevant to human genetics to predict, for example, complex genetic disease risk. The accuracy of prediction depends on the strength of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and causal mutations. If sequence data were used instead of dense SNPs, accuracy should increase because causal mutations are present, but demographic history and long-term negative selection also influence accuracy. We therefore evaluated genomic prediction, using simulated sequence in two contrasting populations: one reducing from an ancestrally large effective population size (N_e) to a small one, with high LD common in domestic livestock, while the second had a large constant-sized N_e with low LD similar to that in some human or outbred plant populations. There were two scenarios in each population; causal variants were either neutral or under long-term negative selection. For large N_e, sequence data led to a 22% increase in accuracy relative to ∼600K SNP chip data with a Bayesian analysis and a more modest advantage with a BLUP analysis. This advantage increased when causal variants were influenced by negative selection, and accuracy persisted when 10 generations separated reference and validation populations. However, in the reducing N_e population, there was little advantage for sequence even with negative selection. This study demonstrates the joint influence of demography and selection on accuracy of prediction and improves our understanding of how best to exploit sequence for genomic prediction.     

The use of agent-based modelling of genetics in conservation genetics studies

Animal Landscape and Man Simulation System a genetically explicit agent-based model was used to obtain measures for the genetic and demographic status of simulated populations. This investigation aimed to test the applicability of this approach for assessing the effect of environmental perturbations on populations’ temporal and spatial dynamics. This was achieved by assessing how three simple scenarios with increasing degree of environmental disturbance, simulated by populations bottlenecks repeated at different intervals, affected the genetic and demographic characteristics of the simulated population. Model outputs from a simplified landscape scenario concurred with theoretical expectations validating the model in a qualitative way. Differences in medians, means and coefficient of variation of the observed (H_o) and expected heterozygosity (H_e), population census size (N), effective population size (N_e), inbreeding coefficient (F) and N_e/N ratio were observed for simulated populations. Impacts occurred rapidly after simulated bottleneck events and genetic estimates were less variable, and therefore more reliable, than demographic estimates. Precise genetic consequences of the bottlenecks repeated at different intervals, and resulting population perturbations, are a complex balance between effects on population sub-structure, size and founding events. Agent-based models are appropriate tools to simulate these interactions, being sufficiently flexible to mimic real population processes under a range of environmental conditions. Such models incorporating explicit genetics provide a promising new approach to evaluate the impact of environmental changes on genetic composition of populations.     

An empirical test of the estimation of historical effective population size using Drosophila melanogaster

The availability of a large number of high-density markers (SNPs) allows the estimation of historical effective population size (N_e) from linkage disequilibrium between loci. A recent refinement of methods to estimate historical N_e from the recent past has been shown to be rather accurate with simulation data. The method has also been applied to real data for numerous species. However, the simulation data cannot encompass all the complexities of real genomes, and the performance of any estimation method with real data is always uncertain, as the true demography of the populations is not known. Here, we carried out an experimental design with Drosophila melanogaster to test the method with real data following a known demographic history. We used a population maintained in the laboratory with a constant census size of about 2800 individuals and subjected the population to a drastic decline to a size of 100 individuals. After a few generations, the population was expanded back to the previous size and after a few further generations again expanded to twice the initial size. Estimates of historical N_e were obtained with the software GONE both for autosomal and X chromosomes from samples of 17 individuals sequenced for the whole genome. Estimates of the historical effective size were able to infer the patterns of changes that occurred in the populations showing generally good performance of the method. We discuss the limitations of the method and the application of the software carried out so far.     

Low effective population size and survivorship in a grassland grouse

Assessments of census size (N _c) and effective population size (N _e) are necessary for the conservation of species exhibiting population declines. We examined two populations (Oklahoma and New Mexico) of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), a declining lek-breeding bird, in which one population (Oklahoma) has larger clutch size and more nesting attempts per year but lower survival caused by human changes to the landscape. We estimated demographic and genetic estimates of N _e for each population and found that both populations have low N _e estimates with a risk of inbreeding depression. Although Oklahoma females produce a larger number of offspring, the proportion of females successfully reproducing is not higher than in New Mexico. Higher reproductive effort has likely reached a physiological limit in Oklahoma prairie-chickens but has not led to a higher N _e or even a larger N _c than New Mexico. We propose that future conservation efforts focus on maximizing survivorship and decreasing the variance in reproductive success because these factors are more likely than increasing reproductive output alone to yield population persistence in lek-breeding species.     

Trapped within the city: integrating demography,time since isolation and population‐specific traits to assess the genetic effects of urbanization

Urbanization is a severe form of habitat fragmentation that can cause many species to be locally extirpated and many others to become trapped and isolated within an urban matrix. The role of drift in reducing genetic diversity and increasing genetic differentiation is well recognized in urban populations. However, explicit incorporation and analysis of the demographic and temporal factors promoting drift in urban environments are poorly studied. Here, we genotyped 15 microsatellites in 320 fire salamanders from the historical city of Oviedo (Est. 8th century) to assess the effects of time since isolation, demographic history (historical effective population size; N_e) and patch size on genetic diversity, population structure and contemporary N_e. Our results indicate that urban populations of fire salamanders are highly differentiated, most likely due to the recent N_e declines, as calculated in coalescence analyses, concomitant with the urban development of Oviedo. However, urbanization only caused a small loss of genetic diversity. Regression modelling showed that patch size was positively associated with contemporary N_e, while we found only moderate support for the effects of demographic history when excluding populations with unresolved history. This highlights the interplay between different factors in determining current genetic diversity and structure. Overall, the results of our study on urban populations of fire salamanders provide some of the very first insights into the mechanisms affecting changes in genetic diversity and population differentiation via drift in urban environments, a crucial subject in a world where increasing urbanization is forecasted.     

Expansion history and environmental suitability shape effective population size in a plant invasion

The margins of an expanding range are predicted to be challenging environments for adaptation. Marginal populations should often experience low effective population sizes (N_e) where genetic drift is high due to demographic expansion and/or census population size is low due to unfavourable environmental conditions. Nevertheless, invasive species demonstrate increasing evidence of rapid evolution and potential adaptation to novel environments encountered during colonization, calling into question whether significant reductions in N_e are realized during range expansions in nature. Here we report one of the first empirical tests of the joint effects of expansion dynamics and environment on effective population size variation during invasive range expansion. We estimate contemporary values of N_e using rates of linkage disequilibrium among genome‐wide markers within introduced populations of the highly invasive plant Centaurea solstitialis (yellow starthistle) in North America (California, USA), and within native Eurasian populations. As predicted, we find that N_e within the invaded range is positively correlated with both expansion history (time since founding) and habitat quality (abiotic climate). History and climate had independent additive effects with similar effect sizes, indicating an important role for both factors in this invasion. These results support theoretical expectations for the population genetics of range expansion, though whether these processes can ultimately arrest the spread of an invasive species remains an unanswered question.     

Biases in Demographic Modeling Affect Our Understanding of Recent Divergence

Testing among competing demographic models of divergence has become an important component of evolutionary research in model and non-model organisms. However, the effect of unaccounted demographic events on model choice and parameter estimation remains largely unexplored. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate that under realistic divergence scenarios, failure to account for population size (N_e) changes in daughter and ancestral populations leads to strong biases in divergence time estimates as well as model choice. We illustrate these issues reconstructing the recent demographic history of North Sea and Baltic Sea turbots (Scophthalmus maximus) by testing 16 isolation with migration (IM) and 16 secondary contact (SC) scenarios, modeling changes in N_e as well as the effects of linked selection and barrier loci. Failure to account for changes in N_e resulted in selecting SC models with long periods of strict isolation and divergence times preceding the formation of the Baltic Sea. In contrast, models accounting for N_e changes suggest recent (<6 kya) divergence with constant gene flow. We further show how interpreting genomic landscapes of differentiation can help discerning among competing models. For example, in the turbot data, islands of differentiation show signatures of recent selective sweeps, rather than old divergence resisting secondary introgression. The results have broad implications for the study of population divergence by highlighting the potential effects of unmodeled changes in N_e on demographic inference. Tested models should aim at representing realistic divergence scenarios for the target taxa, and extreme caution should always be exercised when interpreting results of demographic modeling.     

Making sense of genetic estimates of effective population size

The last decade has seen an explosion of interest in use of genetic markers to estimate effective population size, N_e. Effective population size is important both theoretically (N_e is a key parameter in almost every aspect of evolutionary biology) and for practical application (N_e determines rates of genetic drift and loss of genetic variability and modulates the effectiveness of selection, so it is crucial to consider in conservation). As documented by Palstra & Fraser ( 2012 ), most of the recent growth in N_e estimation can be attributed to development or refinement of methods that can use a single sample of individuals (the older temporal method requires at least two samples separated in time). As with other population genetic methods, performance of new N_e estimators is typically evaluated with simulated data for a few scenarios selected by the author(s). Inevitably, these initial evaluations fail to fully consider the consequences of violating simplifying assumptions, such as discrete generations, closed populations of constant size and selective neutrality. Subsequently, many researchers studying natural or captive populations have reported estimates of N_e for multiple methods; often these estimates are congruent, but that is not always the case. Because true N_e is rarely known in these empirical studies, it is difficult to make sense of the results when estimates differ substantially among methods. What is needed is a rigorous, comparative analysis under realistic scenarios for which true N_e is known. Recently, Gilbert & Whitlock ( 2015 ) did just that for both single‐sample and temporal methods under a wide range of migration schemes. In the current issue of Molecular Ecology, Wang ( 2016 ) uses simulations to evaluate performance of four single‐sample N_e estimators. In addition to assessing effects of true N_e, sample size, and number of loci, Wang also evaluated performance under changing abundance, physical linkage and genotyping errors, as well as for some alternative life histories (high rates of selfing; haplodiploids). Wang showed that the sibship frequency (SF) and linkage disequilibrium (LD) methods perform dramatically better than the heterozygote excess and molecular coancestry methods under most scenarios (see Fig. 1, modified from figure 2 in Wang 2016 ), and he also concluded that SF is generally more versatile than LD. This article represents a truly Herculean effort, and results should be of considerable value to researchers interested in applying these methods to real‐world situations.     

EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZE AND GENETIC DRIFT IN TRISTYLOUS EICHHORNIA PANICULATA (PONTEDERIACEAE)

Populations of the tristylous, annual Eichhornia paniculata are markedly differentiated with respect to frequency of mating types. This variation is associated with evolutionary changes in mating system, from predominant outcrossing to high self-fertilization. To assess the potential influence of genetic drift acting on this variation, we estimated effective population size in 10 populations from northeastern Brazil using genetic and demographic methods. Effective size (N_e) was inferred from temporal changes in allele frequency at two to eight isozyme loci and also calculated using five demographic variables: 1) the number of flowering individuals (N); 2) temporal fluctuations in N; 3) variance in flower number; 4) frequency of mating types; and 5) selfing rate. Average N_e based on isozyme data was 15.8, range 3.4–70.6, and represented a fraction (mean N_e/N = 0.106) of the census number of individuals (mean N = 762.8; range: 30.5–5,040). Temporal variation in N and variance in flower number each reduced N_e to about a half of N whereas mating type frequencies and selfing rate caused only small reductions in N_e relative to N. All estimates of N_e based on demographic variables were considerably larger than those obtained from genetic data. The two kinds of estimates were in general agreement, however, when all demographic variables were combined into a single measure. Monte Carlo simulations indicated that effective size must be fewer than about 40 for drift to overcome the frequency-dependent selection that maintains the polymorphism for mating type. Applying the average N_e/N value to 167 populations censused in northeastern Brazil indicated that 72% had effective sizes below this number. This suggests that genetic drift is likely to play a dominant role in natural populations of E. paniculata.     

A genetic demographic analysis of Lake Malawi rock‐dwelling cichlids using spatio‐temporal sampling

We estimated the effective population sizes (N_e) and tested for short‐term temporal demographic stability of populations of two Lake Malawi cichlids: Maylandia benetos, a micro‐endemic, and Maylandia zebra, a widespread species found across the lake. We sampled a total of 351 individuals, genotyped them at 13 microsatellite loci and sequenced their mitochondrial D‐loop to estimate genetic diversity, population structure, demographic history and effective population sizes. At the microsatellite loci, genetic diversity was high in all populations. Yet, genetic diversity was relatively low for the sequence data. Microsatellites yielded mean N_e estimates of 481 individuals (±99 SD) for M. benetos and between 597 (±106.3 SD) and 1524 (±483.9 SD) individuals for local populations of M. zebra. The microsatellite data indicated no deviations from mutation–drift equilibrium. Maylandia zebra was further found to be in migration–drift equilibrium. Temporal fluctuations in allele frequencies were limited across the sampling period for both species. Bayesian Skyline analyses suggested a recent expansion of M. zebra populations in line with lake‐level fluctuations, whereas the demographic history of M. benetos could only be estimated for the very recent past. Divergence time estimates placed the origin of M. benetos within the last 100 ka after the refilling of the lake and suggested that it split off the sympatric M. zebra population. Overall, our data indicate that micro‐endemics and populations in less favourable habitats have smaller N_e, indicating that drift may play an important role driving their divergence. Yet, despite small population sizes, high genetic variation can be maintained.     

GENOME SIZE IS NOT CORRELATED WITH EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZE IN THE ORYZA SPECIES

Genome sizes vary widely across the tree of life and the evolutionary mechanism underlined remains largely unknown. Lynch and Conery (2003) proposed that evolution of genome complexity was driven mainly by nonadaptive stochastic forces and presented the observation that genome size was negatively correlated with effective population size (N_e) as a strong support for their hypothesis. Here, we analyzed the relation between N_e and genome size for 10 diploid Oryza species that showed about fourfold genome size variation. Using sequences of more than 20 nuclear genes, we estimated N_e for each species after correction for the effects of demography and heterogeneity of mutation rates among loci and species. Pairwise comparisons and correlation analyses did not detect a negative relationship between N_e and genome size despite about 6.5‐fold interspecies N_e variation. By calculating phylogenetically independent contrasts (PICs) for N_e, we repeated correlation analysis and did not find any correlation between N_e and genome size. These observations suggest that the genome size variation in the Oryza species cannot be explained simply by the effect of effective population size.     

Effects of population characteristics and structure on estimates of effective population size in a house sparrow metapopulation

Effective population size (N_e) is a key parameter to understand evolutionary processes and the viability of endangered populations as it determines the rate of genetic drift and inbreeding. Low N_e can lead to inbreeding depression and reduced population adaptability. In this study, we estimated contemporary N_e using genetic estimators (LDNE, ONeSAMP, MLNE and CoNe) as well as a demographic estimator in a natural insular house sparrow metapopulation. We investigated whether population characteristics (population size, sex ratio, immigration rate, variance in population size and population growth rate) explained variation within and among populations in the ratio of effective to census population size (N_e/N_c). In general, N_e/N_c ratios increased with immigration rates. Genetic N_e was much larger than demographic N_e, probably due to a greater effect of immigration on genetic than demographic processes in local populations. Moreover, although estimates of genetic N_e seemed to track N_c quite well, the genetic N_e‐estimates were often larger than N_c within populations. Estimates of genetic N_e for the metapopulation were however within the expected range (<N_c). Our results suggest that in fragmented populations, even low levels of gene flow may have important consequences for the interpretation of genetic estimates of N_e. Consequently, further studies are needed to understand how N_e estimated in local populations or the total metapopulation relates to actual rates of genetic drift and inbreeding.